Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

Probably the ride that convinces me that his absolute floor is “good enough to win a number of mid tier one week stage races”. He might be better than that. He might even be a lot better than that. But he won’t be worse than that barring injury or similar.

Previously I’d have said that his floor was “competent domestique”.

I'm quite liking his attitude in interviews. Regarding his weight, he said he knows Lefevre likes to trigger his riders with statements like that, but that he nevertheless has been paying attention to it more. However, that he has no interest to become "skin over bone" anytime soon, because he is still not fullgrown (in terms of muscle etc), and doesn't want to jeopordize his physical progression. When he is older, and really aiming for GT GC, then he can try to become as lightweight as possible, but not yet.

In the interview i posted above, he literally echoed the concerns i had made as well. That he needs to test his limits in a race like yesterday. That it's better to try and fail, than it is to play it safe and maybe get a better result now. He needs to learn, looking at the bigger picture, in order to grow stronger in the future.

He's currently about 2kg heavier than during the WC (he was 61kg then, and between 62 and 63 now). He says that he was too skinny at that time. So there is still a lot of margin there. Him hauling 3 to 4 kg less uphill, would in itself make quite a difference.

 

[JosephK]

I think Remco showed a lot of toughness today (stage 5, Tour of Turkey). Maybe he tried to attack a bit too early, considering all the unknowns, but it was a gutsy move nonetheless. Then, when he was caught and dropped, he showed a lot of tenacity limiting losses. That was a strong ride, today.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Probably the ride that convinces me that his absolute floor is “good enough to win a number of mid tier one week stage races”. He might be better than that. He might even be a lot better than that. But he won’t be worse than that barring injury or similar.

Previously I’d have said that his floor was “competent domestique”.

I really don't get such beliefs.

What can we then expect of all other riders from the year 2000? Are they so bad that not one of them will ever get a contract for a WorldTour team?

They must be when they could never follow the wheel of Remco last year - clearly they were a couple of levels below him.

Or maybe it's not because they're all bad.

Maybe the much more logical explanation is that he is an absolute freak and a talent we see once a decade, if not even more rarely.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Probably the ride that convinces me that his absolute floor is “good enough to win a number of mid tier one week stage races”. He might be better than that. He might even be a lot better than that. But he won’t be worse than that barring injury or similar.

Previously I’d have said that his floor was “competent domestique”.

I really don't get such beliefs.

What can we then expect of all other riders from the year 2000? Are they so bad that not one of them will ever get a contract for a WorldTour team?

They must be when they could never follow the wheel of Remco last year - clearly they were a couple of levels below him.

Or maybe it's not because they're all bad.

Maybe the much more logical explanation is that he is an absolute freak and a talent we see once a decade, if not even more rarely.

Different riders develop and different rates. Developing early may mean that you have a bigger potential or it may mean you reached your potential young, or it may mean some mix of the two. Saying that the worst we could expect from Evenepoel was that he would be a competent domestique did not mean that such a level was his likely outcome, just that if he barely developed further he was already close to that level. Now it’s quite clear that even if he barely develops further, he is already very near to winning this kind of race.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Probably the ride that convinces me that his absolute floor is “good enough to win a number of mid tier one week stage races”. He might be better than that. He might even be a lot better than that. But he won’t be worse than that barring injury or similar.

Previously I’d have said that his floor was “competent domestique”.

I really don't get such beliefs.

What can we then expect of all other riders from the year 2000? Are they so bad that not one of them will ever get a contract for a WorldTour team?

They must be when they could never follow the wheel of Remco last year - clearly they were a couple of levels below him.

Or maybe it's not because they're all bad.

Maybe the much more logical explanation is that he is an absolute freak and a talent we see once a decade, if not even more rarely.

Different riders develop and different rates. Developing early may mean that you have a bigger potential or it may mean you reached your potential young, or it may mean some mix of the two. Saying that the worst we could expect from Evenepoel was that he would be a competent domestique did not mean that such a level was his likely outcome, just that if he barely developed further he was already close to that level. Now it’s quite clear that even if he barely develops further, he is already very near to winning this kind of race.

