The Cycling Betting Thread

[mutschi]

New to Betting: Can anyone recommed good betting web-page?

Hi there,

want to give betting a try. What are your favorite web-pages for betting and why? Any other tips?

Cheers

Mutschi

 

[manafana]

i do some previews on my blog hopefully some bets for the big race at weekend lombardy.

Looked to be some good racing in their one day races during week hope the big one is half as good.

 

[MADRAZO]

Hi there,

want to give betting a try. What are your favorite web-pages for betting and why? Any other tips?

Cheers

Mutschi

Betfair is a must for the highest odds on winnergames

Bet365 clearly has the best coverage inplay and also has the best pregame offers in terms of offered markets, but they also make the fewest mistakes, but its a must to use still, also as its often the first bookie out with odds

Pinnacle can be used to extend limits and perhaps get higher odds as they always copies all of bet365s matchups

Sportingbet is pretty good too with their own odds and some mistakes despite also having a fairly good compiler

Unibet and Ladbrokes has half copies and half their own odds and makes a lot of errors in their own odds

Paddypower and Betvictor has clueless compilers and makes lots of huge errors, but closes down accounts quickly, but there is no reason not to win what you can before that

I think those will be the best places for you to start out

 

[iZnoGouD]

is anyone betting for TDU?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Unibet has some interesting season bets:

The same rider to win both RVV and PR @ 7
The same rider to win both AGR and FW @ 8
The same rider to win both AGR and LBL @ 8
The same rider to win both FW and LBL @ 9
O 3.5 Italians in top 10 in MSR @ 1.95
The same rider to win both ITTs in the Tour @ 10.

Any thoughts on these?

 

[Ferminal]

I'd stay away from them, they are all below the value you would get betting on the races themselves. Except maybe the Ardennes ones if Gilbert has a great start to the season.

e.g. Say Boonen and Cancellara are 4.00 for Ronde, you bet equal units on them both so you end up with double your money (assuming one of them wins). Then roll the money into the win the next weekend at 3.50 and you end up with your original 7.00 but with the advantage of not betting 3 months in advance.

 

[Ferminal]

I'd actually consider the M-SR one purely on history, last time the unders won was 2007 although no Ballan and an ageing Petacchi. With the amount of **** happening in Italy at the moment too...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'd stay away from them, they are all below the value you would get betting on the races themselves. Except maybe the Ardennes ones if Gilbert has a great start to the season.

e.g. Say Boonen and Cancellara are 4.00 for Ronde, you bet equal units on them both so you end up with double your money (assuming one of them wins). Then roll the money into the win the next weekend at 3.50 and you end up with your original 7.00 but with the advantage of not betting 3 months in advance.

I see your point, but you forget that if neither Cancellara nor Boonen wins RVV I lose double the amount I would have had I chosen "my" bet instead. Also your suggestion requires that you can get odds 4 at both Cancellara and Boonen for RVV (which I doubt) and then odds 3.5 on the winner for PR (which I doubt even more).

Also I get the added benefit of having the RVV winner to win PR at odds 7 even if it's not Boonen or Cancellara. Say Pozzato wins RVV for instance, I'd have him as the winner of PR at odds 7 which I can then keep or sell to limit my losses.

 

[Ferminal]

I see your point, but you forget that if neither Cancellara nor Boonen wins RVV I lose double the amount I would have had I chosen "my" bet instead. Also your suggestion requires that you can get odds 4 at both Cancellara and Boonen for RVV (which I doubt) and then odds 3.5 on the winner for PR (which I doubt even more).

Also I get the added benefit of having the RVV winner to win PR at odds 7 even if it's not Boonen or Cancellara. Say Pozzato wins RVV for instance, I'd have him as the winner of PR at odds 7 which I can then keep or sell to limit my losses.

1 * 7 = 7
[0.5 * 4 * 3.5 = 7] twice

Cancellara was favourite at 4-4.50 in 2011, at least until E3. They were both somewhere around that for last year from memory although I'm not certain. The lowest combined you'd get is 1.85 but shopping around I'd be pretty confident in finding even money. Roubaix odds I'm not sure but they depend on how Ronde is run not necessarily the winner. Cancellara could be stronger but lose the sprint.

Of course this way there are options too, you can hold your money or back someone else at half way.

The best value is if one of them does a collarbone, you would have made good money on it last year.

You might end up slightly ahead but for me I need significant value to bet on futures in cycling. I guess come April we can compare and see which way wins

 

[Hugo Koblet]

1 * 7 = 7
[0.5 * 4 * 3.5 = 7] twice

Cancellara was favourite at 4-4.50 in 2011, at least until E3. They were both somewhere around that for last year from memory although I'm not certain. The lowest combined you'd get is 1.85 but shopping around I'd be pretty confident in finding even money. Roubaix odds I'm not sure but they depend on how Ronde is run not necessarily the winner. Cancellara could be stronger but lose the sprint.

Of course this way there are options too, you can hold your money or back someone else at half way.

The best value is if one of them does a collarbone, you would have made good money on it last year.

