Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Panda Claws]

What surprised me was how Evenepoel led the chasing group all the way to the finish. You would think that someone like Yates would take over to minimize the gap but he didnt. Not sure if Remco is so much weaker than Bernal etc. as it appeared in the time gap.
Definitely don't think you can make sweeping conclusions about him not handling the cold because of the way he looked. Sagan never looks like he is dying but then just Drops. Voigt made a name out of An exaggerated painface that made it look like he could go deeper in the red than others.

 

[Luthor]

I'm not really sure what you're even arguing here. Yeah, if circumstances were different, and there was another km of climbing or whatever, maybe the gap would have been bigger, maybe Evenepoel would have come back (definitely possible imo), maybe someone else would have cracked, who knows...

I'm not the one arguing here, you're the one quoting me and disagreeing with my opinion. Some people think the gap could be bigger and I agree. I already said the circumstances that would've probably impacted and they have nothing to do with changing the route or Evenepoel.

Evenepoel might have recovered the gap on a longer climb indeed but I guess we would never know. What's important is that he looked solid even on a hard day.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Kilometre 0 – Remco, the reboot

Remco Evenepoel returned to racing at the Giro d'Italia, after nine months out with injury, and finished 7th in the opening time trial.

audioboom.com

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

What surprised me was how Evenepoel led the chasing group all the way to the finish. You would think that someone like Yates would take over to minimize the gap but he didnt. Not sure if Remco is so much weaker than Bernal etc. as it appeared in the time gap.
Definitely don't think you can make sweeping conclusions about him not handling the cold because of the way he looked. Sagan never looks like he is dying but then just Drops. Voigt made a name out of An exaggerated painface that made it look like he could go deeper in the red than others.

Barring additional rain/snow stages I think Stage 4 will be remembered as a fairly brutal stage. Evenepoel struggled with the weather a bit but he was able to mitigate.

The one thing I haven't seen discussed is how much time would Bernal and/or Yates need to be ahead of Evenepoel assuming all three were healthy going into the final time trial.

I know we'd need to get there but it's something I've been wondering.

 

[Panda Claws]

Barring additional rain/snow stages I think Stage 4 will be remembered as a fairly brutal stage. Evenepoel struggled with the weather a bit but he was able to mitigate.

The one thing I haven't seen discussed is how much time would Bernal and/or Yates need to be ahead of Evenepoel assuming all three were healthy going into the final time trial.

I know we'd need to get there but it's something I've been wondering.

Yeah good question. 30 km is not that long.

Bernal will lose around 1'30" and Yates probably over 2'00".
Landa I could have seen losing perhaps 3'00".

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah good question. 30 km is not that long.

Bernal will lose around 1'30" and Yates probably over 2'00".
Landa I could have seen losing perhaps 3'00".

I think most TT's in GT's are now 30-35km. Unfortunately.

Bernal lost 1m37s to Alaphilippe over 27k on a terrain that should have been more suited to his strenghts in the Tour'19 which he won. So he should have been in very good form, probably as good as now, maybe better.

Decay should worsen as a TT gets longer and riders are more tired, so we can't simply extrapolate the opening ITT difference (which would be 73 seconds). At the end of a GT, the more natural TT'er should be in the advantage, and certainly Evenepoel. Why? Because his most defining trait as a TT'er is his low Cda, not his power output. Even when he's more tired at the end of a GT, and he will lose power just like anyone else, his aerodynamic efficiency should stay roughly the same. In short, he doesn't solely rely on his power output, or at least not as much as other riders do, to make a difference. Say Evenepoel has roughly the same power output as Bernal (which would probably not be that far off), but he is the much better TT'er, then the only explanation for that is that his build and TT position are much more efficient than Bernal's. Now say both lose 5% power on the TT bike due to fatigue over 3 weeks, for Bernal those 5% account for a lot more in terms of actual time since his power output is more determinative of his result, than in Evenepoel's case, who can also still fully rely on his low Cda even if he also loses 5% power. Furthermore, the slower both ride (due to the hypothetical 5% of power loss due to fatigue), the bigger the time gap will become. The slower they ride, the longer it takes to finish the TT, the bigger the time gap between both riders.

