Teams & Riders The "MVP" Mathieu Van der Poel Road Discussion Thread

[vappa]

Hasn't he only actually done that once though?

Yes, and that year Cipressa wasn't comparable to last 2 years

 

[jono]

No other possibility remains?! What? Mathieu is 31 years old now; you think it’s impossible that a 31 year old cyclist whose principle weapon is/was explosive power (one of the first things to decline with age) could possibly have lost 1% at 31? And that if that happens against the best rider the world has ever seen (who seems even better this year) it’s going to be a problem? Certainly the crash makes it very difficult to judge the performances “apples to apples” but to say no other possibility remains just seems incorrect to me.

If yesterday was Mathieu's peak level he has no chance in any race with Pogi present.

I don't believe that to be the case.

If it is, and Pogacar has also taken another leap, as you noted in your following paragraph, cycling is over as a competition as Pogacar simply can't lose.

 

[Salvarani]

If yesterday was Mathieu's peak level he has no chance in any race with Pogi present.

I don't believe that to be the case.

If it is, as you noted in your following paragraph, cycling is over as a competition as Pogacar simply can't lose.

He has lost before and will likely lose again at some point.

 

[AmRacer]

If yesterday was Mathieu's peak level he has no chance in any race with Pogi present.

I don't believe that to be the case.

If it is, as you noted in your following paragraph, cycling is over as a competition as Pogacar simply can't lose.

Every GC Jonas races, where Pogi isn't present, he wins.

Every one day race Mathieu target, where Pogi isn't present, he wins.

Every ITT Remco does, he wins.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If yesterday was Mathieu's peak level he has no chance in any race with Pogi present.

I don't believe that to be the case.

If it is, as you noted in your following paragraph, cycling is over as a competition as Pogacar simply can't lose.

He wasn't at his best: due to the crash or other factors. He should be ready for the cobbles but Pogacar is a monstrous rival.

 

[James M]

I think he was gucci. Its just that the effort to get back in cost something. Combine that with the slower start on Cipressa due to Pog and the others having to chase back and get to the front, yet still riding it faster overall meaning once they got up to speed it was insane fast. This time it was enough to crack him.

if we watch last year, Ganna closed much of the gap last year to Pog for him, this year Ganna couldnt hold the wheel meaning Mvdp was forced out in the wind to close inititaly himself. Small things add up when already on limit last year

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think he was gucci, and I think he was already close to his limit last year based on his comments.

Its just that the effort to get back in cost something. Combine that with the slower start on Cipressa due to Pog and the others having to chase back and get to front, yet still riding it faster overall meaning once they got up to speed it was insane speed. This time it was enough to crack him.

if we watch last year, Ganna closed much of the gap last year to Pog for him, this year Ganna couldnt hold the wheel meaning Mvdp was forced out to close it inititaly himself. Many small things add up when already on limit last year

Tom Danielson has a theory that the crash helped Pogacar in this way: that maybe the fact that MVP did a big effort before and at the start of Cipressa made this climb kinda longer & harder for him than it's normally.

 

[James M]

Tom Danielson has a theory that the crash helped Pogacar in this way: that maybe the fact that MVP did a big effort before and at the start of Cipressa made this climb kinda longer & harder than it's normally.

He did ? I think hes spot on and share the belief. Pogi benefits most the harder it is he has far more resources in the bank than anyone and not close.

Rationalize it. Cipressa itself was nucked way more than last year considering the slow start the speed was insane when got going + effort right before to get back in - simply meaning at top of cipressa it required way more for Mvdp than last year, but also Pog so its no excuse more an explonation. Could clearly see he was gassed at the top.

 

[James M]

Pidcock had the smoothest run in and benefited from that but thats not to take anything away, he was still class 100%.

Ganna had the same if im no mistaken? He too just couldnt follow this year remember which are telling us its not so easy as MvdP was worse, more so that Pogi was better and the circumstances with small things adding up combined.

 

[vappa]

Pidcock had the smoothest run in and benefited from that but thats not to take anything away, he was still class 100%.

Ganna had the same if im no mistaken? He too just couldnt follow this year remember which are telling us its not so easy as MvdP was worse, more so that Pogi was better and the circumstances with small things adding up combined.

Ganna crashed earlier in the race eith the entire INEOS so maybe that's why he lacked something

 

[dobrien]

If yesterday was Mathieu's peak level he has no chance in any race with Pogi present.

I don't believe that to be the case.

