The Cycling Betting Thread

[Caruut]

Anyone starting to think about the classics? EBH has pretty long odds in MSR, P-R and RVV.

 

[The Hitch]

Anyone starting to think about the classics? EBH has pretty long odds in MSR, P-R and RVV.

For a reason.

 

[Caruut]

For a reason.

He'll come good someday

 

[The Hitch]

Don't know.if they still have it but bv had a - which team will.win the world.tour, bet. Movistar was not bad at 16-1 imo.

 

[Caruut]

I don't really think that's good value. Who have they got other than Piti that's going to be scoring big points?

 

[danlindfield]

Can I canvas opinion? Yesterday, BetVictor advertised Froome at 10/1 to win the overall for Tour D'Oman. This was after he came 2nd on the stage.

They had Contador at 1/33 (which seemed odd), Evans at 12/1 and Rodriguez at 22/1

Obviously I snapped up Froome at 10/1 hoping that he could hang on today. BetVictor didn't email but at 9am, after Stage 5 had already started, cancelled my bet. Only after asking why was I told they'd made a "palpable error" and that the price was 1/33.

Is it fair / legal for them to be able to revoke bets after they've been placed and after they become active

The did the same to me last week in Qatar but that time email before the start of the stage to explain their error and offered amended odds or cancellation.

I'd appreciate your thoughts please. I feel a bit diddled.

 

[Caruut]

Can I canvas opinion? Yesterday, BetVictor advertised Froome at 10/1 to win the overall for Tour D'Oman. This was after he came 2nd on the stage.

They had Contador at 1/33 (which seemed odd), Evans at 12/1 and Rodriguez at 22/1

Obviously I snapped up Froome at 10/1 hoping that he could hang on today. BetVictor didn't email but at 9am, after Stage 5 had already started, cancelled my bet. Only after asking why was I told they'd made a "palpable error" and that the price was 1/33.

Is it fair / legal for them to be able to revoke bets after they've been placed and after they become active

The did the same to me last week in Qatar but that time email before the start of the stage to explain their error and offered amended odds or cancellation.

I'd appreciate your thoughts please. I feel a bit diddled.

Sadly, I doubt you have a leg to stand on. Their terms and conditions are almost certain to say that if they make an administrative error, then it doesn't count. So long as they can justifiably demonstrate how it happened and that the odds offered were clearly not correct, they are probably in the clear. As it is, it seems pretty evident that they mixed up the odds on Froome and Contador, so I think they're allowed to do this to you. Sorry.

 

[danlindfield]

OK. Thanks. Its seems to happen a lot with BetVictor. My concern is that they advertise these good prices to get you on the website and then withdraw them knowing they can sneak out of paying up their slippery-worded T&C's. Surely they must check prices before putting up online and if they don't then thats their own fault for not doing so. 100/1 to 1000/1 I can imagine was a typo but 10/1 and 1/33 cannot be.

 

[Caruut]

Based on what you said (that they claimed Froome was meant to be 1/33 and that Contador was actually 1/33) I think they must have just entered the data the wrong way around somehow. Given the amount of odds they offer - well into the thousands - they can't check everything they put up there. Surely you knew when taking odds of 10/1 for a strong GC rider 1st on the overall to win that something was a bit weird.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Basically the T&C's says that the site can do whatever they want, so in most cases you've got no case. And in this case, I'll say that it's fair that they cancelled the bet, because odds 10 was obviously way too high (as in a mistake).

 

[danlindfield]

In theory then, if they price a horse at 10/1 and it wins but other bookmakers priced it at 3/1. They have the right to cancel all bets as their price was a mistake, even after the race has finished. Its amazing they ever pay out.

 

[The Hitch]

Can I canvas opinion? Yesterday, BetVictor advertised Froome at 10/1 to win the overall for Tour D'Oman. This was after he came 2nd on the stage.

They had Contador at 1/33 (which seemed odd), Evans at 12/1 and Rodriguez at 22/1

Obviously I snapped up Froome at 10/1 hoping that he could hang on today. BetVictor didn't email but at 9am, after Stage 5 had already started, cancelled my bet. Only after asking why was I told they'd made a "palpable error" and that the price was 1/33.

Is it fair / legal for them to be able to revoke bets after they've been placed and after they become active

The did the same to me last week in Qatar but that time email before the start of the stage to explain their error and offered amended odds or cancellation.

I'd appreciate your thoughts please. I feel a bit diddled.

Our friend "search" had something similar with anders jacobsen at the 4 hills. He got.him.at 100-1 or something then when anders won the first hill.they said it was an error.and cancelled but he complained and they said he cam have the bet but can never bet with them.again. Ultimately jacobsen lost though.

 

[danlindfield]

For example, they've just priced Impey for the win tomorrow at 150/1. I placed a bet and now he's slashed to 80/1. Does this mean they can wriggle out of it again if he wins?

 

[The Hitch]

I don't really think that's good value. Who have they got other than Piti that's going to be scoring big points?

blasphemy.

They have rui costa .and quitana of course. 3 very good scorers and valverde is a 2 time uci wt champion.

Plenty of good secondary riders to.score points here and there like.rojas, benat at the giro , moreno already scored some points at the tour down under.