Theoretically and hypothetically. If Bernal's recovery over 3 weeks turns out to be superior, this entire exercise goes down the drain.

I think if Bernal wants to be sure he won't be caught (assuming both are still in good form and haven't shown signs of imploding) i think he should have a buffer of 2m30s. Even then a crash or puncture could decide otherwise. I'm not saying Bernal will lose 2m30s, but if i were him, i wouldn't feel comfortable with 2m or less. Don't forget 19 year old Evenepoel took 4-5 minutes out of Jungels, Martinez, Tratnik.. over 55k.

 

[johnymax]

I think most TT's in GT's are now 30-35km. Unfortunately.

Bernal lost 1m37s to Alaphilippe over 27k on a terrain that should have been more suited to his strenghts in the Tour'19 which he won. So he should have been in very good form, probably as good as now, maybe better.

Decay should worsen as a TT gets longer and riders are more tired, so we can't simply extrapolate the opening ITT difference (which would be 73 seconds). At the end of a GT, the more natural TT'er should be in the advantage, and certainly Evenepoel. Why? Because his most defining trait as a TT'er is his low Cda, not his power output. Even when he's more tired at the end of a GT, and he will lose power just like anyone else, his aerodynamic efficiency should stay roughly the same. In short, he doesn't solely rely on his power output, or at least not as much as other riders do, to make a difference. Say Evenepoel has roughly the same power output as Bernal (which would probably not be that far off), but he is the much better TT'er, then the only explanation for that is that his build and TT position are much more efficient than Bernal's. Now say both lose 5% power on the TT bike due to fatigue over 3 weeks, for Bernal those 5% account for a lot more in terms of actual time since his power output is more determinative of his result, than in Evenepoel's case, who can also still fully rely on his low Cda even if he also loses 5% power. Furthermore, the slower both ride (due to the hypothetical 5% of power loss due to fatigue), the bigger the time gap will become. The slower they ride, the longer it takes to finish the TT, the bigger the time gap between both riders.

Theoretically and hypothetically. If Bernal's recovery over 3 weeks turns out to be superior, this entire exercise goes down the drain.

I think if Bernal wants to be sure he won't be caught (assuming both are still in good form and haven't shown signs of imploding) i think he should have a buffer of 2m30s. Even then a crash or puncture could decide otherwise. I'm not saying Bernal will lose 2m30s, but if i were him, i wouldn't feel comfortable with 2m or less. Don't forget 19 year old Evenepoel took 4-5 minutes out of Jungels, Martinez, Tratnik.. over 55k.

Interesting thinking. Without looking too much into Cda and percentages of power loss, I was always of the impression (and I think the general consensus among cycling fans is pretty much the same) that the gaps between GC riders who have a strong TT and GC riders with a poor TT, get smaller if the ITT is towards the end of a GT. In other words, a climber/GC rider defends himself better if the ITT is on the last or the penultimate stage in comparison if the ITT was in the first week.

If I have to guess, yeah, I'd say somewhere around 1:30 - 2 minutes for Bernal. But I agree, he shouldn't feel comfortable with that advantage.

 

[Panda Claws]

Snippet

Thanks for the write-up. The part about cda and power is really interesting. I looked up Bernal's ITT'ing again and for some reason I thought he was better than he was.
Would be interesting to make a tierlist of GC TT'ers lmao.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Interesting thinking. Without looking too much into Cda and percentages of power loss, I was always of the impression (and I think the general consensus among cycling fans is pretty much the same) that the gaps between GC riders who have a strong TT and GC riders with a poor TT, get smaller if the ITT is towards the end of a GT. In other words, a climber/GC rider defends himself better if the ITT is on the last or the penultimate stage in comparison if the ITT was in the first week.

