Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[red_flanders]

I wonder if the heat has played a role in these bad days. Both Remco and Mateo were unexpectedly off the pace. I didn't see much shade today, especially not on the Solour.

Yeah it was quite hot today. I know how much it affects me, and the bigger you are (Mateo) the worse it can be.

 

[KoopaCycling]

No idea about tomorrow. It's only a 25-30 minute effort. But being aero won't help much tomorrow.
I have no idea about what material best for him. regular bike, TT bike, combination.
I think given the limited amount of flat, i just ride on a regular bike. But what do I know.

If we look at today's final climb, it should be similar. With the exception that i'm hoping Remco will have a far better day.
I think i would already be very happy with an almeida like performance tomorrow. But after today it's hard to see him putting 1.30 into Onley and Vauquelin tomorrow. As for Lipo. I'm not sure what to make of him. Ever since last year Vuelta he basically came out of nowhere (for me). Which actually makes me think remco might want to go to red bull. as Lipo isn't that much younger and suddenly started making big strides once Roglic joined that team. And money and resources were put into GT battle.

 

[houtdffan]

He did struggle with heat in Suisse 2023 on one of the stages, right?

He did get a lot of bottles from both car and moto by the images. Didnt drink enough on the flat or cooled down every one and then? Was he too cooked by the sun/heat already by arriving to first climb? Recovered and maybe dealt with the heat bit better later.

Like his legs seemed decent in the end. He didnt collapse completely, after dropping quite early. Compared to other guys.

It is an odd one but there may be some explanations for it.

2022. Heat Stroke on the hilly stage

QS forgot to pack the ice that day

 

[Berniece]

What are everyone's thoughts on the time trial? How do you think Remco and his skill set do with the mountain course?

I think that if today was a bad day he'll finish 2nd tomorrow.

 

[AlpRaid]

Sounds like he had a bad day. Hope that's all it was. If he can defend the rest of the race, he can hang on to the podium. Lipo the only real threat left unless Remco loses it again.

hmm, u rarely recover from "heavy legs" in the mountains of the TDF.

would love to be proven wrong as soon as tomorrow tho.

 

[red_flanders]

hmm, u rarely recover from "heavy legs" in the mountains of the TDF.

would love to proven wrong as soon as tomorrow tho.

I dunno, it's such a subjective phrasing...one could argue he recovered today.

I'm not holding my breath, just hopeful. Didn't look great.

 

[KoopaCycling]

hmm, u rarely recover from "heavy legs" in the mountains of the TDF.

would love to proven wrong as soon as tomorrow tho.

In a way he might be lucky tomorrow is a short stage.

 

[Salvarani]

2022. Heat Stroke on the hilly stage

QS forgot to pack the ice that day

It almost feels like something similar had to have happened today.

Because if the legs were really bad (or he was empty on energy), dropping so early, he should have lost even more.

The most likely thing seems to be that he may have just struggled with the heat and the long flat in the sun was to his detriment arriving at the bottom of the first climb. Given we also saw him going through so many bottles from the images. Being at the car and getting bottles of the moto. Neutral service.

If not the heat, then the next few days should be even tougher.

Otherwise he should recover somewhat and they will improve on cooling him down.

 

[Karl Merckx]

Pretty sure it had nothing to do with heat. Like Red Rick said he can't go over the limit on a bad day. He looked pretty fresh at the finish all things considered.

 

[Salvarani]

Feel even more confident it may have been the heat.

 

[houtdffan]

It almost feels like something similar had to have happened today.

Because if the legs were really bad (or he was empty on energy), dropping so early, he should have lost even more.

The most likely thing seems to be that he may have just struggled with the heat and the long flat in the sun was to his detriment arriving at the bottom of the first climb. Given we also saw him going through so many bottles from the images. Being at the car and getting bottles of the moto. Neutral service.

If not the heat, then the next few days should be even tougher.

Otherwise he should recover somewhat and they will improve on cooling him down.

It did not look like a full on heat stroke this time. He was cooked for 2 more days after his heat stroke, the same as Armstrong was in 2003

Of course, this makes QS looks like total fools. They keep making the same damn mistakes over and over

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Considering he nearly rode 50km solo and only finished 1m25s behind Vingegaard who got dropped off 10k from the top, i would argue he did a better job, relatively speaking.