If it is, and Pogacar has also taken another leap, as you noted in your following paragraph, cycling is over as a competition as Pogacar simply can't lose.

In some respects at the moment we are already there; basically the only race we are talking about anyone having a chance against against Pog at this level is PR, where it seems as though one of the best in history at the event has to be in 100% shape to beat him. Don’t forget, last year was Pog’s FIRST ever Roubaix vs Mathieu’s vast experience, and was essentially a single overcooked corner away from at least going to the velodrome with Mathieu. Pog is just the right amount heavier, laser focused, and riding a massive wave of momentum; obviously it’s all opinion so don’t want to start any fights, I just think folks holding on to the idea that MVDP is the favorite for PR are engaging in wishful thinking. Just my .02.

 

[James M]

Ganna crashed earlier in the race eith the entire INEOS so maybe that's why he lacked something

Ganna wasnt part of that crash before capo mele. Fairly certain it was Turner, Kwiat and Swift.

 

[vappa]

Ganna wasnt part of that crash before capo mele. Fairly certain it was Turner, Kwiat and Swift.

I think 6 INEOS riders had to at least stop and were involved in some way, not sure if he himself crashed tho

 

[James M]

I think 6 INEOS riders had to at least stop and were involved in some way, not sure if he himself crashed tho

According to this link they clearly state Ganna wasnt involved even.Without re-watching im not 100% sure either btw

'Soon teams were riding in train formation to hold their leaders in position. Ineos had a collective crash but Filippo Ganna just avoided the trouble before the Capo Mele.'

The Inner Ring | The Moment Milan-Sanremo Was Won

inrng.com

 

[vappa]

According to this link they clearly state Ganna wasnt involved even.Without re-watching im not 100% sure either btw

'Soon teams were riding in train formation to hold their leaders in position. Ineos had a collective crash but Filippo Ganna just avoided the trouble before the Capo Mele.'

The Inner Ring | The Moment Milan-Sanremo Was Won

inrng.com

Alright, thanks

 

[Hugh Januss]

I think he was gucci. Its just that the effort to get back in cost something. Combine that with the slower start on Cipressa due to Pog and the others having to chase back and get to the front, yet still riding it faster overall meaning once they got up to speed it was insane fast. This time it was enough to crack him.

if we watch last year, Ganna closed much of the gap last year to Pog for him, this year Ganna couldnt hold the wheel meaning Mvdp was forced out in the wind to close inititaly himself. Small things add up when already on limit last year

Being on Pidcock's wheel is a lot less helpful than being on Ganna's wheel for a man of Van der Poel's stature.

 

[Netserk]

MVDP winning a sprint of a reduced bunch with sprinters in it would be very slim.

The most logical is to go with the move you are in, when you are ahead. You still have a chance to win if continuing rather than letting oneself be caught.

Otherwise, it is a mistake to follow the move in the first place.

if he had tanked the group after cipressa , they would get caught and then pogi would have smashed poggio

no chance for a sprint

van der poel needed to recover as much as possible until then

 

[Salvarani]

I think he was gucci. Its just that the effort to get back in cost something. Combine that with the slower start on Cipressa due to Pog and the others having to chase back and get to the front, yet still riding it faster overall meaning once they got up to speed it was insane fast. This time it was enough to crack him.

if we watch last year, Ganna closed much of the gap last year to Pog for him, this year Ganna couldnt hold the wheel meaning Mvdp was forced out in the wind to close inititaly himself. Small things add up when already on limit last year

I think the difference is just in the way how they rode Cipressa. Made it a longer sustained effort. Rather than sprinting up as in 2025. Where Ganna came back multiple times because Pog couldnt shake off MVDP and slowed down inbetween attempts. Each attempt becoming shorter and shorter.

 

[Salvarani]

if he had tanked the group after cipressa , they would get caught and then pogi would have smashed poggio

no chance for a sprint

van der poel needed to recover as much as possible until then

Pog wouldnt have been able to get much of gap there and how would that have been better for MVDP?

MVDP just hoped he could stay on in Poggio as last year and that was his best bet as it played out, if he has to recover he is toast anyway. No matter what happens.

Tanking the group makes no sense. Unless Philipsen is behind and that is who he is riding for.

 

[Netserk]

Pog wouldnt have been able to get much of gap there and how would that have been better for MVDP?

MVDP just hoped he could stay on in Poggio as last year and that was his best bet as it played out, if he has to recover he is toast anyway. No matter what happens.

