Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Traditionally, the TT has been 4 days before the RR, and it's been too close to really peak for both, especially if the TT had been very long.

Now it should be more doable, but with the difficulty of the road race, Pogacar may have done less work on the FTP for the ITT.

If Pogacar does one of his best TTs, it's not interesting, because he wins it easily

Evenepoel generally has larger margin in TTs, even at 70% form (when he flops in the mountains) he still smokes them. Pog can flop in TTs when not in top form but this route compensates for their normal TT dynamics.

 

[SafeBet]

Interview Koen Pelgrim, the performance coach of Evenepoel in HLN.

• Pogacar is his biggest opponent for the WC ITT on a course like this

Just so everybody knows what we're talking about:

 

[Berniece]

With this accumulation you need to be light.

Most likely they simply prioritized power first because it's the healthier and more secure thing to do, especially if he struggles with keeping his weight down for longer periods of time.

But I don't think it bodes well for his ITT at all.

It also depends heavily on how hard the race will be made. There are 6.000m of altitude to overcome, which is insane already, but if this is an oldschool WC where we get 5 riders from random countries getting 13min. And the race won't explode until Mount Kigali, or even after it, I think it's fine.

The ITT on the other hand is more difficult. Obviously with this weight he'll have a higher power output, and I also feel the course isn't as difficult as TDF'24 stage 21 for example. There are still a lot of flat sections, or sections that only go slightly uphill. Evenepoel probably needs to be ~30s ahead at the third time interval

 

[Red Rick]

Evenepoel generally has larger margin in TTs, even at 70% form (when he flops in the mountains) he still smokes them. Pog can flop in TTs when not in top form but this route compensates for their normal TT dynamics.

Flat, mid length TTs, yes. Really hard hilly TTs, much less so.

If we take 2021 for example, he was ofcourse considerably worse than now, but he lost the Olympic TT by over over 2 minutes while losing less than a minute on the flat WC ITT.

 

[Berflamand]

Just so everybody knows what we're talking about:

I really have a hard time judging this parcours when it comes to Remco vs Pog.

The (false flat) downhills don't look technical at all so I guess that should favor Remco with his aero advantage? The 6.6 km at 3,5% climb in the middle is probably not steep enough to give a significant advantage to Pog so I guess it comes down to the first Côte de Nyanza, the Côte de Peage and the Côte de Kimihurura.

Overall, I think I would see Pog as top favorite but I hope Remco will prove me wrong.

 

[Berflamand]

Flat, mid length TTs, yes. Really hard hilly TTs, much less so.

If we take 2021 for example, he was ofcourse considerably worse than now, but he lost the Olympic TT by over over 2 minutes while losing less than a minute on the flat WC ITT.

I'm not sure the 2021 Olympic TT is a good example. I think he completely botched his preparation for the Olympics that year. In the Road Race he was 49th at 10 minutes.

At the Worlds 2021 he was in much better shape (both at the Road Race and ITT).

 

[Jan the Man]

I still expect Evenepoel to win the ITT, but it will be very very close

I agree- TTs are Remcos domain. The parcours clearly means Pogacar has a better shot than otherwise and if the race was at end of a GT it would be a game changer, but this is a one off TT and I expect Remco to prevail.

 

[Berniece]

I really have a hard time judging this parcours when it comes to Remco vs Pog.

The (false flat) downhills don't look technical at all so I guess that should favor Remco with his aero advantage? The 6.6 km at 3,5% climb in the middle is probably not steep enough to give a significant advantage to Pog so I guess it comes down to the first Côte de Nyanza, the Côte de Peage and the Côte de Kimihurura.

Overall, I think I would see Pog as top favorite but I hope Remco will prove me wrong.

I think around 18km's of the stage is in favor of Evenepoel. Mostly flat sections or those that are very slightly uphill/downhill. Around 8km's of the stage is in favour of Pogacar with Cote de Peage, Kimihurura and the sections of Nyanza that are +4.5%. The rest of the stage it's a bit equal I guess.

So the question is, can Pogacar gain more time during 8km's of uphill at an average of 5.8% than Evenepoel on those 18km's.

 

[Berflamand]

I think around 18km's of the stage is in favor of Evenepoel. Mostly flat sections or those that are very slightly uphill/downhill. Around 8km's of the stage is in favour of Pogacar with Cote de Peage, Kimihurura and the sections of Nyanza that are +4.5%. The rest of the stage it's a bit equal I guess.

So the question is, can Pogacar gain more time during 8km's of uphill at an average of 5.8% than Evenepoel on those 18km's.

I think he can but I hope he can't.

 

[Berniece]

I think he can but I hope he can't.