Yeah, I have seen this reasoning before but have we ever seen anybody reach his ceiling as a 19 year old, and after only having ridden his bike for 18 months?

 

[Salvarani]

Lets just see what happens.

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re: Re:

Probably the ride that convinces me that his absolute floor is “good enough to win a number of mid tier one week stage races”. He might be better than that. He might even be a lot better than that. But he won’t be worse than that barring injury or similar.

Previously I’d have said that his floor was “competent domestique”.

I really don't get such beliefs.

What can we then expect of all other riders from the year 2000? Are they so bad that not one of them will ever get a contract for a WorldTour team?

They must be when they could never follow the wheel of Remco last year - clearly they were a couple of levels below him.

Or maybe it's not because they're all bad.

Maybe the much more logical explanation is that he is an absolute freak and a talent we see once a decade, if not even more rarely.

Different riders develop and different rates. Developing early may mean that you have a bigger potential or it may mean you reached your potential young, or it may mean some mix of the two. Saying that the worst we could expect from Evenepoel was that he would be a competent domestique did not mean that such a level was his likely outcome, just that if he barely developed further he was already close to that level. Now it’s quite clear that even if he barely develops further, he is already very near to winning this kind of race.

Yeah, I have seen this reasoning before but have we ever seen anybody reach his ceiling as a 19 year old, and after only having ridden his bike for 18 months?

This again.. Why does it even matter? It means absolutely nothing even if he's the best junior or all times, unless he could win GTs by now. But he still has to improve massively to do so and there is no guarantee he will do that. There are many examples in other sports and even in cycling when best young riders don't improve that much and remain mediocre. It's like saying someone beat Froome 20 years ago in a U13 race so he must win 5 tours in the future.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

This again.. Why does it even matter? It means absolutely nothing even if he's the best junior or all times, unless he could win GTs by now. But he still has to improve massively to do so and there is no guarantee he will do that. There are many examples in other sports and even in cycling when best young riders don't improve that much and remain mediocre. It's like saying someone beat Froome 20 years ago in a U13 race so he must win 5 tours in the future.

No.

 

[KZD]

I am curious to see how he will perform in the Tour de Romandie timetrials. A top10 there would be quite good.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

I think all those other mega talents in the past that didn't live up to expectations, failed on one important aspect: mentality. I refuse to believe that they all stopped improving physically at 18 or 19. I think this will be Remco's main challenge as well. But so far it's looking good and he's saying the right things.

But as far as physicallity goes, just his long solo's and ITT results as a junior (compared to top U23 ITT specialists) should have been enough to see this guy had more to it than just being a good domestique. At that point, you could have known he could at least have a De Gendt -like carreer. Especially since he has never been skinny as i stated many times in the past, you knew he didn't even have to improve all that much physically, just by losing weight he could make huge strides still. The fact that he never learned to ride conservatively, that he could improve noticably, even if he didn't grow much stronger physically. But what would be the odds that he would actually be physically fullgrown at 18/19?

Just a bit of common sense would have told you the chances that he would become more than an ordinairy domestique, but on the other hand that his results were no guarantee that he would be a future TDF winner either. He'll have to get past Bernal & Pogacar first, who currently are one or two levels better.

I am curious to see how he will perform in the Tour de Romandie timetrials. A top10 there would be quite good.

I don't think the ranking is important in this field. Rather the timedifference with the other GC riders. It's a pretty stacked field with some heavy ITT hitters. Campenaerts, Van Emden, Castroviejo, Martin, Roglic...

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I think all those other mega talents in the past that didn't live up to expectations, failed on one important aspect: mentality. I refuse to believe that they all stopped improving physically at 18 or 19. I think this will be Remco's main challenge as well. But so far it's looking good and he's saying the right things.

But as far as physicallity goes, just his long solo's and ITT results as a junior (compared to top U23 ITT specialists) should have been enough to see this guy had more to it than just being a good domestique. At that point, you could have known he could at least have a De Gendt -like carreer. Especially since he has never been skinny as i stated many times in the past, you knew he didn't even have to improve all that much physically, just by losing weight he could make huge strides still. The fact that he never learned to ride conservatively, that he could improve noticably, even if he didn't grow much stronger physically. But what would be the odds that he would actually be physically fullgrown at 18/19?