If I have to guess, yeah, I'd say somewhere around 1:30 - 2 minutes for Bernal. But I agree, he shouldn't feel comfortable with that advantage.

From how i see it, it kind of depends. Wiggins (let's take him as an example) wasn't particularly known for extraordinary low Cda, unlike Remco. At the end of a GT, Wiggins who was relatively heavy and not a natural climber, would likely have had to dig deeper than smaller natural climbers. Hence he would have been less fresh at the start of the TT at the end of a GT, compared to the climbers who suffered less. He would in fact likely have lost more power, relatively speaking, in the ITT. Combine that with the fact that for Wiggins his output was probably more determinative of his result compared to his Cda, he would in turn potentially have lost more of the advantage he had. If any of that makes any sense, then your point stands.
It will likely depend on the labor the riders have to do throughout. Say Tony Martin has to struggle on every mountain stage to meet the time limit, he will be more tired after 3 weeks than some climbers who rode for GC. But if Tony Martin can just take the bus every mountain stage without going in the red, and doesn't have to work his ass off for his team and can prepare for that final ITT, he'd likely widen the gap even more in the ITT.

Considering Remco's weight, which is not far from that of Bernal, and both are going for GC, my premise was that they would both suffer equally in the mountains. But like i said, "If Bernal's recovery over 3 weeks turns out to be superior, this entire exercise goes down the drain."

PS: that 5% was just a random number to make the point.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Interesting thinking. Without looking too much into Cda and percentages of power loss, I was always of the impression (and I think the general consensus among cycling fans is pretty much the same) that the gaps between GC riders who have a strong TT and GC riders with a poor TT, get smaller if the ITT is towards the end of a GT. In other words, a climber/GC rider defends himself better if the ITT is on the last or the penultimate stage in comparison if the ITT was in the first week.

If I have to guess, yeah, I'd say somewhere around 1:30 - 2 minutes for Bernal. But I agree, he shouldn't feel comfortable with that advantage.

From how i see it, it kind of depends. Wiggins (let's take him as an example) wasn't particularly known for extraordinary low Cda, unlike Remco. At the end of a GT, Wiggins who was relatively heavy and not a natural climber, would likely have had to dig deeper than smaller natural climbers. Hence he would have been less fresh at the start of the TT at the end of a GT, compared to the climbers who suffered less. He would in fact likely have lost more power, relatively speaking, in the ITT. Combine that with the fact that for Wiggins his output was probably more determinative of his result compared to his Cda, he would in turn potentially have lost more of the advantage he had. If any of that makes any sense, then your point stands.
It will likely depend on the labor the riders have to do throughout. Say Tony Martin has to struggle on every mountain stage to meet the time limit, he will be more tired after 3 weeks than some climbers who rode for GC. But if Tony Martin can just take the bus every mountain stage without going in the red, and doesn't have to work his ass off for his team and can prepare for that final ITT, he'd likely widen the gap even more in the ITT.

Considering Remco's weight, which is not far from that of Bernal, and both are going for GC, my premise was that they would both suffer equally in the mountains. But like i said, "If Bernal's recovery over 3 weeks turns out to be superior, this entire exercise goes down the drain."

PS: that 5% was just a random number to make the point.

I’m sure there’s an equation one could use to get a fairly accurate estimate.

We’ve seen that the leader’s jersey has often provided a bit of a bump.

Going last often provides assistance as well as the effort needed is known or least there are time checks that can assist the leader to gauge what is needed.

My guess is that keeping Remco within 2:00 or less was the baseline DQS strategy going into the Giro unless of course Remco were to feel amazing and would be to attack and not blow himself up.

The converse is that if Remco were to drop 5,6,7 minutes off the pace he would feel free to attack because he’d have nothing to lose.

