I have no clue where you see so many chances? Stage 2 is to difficult, stage 3 has more than 4000 meters of altitude, stage 4 is more a medium mountain stage with some "longer" climbs, than punchy hills, so also no. Stage 9 is a pure medium mountain stage, I don't see him survive there if stronger climbers are with him. Stage 17 is pure a sprint stage. Only stage 21 he has a big chance. But all depends on the racing, last year was extra difficult with the rain and the stage has been made a bit easier than last year. So, it will be more difficult to solo to the finish there. In a group he can still win, but there is always the risk of other fast people surviving in that case.