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Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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Should we change the thread title?

  • Total voters
    137
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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Red Rick said:
Pretty much.

I'd still say don't blindly expect a GC cause Pogacar did, but it makes no sense not to ride one. Lefevre talks about winning a 55km WCITT but OMG GT IS TOO HARD
Click to expand...

Not sure how a 1h10m effort can be compared to a 3 week GT though.

I also think he won't surpass or even meet Pogacar's Vuelta (maybe not by a long shot). But i also think this years opposition in the Vuelta was nothing short of weak. There were only 4 actual contenders, and none of them would have been able to make the top 5 in the TDF, other than maybe Roglic.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Not sure how a 1h10m effort can be compared to a 3 week GT though.

I also think he won't surpass or even meet Pogacar's Vuelta (maybe not by a long shot). But i also think this years opposition in the Vuelta was nothing short of weak. There were only 4 actual contenders, and none of them would have been able to make the top 5 in the TDF, other than maybe Roglic.
Click to expand...
Tour field that finished was also weak tbh. Id rate Pog a lot higher tham a Kruijswijk tbh.

Basically the old guard is on the way out, 2 top dogs crash out of all GTs, only 2 guys do really well in 2 GTs, so overall the fields look suspect this year
 
KZD

KZD

Feb 21, 2019
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Tour seems to be out, according to the article.
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I don't think the Tour (at least the whole 3 weeks) makes sense considering that he is making the Olympics one of his major goals next season.

The Vuelta would be the best choice although he would probably arrive too tired at the Worlds but considering that this is an Olympic season I don't think he would mind much.

Curious to see if he races some Ardennes classics as well
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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Red Rick said:
Tour field that finished was also weak tbh. Id rate Pog a lot higher tham a Kruijswijk tbh.

Basically the old guard is on the way out, 2 top dogs crash out of all GTs, only 2 guys do really well in 2 GTs, so overall the fields look suspect this year
Click to expand...
Can't agree. Did you see who finished 2nd in the Vuelta? Obviously Pogacar's ceiling will be considerably higher than Kruijswijk's, but he wouldn't have finished better in TDF.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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I don't need to compare Vuelta Valverde to TDF Valverde. I know Valverde and what he's capable of. Even in a weak TDF field, there is no way he'd come remotely close to a podium at 39. I stand by my assessment, that the Vuelta had an immensely weak field. If next year's is similar, maybe Remco can target a top 10 spot. If he can take another step in his development by then, who knows. I think the main pitfalls for him will be to conserve energy, and to stay upright.
 
G

GuntherL

Jul 16, 2011
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Podium predictions for the time trial please.
Mine:
  1. Roglic
  2. Campenaerts
  3. Affini

I don't think Remco will stay on his bike on this course, especially in the wet (which is likely) Yes, I'm a pessimist. I took a day off anyway, because I desperately want to be wrong.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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GuntherL said:
Podium predictions for the time trial please.
Mine:
  1. Roglic
  2. Campenaerts
  3. Affini
I don't think Remco will stay on his bike on this course, especially in the wet (which is likely) Yes, I'm a pessimist. I took a day off anyway, because I desperately want to be wrong.
Click to expand...
There is a topic for the WC... maybe it's best to move this over there. Remco is actually a decent bikehandler, it's in group/peloton that he makes awkward decisions imho.
 
B

Bushman

Jun 3, 2012
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Can't agree. Did you see who finished 2nd in the Vuelta? Obviously Pogacar's ceiling will be considerably higher than Kruijswijk's, but he wouldn't have finished better in TDF.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, Kruijswijk finished 3rd in the Tour only 91 seconds behind Bernal and there is absolutely no doubt that Roglic is a better GT rider than Kruijswijk.

Also with Buchmann in 4th, Ala in 5th and Geraint Thomas not at his absolute top level in 2nd, let’s not pretend that the field in this year’s Tour was overwhelming.

Only Bernal and Pinot, who was very unlucky, were performing at the kind of level that you expect from a Tour de France winner.
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Not sure how a 1h10m effort can be compared to a 3 week GT though.

I also think he won't surpass or even meet Pogacar's Vuelta (maybe not by a long shot). But i also think this years opposition in the Vuelta was nothing short of weak. There were only 4 actual contenders, and none of them would have been able to make the top 5 in the TDF, other than maybe Roglic.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, Kruijswijk finished 3rd in the Tour only 91 seconds behind Bernal and there is absolutely no doubt that Roglic is a better GT rider than Kruijswijk.

Also with Buchmann in 4th, Ala in 5th and Geraint Thomas not at his absolute top level in 2nd, let’s not pretend that the field in this year’s Tour was overwhelming.

Only Bernal and Pinot, who was very unlucky, were performing at the kind of level that you expect from a Tour de France winner. The rest of the field was underwhelming (of course with the exception of Ala).
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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Bushman said:
On the other hand, Kruijswijk finished 3rd in the Tour only 91 seconds behind Bernal and there is absolutely no doubt that Roglic is a better GT rider than Kruijswijk.

Also with Buchmann in 4th, Ala in 5th and Geraint Thomas not at his absolute top level in 2nd, let’s not pretend that the field in this year’s Tour was overwhelming.