It also depends on Evenepoel's form really. If both of them are in the same form as last year, Pogacar should win.

 

[AlpRaid]

for the ITT, it really depends on exactly at what climbing percentages Remco's better aero starts to lose out to Pog's greater W/Kg. Hard to know exactly -- a 3-5% climb may still be in Remco's favor, IDK. He matched or did better than Pog on the shorter steeper climb in the Dauphine ITT, but that was a poor ITT for Pog, so...

really hard to know at what point the route tilts the ITT towards Pog.

I cannot see anyone rivaling Pog in the road race. I think he could actually win with Lombardia 24 like gaps, if not more.

 

[Berniece]

for the ITT, it really depends on exactly at what climbing percentages Remco's better aero starts to lose out to Pog's greater W/Kg. Hard to know exactly -- a 3-5% climb may still be in Remco's favor, IDK. He matched or did better than Pog on the shorter steeper climb in the Dauphine ITT, but that was a poor ITT for Pog, so...

really hard to know at what point the route tilts the ITT towards Pog.

Yeah Dauphine wasn't a great benchmark for Pogacar. Wasn't he using a different bike position compared to TDF? He was only 16s behind Evenepoel in the TDF which is a better comparison. Obviously Evenepoel wasn't at his best there while Pogacar was, so maybe the real difference would be 20-30s in a completely flat ITT with both of them at their best.

It's nice that we got 4 timechecks in total though. We will know very quickly if Evenepoel and Pogacar are in good form.

 

[Red Rick]

for the ITT, it really depends on exactly at what climbing percentages Remco's better aero starts to lose out to Pog's greater W/Kg. Hard to know exactly -- a 3-5% climb may still be in Remco's favor, IDK. He matched or did better than Pog on the shorter steeper climb in the Dauphine ITT, but that was a poor ITT for Pog, so...

really hard to know at what point the route tilts the ITT towards Pog.

I cannot see anyone rivaling Pog in the road race. I think he could actually win with Lombardia 24 like gaps, if not more.

Pogacar was terrible in the Dauphine TT, and Evenepoel is going to be heavier as well.

3.5% should have gravity being over 2x the resistance of air resistance. Make of that what you will

 

[theyoungest]

It's a standalone time trial. That's always different from a stage race. It's advantage Evenepoel, AFAIC.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I don't know if Pogacar practiced his TT very much but I'm pretty sure if he did, he will win the TT by at least 30 seconds.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't know if Pogacar practiced his TT very much but I'm pretty sure if he did, he will win the TT by at least 30 seconds.

I think if he practiced his English, he could become the next president of the USA.

 

[AlpRaid]

I also don't really listen to the announcements coming from Remco camp regarding his form any more. They have shown to not be fully transparent in the past (for tactical or other reasons).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I also don't really listen to the announcements coming from Remco camp regarding his form any more. They have shown to not be fully transparent in the past (for tactical or other reasons).

Yeah. Unfortunately, usually it's other reasons, lol.

 

[Berniece]

I don't know if Pogacar practiced his TT very much but I'm pretty sure if he did, he will win the TT by at least 30 seconds.

Don't think it'll matter if he practiced his ITT, it'll come down to form

 

[peterfin]

Don't think it'll matter if he practiced his ITT, it'll come down to form

Yes and that is still a question mark. I am not that much wiser after his return to the races last week. It may be ok and according to plan but it's also not exceptional either. I neither have an idea how good Pogacar is but I have a feeling Remco needs to be top to beat him, even in the TT.

 

[Berniece]

Yes and that is still a question mark. I am not that much wiser after his return to the races last week. It may be ok and according to plan but it's also not exceptional either. I neither have an idea how good Pogacar is but I have a feeling Remco needs to be top to beat him, even in the TT.

Pogacar is probably also tired of switching jerseys when training on his normal bike and then stepping on his ITT bike

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar is probably also tired of switching jerseys when training on his normal bike and then stepping on his ITT bike

Strong motivation to win both WC titles.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Maybe I am not seeing this correctly but I think Pogacar is more beatable in the RR than the TT.
I think Remco has a chance in the RR due to Slovenia's weakness but in the TT, there is no tactical option, it's just pure power.

 

[Lefebre]

Ma boy, The Chosen One is training to win RR and the TT. I will be surprised if not happen

 

[Berniece]

Maybe I am not seeing this correctly but I think Pogacar is more beatable in the RR than the TT.
I think Remco has a chance in the RR due to Slovenia's weakness but in the TT, there is no tactical option, it's just pure power.

As if Evenepoel can attack without Pogacar immediately sticking to his wheel.