 

[peterfin]

Because his most defining trait as a TT'er is his low Cda, not his power output. Even when he's more tired at the end of a GT, and he will lose power just like anyone else, his aerodynamic efficiency should stay roughly the same. In short, he doesn't solely rely on his power output, or at least not as much as other riders do, to make a difference. Say Evenepoel has roughly the same power output as Bernal (which would probably not be that far off), but he is the much better TT'er, then the only explanation for that is that his build and TT position are much more efficient than Bernal's. Now say both lose 5% power on the TT bike due to fatigue over 3 weeks, for Bernal those 5% account for a lot more in terms of actual time since his power output is more determinative of his result, than in Evenepoel's case, who can also still fully rely on his low Cda even if he also loses 5% power. Furthermore, the slower both ride (due to the hypothetical 5% of power loss due to fatigue), the bigger the time gap will become. The slower they ride, the longer it takes to finish the TT, the bigger the time gap between both riders.

The difference due to a power loss is beneficial for Evenepoel but not so much as you would think. On a flat terrain, the power of a cyclist is proportional to Cda times the third power of his speed. This excludes a small contribution of wheel friction, which is at 50-60 km/h about 3-5% of the total power needed and is about equal for drivers with similar bikes and weight. So basically a drop of 5% in power will result in a drop of 1 - (0.95)^(1/3) ~ 1.7% in speed for both drivers assuming their position (Cda) remains the same. As the total drive time is equal the distance divided by the average speed, both drivers will drive 1/0.987 ~ 1.7% longer, so the difference also becomes 1.7% more. An example: lets say that during the final time trail without power drop Evenepoel would set a time of 32min and Bernal 33min 30 s. Due to the drop in power, Evenepoel will set a time of 32min 32,64 s and Bernal 34 min 4,17 s. So the difference becomes 91,53s instead of 90s, less than 2s. So driving with less power (due to fatigue or length/difficulty of the effort) will benefit the person who has a higher speed in optimal conditions but its about seconds not tens of seconds.

I think that the main reason why we still see non-TT drivers excel on flat terrain during the last time trail of a GT is because of motivation and concentration. They are riding for the top 10 while many TT experts don't. The mental part of the game is very important. The ability to go in the red and endure the pain while keeping absolute focus on the track is demanding. And it is a matter of mindset, it's not just a decision you make consciously. The mind will subconsciously decide how much it's worth to endure this pain. I also believe this is where Evenepoel's strenght is comming from. Yes, he has that Cda advantage but his intrinsic determination is absolutely phenomenal. At least this was the case prior to his accident. If anything, that is what I want to see from him during this giro. He may come too short during the next few stages due to lack of competition but by the end of the giro I would like to see him rip things apart. I think his determination is a quality where he outshines Bernal.

 

[BlueRoads]

I think his determination is a quality where he outshines Bernal.

I think we can not determine determination from the outside. Sometimes you sure have the feeling some riders are more determined, but really, we have no idea. And I seriously dislike just claiming this based on - what? I can't see where Bernal has not been determined.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think we can not determine determination from the outside. Sometimes you sure have the feeling some riders are more determined, but really, we have no idea. And I seriously dislike just claiming this based on - what? I can't see where Bernal has not been determined.

Dudes determination couldn't even stop his back from hurting last year. Weak ass mentality, I tell you

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The difference due to a power loss is beneficial for Evenepoel but not so much as you would think. On a flat terrain, the power of a cyclist is proportional to Cda times the third power of his speed. This excludes a small contribution of wheel friction, which is at 50-60 km/h about 3-5% of the total power needed and is about equal for drivers with similar bikes and weight. So basically a drop of 5% in power will result in a drop of 1 - (0.95)^(1/3) ~ 1.7% in speed for both drivers assuming their position (Cda) remains the same. As the total drive time is equal the distance divided by the average speed, both drivers will drive 1/0.987 ~ 1.7% longer, so the difference also becomes 1.7% more. An example: lets say that during the final time trail without power drop Evenepoel would set a time of 32min and Bernal 33min 30 s. Due to the drop in power, Evenepoel will set a time of 32min 32,64 s and Bernal 34 min 4,17 s. So the difference becomes 91,53s instead of 90s, less than 2s. So driving with less power (due to fatigue or length/difficulty of the effort) will benefit the person who has a higher speed in optimal conditions but its about seconds not tens of seconds.

