The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2014/15 "TdF Monster Edition"

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Please ban Wallenquist....I caught him doping...
Foxxy sorry to disappoint but Horner won't drop out. I had a pep talk with him...explained my situation. He is going to rock n' roll - Kwiatkowski will do the tt of his life and step back into the top 20. Valverde and Mollema will stay where they are. Ok...I'm done dreaming.

You were on holidays a couple of days?
OFC Horner won´t drop out anymore. 21st is too far away. So Kwia will gain 26 mins on his main rivals?
OK, just kidding... BTW, good luck tomorrow. You really need Mollema and Valv to hold their spots, otherwise it gets hard to survive. We´ll see.

Wallenquist what a MONSTER
Ive got no chance to win now

anyway, Panzerwagen uber alles!!!

Yeah, Martin will win (95%), or at least score (99%). Is 1% crash chance reasonable... Not that I wish him, just as general information.

I didn't watch the stage, so imagine the smirk on my face when I checked the results about an hour ago.

By the way, great pick Wallenquist!

Yes I can. Had the same when I saw Porte dropiing out with basically zero chance to get back in...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

König, Mollema, Ten Dam... well, well... too close to call.
Had a look at CQ. Even though König blasted Mollema last time (Vuelta) that doesn´t count. Mollema was already on holiday ride after the hard TdF.
Will be nail biting thriller.

yeah, but dont forget mollema was 11th in both tdf ITT's last year. And TDF itt's rate higher than vuelta.

It's hard to call. Given Mollema's improvement in the last week. I think Mollema will hold

 

[ILovecycling]

Lets go boys,D-Day is here!
Tony smash everything and everyone!


btw how many of you from Anquetil group have Tony? :****ed voice: I know Wallenquist has :****ed voice:

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Is the link not working? I mean all the stats are there in google.docs...

 

[ILovecycling]

Is the link not working? I mean all the stats are there in google.docs...

Dont be confused.Im just too lazy...anyway I found it

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Wow. Horner losing 5 mins, Mollema loses time too... looks good so far.

 

[ILovecycling]

well mr valverde and mr mollema,what did I expect lol
otoh I've won 2 bets today,that at least maked up my mood

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Provisional Rankings after Stage 20

Explanation of the provisionals are in post #1, as the links to them are too.

The “Anquetil”-Division:
18.0 Wallenquist
16.5 ILovecycling
15.0 aarnold517
15.0 Pantani_lives
14.0 Gotland
14.0 Jspear
14.0 kingjr
13.5 Eshnar
13.0 jaylew
---------------------------------
12.5 FoxxyBrown1111
12.0 rainman
12.0 oliveira
10.5 cycladianpirate

The “Bartali”-Division:
17.5 mortand
17.5 Sasquatch
16.5 minessa
16.5 Pricey_sky
15.5 asdfgh101
15.5 BYOP88
15.0 JOSEDIN
14.5 mutschi
14.0 Tigerion
14.0 zlev11
13.5 l.Harm
13.5 LosBrolin
---------------------------------
12.5 Kazistuta
12.0 Armchair cyclist

The “Coppi”-Division:
18.0 18-Valve. (pithy)
16.5 Vino attacks everyone
16.0 movingtarget
15.5 Ruudz0r
15.0 Froome19
15.0 Jorik112
15.0 Poursuivant
14.0 Afrank
13.5 Ferminal
13.5 greenedge
13.5 search
13.0 EvansIsTheBest
---------------------------------
12.5 The Hitch
12.5 Arredondo

The “Defraeye”-Division:
17.0 diggercuz
17.0 the sceptic
16.0 al_pacino
15.5 Dekker_Tifosi
15.5 Hugo87
15.5 vladimir
15.0 Flamin
15.0 Geraint Too Fast
14.5 Mellow Velo
14.0 kiilike
13.5 the asian
---------------------------------
13.0 Krzysztof_O
11.5 Jakob747

 

[mortand]

That ranking looks ok to me

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

That ranking looks ok to me

As always, right? In the last second moving to the top. Congrats.

 

[ILovecycling]

If I understand it correctly,Foxxy you still have a chance to save yourself

 

[Jspear]

If I understand it correctly,Foxxy you still have a chance to save yourself

If I understand it correctly, I really really need Kittel to have a mechanical with 3 K to go.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

If I understand it correctly,Foxxy you still have a chance to save yourself

Told ya am coming back on the last day with a inches sprint won by Kittel.
You know Mortand and I are the lone cowboys to never have missed the final. So how can I miss in the first round?

If I understand it correctly, I really really need Kittel to have a mechanical with 3 K to go.

I think you won´t. I think I´ll do some stats of who´s save and who´s not...

 

[BYOP88]

Hmm I've survived 20 days will I survive the final day? Probably not but it was fun!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

You would need a couple of miracles not to qualify (like combined DNFs by T-20 riders).
So, congrats for reaching the Vuelta.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Scenarios:

drop-outs would be...

