The Race for Green: The Points Classification.

[Bavarianrider]

Prudhomme
What a bull**** regulation

 

[El Pistolero]

I voted Phil because there's not really all that much flat stages Cav can win here.

Although the intermediate sprints is heavily in favor of sprinters now. Breaks will only get away till after the intermediate sprint. Which does at least mean we'll see some breaks forming on live TV.

 

[jobiwan]

I voted Phil because there's not really all that much flat stages Cav can win here.

Although the intermediate sprints is heavily in favor of sprinters now. Breaks will only get away till after the intermediate sprint. Which does at least mean we'll see some breaks forming on live TV.

On some stages yes, but other stages the sprint isn't till near the end.

Stage 7:

Stage 15:

On these stages if the sprinters want these intermediates sprints we'll either see breaks get caught real early, or no breaks at all.

 

[Frosty]

On some stages yes, but other stages the sprint isn't till near the end.

Stage 7:

Stage 15:

On these stages if the sprinters want these intermediates sprints we'll either see breaks get caught real early, or no breaks at all.

I think that breaks will get away on both stages. No-one is going to be able to stop attacks all day. A break will get away and it may be pulled back before the intermediate sprint. However, if it is only a small break then the peloton will be racing for fourth which still gives a lot of points. The difference between 4th and 5th isnt as big as between 1st and 2nd so Cav (presumably) would prefer it to be pulled back but the team may find it tough to pull back one break, keep the pace high towards the end and then set up the sprint.

Im unsure how many people will be doing the intermediate sprint. Will we see 10 guys all thinking they have a chance of the points jersey either in the first few stages or over the tour as a whole sprinting on the first stage? Assuming Cav is on top form and wins then this would be to his advantage, ie Hushovd rather than coming one or two places behind Cav could come 3, 4 or 5 lower.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I just don't see there being enough stages for Cav to win. Interstingly Renshaw said they weren't going to bother doing any chasing at all on Stage 1 knowing that their sprinter Cav won't be up there in the finish.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

On the KOM, and the Voeckler/Conti/Schleck analogy... that only works if there are time bonuses at the end that encourage the GC men to catch the breakaway. If Voeckler is no GC threat then there is every chance of him staying away to win on the HC finish or stay long enough to pick up a few points there anyway.

On green and those intermediate stages: if HTC, Lampre or whoever pull the break back for the sprint then a new, fresher break could go after the sprint, and some fresh guys have more chance of holding the péloton off than the guys who've been out there for 190km already. The chance is next to none whatsoever, but that's still too much for the sprint teams of the Tour de France.

Hence I reckon that they'll let a smallish group go, and they'll be content to fight over 4th or 5th place at the intermediate sprint. Either that or it will go the way of the Intergiro, with secondary sprinters getting into breaks to compete then soft-pedalling back to the péloton to compete for the main sprint - for a JJ Rojas or somebody like that, 20 points for the sprint then, say, 9th in the bunch sprint, could be better than placing 5th in the bunch sprint, especially if he can get intermediate sprint points in hillier stages that the likes of Cavendish can't.

 

[cineteq]

I think Sagan has more of a chance than Cavendish

 

[maltiv]

I just don't see there being enough stages for Cav to win. Interstingly Renshaw said they weren't going to bother doing any chasing at all on Stage 1 knowing that their sprinter Cav won't be up there in the finish.

What about Matt Goss? I thought he was going to the TDF, and surely stage 1 should suit him perfectly.

 

[hatcher]

maltiv, are you hoping Sky don't pick a sprinter and Hagen goes all out for green, or are you hoping they use him for certain stages?

 

[maltiv]

maltiv, are you hoping Sky don't pick a sprinter and Hagen goes all out for green, or are you hoping they use him for certain stages?

I hope they bring either Swift or Henderson. If EBH wins one of the first stages, most likely stage 1, then he should go for green with the assistance of Swift/Henderson. If he doesn't then I hope he forgets the green and focuses on getting a stage from a breakaway.

 

[auscyclefan94]

What about Matt Goss? I thought he was going to the TDF, and surely stage 1 should suit him perfectly.

Well his spot isn't certain and he isn't listed in the squad for the tour according to cycling weekly. He should be there but I am not sure if he will. Maybe in a similar situation as other australians who may have found themselves less in favour with teams after GreenEdge talks.

 

[greenedge]

He is riding the TDF, they have said so on CN and he seems quite confident of riding it. CyclingWeekly is British as well and not in this instance updated weekly. Get some photos of the main contenders at the start so we can have a full discussion about them.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'd be very surprised if Goss competes for it since he won't be right up there in too many bunch sprints if he's working for Cavendish (especially if Renshaw retains his last leadout position).

In which case, Rojas can climb better than him which will be a help for the intermediates, and though Goss is the faster of the two, Rojas won't have anybody stopping him from riding for himself to place in the bunch sprints. Sure, Goss could win an intermediate sprint between the two (though there would probably not be more than a couple of sprinters per break), but will probably not win more than he would lose if the sprint is after a climb and if Rojas is able to compete for the bunch sprint whereas Goss is second leadout.

I think Goss is a better rider than Rojas and his palmarès bears that out. But I think Rojas is a better bet than Goss for the green jersey on the current rules.

 

[seaby71]

I agree. I think Rojas has an excellent chance for the green jersey. He will be big odds and worth a small gamble. In the past he always scores fairly well at the end of stages, now that there are incentives for the intermediate sprints we may find a second tear sprinter with a great chance to be up there for the green jersey.