This makes sense and in retrospect, my theory was quite dumb. The relation between power and air resistance has to be a multiplication, not an addition. If he were to put no power on the pedals, he would not magically move forward due to being aero. I should probably go to bed sooner.

If we added headwind as a variable, that would again be in the advantage of the rider with the best Cda, if i'm correct.

@Panda Claws @johnymax sorry for wasting your time

 

[peterfin]

If we added headwind as a variable, that would again be in the advantage of the rider with the best Cda, if i'm correct.

If the rider with the best Cda has also the highest nominal speed in optimal conditions, that is correct yes. The speed relative to the wind sets the aerodynamic load. A rider will consume an almost equal amount of power when riding 50 km/h (no wind) or 40 km/h (with 10 km/h headwind on average). In practice it will be a bit less in the latter case as friction drag is proportional to the actual driving speed. In any case, the average speed of the riders goes down, which is beneficial for the rider with the highest speed in optimal (no wind) conditions.

I think we can not determine determination from the outside. Sometimes you sure have the feeling some riders are more determined, but really, we have no idea. And I seriously dislike just claiming this based on - what? I can't see where Bernal has not been determined.

I was not claiming it. I said I think it. I am following Evenepoel and not Bernal so maybe I cannot assess Bernal fully. What I do know is that Evenepoel has exceptional determination.

 

[Volderke]

Waiting for the haters to comment... (crickets)

 

[Bonimenier]

Waiting for the haters to comment... (crickets)

If Evenepoel rode for Masnada, Masnada would have easily won the stage.

 

[Panda Claws]

Waiting for the haters to comment... (crickets)

Yeah it's sometimes annoying that people have constantly typed 'wait until he rides a WT race' 'wait until it's not Tour de Pologne' and yet never have to publicly eat crow for it. But that's the internet for you.

 

[Gigs_98]

He is starting to look more and more dangerous. He was probably on the limit at the end, but his trajectory is pointing in the right direction and the race will be decided in the third week. If I was Bernal I would start to get worried.

 

[Valanga]

Done with just solid performances. This was actually really strong.
Was the idea to just follow Bernal and nothing more? Looked so easy for him...

 

[Panda Claws]

He is starting to look more and more dangerous. He was probably on the limit at the end, but his trajectory is pointing in the right direction and the race will be decided in the third week. If I was Bernal I would start to get worried.

Definitely starting to look like it will be a solid performance overall. And if it's not enough there is no shame in getting beaten by Bernal either. Definitely not considering the circumstances.

 

[Bonimenier]

Yeah it's sometimes annoying that people have constantly typed 'wait until he rides a WT race' 'wait until it's not Tour de Pologne' and yet never have to publicly eat crow for it. But that's the internet for you.

It's only the Giro... Wait till he rides the Tour.

 

[spalco]

Great job today, i'm really happy. Second strongest rider in the gc group (imo) very quick to respond to bernal's accelerations, alert and solid.

Very encouraging. And #2 in GC already!

 

[Volderke]

I feel he is still not at his very best, and rightfully is hesitant to work with a (very good) Bernal.
He could have well been distanced in the final 100 meters if he took pulls.

If (just if) he improves in the coming days (the terrain is mostly hilly in the weekend, but no superhard climbs), he has a good chance to fight for GC in the 3rd week, where ofcourse everything can still be turned upside down. Bernal has his terrain in that 3rd week, but at least I hope Remco is giving him good competition for the next week and a half, and if he then falters, it's still a decent fight.

In any way, I think he should go for the Maglia Rosa. If he holds it for a week (for example), it's already a big succes and morale boost.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Remco already won Giro according to his fans, since he already won, he should abandon and go the TDF to do the double, first man to do it before the tour finishes