The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2014/15 "TdF Monster Edition"

[Jspear]

I made a mistake! I've got Ulissi for tomorrows stage.
I hate when I do that....I'm torn; I want AC to win tomorrow, but now I wouldn't mind a breakaway taking it.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I got Zakarin down for tomorrow. So I need a breakaway. I also got a stage for Nieve, so my last week might be really really bad

 

[ILovecycling]

Today is the day of mythical Mortirolo! Im surprised that not everybody has Contador, so I decided to do my group summary again as this is a very important day - esp GC changes wise.

Group Anquetil prediction - Aprica stg:
4x Contador (Tigerion,Pricey,Poursuivant,ILC)
1x Aru (vladimir)
1x Nieve (GTF)
1x Zakarin (VinoAE)
1x Porte (PantaniL)
1x Pozzovivo (Foxxy)

...to sum up, 2 competitors cant score due to DNS,almost half of the group has Contador, but it will be very interesting to follow Zakarin and Nieve thru breakaways(!) where IMO they have a big chance. The last point-bringing rider is Aru, who is IMO the worst option looking at those picks now.(otoh he usually has good 3rd week)
...There is a more pressure to mentioned breakaway guys as their 'owners' would escape lineballing lottery
So, bring it ON!

 

[Flamin]

I have Hesjedal from a break and I'm still more than happy with it Alberto won't win today I think. Either a break survives or Landa wins with Alberto 2nd.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

I have Hesjedal from a break and I'm still more than happy with it Alberto won't win today I think. Either a break survives or Landa wins with Alberto 2nd.

Yep, Hesjedal is very good pick for today.Will be interesting to see if he makes a break.

Im not sure with AC either, but still a good option imo.

 

[Flamin]

How unlucky! Hesjedal had this one in the bag if not for Contador's puncture

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Joined the stage late, but heard the story.... didn´t see much over the weekend... but, but: How dumb dumb dumb dumb are DSes? I mean we all know that Sky (almost) always has the weaker rider as captain. Some of them "captains" living in motorhomes, or are unable to follow the dom in mountains, and what else...
But one could imagine that since Trentino AST should have known Landa is better than Aru, and today they gave away the Giro win to save face for Aru? Didn´t let Landa go all in? Hey idiots: I can do the DS job better for way less money with way less infos. Could have told you, you bet on the wrong horse (Aru)...

Anyway, 16 scored with Contador...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Gotta love this game.

Provisional Standings after Stage 16: (Links: see frontpage)

Woo–hoo I am leading it all. Despite my stage picks that pretty much suck (and ofc The Porte gamble that went wrong as something could go wrong)... How about that G2F? I am on the way to steal you are division title late again.
ILove, you are on the brink now. Who would have imagined after you led basically after every stage so far? Btw, the same way of fade Kiilike is doing...
What improbable comebacks by Tigerion and Jaylew. Wow!
Mutschi taking over the lead from Aarnold, who led by more than a mile just yesterstages! Amazing!
Netserk and even Fauniera (almost) back in the game. Unthinkable just a couple of days ago...
And watta "disgrace" Eshnar and Vlad are displaying. From (tied) division leads to the cellars in a few stages...
And ofc lots of mo action, like Hitch silently climbing the ladder, or Mortand being right when he said he peaked too early (which never happened before)...

The Anquetil Division:
29.5 FoxxyBrown1111 (DC)
28.5 Geraint Too Fast
25.0 ILovecycling
25.0 Poursuivant
24.0 Pantani_lives
24.0 Pricey_sky
24.0 Tigerion
----------------------------------------------
23.5 Vino attacks everyone
23.0 vladimir

The Bartali Division:
28.0 Flamin
27.5 Jspear (DC)
27.0 Mellow Velo
25.5 Wallenquist
25.0 al_pacino
25.0 Ruudz0r
24.5 jaylew
----------------------------------------------
23.5 Eshnar
22.5 greenedge

The Coppi Division:
28.5 mutschi
28.0 aarnold517
27.5 diggercuz
26.5 LosBrolin
26.0 Hugo87 (DC)
24.5 Ferminal
24.5 l.Harm
----------------------------------------------
23.5 Netserk
23.5 Sasquatch

The Defraeye Division:
26.5 the sceptic (DC)
25.0 The Hitch
24.5 Arredondo
24.5 mortand (WC)
23.5 kiilike
23.5 search
23.0 Jorik112 *
----------------------------------------------
23.0 minessa
21.5 fauniera
(* Jorik112 wins the tie-breaker on step 1 with 15 scores vs minessa with 13 scores)

 

[Netserk]

Random break to take it tomorrow without anyone scoring and then Contador to win or place top-3 to Cervinia without any other picks scoring (likely to happen).

edit: and of course Cunego to win the Verbania stage _O_

 

[Eshnar]

I knew I was toast

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Oh my Esh... My condolences. Really feel sorry. It´s your Giro. Wish ya a good comeback in the remaining stages.