Just a bit of common sense would have told you the chances that he would become more than an ordinairy domestique, but on the other hand that his results were no guarantee that he would be a future TDF winner either. He'll have to get past Bernal & Pogacar first, who currently are one or two levels better.

I am curious to see how he will perform in the Tour de Romandie timetrials. A top10 there would be quite good.

I don't think the ranking is important in this field. Rather the timedifference with the other GC riders. It's a pretty stacked field with some heavy ITT hitters. Campenaerts, Van Emden, Castroviejo, Martin, Roglic...

I agree, the ITT is more relevant to other GC riders and not to the ITT specialists.

 

[Bolder]

It would be almost criminal to ask him to do more this season. This is the plan...he's riding the plan. I see zero upside to him doing anything else this season. If, as he says, he's still developing physically, pushing him too hard could have long term consequences.

It would be worrisome, say, if he was pack fodder in these B-level weeklong races, but he hasn't been. He's been almost as good as anyone, and you could probably put down a lot of the difference to experience/pack skills.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Apparently, his 4th spot in Turkey, has earned him the record of being the youngest rider ever to finish in a top 5 of a WT stage race. I read it on a Belgian sports website, haven't verified it (and frankly i'm too lazy to do so).

He's realistic about his chances in Romandie: won't feel the urge to attack, will stick to following instead, since there are top contenders present.

-----------------------------

Just came across this video: https://video.eurosport.de/radsport/supertalent-remco-evenepoel-so-tickt-der-uberflieger_vid1166333/video.shtml

It's by Eurosport, but they have region/geolocked it. You can view it with a free VPN if you set the country to German. If you can't view it, i can send you a link directly to the videofile if you PM me.

Apparently, he had a bad day last year during the EC ITT, he only won by less than half a minute.

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Another report/interview: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x76k73t

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He'll ride the Baloise Belgium Tour (12th of June). There will be an ITT in Grimbergen, close to his home.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel tells Belgian newspaper HLN that he already sees he's grown stronger, just by looking at the power output values. He has learned a lot in every race he has entered with DQS and especially in positioning.

Romandie should suit him better than UAE, San Juan or Turkey, because the stages are harder. It's not just a flat race with a mountain at the end. Legs are constantly under pressure.

He hopes he can get a nice result.

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NOTICE: GOOGLE TRANSLATE AT WORK (Sporza article)

Jurgen Van den Broeck: "Evenepoel will certainly show himself in the Tour of Romandie"

Tour of Romandia. From the Belgian side it is looking forward to Thomas De Gendt, Victor Campenaerts and Remco Evenepoel. "I expect Evenepoel to be able to go on mountain rides for a long time," says Jurgen Van den Broeck, the last Belgian to finish in the top 10 in Romandia.

"Deceuninck-Quick Step supports Evenepoel in what it does"

9th in the Tour of San Juan and 4th in the Tour of Turkey. Remco Evenepoel has already shown some flashes of his talent with the pros at the age of 19. "Evenepoel dares to head and run into a wall," says Jurgen Van den Broeck.

"Within Deceuninck-Quick Step, they don't tell Evenepoel that he should immediately get results together, they let him drive around freely. That's a good thing."

"If Evenepoel says he wants to compete with the best and want to go with them for as long as possible, then the team will support him in that. And if Evenepoel says he wants to go fullgas without thinking, the team will also support him, I think. "

"I am sure Evenepoel will show himself at the Tour de Romandie this week. I expect that he will be able to go on mountain trips for a long time."

"Today the weather can be nice, tomorrow it can snow"

Jurgen Van den Broeck was the last Belgian to finish in the top 10 of the Tour de Romandie: 7th in 2013. "If we say Evenepoel can finish in the top 10, we put unnecessary pressure on him. That's not good", says Van den Broeck.

"Let Evenepoel do his thing and we will see where he will end up. And if he is good and can keep up with the best for a long time, why should the top 10 not be possible?"

