Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[shadowrider]

I don't want to burden this discussion further, but on balance, the gravity of the situation dictates that Remco's weight is a pivotal variable, exerting substantial tonnage, sparking a multitude of hefty debates, and bearing massive consequences.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I totally agree with the first paragraph. Although losing (too) much weight did not happen during his recovery, but in the run-up to the Giro, in full training. He and his team have learned lessons from that.
Your reaction in the second paragraph is stupid. Of course he hasn't the physical traits of a sprinter. As he hasn't the physical traits of a climber either. Nor the fysical traits of skeletors. Just because he is small (in height) does not mean he is naturally a light person. Something we can all see and which he also told you "personally". Not the fact in absolute figures.
So, again. Evenepoel is gaining quicker and more weight than climbers and skeletors as Vingegaard and Roglic. During winter and during and after revalidation. He therefore has to work harder to control and reduce the weight gain. Such as other slightly heavier built riders, classic riders and even sprinters.

By following your weight and training model, it would not even make sense for Evenepoel to be at the start of the Tour. He would already collapse in the second week. Fortunately, he didn't do that and he will get a nice place of honor without any bad luck

I did not say it makes no sense for him to be at the TDF, i only said that he can't be at optimal GT weight (which according to me is not 63kg but well below that) AND be in the best shape. Simply because there is not enough time for both. He can be at the start in great form, but not at optimal weight. If he wants to be there at optimal weight (if i were to guess that would be somewhere around 61kg), he would -as discussed- need to lose weight too quickly which would have a negative impact on his form. He can go for GC with great form while weighing 63-64kg, but he will not even remotely be a match for Pogacar (or Vingegaard should he be ready). He could go for a top 10 spot, battle for top 5, maybe even podium. But many minutes behind Pog/Vinge.

As for "Although losing (too) much weight did not happen during his recovery, but in the run-up to the Giro, in full training. He and his team have learned lessons from that." This is categorically false! You can watch videos of his rehab at Lieven Maesschalck's atelier, where he was already FAR below the weight he now assumes as his "normal riding weight". As a result his team, as i have been saying all along, did NOT learn their lessons from that, but simply drew the wrong conclusions!

In February '21 he was interviewed by Ruben Van Gucht, he claimed he had been too skinny during his recovering months, which was an issue because he/they had not accounted for his body needing to recover.

Winter 2020-2021, please tell us again who is posting untruths.:

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[18-Valve. (pithy)]

He did recon the tour stage, and it is nothing like strade bianche.

The course is not that technical, but the road conditions are pretty damn bad in parts. I thought his comments that it was much ado about nothing were naive.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ok, so it is possible even if it isn't ideal. Galibier is very early in the race and 1 kilo heavier means almost 1 minute loss in this type of climb (according Lance).

Commonly assumed, 30 seconds per 1kg for 30 minutes of climbing. Assuming weight lost/gained is not (relevant) muscle tissue. Upper body muscle or fat. What people usually do not realise is that the energy wasted on earlier climbs, needs to be taken into consideration. On a flat unipuerto stage, you would lose 30s for a 30 minute climb, per extra kg. But if you needed to exert yourself on earlier climbs, the time you lose on the MTF may increase, meaning you could lose over 1 minute on a 30 minute MTF climb, because you were carrying 1 extra kg. Multiply that by 3kgs and 5 stages, and you are down 15 minutes in GC.

Galibier is a long climb, but the stage has quite a bit of climbing leading up to Galibier. So in this case the time loss per kg for this stage may well be more than 1 minute. So 2kg could mean nearly 3 minutes for the stage, and that is not even compared to Pog or Vinge, but simply to his own potential.

 

[AmRacer]

Commonly assumed, 30 seconds per 1kg for 30 minutes of climbing. Assuming weight lost/gained is not (relevant) muscle tissue. Upper body muscle or fat. What people usually do not realise is that the energy wasted on earlier climbs, needs to be taken into consideration. On a flat unipuerto stage, you would lose 30s for a 30 minute climb, per extra kg. But if you needed to exert yourself on earlier climbs, the time you lose on the MTF may increase, meaning you could lose over 1 minute on a 30 minute MTF climb, because you were carrying 1 extra kg. Multiply that by 3kgs and 5 stages, and you are down 15 minutes in GC.