You might end up slightly ahead but for me I need significant value to bet on futures in cycling. I guess come April we can compare and see which way wins

Oh yeah, of course. Sorry for my lack of mathematical skills

 

[karaev]

I've found some intersting odds for some riders to win any stage in Tour de France 2013.

Pinot to win any stage is at 6.00

Kittel to never win 2.25

Chavanel to win at 3.40

Hoogerland at 9.00

Gesink at 3.50

Rolland at 3.75

Froome 2.08

Casar 7.50

Valverde 1.45

Voeckler 2.15

Gilbert at 2.25

Also Froome and Contador to finish in top 3 at 2.45 odds and Henao to win any stage in Vuelta 2013 at 5.50 odds.

Im pretty excited about Pinot and Kittel(Greipel and Cav looks too strong)...oh and also Henao one looks pretty good.

Any thoughts on any of this?

 

[Gloin22]

I've found some intersting odds for some riders to win any stage in Tour de France 2013.

Pinot to win any stage is at 6.00

Kittel to never win 2.25

Chavanel to win at 3.40

Hoogerland at 9.00

Gesink at 3.50

Rolland at 3.75

Froome 2.08

Casar 7.50

Valverde 1.45

Voeckler 2.15

Gilbert at 2.25

Also Froome and Contador to finish in top 3 at 2.45 odds and Henao to win any stage in Vuelta 2013 at 5.50 odds.

Im pretty excited about Pinot and Kittel(Greipel and Cav looks too strong)...oh and also Henao one looks pretty good.

Any thoughts on any of this?

Pinot is definitely nice option, however he can get injured somehwere so it's bit risky to bet right now.

Kittel will be better come Tour and on flat stages Tour has plenty, I think Kittel can win a stage somwhere being lucky, it's 50 - 50 though.

The last one I am pretty confident about. Henao should definitely win a stage at Vuelta.

Chavanel I think is doing giro instead of Tour this year Those are preety goods odds on Froome considering Valverde is lower imo.

 

[karaev]

Some intersting odds for Tour of Qatar winner

17.00 Degenkolb

41.00 Modollo

3.75 Cav

5.50 Hagen

101.0 Breaschel

51.00 Bouhani

101.0 Viviani

Any sugestions for who I should spend my money on?

Also some stage 1 duels look good like Guardini 2.60 odss to beat Viviani

Phinney to beat Gearint 1.95

Bennati 2.10 to beat Haussler

Hagen 2.50/Degenkolb 1.50

Cav1.30 /Modolo 3.40

This are the most intersting but here are the complete list http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=1088164932 and http://ro.unibet.com/betting#/group/2000053006/category/1235

 

[the asian]

Degenkolb at 17.00 looks tasty. Bennati @ 33/1 is also worth putting your money on.

 

[The Hitch]

Had a look at this betfair ting people talk about. cant find a cycling section on there at all.

Also what is Ryo talking about when he says he will lay on Cav on a race he doesnt expect cav to win?

Cheers.

 

[Ferminal]

They only put races up a day or so before. Some races they randomly don't do either.

It's an open market so you can chose to back or lay (bet on them to lose) at any price you like, just gotta find someone stupid enough to take your odds.

 

[Parrulo]

betfair works sort of like a stock market as you buy and sell odds as they become more or less valuable (more or less probable)

you also can bet against something happening at your responsibility.

like for example tomorrow you can bet 50€ against froome and if froome doesn't win you win 50€ but if he does win you have to pay those 50€* the winning margin on the winning odd for froome. so if froome was @3 to win you would have to pay 50*2 (the winning margin)

problem with betfair for cycling is that the market is small cept probably for the tour.

today 1 hour before the start of the read vs man u game, the market had already moved 9mil €.

 

[Parrulo]

anyway i mostly use bet365.

i have some money on contador for tomorrow and some on costa and keldermen for podium places in algarve.

 

[The Hitch]

Yeah i put a fiver on The Great One for tomorrow ( which for.me is a huge sum) since i always bet small. I figured these are as good odds for him as you are.likely to get for an mtf this season.

 

[Ferminal]

anyway i mostly use bet365.

i have some money on contador for tomorrow and some on costa and keldermen for podium places in algarve.

Be brave and get on Menchov

 

[wheelie1977]

Today I'm on Froome in the hope more than anything else that he's been waiting for this stage! i'm not sure can i reference my free blog wheeliebets but reasons are available to view there everyday.

My bets for the Algarve were

Stage 1
Boeckmans 22/1

Overall Classification
Podium Finish for

Rui Costa 7/4
Kwiatowski 11/4

 

[manafana]

Be brave and get on Menchov

Menchov never shows early season form, not in recent years anyway.

Rui Costa should do well in Portugal.

Also believe contador should win today.

 

[Ferminal]

lol Froome into 3.25 to win the Tour after that.

I took him at 3.75 when we thought Contador was doing the Giro which seemed like a pointless decision as he went back to that after Contador made up his mind. Can't see him drifting back up now though.

 

[manafana]

wouldnt say yesterday showed too much about contador v froome really, only that froome is healthy this season.

cant belive i missed the price on the field against cavendish, have missed pinnacle not betting on algarve this week

 

[wirral]

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