The Race for Green: The Points Classification.

[auscyclefan94]

The Race for Green: The Points Classification.

Before I talk about favourites, I just thought I would break down the points for people who may not understand the new system and some facts about the Points Classification.

Prize money for winner: 25,000 euros
Overall prize pool: 145,400 euros.

The tour organisers have said they wanted more interest in the intermediate sprints and for them to serve a bigger contributor to the way the winner of the Points classification wins and that sprinters don't just feature during the end of stages. Therefore, the 1st 15 riders to corss the line at the intermediate sprints in each stage will receive points.

Intermediate Sprint Points breakdown: 20 for 1st place, 17 for 2nd place then 15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2 and 1.

Another change is the amount of points a rider gets at the finishes of the different classification of stages. Because there will be less intermediate sprints, the tour has decided to increase the amount of points at the finish of stages for example the amount of points for Flat stages for the winner was 35 in 2010 but is now 45 in 2011. Going on this system, Cavendish would of won the Green jersey last year.

Flat stages: 45 points, 35,30,36,33,30,18,16,14,12,10,8,6,4 and 2 points. Stages 1,3,4,5,6,7,10,11,15 and 21
Mid level stages: 30 points,25,22,19,17,15,13,11,9,7,6,5,4,3 and 2 points. Stages 8,9,13 and 16
Mountain stages:20 points,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2 and 1. Stages 12,14,17,18 and 19
Time trial stages:20 points,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2 and 1. Stage 20

So who are the favourites?
Cavendish, Farrar, Greipel, Petacchi, Boasson Hagen, Rojas and one person who I have been thinking of to surprise people is Gilbert.

One reason I have been thinking of Gilbert (if he decides to go for it) is that stages 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 (to a lesser degree) and 9 (to a lesser degree) are possible for him to score maximum points where sprinters won't many if any on those stages. He's the type of rider who could do it.

This thread is to discuss the Green Jersey only. The main source I used was "The Official Guide 2011 Tour de France" published by Ride Media.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Petacchi is climbing well enough this season that he'll always finish high up in the flat stages which cavendish will be present and gain margins on Cav in slightly tougher finishes.

 

[nvpacchi]

This may be the best way for eternal 2nd place Rojas Gil to actually give himself a chance, especially if there's some sprint points available right after a hill (or a bump) that Cavendish will severely struggle staying on the front of.

 

[maltiv]

This may be the best way for eternal 2nd place Rojas Gil to actually give himself a chance, especially if there's some sprint points available right after a hill (or a bump) that Cavendish will severely struggle staying on the front of.

Don't think he's good enough in the completely flat, fast sprints, where he will struggle to make the top 5.

It doesn't look to great for Cavendish, if his terrible climbing form continues then he will lose a lot of points to the stronger sprinters on quite a few stages. Petacchi should probably win this in his Giro form. EBH could definitely challenge if he tries, but that would greatly reduce his chances of actually getting a stage victory so ultimately I don't think he will go for it unless he wins one of the first stages.

 

[Gloin22]

Don't think he's good enough in the completely flat, fast sprints, where he will struggle to make the top 5.

It doesn't look to great for Cavendish, if his terrible climbing form continues then he will lose a lot of points to the stronger sprinters on quite a few stages. Petacchi should probably win this in his Giro form. EBH could definitely challenge if he tries, but that would greatly reduce his chances of actually getting a stage victory so ultimately I don't think he will go for it unless he wins one of the first stages.

TTT would be a stage win though

 

[Mambo95]

EBH could definitely challenge if he tries, but that would greatly reduce his chances of actually getting a stage victory so ultimately I don't think he will go for it unless he wins one of the first stages.

I don't think he will try. Sky (Rod Ellingworth) have said they're likely to take one of Swift or Henderson as their lead sprinter.

 

[TeoSheva]

I'm going for Gilbert. If he wants it, he will get it!

 

[auscyclefan94]

I thought there would be more support for Petacchi. peta still is super quick yet he is climbing really good and could get 30 points in stages where Cav will get nothing.

 

[Magnus]

I'm guessing that flat stages are 45, 35, 30, 26, 23, 20....?

 

[will10]

Cav me thinks

 

[hscoach2]

The Race for Green: The Points Classification.


The tour organisers have said they wanted more interest in the intermediate sprints and for them to serve a bigger contributor to the way the winner of the Points classification wins and that sprinters don't just feature during the end of stages. Therefore, the 1st 15 riders to corss the line at the intermediate sprints in each stage will receive points.

Intermediate Sprint Points breakdown: 20 for 1st place, 17 for 2nd place then 15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2 and 1.

Wow. I hadn't heard of such a huge change to the Intermediate sprint points. The Green jersey could end up going the way of the polka-dot...to an escaping opportunist...I think that's way too radical a change...I could see maybe 10, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 or something similar, but 20 points for an Intermediate sprint?!?

You did mention fewer Intermediate sprints though..maybe one per stage....NOPE, I still don't like it. You'll leave people wondering why some no-name is leading the Green jersey.

 

[Potomac]

Petachhi because, as others have pointed out above, he will take significant points on stages where Cav takes none.

I'm curious if the changes intermediate point availability will change how a stage is played out. Bigger breaks? Smaller breaks?

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Wow. I hadn't heard of such a huge change to the Intermediate sprint points. The Green jersey could end up going the way of the polka-dot...to an escaping opportunist...I think that's way too radical a change...I could see maybe 10, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 or something similar, but 20 points for an Intermediate sprint?!?