 

[ILovecycling]

what the heck?
I want jury in action,this should be reconsidered

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

"should be reconsidered"

Catch me if you can... You are "only" five T-20s guys/points short of mine.
You then better score on all remaining stages.

Edit: Gotta love guys like Kangert, Nieve and Monfort. Riders you can trust.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

"should be reconsidered"

Catch me if you can... You are "only" five T-20s guys/points short of mine.
You then better score on all remaining stages.

Edit: Gotta love guys like Kangert, Nieve and Monfort. Riders you can trust.

yea I need Roman,Ion and Formolo to make top20 but they are like half an hour down
sooo....I need to pray for hitting those sweet spots (have to look if possible) and stages.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Oh my its close in our group, 2 points separating 7 players!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Shall be one heck of a great finish in our division. It may comes down to "spot-points-lottery" deciding the relegation.

 

[Tigerion]

I had thought I was out of it, somehow missing Orica in stage 1 really hurt and still might cost me
If Landa can hold Porte's position at number 2 and leave Aru 3rd that would be great.

MATTHEWS Michael tomorrow, guess it depends on how the pure sprinters fair
TJALLINGII Maarten as my dark horse
PORTE Richie (No points for me)
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto (Hasn't got his stage win yet so might go hard)
VIVIANI Elia (Without Porte to protect they should give him a good chance at it)

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Me too, I thought you was out for good. Always around 3 points behind a safe place on the right side of the line.
The last few stage picks don´t look bad either...

 

[jaylew]

I had thought I was out of it, somehow missing Orica in stage 1 really hurt and still might cost me
If Landa can hold Porte's position at number 2 and leave Aru 3rd that would be great.

MATTHEWS Michael tomorrow, guess it depends on how the pure sprinters fair
TJALLINGII Maarten as my dark horse
PORTE Richie (No points for me)
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto (Hasn't got his stage win yet so might go hard)
VIVIANI Elia (Without Porte to protect they should give him a good chance at it)

Bling has gone home.

My placing is very tenuous as I'm relying on points from Nieve and Aru being perfectly placed. I was hoping Amador would take the last podium spot from Aru but now I realize that I have him 3rd and 6 people in my division have him 4th so that wouldn't be good, game-wise.

I've got 3 other guys who are only off from my predicted place by one but I hope I can score some stage points so I don't have to count on that. So far, I've tied for the worst stage point total in my group but I actually like the rest of my picks better than what I see from others in my group.


At this point, I'd say I have a 55-60% chance of advancing.

 

[Tigerion]

Bling has gone home.

My placing is very tenuous as I'm relying on points from Nieve and Aru being perfectly placed. I was hoping Amador would take the last podium spot from Aru but now I realize that I have him 3rd and 6 people in my division have him 4th so that wouldn't be good, game-wise.

I've got 3 other guys who are only off from my predicted place by one but I hope I can score some stage points so I don't have to count on that. So far, I've tied for the worst stage point total in my group but I actually like the rest of my picks better than what I see from others in my group.

At this point, I'd say I have a 55-60% chance of advancing.

Damn, hadn't seen he had pulled out, knew it was coming but thought he might go through until Friday

I would probably give myself less of a chance than that, pretty much like you relying on people in the right positions. I really need stage 19 to go to the breakaway, there are 4 Contador and 2 Aru picks and I'm left with Porte so if the the GC guys take the win then I'm in serious trouble.
Next 2 stages a a mix of people, no clear must have picks but anybody who gets lucky here will have a good advantage.

Really could come down to the final stage, 3 Mezgec, 3 Modolo, 2 Vivianni and a Nizzolo

 

[Netserk]

Mezgec's first top-3 in the race is the day I have picked him

Okay I lose 0.5 point to I.Harm (and diggercuz, but he is far ahead and doesn't matter to me), but I gain the same on the rest

 

[l.Harm]

Grazie Modolo.

 

[diggercuz]

Re:

Grazie Modolo.

Indeed... Here's hoping he has one more stage in him!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Grazie Lobato... awesome positioning.

6 with Modolo (most picked of the stasge, which shows again that the "smart masses" are right), 3 with Mezgec, 0 for Nizzolo...

 

[Flamin]

Why did I pick this Viviani clown and even worse, placed a bet on him today (though he had pretty nice odds) and as red jersey winner pre-Giro.