If Kittel wins (it then would not matter if Demare and/or Greipel finish T-3)
A- Cycladian, Oliveira, Rainman
B- Armchair, Kazistuta
C- Evans, Search, Arredondo
D- Jakob, Krzysztof

If Greipel wins (and Kittel does not finish T-3, no matter if Demare finishes T-3 or not)
A- Cycladian, Oliveira, Rainman, Foxxy
B- Armchair, Los Brolin
C- Hitch, Arredondo
D- Jakob, Krzysztof

If Greipel wins (and Kittel finishes T-3, no matter if Demare also finishes T-3 or not)
A- Cycladian, Oliveira, Rainman
B- Armchair, Los Brolin
C- Arredondo, Hitch, Evans
D- Jakob, Krzysztof

If Kittel and Greipel finish T-3 but do not win (no matter if Demare or any other rider wins);
or Kittel finishes T-3 but does not win (plus Greipel does not finish better than 4th, no matter if Demare or any other rider wins, or if Demare finishes T-3)
A- Cycladian, Oliveira, Rainman
B- Armchair, Kazistuta
C- Arredondo, Hitch, Evans
D-Jakob, Krzysztof

If Demare wins (plus Kittel and Greipel do not finish T-3); or any other rider wins (w/o Kittel and/or Greipel finishing T-3, no matter where Demare finishes); or Greipel finishes T-3 but does not win (plus Kittel does not win or finish T-3, no matter where Demare finishes)
provisional rankings of stage 20 become official (in the sense of who qualified, and who not).

If any of the current T-20 DNF stage 21, or lose/gain a spot, the rankings will be re-shuffeld. But I wouldn´t count on that. It´s extremly unlikely for a last TdF-stage...

No guarantees here, since there is always the chance of human error, but I am sure with 99% confidence that the scenarios of qualy or not are correct.

 

[Jspear]

Scenarios:
If Kittel wins (it would then not matter if Demare and/or Greipel finish T-3)
drop-outs would be...
A- Cycladian, Oliveira, Rainman
B- Armchair, Kazistuta
C- Evans, Search, Arredondo
D- Jakob, Krzysztof

If Greipel wins (and Kittel does not finish T-3, no matter if Demare finishes T-3 or not)
A- Cycladian, Oliveira, Rainman, Foxxy
B- Armchair, Los Brolin
C- Hitch, Arredondo
D- Jakob, Krzysztof

If Demare wins (plus Kittel and Greipel do not finish T-3), or any other rider wins (w/o Kittel and/or Greipel finishing T-3);
provisional rankings of stage 20 become official.

If Kittel and Greipel finish T-3 but do not win (no matter if Demare or any other rider wins)

Thanks this is helpful! Hopefully I'll be able to take the things I've learned from this round into the next.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So that´s good news. Kittel to finish T-3, and I am safe, no matter what else happens (outside of T-20 crashes or spot losings OFC).

Based on the possible scenarios for stage 21, I have highlighted the players in the provisional rankings of stage 20 (see last page) as follows:
Those who are already qualified are in red, those who are in a "make or brake" situation for stage 21 are in green, and those who are already eliminated are in blue.

 

[the sceptic]

wtf how did I do that good? I thought I got everything wrong.

 

[diggercuz]

wtf how did I do that good? I thought I got everything wrong.

You and me both!

thinking that you will be clear on top after Kittel smashes it on the Champs... Anyway im super happy to be up there.

 

[LosBrolin]

This game has been so cool by this far, thanks for organising it!

First time here for me and i'am already in big troubles, need Kittel ftw badly. Couldn't guess before the race that Gorilla is my biggest threat when arriving Champs

 

[cycladianpirate]

Lanterne Rouge baby!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Some stats on those who were/are "living on the edge" (on elimination) at the twelve provisional rankings posted (stages 7, 8, 10-14, 16-20)

Anquetil:
Cycladian (9) 8-12, 14, 17-20
Rainman (8) 7, 13-20
Foxxy (7) 13-20
Jspear (4) 10-12, 16
Kingjr (2) 7, 8
ILovecycl (1) 8
Oliveira (1) 20

Bartali:
Armchair (8) 8, 11, 13, 14, 17-20
Asdfgh (7) 10-17
Tigerion (3) 7-10
Mutschi (3) 7, 12, 16
Kazistuta (3) 18-20
Pricey (1) 7
IHarm (1) 19

Coppi:
Arredondo (10) 7, 10, 12-20
Search (8) 7, 10-13, 17-19
Poursuivant (5) 8, 10, 13, 14, 17
Hitch (5) 8-12, 20
Evans (2) 8, 11
Greenedge (1) 16

Defraeye:
Jakob (11) 8-20
Krzysztof (9) 7, 11-18, 20
Mellow (8) 7, 10-13, 16, 18, 19
Dekker (1) 7
Digger (1) 8
Kiilike (1) 14

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So none was always on elimination. Myself did certainly the biggest collapse from 1st to elimination within one stage (the black 13th)... I am sitting there since. Ouch!
Great comebacks by Mellow & Asdfgh; from perennial "hot seats" to safe qualifications.
What a bummer for Oliveira; always safe trou-out, and then, on the next-to-last stage out of competition with (almost) no chance to comeback... Los Brolin could match that "achievement" (say could "better" it) if he falls out today (that would happen if Greipel wins). He never occupied a elimination spot.
Mortand as usual from lingering down in the standings to the top in the end.
Awesome comeback by Poursuivant also... shifting between elimination and not to safe qualification in the last few stages.
Kazistuta could master a late comeback too; Greipel "just" needs to win today.
Wallenquist climbing the ladder in the last few stages like a Panzerwagen, winning the Division with a solid margin....
Tigerion with a bad start to sure qualification... not bad either.
There are more to mention, but I don´t wanna write a book now. So congrats to those who qualified , and see you next time to those who got eliminated.
And for 6 players it´s nail-biting time once more (see scenarios one page before). Unluckily it includes me. I´d have prefered a relaxed last stage. OTOH, could be a tremendous comeback. Sitting on elimination since 8 consecutive stages and then qualify on the last second would be exciting. I am talking about this since a few days. I talk Kittel to victory (or T-3 at least).
It was quite a rollercoaster ride.

 

[ILovecycling]

Good job.It is not so interesting for me (Paris stage) but its nice to read your analyses.

Hope Kittel is going for TOP3 at least