So Pog and everyone else weighted too much the previous two editions. 😅

 

[Berniece]

Commonly assumed, 30 seconds per 1kg for 30 minutes of climbing. Assuming weight lost/gained is not (relevant) muscle tissue. Upper body muscle or fat. What people usually do not realise is that the energy wasted on earlier climbs, needs to be taken into consideration. On a flat unipuerto stage, you would lose 30s for a 30 minute climb, per extra kg. But if you needed to exert yourself on earlier climbs, the time you lose on the MTF may increase, meaning you could lose over 1 minute on a 30 minute MTF climb, because you were carrying 1 extra kg. Multiply that by 3kgs and 5 stages, and you are down 15 minutes in GC.

You're assuming it isn't possible to lose any wait by the third week without losing performance?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You're assuming it isn't possible to lose any wait by the third week without losing performance?

Nothing significant in terms of fighting for top spots. A few hundreds of grams maybe. If he aims to be 1kg lighter, and he's 250 grams shy, then sure. I don't believe anything over 1kg is possible without repercussions.

PS: there are also studies that show that weightloss at altitude could be quicker. I think Evenepoel himself once mentioned this a year or two ago, that it was easier for him to lose weight at altitude. How much without losing performance though, remains the question. I think muscle also breaks down faster at altitude, so it might help with getting rid of upper body muscle.

 

[red_flanders]

Please let the race start so there's something relevant to talk about.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

If the Euros is a foreshadowing of whats to come in the Tour de France than we'll see Pogacar and Vingegaard evenly matched after the 1:1 between Slovenia and Denmark on Sunday.

However this also means Remco is set to be worse in the Tour than Peter Sagan ... yeah, not a good sign for his fans. I think he should've just put his football boots back on and started this Euros for Belgium, can't be worse than Doku and Trossard stumbling around.
Send Eden Hazard to the Tour instead, he'll literally eat Vingegaard and Pogacar with ease. After Plugge's comments about riders drinking beer at the Tour I'm sure he is interested!

 

[Berniece]

Nothing significant in terms of fighting for top spots. A few hundreds of grams maybe. If he aims to be 1kg lighter, and he's 250 grams shy, then sure. I don't believe anything over 1kg is possible without repercussions.

PS: there are also studies that show that weightloss at altitude could be quicker. I think Evenepoel himself once mentioned this a year or two ago, that it was easier for him to lose weight at altitude. How much without losing performance though, remains the question. I think muscle also breaks down faster at altitude, so it might help with getting rid of upper body muscle.

I don't know enough about that to know what is actually possible. I want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Andre]

Oh man, I'm dizzy reading about weight. Remco's dietician has his hands full. I think he should just sleep at the Remco's residence; that would be easier to monitor all the calories coming in or coming out.

 

[Andre]

...I mean the arguments are so well written that I now believe everyone.

 

[houtdffan]

the big issue with the 2021 giro was as Lefevre said immediately afterward, they needed to teach that boy how to steer!

It wasn't his shape, etc. It was needing to do 70 km TTs on multiple stages to catch back up after being dropped for no reason on descents and on the gravel, due to bad positioning

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

the big issue with the 2021 giro was as Lefevre said immediately afterward, they needed to teach that boy how to steer!

It wasn't his shape, etc. It was needing to do 70 km TTs on multiple stages to catch back up after being dropped for no reason on descents and on the gravel, due to bad positioning

They have repeatedly made references to his weight in the Giro '21, and how that was not good (too low) for him, using his failure as evidence. Never did i hear them using any of the other explanations that were blatantly obvious, to explain his failure.

And while his bikehandling and (fear of) descending will have played a part, i don't think that was the main issue. It's been 2.5 years since Bernal crashed into a bus, he is now pushing better numbers (he says) than before his crash. But it took 2.5 years of slowly getting to where he is now. I can't remember having read anybody explaining his bad results of the past 18 months due to his weight being too low. Everybody obviously understood the severity of his crash and recovery, and understands it takes a long time to get back where he left off. But Evenepoel not immediately performing in his first race after 9 months, he surely failed because he was too skinny. It boggles my mind.

 

[houtdffan]

They have repeatedly made references to his weight in the Giro '21, and how that was not good (too low) for him, using his failure as evidence. Never did i hear them using any of the other explanations that were blatantly obvious, to explain his failure.

And while his bikehandling and (fear of) descending will have played a part, i don't think that was the main issue. It's been 2.5 years since Bernal crashed into a bus, he is now pushing better numbers (he says) than before his crash. But it took 2.5 years of slowly getting to where he is now. I can't remember having read anybody explaining his bad results of the past 18 months due to his weight being too low. Everybody obviously understood the severity of his crash and recovery, and understands it takes a long time to get back where he left off. But Evenepoel not immediately performing in his first race after 9 months, he surely failed because he was too skinny. It boggles my mind.

he did lack some TT power, but that may have been not due to spending much time on it.

