Teams & Riders The "MVP" Mathieu Van der Poel Road Discussion Thread

[Berniece]

We already suspected it after the CX season but TA confirmed his great form. He's ready for his beloved 3 monuments and we should have some great battles of apex predators (vs Pogacar). Obviously MVP is #1 favorite for MSR and Roubaix and Pogacar's task of completing the set is looking very very hard.

His form is looking really really good. Dutch speaking riders that were interviewed after TA said he's flying

 

[canina82]

He is flying specially on the hills. I still think he will not win MSR due to tactics but I don't expect Pogacar to win too

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He is flying specially on the hills. I still think he will not win MSR due to tactics but I don't expect Pogacar to win too

Pogacar & UAE attacking is a good tactic for Van der Poel as fast riders who could threaten him at the finish are eliminated. Matthieu is in control both uphill and downhill.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Pogacar & UAE attacking is a good tactic for Van der Poel as fast riders who could threaten him at the finish are eliminated. Matthieu is in control both uphill and downhill.

Yup, MVDP is the one who has the most to gain if UAE and other teams tries to destroy the field. It's perfect for him going away with Pog and potentially one other rider like Ganna last year. Always a risk that the others get it right but a large field sprint is much worse. This year Pog looks scary strong so I believe UAE will go for another massive attack on Cipressa and put their bet on brute force rather than some elaborate tactical scheme.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yup, MVDP is the one who has the most to gain if UAE and other teams tries to destroy the field. It's perfect for him going away with Pog and potentially one other rider like Ganna last year. Always a risk that the others get it right but a large field sprint is much worse. This year Pog looks scary strong so I believe UAE will go for another massive attack on Cipressa and put their bet on brute force rather than some elaborate tactical scheme.

It's likely they will nuke Cipressa again. However, UAE's team is weakened so there's no chance to explode Cipressa without sacrificing Del Toro (with Wellens and Narvaez around they could try both nuking Cipressa and double attack on MVP). Now, attacking with Del Toro first would mean Cipressa isn't hard enough.

 

[Lequack]

They just need to keep attacking with 1-2 Pog and Del Toro. Don't just waste Del Toro for a leadout.

 

[P4rthen0n]

They just need to keep attacking with 1-2 Pog and Del Toro. Don't just waste Del Toro for a leadout.

If UAE goes for the 1-2 with Pog and Del Toro, that's a massive risk for Pogacar.
What if MVDP calls Pog's bluff and just sticks to his wheel instead of following Del Toro? Del Toro will ride alone to the win.
Pogacar can't take that risk.

That would be the best strategy for a UAE win, but not for a Pogacar win.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

If UAE goes for the 1-2 with Pog and Del Toro, that's a massive risk for Pogacar.
What if MVDP calls Pog's bluff and just sticks to his wheel instead of following Del Toro? Del Toro will ride alone to the win.
Pogacar can't take that risk.

That would be the best strategy for a UAE win, but not for a Pogacar win.

I really think this is it. He will leverage his 2 x victory against Pogacar. Bit like how he did that against van Aert in Tirenno. "you want to win it?" "You ride. You close the gaps"

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

I really think this is it. He will leverage his 2 x victory against Pogacar. Bit like how he did that against van Aert in Tirenno. "you want to win it?" "You ride. You close the gaps"

No way.

1. As the overwhelming favourite, staking your whole race on teammates chasing each other is very bad call. He shouldn't let anyone ahead, and if they are, he should back himself to both bring them back and win the sprint.

2. I'm pretty sure you're misreading pog. In terms of strategy uae go all in on pog, but *if* a teammate would be in position to win he would not chase. If nothing else because he's way too smart to risk the bad optics and destructive impact on team environment. I'd even go further, based on previous behaviour I think he enjoys friends and teammates winning it

 

[Berniece]

2. I'm pretty sure you're misreading pog. In terms of strategy uae go all in on pog, but *if* a teammate would be in position to win he would not chase. If nothing else because he's way too smart to risk the bad optics and destructive impact on team environment. I'd even go further, based on previous behaviour I think he enjoys friends and teammates winning it

Really doubt he’ll be happy if Del Toro wins MSR and Vermeersch Roubaix

 

[LookProGoSlow]

Really doubt he’ll be happy if Del Toro wins MSR and Vermeersch Roubaix

Optics will be bad in that scenario also. Pog the invincible trumped by his teammates. not going to happen of course.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

2. I'm pretty sure you're misreading pog. In terms of strategy uae go all in on pog, but *if* a teammate would be in position to win he would not chase. If nothing else because he's way too smart to risk the bad optics and destructive impact on team environment. I'd even go further, based on previous behaviour I think he enjoys friends and teammates winning it

If the whole team goes all in on Pogacar there will be no teammate left to win. That's the whole point of all in. The baiting MVDP strategy is just not going to happen. And if it does they will regret it sorely.

 

[jono]

If UAE goes for the 1-2 with Pog and Del Toro, that's a massive risk for Pogacar.
What if MVDP calls Pog's bluff and just sticks to his wheel instead of following Del Toro? Del Toro will ride alone to the win.
Pogacar can't take that risk.

That would be the best strategy for a UAE win, but not for a Pogacar win.

Regarding a UAE 1-2 with Del Toro, where can the latter make an attack that isn't covered by numerous non-MVDP riders?

 

[Balthazar]

Regarding a UAE 1-2 with Del Toro, where can the latter make an attack that isn't covered by numerous non-MVDP riders?

There is that although I am curious to see how strong Del Toro will be on the Cipressa/Poggio if it gets to that. He is a bit of a strange rider, either he'll very good or we won't see him at all. The UAE team just seems too light to be on the front going onto the Cipressa, Wellens is a huge miss. Vermeersch, Pog and Del Toro are the only ones I see anywhere near the front which, I dont think is enough. Very little faith in Christen, Grossschartner and McNulty. The other teams will do a sprint leadout towards the Cipressa with the likes of Tarling, Swift, Plackaert, Marsman, Kielich and Rex. Praying for no crashes!

 

[jono]

I know he might not rely on team strength for this race in the same way as some other riders, but on paper at least the Alpecin squad looks weaker than the 2025 group.

Out: Hermans, Groves, Riesebeek, Meurisse
In: Gogl, Verstrynge, Marsman, Planckaert
Remaining: MVDP, Philipsen, Dillier