Tanking the group makes no sense. Unless Philipsen is behind and that is who he is riding for.

pogi would easily gap everyone he gapped on cipressa again by attacking from the bottom

van der poel needs recovery the most , he is much much much worse than pogi over longer efforts

 

[Salvarani]

pogi would easily gap everyone he gapped on cipressa again by attacking from the bottom

van der poel needs recovery the most , he is much much much worse than pogi over longer efforts

Thats not given at all. Saying it like it is a fact, doesnt make it true. I dont think he would have been able to do that. Pidcock might have still been able to follow and others as well. It would have likely came back to a smaller group or someone escaping on the descent. A lot more unpredictable.

I think that is exactly why UAE and Pog rode Cipressa as more of a longer effort, rather than multiple short accelerations as last year. Maybe it just wore MVDP out.

Anyway, MVDPs chance doesnt increase by tanking the group and letting everyone back. Especially not after being deep into a big effort and move. He has committed.

His probability to win decreases by a lot and it makes no sense to do that, unless Philipsen is behind and MVDP decides to ride for him.

 

[Netserk]

Thats not given at all. Saying it like it is a fact, doesnt make it true. I dont think he would have been able to do that. Pidcock might have still been able to follow and others as well. It would have likely came back to a smaller group or someone escaping on the descent. A lot more unpredictable.

I think that is exactly why UAE and Pog rode Cipressa as more of a longer effort, rather than multiple short accelerations as last year. Maybe it just wore MVDP out.

Anyway, MVDPs chance doesnt increase by tanking the group and letting everyone back. Especially not after being deep into a big effort and move. He has committed.

His probability to win decreases by a lot and it makes no sense to do that, unless Philipsen is behind and MVDP decides to ride for him.

his first finish line is at the top of poggio

especially after cipressa its abundantly clear that pogi is super strong and the single biggest block for van der poel is not getting dropped on poggio

no one in the chase group makes that harder for him

rest makes it easier , pulling makes it harder

 

[Salvarani]

his first finish line is at the top of poggio

especially after cipressa its abundantly clear that pogi is super strong and the single biggest block for van der poel is not getting dropped on poggio

no one in the chase group makes that harder for him

rest makes it easier , pulling makes it harder

You cant convince me tanking the group and letting everyone back is somehow favorable for him as it played out.

He hoped he would have been able to do as last year, it just didnt work. He still skipped turns and wasnt long on the front. He tried conserving.

As he couldnt follow, he would have had no better chance from a bigger group with faster guys in the end.

His best bet was to committ. Only thing changing this would have been if Philipsen is behind and he sacrifices himself for him.

 

[Didinho]

As one of the biggest fans of Mathieu for over 10 years I could already see by the way he had to go around the peloton, fighting alone to get there after coming back with Philipsen. It wasn’t as smooth as he normally could do alone. With the Cipressa ridden hard I also saw Pogi keep pushing the first km’s of the descent. I’ve never seen Mathieu having issues before holding wheels in a downhill. Normally he excels there and recover better than others. That’s when you’re on the limit and don’t have any extra energy left. He also skipped a couple turns on the flat before riding with them. I hoped he could’ve overcome this but it didn’t looked good anymore and I knew it would been difficult to hold their wheel on the Poggio.

Also I don’t think this will translate in a bad Ronde and/or Roubaix. His level was as good as he could, the circumstances were not in his favor anymore. If everything is okay from the crash, I expect him to battle close again with Pogi.

 

[Barkintheeye]

In some respects at the moment we are already there; basically the only race we are talking about anyone having a chance against against Pog at this level is PR, where it seems as though one of the best in history at the event has to be in 100% shape to beat him. Don’t forget, last year was Pog’s FIRST ever Roubaix vs Mathieu’s vast experience, and was essentially a single overcooked corner away from at least going to the velodrome with Mathieu. Pog is just the right amount heavier, laser focused, and riding a massive wave of momentum; obviously it’s all opinion so don’t want to start any fights, I just think folks holding on to the idea that MVDP is the favorite for PR are engaging in wishful thinking. Just my .02.

Unfortunately I have to agree. Unless MVDP had a really crappy day or was more affected by the crash than what the cameras showed he is clearly off by quite many percentage in power. He still is exceptional on off road and cobbles but Pog outweighs that advantage by supreme power. He looks ridiculously strong and would have easily ridden Piddles off his wheel also without the crash. Imagine solo riding from the start of Cipressa. I’m not liking it at all and I think P-R is also going to be a similar show… for good and for bad.