Lefevre did discuss his BAD bike handling. Too bad he didn't pound it into the knuckleheads who think Remco failed due to weight. He wouldn't have won that giro. However, he likely top 5s if he had an amateur level of bike handing. Was painful to watch him keep getting dropped every time the road went down. Ullrich's great grandmother would have dropped him on a descent

As for 63kg. The only consolation is that the tour climbs are the classic long, gradual drags this year, except for Pla D'Adet. Of course, maybe he thinks the first TT is 55 km not 25 km... He has a 90s-00s tour build

 

[Extinction]

Worst thing I ever did for my cycling performance was go on a crash diet while training for an amateur race. I lost a stack of weight but most of it ended up being lean muscle. Was an absolute shell of myself during the race and it took me months to feel good on the bike again. In fact I've never regained my peak power and that was years ago.

Way too many posts here with a cartoonishly simplistic view of weight loss resulting in guaranteed performance gains

It's not about crash diets, but getting the weight down over the season to be at peak in July. At any rate, losing the last 2 kg for a pro cyclists does not trigger the effects you experienced. Fact is Remco was too bulky at the Dauphine and like that he won't do anything at the Tour.

 

[peterfin]

It's not about crash diets, but getting the weight down over the season to be at peak in July. At any rate, losing the last 2 kg for a pro cyclists does not trigger the effects you experienced. Fact is Remco was too bulky at the Dauphine and like that he won't do anything at the Tour.

Maybe we can also conclude that he was just not in top shape at the Dauphine? He won the TT on a terrain that's perfect for him so winning alone doesn't tell the whole story. Also, he is a diesel, his FTP is very high and he can count on that, but during the Dauphine he did not have the extra power to accelerate at his own pace without blowing up. His recovery after an anaerobic effort was still weak. He has work to do as he said.

 

[Extinction]

Maybe we can also conclude that he was just not in top shape at the Dauphine? He won the TT on a terrain that's perfect for him so winning alone doesn't tell the whole story. Also, he is a diesel, his FTP is very high and he can count on that, but during the Dauphine he did not have the extra power to accelerate at his own pace without blowing up. His recovery after an anaerobic effort was still weak. He has work to do as he said.

Oh, I fully agree that he was not on top form at the Dauphine. How could he have been after breaking his scapula at Itzulia? And he seemed to be riding himself into condition on the Dauphine climbs. If he was in crescendo and loses those last kg, he should be good at the Tour. What that means is hard to tell, having never ridden the Tour before. But he should be on a high level.

 

[Le Grand Doop]

Anyone know what the Belgian Nationals route is like?

I imagine Remco would rather skip it, stay at altitude, and not do all that travelling.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Anyone know what the Belgian Nationals route is like?

I imagine Remco would rather skip it, stay at altitude, and not do all that travelling.

It's in/around Zottegem. Evenepoel can win, so can plenty of others. It's 222km and 1800 altitude meters if ridewithgps.com is correct. That's nearly bang on the same amount of uphill per km, as Ronde Van Vlaanderen, but it's just 50km shorter, which makes quite the difference.

 

[Berniece]

Anyone know what the Belgian Nationals route is like?

I imagine Remco would rather skip it, stay at altitude, and not do all that travelling.

I don’t think he is allowed to miss it. Not sure, but I thought I read somewhere that he doesn’t have a choice and has to be there. Maybe someone else can clarify.

 

[AmRacer]

I don’t think he is allowed to miss it. Not sure, but I thought I read somewhere that he doesn’t have a choice and had to be there. Maybe someone else can clarify.

Not an ideal preparation for the Tour, he could've stayed at altitude camp a few more days.

 

[Berniece]

Not an ideal preparation for the Tour, he could've stayed at altitude camp a few more days.

Sure, but it wouldn't change that much. It won't be an excuse if he fails in the TDF.

 

[rghysens]

I don’t think he is allowed to miss it. Not sure, but I thought I read somewhere that he doesn’t have a choice and has to be there. Maybe someone else can clarify.

Every Belgian pro is obliged to participate in the national championship RR, only excuse is being ill.

 

[rghysens]

As for 63kg. The only consolation is that the tour climbs are the classic long, gradual drags this year, except for Pla D'Adet. Of course, maybe he thinks the first TT is 55 km not 25 km... He has a 90s-00s tour build

Or maybe it all doesn´t matter because Evenepoel feels he has to shift his focus to the olympics after his crash in itzulia and lacking some shape.
And given his performance in the past, I don´t think the long gradual drags are in his favor, even less so if above 2000m.