No idea about tomorrow. It's only a 25-30 minute effort. But being aero won't help much tomorrow.
I have no idea about what material best for him. regular bike, TT bike, combination.
I think given the limited amount of flat, i just ride on a regular bike. But what do I know.

If we look at today's final climb, it should be similar. With the exception that i'm hoping Remco will have a far better day.
I think i would already be very happy with an almeida like performance tomorrow. But after today it's hard to see him putting 1.30 into Onley and Vauquelin tomorrow. As for Lipo. I'm not sure what to make of him. Ever since last year Vuelta he basically came out of nowhere (for me). Which actually makes me think remco might want to go to red bull. as Lipo isn't that much younger and suddenly started making big strides once Roglic joined that team. And money and resources were put into GT battle.

TT bike all the way seems like the worst idea. I don't think you'll get much aero advantage on the climb at those speeds (~22kmh) while TT bikes weigh considerably more. In an ideal world, a bikechange would probably give the best result, start on TT, change bikes, road bike on the climb. I think you could win enough time on the TT bike on the flat to warrant a bikechange. Assuming the bikechange goes smoothly. A road bike with aerobars is also an option.

TT to roadbike change > roadbike + aerobars > road bike >> TT bike

Say you can do 59kmh on flat sections on a TT bike, and you could do the same sections 54kmh on a road bike, you would take 213 seconds on a TT bike the first 3.5km and 233 seconds on a road bike. So a 20 second difference, meaning a smooth bikechange could gain you a few seconds. But if something goes wrong, you would easily lose that time during the change.

 

[houtdffan]

Pretty sure it had nothing to do with heat. Like Red Rick said he can't go over the limit on a bad day. He looked pretty fresh at the finish all things considered.

If that's the case, then shame on Remco. He should look spent at the end of a hard mountain day.

He needs to go 5-10W higher on his power meter if that's the case that he's fresh at the finish

 

[houtdffan]

Considering he nearly rode 50km solo and only finished 1m25s behind Vingegaard who got dropped off 10k from the top, i would argue he did a better job, relatively speaking.


TT bike all the way seems like the worst idea. I don't think you'll get much aero advantage on the climb at those speeds (~22kmh) while TT bikes weigh considerably more. In an ideal world, a bikechange would probably give the best result, start on TT, change bikes, road bike on the climb. I think you could win enough time on the TT bike on the flat to warrant a bikechange. Assuming the bikechange goes smoothly. A road bike with aerobars is also an option.

TT to roadbike change > roadbike + aerobars > road bike >> TT bike

Say you can do 59kmh on flat sections on a TT bike, and you could do the same sections 54kmh on a road bike, you would take 213 seconds on a TT bike the first 3.5km and 233 seconds on a road bike. So a 20 second difference, meaning a smooth bikechange could gain you a few seconds. But if something goes wrong, you would easily lose that time during the change.

It's a whole 2-3km on the flat tomorrow.

Drunk Gouvenou did not count the first km of the climb tomorrow as a climb, even though it is around 5%

 

[Salvarani]

It did not look like a full on heat stroke this time. He was cooked for 2 more days after his heat stroke, the same as Armstrong was in 2003

Of course, this makes QS looks like total fools. They keep making the same damn mistakes over and over

Maybe the bottles worked to cool him down and he found his tempo.

He was still able to push on for like 1 hour and a half.

You dont do that if your legs are gone or you are done. He didnt bonk like some others did that dropped later.

To compromise with other takes. A combination of things.

However, from the changes with the gear... and removing the gold etc. I feel like they were worried about the heat. Even shaving his head. There are at least some coincidental things that can make one speculate that they thought it was going to be a problem, but he managed alright given the circumstances.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's a whole 2-3km on the flat tomorrow.

Drunk Gouvenou did not count the first km of the climb tomorrow as a climb, even though it is around 5%

Still, at 5% gradient you would also still get an aero advantage, just not as much. The speeds i mentioned are more like top speeds and not averages. Let's say the average on a road bike would be 50kmh and on the TT bike 55kmh, over just 3km (instead of 3.5), then the time gained would still be 20 seconds (196 s vs 216 s).