 

[Caruut]

For example, they've just priced Impey for the win tomorrow at 150/1. I placed a bet and now he's slashed to 80/1. Does this mean they can wriggle out of it again if he wins?

They could perhaps wriggle out, but I am pretty sure they won't. In Froome's case his odds were something like a factor of 300 out - clearly an administrative mistake not a mistake in calculation. If the odds were slashed right after you put the bet on then they've probably got an algorithm to do that - I'd certainly do that if I were running a betting site.

In smaller markets where your knowledge is unlikely to be significantly better than the punters, if a bet goes on a rider with long odds it could be because of something they don't know about. So, you write a program that automatically cuts the odds just in case, and then you can ease it back up if there's no further movement.

You also have to remember that bookies make their money mainly by rigging the game in their favour, and not by accurately predicting results. They configure the odds to try and, as far as possible, make themselves a guaranteed profit. In a football match between Manchester United and Reading, if everyone so far has bet on Manchester United, they will lengthen the odds on Reading past what they think is actually best value to balance their liabilities on each side. In a market as small as cycling, one bet on Impey is enough to leave them over-exposed on him. Even if they think Impey is still a 150/1 for the stage, they still don't want to increase their exposure too much.

 

[Caruut]

blasphemy.

They have rui costa .and quitana of course. 3 very good scorers and valverde is a 2 time uci wt champion.

Plenty of good secondary riders to.score points here and there like.rojas, benat at the giro , moreno already scored some points at the tour down under.

True, but all of them are going to need to produce best-ever seasons to really challenge, I think. They've got a good squad, I agree, but the team prize is pretty tough to get without a top squad or an absolutely ridiculous year. 50/1 I'd take it.

 

[The Hitch]

True, but all of them are going to need to produce best-ever seasons to really challenge, I think. They've got a good squad, I agree, but the team prize is pretty tough to get without a top squad or an absolutely ridiculous year. 50/1 I'd take it.

Only the top 5 scorers count.

Valverde costa and Quitana are as good as anyone but sky opqs and maybe saxo as a top 3.
Add in cobo and rojas with visconti intxausti and moreno waiting on the bench that is a very solid 5.

 

[Caruut]

Only the top 5 scorers count.

Valverde costa and Quitana are as good as anyone but sky opqs and maybe saxo as a top 3.
Add in cobo and rojas with visconti intxausti and moreno waiting on the bench that is a very solid 5.

I agree they'll be close, but because CQ drops off more gradually than public perception of prestige, the variance is going to be pretty low.

 

[Bexon30]

lol Froome into 3.25 to win the Tour after that.

I took him at 3.75 when we thought Contador was doing the Giro which seemed like a pointless decision as he went back to that after Contador made up his mind. Can't see him drifting back up now though.

Who's this with? Froome to win the TDF at 3-1. Is that right?

 

[ferryman]

Who's this with? Froome to win the TDF at 3-1. Is that right?

Are you in the UK/ROI? We use fractions for odds, I think other countries use decimals. For example, on Paddy Power, Froome is currently 5/2 for TDF which equates to 3.50 decimal. Most betting sites will have a converter.

 

[UncleTupelo]

They could perhaps wriggle out, but I am pretty sure they won't. In Froome's case his odds were something like a factor of 300 out - clearly an administrative mistake not a mistake in calculation. If the odds were slashed right after you put the bet on then they've probably got an algorithm to do that - I'd certainly do that if I were running a betting site.

In smaller markets where your knowledge is unlikely to be significantly better than the punters, if a bet goes on a rider with long odds it could be because of something they don't know about. So, you write a program that automatically cuts the odds just in case, and then you can ease it back up if there's no further movement.

You also have to remember that bookies make their money mainly by rigging the game in their favour, and not by accurately predicting results. They configure the odds to try and, as far as possible, make themselves a guaranteed profit. In a football match between Manchester United and Reading, if everyone so far has bet on Manchester United, they will lengthen the odds on Reading past what they think is actually best value to balance their liabilities on each side. In a market as small as cycling, one bet on Impey is enough to leave them over-exposed on him. Even if they think Impey is still a 150/1 for the stage, they still don't want to increase their exposure too much.

Now best price is at 25/1.

Hope your bet gets home, nice pay day if Impey delivers.

 

[Ferminal]

Hitch - better off just dropping money on Cobo and Quintana for Giro and Tour

 

[The Hitch]

Hitch - better off just dropping money on Cobo and Quintana for Giro and Tour

I was listening to harmonn say today about how movistar are copying sky's science based training and thought- valverde 30-1, you know what

 

[wirral]

I was listening to harmonn say today about how movistar are copying sky's science based training and thought- valverde 30-1, you know what

May I persuade you, Hitch, to disregard most of what Harmon says. When he doesn't know or doesn't have anything to say, he fills with vacuous spiel that is impossible to disprove or refute as it is so vague and woolly.

Here is one of his favourite ploys.

[Insert Name] is a very special type of rider. You never know what you are going to get from him. On his day, he can certainly produce the goods but sometimes he doesn't seem to come to the races. It is difficult to predict how he is going to perform. What do you think, Brian/Sean/Marcus?

 

[manafana]

Sadly missed bouhanni winning stage 6 of Oman,

Getting involved in todays tt in Portugal

Hard see past martin anyway with the course suiting as far as i can tell.