 

[jobiwan]

On the KOM, and the Voeckler/Conti/Schleck analogy... that only works if there are time bonuses at the end that encourage the GC men to catch the breakaway. If Voeckler is no GC threat then there is every chance of him staying away to win on the HC finish or stay long enough to pick up a few points there anyway.

On green and those intermediate stages: if HTC, Lampre or whoever pull the break back for the sprint then a new, fresher break could go after the sprint, and some fresh guys have more chance of holding the péloton off than the guys who've been out there for 190km already. The chance is next to none whatsoever, but that's still too much for the sprint teams of the Tour de France.

Hence I reckon that they'll let a smallish group go, and they'll be content to fight over 4th or 5th place at the intermediate sprint. Either that or it will go the way of the Intergiro, with secondary sprinters getting into breaks to compete then soft-pedalling back to the péloton to compete for the main sprint - for a JJ Rojas or somebody like that, 20 points for the sprint then, say, 9th in the bunch sprint, could be better than placing 5th in the bunch sprint, especially if he can get intermediate sprint points in hillier stages that the likes of Cavendish can't.

Since the KOM was my analogy, I shall respond!

I believe you could be right about a Voeckler-type staying away, but:

The only stage that the break stayed away on a MTF was the stage to Ax-3-Domaines - the stage where Andy and Alberto did a track stand up the mountain. Had they actually raced, I do believe Riblon would have been caught. (It still was a great victory for him, however!)

The final climb up to Ax-3 was only 8 kms.
This years MTF's are:
13 km (Luz Ardiden)
16 km (Plateau de Beille)
23 km (Galibier)
14 km (Alpe)

I simply just can't seeing any breaks staying away on these climbs.
MAYBE Luz Ardiden, as the favorites may not want to go full blast.
But the other three, I just can't see the top guys not winning, time bonuses or not. I imagine Andy and Frank will be desperate for time on all of these mountains, so they'll race them hard and catch any breaks.

That's just how I see it happening. I may very well be wrong come July!

 

[BeachBum]

Voted for Gilbert, but I'll be rooting for ABC...Anybody But Cav

 

[roundabout]

Looking where the intermediate sprints are located it should be Cavendish all the way (if he wants it and improves the form).

Only on stages 9, 14 (and perhaps 17) are the intermediate sprints reachable for people like EBH/Rojas without being in the break while unreachable for Cavendish. And 9 would require a lot of effort as the middle 120 km are very tough.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The only stage that the break stayed away on a MTF was the stage to Ax-3-Domaines - the stage where Andy and Alberto did a track stand up the mountain. Had they actually raced, I do believe Riblon would have been caught. (It still was a great victory for him, however!)

The final climb up to Ax-3 was only 8 kms.
This years MTF's are:
13 km (Luz Ardiden)
16 km (Plateau de Beille)
23 km (Galibier)
14 km (Alpe)

However, on many other mountain stages, the break stayed away - though one of the breaks was of course joined by Andy and Alberto. How many genuine MTFs were there last year? Several GC-relevant stages were finished with the break staying away (Chavanel's 2nd, Casar, Voeckler, Fedrigo). The same thing happened in 2009 (Feillu's and Garate's MTF wins, plus Astarloza and Fedrigo) and 2008 (Gerrans' and Piepoli's MTF wins, plus Casar).

It may be harder for them with the MTFs, but it depends how interested the péloton are in chasing them (not very with no bonifications on the line) and how strong the climbers in the group are.

 

[roundabout]

Scenarios for a break staying away in the mountains

1. Someone like Moncoutie being in it who is great in defending the lead on the final climb

2. A good climber losing a lot of time in the first 11 (15,16 etc) days deliberately

3. A GC leader with a weak team (say Evans ) so that the pace might not be fast until later in the stage

4. A huge lead on GC so that there is no chance of a battle up the final climb

5.?

 

[WorldsGreatest]

Gilbert for Green!!!!!!!

 

[Karl Max]

I voted for Cavendish, I think he will win even if he is not my favourite rider, but he needs to improve his form . If he rides like he did in Tour de Suisse he will not win.

I hope for Farrer. It would be nice if he could win it and dedidcate the victory to Wouter Wylandt. I think it would be a great and very moving moment on the podium in Paris. But then again Farrer has not won a stage in the tour yet, but I think this would change if he gets Hushovd as his last lead out man for some stages in this tour. Hushovds experience and Farrers speed could be the x-factor for Farrer this year.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Tom. Boonen.

 

[just some guy]

Tom. Boonen.

You missed some words Tom Boonen will not win the points classification.

There that reads better

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Hushovds experience and Farrers speed could be the x-factor for Farrer this year.

I doubt it. Hushovd doesn't have Renshaw's experience at lead-outs (and probably not even his speed these days) and Farrar obviously doesn't have Cav's speed.

I think the best Farrar can hope for would be to win a stage that Cav messes up (he usually has one). I don't believe he has the ability to win intermediate points without sacrificing his ability to feature highly in the sprints, so I'd be amazed if he comes close to green. Would still be nice to see him win one stage and dedicate it to WW though.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Tom. Boonen.

I'm not even sure why he's there. He could win 10 if some of the other sprinters don't make the finish, but even then, he would probably find Petacchi there with him. 6 at a push, but I'd fancy Gilbert for that one. What else? I don't see another stage and he's got no chance of green.

Unless there's cobbles or an uphill finish that's too tough for Cav and not steep enough for Gilbert, of which there's neither in this Tour, his chances of winning anything aren't great.