"Because many riders take a rest period or think too much about the Giro, the Tour of Romandie does not have the strongest field of participants. That is an additional reason for Deceuninck-Quick Step to give Evenepoel the chance to do its thing."

"I have always loved to ride the Tour de Romandie, it is a very nice race. Today it can be nice weather, tomorrow it can snow. The course is also beautifully constructed with an uphill finish and a tough final time trial. see how much powder is left in your legs. "

 

[masking_agent]

he's a phenomenon yes, but the sport has changed so much that no one can really follow in the wins of Eddy Merckx. Different time, different sport.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

he's a phenomenon yes, but the sport has changed so much that no one can really follow in the wins of Eddy Merckx. Different time, different sport.

The "phenomenon" got 57th today ...

But I'm sure if he really "wanted", he could win this prolog, but he is just too young and just learning so he probably didn't want to.

Maybe there was something wrong with his bike, maybe he is ill/tired, or perhaps some other understandable excuse.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Remco is a diesel with a great engine, you shouldn't expect him to be near the top in a technical prologue with short, explosive climbs.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

Remco is a diesel with a great engine, you shouldn't expect him to be near the top in a technical prologue with short, explosive climbs.

You are correct. That is excacly what I meant!

This course did not suit him at all. The wind was blowing in the wrong direction too! I'm sure he will show us his Merckx's level "diesel engine" once the conditions are ideal.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I wondered if you had been kicked off the forum, since we didn't hear you after his 4th place in Turkey.

 

[tobydawq]

Amended.

Why do you need to point fingers of Remco all the time? Just to be provocative? Or to seem stupid when he begins winning big races in a couple of years and you judged him because he didn't do that at the age of nineteen.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

Remco is a diesel with a great engine, you shouldn't expect him to be near the top in a technical prologue with short, explosive climbs.

I kind of expected him to lose about 10 seconds. So he did lose a bit more than i anticipated. But the kid has been riding a bike for exactly 24 months now. On technical courses, he will always lose time. He will improve, but he will never have the same control over his bike as someone who's been riding a bike since he was 10. That ship has sailed.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

I wondered if you had been kicked off the forum, since we didn't hear you after his 4th place in Turkey.

Believe it or not, there are other platforms where you can freely voice your opinion and you don't get banned for having a negative opinion on certain rider or a race.

BTW there is nothing exceptional about 4th place in Turkey as there was no real competition.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

My god you're insufferable sometimes.

It mainly shows how clueless this guy is. I mean, completely no idea of what he's talking about, and you'd have to wonder why he even is on a cycling forum. Completely baseless bashing of a 19 year old. Best youth (vs a top talent of 3 years older) in San Juan. Podium of the ITT in San Juan. First MTF in UAE, ahead of Sivakov, Lambrecht, Nibali, Meintjes, Porte... Only 12s behind Dumoulin and within a minute of Roglic, Valverde... 4th on the queen stage in Turkey and the GC. But hey, he didn't do great on a short technical course, so let's mock him!

This dude has ZERO credibility. Putting him on ignore.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

He's working hard to get ready for Romandie, his first real test.

So, the starting list of Romandie is slowly growing. Roglic, Kruijswijk, Pogacar, Latour, Lopez, Gaudu, Thomas, Zakarin, Costa, Mäder, Amador...

He's supposed to show Lefevre what he's made of in this race (his first real exam). Two ITT (one being a prologue i assume) and two MTF.

You don't see any skills that would turn him into a GT contender? Killer timetrialist. Lightweight. Tempoclimber. Huge engine. Levelheaded. Again you show how little you know of him. He isn't a jack of all trades at all. He lacks punch, he can't sprint. He will not win many stages or one day races just for that reason. He will win quite a few ITT's and he has an insane potential as a GC rider, because he will take minutes on other contenders in the ITT, and he will choke them uphill.

The issue with your logic is that first, you over-hype the kid, then you are talking about how he is targeting this race, how great TT he is, and then when he does not deliver, you simply play the age card and downplay his performance blaming the TT course.

That is what is annoying about this thread. The neverending overhyping ...

 

[Red Rick]

Sometimes I do wonder how this thread is so big already.

Then I see this and I stop wondering.