I still think a bikechange is a viable option, but staying on the TT bike is not the way to go.

 

[houtdffan]

Still, at 5% gradient you would also still get an aero advantage, just not as much. The speeds i mentioned are more like top speeds and not averages. Let's say the average on a road bike would be 50kmh and on the TT bike 55kmh, over just 3km (instead of 3.5), then the time gained would still be 20 seconds (196 s vs 216 s).

I still think a bikechange is a viable option, but staying on the TT bike is not the way to go.

I would think the aero bars may be a better option as on the shallow lower slopes, there is still some time to gain

When the TDF did Chamrousee in 2001, Armstrong used a road bike with aero bars, despite 14km of flat before the climb

 

[KoopaCycling]

I would go road bike all the way personally. But like i said, what do i know.
No doubt the experts did all the calculations.

 

[Red Rick]

I would think the aero bars may be a better option as on the shallow lower slopes, there is still some time to gain

When the TDF did Chamrousee in 2001, Armstrong used a road bike with aero bars, despite 14km of flat before the climb

2001 might as well be a century ago in regards to aero TT bikes.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I think the first part is too punchy for the TT bike, it goes: Short flat section, then 300 meters 6%, then short descent for about a kilometer, then a kilometer of flat, before the gradients start after less than 3 kilometers.

 

[Karl Merckx]

If that's the case, then shame on Remco. He should look spent at the end of a hard mountain day.

He needs to go 5-10W higher on his power meter if that's the case that he's fresh at the finish

you don't get it, if he could have been "less fresh" at the finish he would have

 

[Red Rick]

Any notion of 'freshness' after a 40 minute all out effort and a very hard day makes no sense. I don't think Evenepoel is the sharpest tool in the shed, but I doubt he simply forgot to push the pedals harder.

Low key dropping early possibly helped him overperform relative to his competition, this had been unipuerto I doubt he would have dropped Roglic for example, yet Roglic got completely cooked halfway.

Tomorrow is a completely opposite effort. Could be anywhere between 3rd and 10th really, but with today's it could be even worse. And he's not beating Vingegaard. Come on, he blew up completely and still put a minute into Evenepoel.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Any notion of 'freshness' after a 40 minute all out effort and a very hard day makes no sense. I don't think Evenepoel is the sharpest tool in the shed, but I doubt he simply forgot to push the pedals harder.

Low key dropping early possibly helped him overperform relative to his competition, this had been unipuerto I doubt he would have dropped Roglic for example, yet Roglic got completely cooked halfway.

Tomorrow is a completely opposite effort. Could be anywhere between 3rd and 10th really, but with today's it could be even worse. And he's not beating Vingegaard. Come on, he blew up completely and still put a minute into Evenepoel.

... who blew up an hour and a half earlier. Honestly, if today was just a bad day, i could still see him beat Vingegaard tomorrow. I'm not going to put money down on it, but i would certainly not rule it out. But i agree on it also being a possibility that he doesn't even come close.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

... who blew up an hour and a half earlier. Honestly, if today was just a bad day, i could still see him beat Vingegaard tomorrow. I'm not going to put money down on it, but i would certainly not rule it out. But i agree on it also being a possibility that he doesn't even come close.

But maybe Vingo will be better tomorrow. Trying to match Pogacar's pace (after his surge) cost him at the end.

 

[geisterhome]

No idea about tomorrow. It's only a 25-30 minute effort. But being aero won't help much tomorrow.
I have no idea about what material best for him. regular bike, TT bike, combination.
I think given the limited amount of flat, i just ride on a regular bike. But what do I know.

If we look at today's final climb, it should be similar. With the exception that i'm hoping Remco will have a far better day.
I think i would already be very happy with an almeida like performance tomorrow. But after today it's hard to see him putting 1.30 into Onley and Vauquelin tomorrow. As for Lipo. I'm not sure what to make of him. Ever since last year Vuelta he basically came out of nowhere (for me). Which actually makes me think remco might want to go to red bull. as Lipo isn't that much younger and suddenly started making big strides once Roglic joined that team. And money and resources were put into GT battle.

Probably it will be Lipo for the GTs and Remco for the classics and stages.