Only Bernal and Pinot, who was very unlucky, were performing at the kind of level that you expect from a Tour de France winner. The rest of the field was underwhelming (of course with the exception of Ala).
Click to expand...
The difference was, that at the TDF, there were a lot of potential podium candidates that crashed or failed. In the Vuelta, it was basically just those 4 guys + Pogacar. Before the TDF, even Fuglsang was going to be a contender, Buchmann was going to surprise, Bardet was going for it... you name 'm. In the Vuelta, the candidates only had to watch 4 other guys. This is completely different in the TDF. You and your team have to respond to many more attacks, because there are many more candidates for GC. The entire TDF is raced a lot harder, average speed is usually a lot higher. There are more classics style stages, where contenders have to remain 100% focussed not to crash or get dropped on a cobbled section or by crosswinds. I can not understand that so many people on this forum do not see the vast difference between riding the TDF for GC and riding a Vuelta for GC. Even sprint stages are raced a lot harder in TDF in general, that GC guys have to remain very vigilant not to crash or lose time. There is so much more to it than gradients and number of climbs. But i'm not going to get suckered into this again after the Roglic topic. People who wish to remain oblivious, can be my guest. I'm nog going to go further into this again.
 
B

Bushman

Jun 3, 2012
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
The difference was, that at the TDF, there were a lot of potential podium candidates that crashed or failed. In the Vuelta, it was basically just those 4 guys + Pogacar. Before the TDF, even Fuglsang was going to be a contender, Buchmann was going to surprise, Bardet was going for it... you name 'm. In the Vuelta, the candidates only had to watch 4 other guys. This is completely different in the TDF. You and your team have to respond to many more attacks, because there are many more candidates for GC. The entire TDF is raced a lot harder, average speed is usually a lot higher. There are more classics style stages, where contenders have to remain 100% focussed not to crash or get dropped on a cobbled section or by crosswinds. I can not understand that so many people on this forum do not see the vast difference between riding the TDF for GC and riding a Vuelta for GC. Even sprint stages are raced a lot harder in TDF in general, that GC guys have to remain very vigilant not to crash or lose time. There is so much more to it than gradients and number of climbs. But i'm not going to get suckered into this again after the Roglic topic. People who wish to remain oblivious, can be my guest. I'm nog going to go further into this again.
Click to expand...

Well, there’s no doubt that the Tour de France is the most difficult GT to win. As you say, it’s more stressful, there are lots of crashes, usually the level among the top contenders is a bit higher than in the Giro and Vuelta. I agree with all that.

But since you want to slander the field of this year’s Vuelta so much I think it’s only fair to have in mind that the competition in the Tour de France this year was also quite weak compared to most other years. And I don’t believe that Roglic is the only rider from this years Vuelta “with a chance for a top 5”. Roglic would have been a legitimate contender for the overall in this year’s TDF and it’s not unreasonable to say that Lopez or even Pogacar (with the shape they showed in La Vuelta) could have challenged Buchmann and Kruijswijk for placings in the top 5.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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Bushman said:
Well, there’s no doubt that the Tour de France is the most difficult GT to win. As you say, it’s more stressful, there are lots of crashes, usually the level among the top contenders is a bit higher than in the Giro and Vuelta. I agree with all that.

But since you want to slander the field of this year’s Vuelta so much I think it’s only fair to have in mind that the competition in the Tour de France this year was also quite weak compared to most other years. And I don’t believe that Roglic is the only rider from this years Vuelta “with a chance for a top 5”. Roglic would have been a legitimate contender for the overall in this year’s TDF and it’s not unreasonable to say that Lopez or even Pogacar (with the shape they showed in La Vuelta) could have challenged Buchmann and Kruijswijk for placings in the top 5.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. I don't think so (not by a long shot) but that's my opinion.
 
LesDiablesRouges

LesDiablesRouges

Jul 12, 2012
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Apparently, he'll be riding on a special bike tomorrow... Yet to be revealed. I have no idea whether he's talking about technological enhancements or a paintjob (i expect the latter).

He says he's in better shape than last month and that the parcours really suits him.
Click to expand...

I think it suits him well too. I understand the trepidation about the longer parcours, but he’s consistently shown the ability to ride away from strong riders and seemingly gets stronger relative to his competition as the distance increases.

I think people might feel if it could be too much if he were to win tomorrow.
 
johnymax

johnymax

May 8, 2014
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Honestly I'd be quite shocked if he wins. I know he is phenomenal, but to win a WC ITT title as a 19y.o. neopro, it'd be crazy. I don't believe it, sorry.

Maybe I'm still underrating these youngsters. Even for Pogačar I didn't believe before the last week of the Vuelta that he'll end up on the podium.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
19,931
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johnymax said:
Honestly I'd be quite shocked if he wins. I know he is phenomenal, but to win a WC ITT title as a 19y.o. neopro, it'd be crazy. I don't believe it, sorry.

Maybe I'm still underrating these youngsters. Even for Pogačar I didn't believe before the last week of the Vuelta that he'll end up on the podium.
Click to expand...
If he doesn't fall into the trap of starting too fast and running out of steam... i think it's possible tbh, mainly because of the "big 3", there is none that has had a perfect preparation leading up to the WC. Roglic contested 2GT's this year and is said not to be 100%. Campenaerts didn't race for 3 months after struggling with fatigue, and Dennis is clearly mentally not in the best place and also hasn't raced for 2 months. We also will need to find out if his unbranded BMC will really be big enough of a factor to turn things around. Then there are two guys that would have been a big threat for gold that are injured (van Aert & Dumoulin).

So basically, it's a bit more nuanced than "19 year old kid to beat world's best".
 
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