You did mention fewer Intermediate sprints though..maybe one per stage....NOPE, I still don't like it. You'll leave people wondering why some no-name is leading the Green jersey.

I doubt that it will go to a breakaway specialist because, unlike the polka-dot jersey, the amount of points that one can get before tghe finish will always be less than the points available at the finish. The KOM jersey is often won when someone does a day-long break where they capture max points up every climb; however, in the points competition, there would only be one opportunity per stage to score points.

 

[El Pistolero]

Trust me the KoM competition won't be one by an breakaway cyclist this year. And certainly not one that can't climb with the best.

 

[just some guy]

Trust me the KoM competition won't be one by an breakaway cyclist this year. And certainly not one that can't climb with the best.

Yep, that was Soler was going to be my guy can climb with the best and win points along the way.

A GC rider type will win the KOM this year VDB2 maybe - if it gets ugly in the 1st week to 10 days maybe.

 

[ferryman]

Trust me the KoM competition won't be one by an breakaway cyclist this year. And certainly not one that can't climb with the best.

Please expand on your certainty. It looks to me that, as usual, all of the mountain stages are only going to be raced for the GC on the final climb. So, plenty of scope for a grand escape or two.

 

[jobiwan]

Please expand on your certainty. It looks to me that, as usual, all of the mountain stages are only going to be raced for the GC on the final climb. So, plenty of scope for a grand escape or two.

With this new system, it'll take about 8 grand escapes for the non climbers.
I'm going to give the best analysis I can as to why a GC guy will win this, so bear with me.

Take the Pyrenees stages. I shall use Voeckler as an example.

Stage 12:
There is a new Cat 1 mountain (can't remember name), the HC Tourmalet, and the HC Luz Ardiden.
Say Voeckler goes in a breakaway and picks up max points on the first 2 climbs. He's now got 35 points, and then he gets caught.
Contador or Schleck wins, and BOOM! they lead the KOM.

Stage 13:
Just the HC Col d'Aubisque.
In recent years, Voeckler could be the first over the top and get 40 points, because it was the last HC, 1, or 2 cat climb of the day. But since there are only double points on summit finishes, he only gets 20 points.

Stage 14:
5 categorized climbs before the Plateau de Beille.
In theory, Voeckler could get a max 54 points before the finale. Yet if Contador or Schleck wins, they pick up 40 points, almost negating everything Voeckler did.

It is much more likely that a GC guy wins the KOM with this year's emphasis on the summit finishes.
It is still possible for someone like Voeckler to win the KOM, but he will have to go in almost every break in the Massif Central, Pyrenees, and the Alps.
However, the GC guys can get massive points just by finishing high on just 4 climbs.

Therefore, I believe it will be a Contador/Schleck type guy. Maybe JVDB.

As for the green jersey, Cav not winning this would be a huge disappointment. (For me, him, and Prudhomme!)

 

[taiwan]

Said Farrar, but I'm thinking of Rojas now. Versatile and in shape. I wonder about Petacchi's form.

 

[greenedge]

No Goss or Hushovd up. It will be a good card for Cav and Farrar to play on harder stages. Cav otherwise.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Goss will get the odd chance but ultimately I think he'll be working for Cav. Hushovd said he'll be working for Farrar to win Green and Thor doesn't have the top end speed anymore.

I think there is a chance that Alessandro Petacchi could be in contention for stage 1, 5 and 6 were on those stages I don't see Cav being up there. He'll always be around the mark on the other sprint stages but Alessandro scoring on stages that Cav won't be at the finish will be Cav's undoing for Green.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Same as previous years in that if Cav really wants green, he'll take it. Of the stages he won't be trying to win, I make it 4 that he'll be able to make the intermediate sprint with the main bunch. There'll be a break ahead, but there'll be some points up for grabs. If he wants to spend the energy going for these points, the green will be his, although the extra effort may cost him a stage or so, overall.

He'll probably not bother trying for these, but will still probably win green - unless someone like Petacchi or Hushovd have a really good year again, ie. they come 2nd or 3rd on every sprint (I don't think that will happen, as there doesn't seem to be an awful lot between a lot of the other guys these days), win a stage somewhere and pick up some intermediate stuff.

 

[Swabian Lass]

I'd like to see Petacchi win, but on balance I think Cavendish. I think that HTC will be desperate for him to win it this year, as it'll be their last chance with him (if the stories are to be believed). They'll shut down breakaways on every stage where they think he's got an outside chance. Could make for some very boring racing, yawn....

 

[ferryman]

Same as previous years in that if Cav really wants green, he'll take it. Of the stages he won't be trying to win, I make it 4 that he'll be able to make the intermediate sprint with the main bunch. There'll be a break ahead, but there'll be some points up for grabs. If he wants to spend the energy going for these points, the green will be his, although the extra effort may cost him a stage or so, overall.

He'll probably not bother trying for these, but will still probably win green - unless someone like Petacchi or Hushovd have a really good year again, ie. they come 2nd or 3rd on every sprint (I don't think that will happen, as there doesn't seem to be an awful lot between a lot of the other guys these days), win a stage somewhere and pick up some intermediate stuff.

Remind me which previous years Chav has won Green

 

[auscyclefan94]

Renshaw has said that the 1st stage is quite hard and that he and Cav are liekly to lose 30 seconds. That rules out cav for stages 1,2,4 and 6. I really don't see him taking Green.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Remind me which previous years Chav has won Green

Remind me where I said he had.