Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[houtdffan]

hmmm.

are u sure about that?

I think lemond was taller...

and i really question whether he was a better TTer. (and I am a huuuuuge lemond fan).

Hinault beat him in every TT at the 1986 TDF when Lemond was at the end of his career.

and please check out the kind of time differences hinault would put into people in 78 and 79.

the tough thing about lemond is that he was no doubt one of the greatest and most talented riders ever. however, his career and chances to show that talent were so limited by first riding as a teammate of both hinault and fignon, then the hunting accident, and then his own illness and the peloton succumbing to EPO...

for instance, in modern times, no one has won a world championship alone by as much as Lemond did in 1983 (even Merckx or Hinault). and merckx commented at the time that it was an extraordinary feat.

Wasn't Lemond leading the TT in 1986 before he crashed though? Still only lost it by 25 seconds. That year, those two were so far and away the best TTers AND climbers that there was no competition aside from their own

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He'll leave for Spain, somewhere near Calpe at the Costa Blanca, this Sunday, for at least a 2 week (individual) training camp, since his recovery/rehabilitation has evolved favorably. He won't be staying at the usual hotel because it's closed (covid), they're still looking for an alternative.

It was still unclear whether Vuelta a San Juan would take place or not, and if it could be his first race of 2021, much like in 2020 and 2019. In Argentina, they still hope to be able to go through with the race. Otherwise, with Tour Down Under also cancelled, the team is likely to kick 2021 off in Europe.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He'll leave for Spain, somewhere near Calpe at the Costa Blanca, this Sunday, for at least a 2 week (individual) training camp, since his recovery/rehabilitation has evolved favorably. He won't be staying at the usual hotel because it's closed (covid), they're still looking for an alternative.

There's no better place to train in continental Europe at this time of the year. Southern and eastern Spain offer warm and mostly dry weather plus it doesn't lack climbs.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Part of me hopes he isn't a dominant climber (like Bernal or Pogacar), but needs to go in the attack in mid-mountains, where he's shown some very exciting things already in the past (think of Adriatica Ionica, San Sebastian, Tour de Pologne etc), with long-ish range attacks to take back 1 to 2 minutes. Last thing i hope is for him to become an obnoxiously boring rider like Roglic. Sitting in the wheels of his doms, until 400 meters of the finish, rack up the boniseconds and wait for the ITT. Three years ago i thought Roglic was one of the most exciting riders to look out for in the future. Now i hope he loses every race he enters.

In reality, i think Remco will turn out the be an improved version in almost every way except uphill sprints, of Roglic. Stronger mentally, better ITT'er, better tempo-climber. I have difficulty seeing him fail due to 3 weeks racing, haven't seen any signs of inconsistency either. As long as he stays on his bike.

Evenepoel won't be a dominant climber, compared to Pogacar, Bernal and in one or two years also Carapaz. But this will be an added value for cycling. He"ll be forced to attack in the middle mountains, or in the second last climb. I'm convinced dat he sometimes will blow up, and lose a grand tour. Sometimes, in a good shape, he"ll destroy the whole field. In a grand tour with two timetrials (one long distance). Roglic isn't a real climber too. He only can win a stage (and take a few seconds + bonification) making profit of his tempoclimbing-timetrial-capacities and after sitting in the climbs in the wheels of his terrible J-V-train. And sprinting uphill the last few hunderd of meters. Evenepoel has the same capacities (tempo and time-trial), but is far less explosive. But he has the guts and the endurance to attack long before the last few meters. Conclusion. I think Evenepoel will win less grand tours than Roglic or Bernal. But if he wins one or two, it will be with "panache". That's also the reason I was pleased to see Roglic losing the Tour this year, regarding his extreme defensive style.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Evenepoel won't be a dominant climber, compared to Pogacar, Bernal and in one or two years also Carapaz. But this will be an added value for cycling. He"ll be forced to attack in the middle mountains, or in the second last climb. I'm convinced dat he sometimes will blow up, and lose a grand tour. Sometimes, in a good shape, he"ll destroy the whole field. In a grand tour with two timetrials (one long distance). Roglic isn't a real climber too. He only can win a stage (and take a few seconds + bonification) making profit of his tempoclimbing-timetrial-capacities and after sitting in the climbs in the wheels of his terrible J-V-train. And sprinting uphill the last few hunderd of meters. Evenepoel has the same capacities (tempo and time-trial), but is far less explosive. But he has the guts and the endurance to attack long before the last few meters. Conclusion. I think Evenepoel will win less grand tours than Roglic or Bernal. But if he wins one or two, it will be with "panache". That's also the reason I was pleased to see Roglic losing the Tour this year, regarding his extreme defensive style.

You are underestimating him. We are talking about a 61-kg guy, who can generate insane wattage. He won't be forced to attack in middle mountains cause he will excel in both TT and high mountains. He looks like a GT dominator type of a rider (from the rest only Pogacar looks this way). Evenepoel's long-range attacks (a la Froome at Finestre) would be epic but under normal circumstances he won't need them at GTs (though hopefully he'll perform them sometimes like at last TdP).

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Evenepoel won't be a dominant climber, compared to Pogacar, Bernal and in one or two years also Carapaz. But this will be an added value for cycling. He"ll be forced to attack in the middle mountains, or in the second last climb. I'm convinced dat he sometimes will blow up, and lose a grand tour. Sometimes, in a good shape, he"ll destroy the whole field. In a grand tour with two timetrials (one long distance). Roglic isn't a real climber too. He only can win a stage (and take a few seconds + bonification) making profit of his tempoclimbing-timetrial-capacities and after sitting in the climbs in the wheels of his terrible J-V-train. And sprinting uphill the last few hunderd of meters. Evenepoel has the same capacities (tempo and time-trial), but is far less explosive. But he has the guts and the endurance to attack long before the last few meters. Conclusion. I think Evenepoel will win less grand tours than Roglic or Bernal. But if he wins one or two, it will be with "panache". That's also the reason I was pleased to see Roglic losing the Tour this year, regarding his extreme defensive style.

This is a strange take. Evenepoel won’t win sprints or beat someone like Alaphilippe up a steep hill, but where he’s strongest is his ability to grind his opponents down by constantly increasing the tempo until no one else can follow.

This is how he’ll hurt other riders by forcing an unbearable tempo.

Sure he’ll lose some mountain stages because he has a poor kick, he’ll almost always be in the first group, because they won’t be able to drop him.

 

[Big Doopie]

This is a strange take. Evenepoel won’t win sprints or beat someone like Alaphilippe up a steep hill, but where he’s strongest is his ability to grind his opponents down by constantly increasing the tempo until no one else can follow.

This is how he’ll hurt other riders by forcing an unbearable tempo.

Sure he’ll lose some mountain stages because he has a poor kick, he’ll almost always be in the first group, because they won’t be able to drop him.

agreed. seems more like wishful thinking from the poster.

as i have been saying for a while now, remco is similar to hinault at his best in the mountains. he will simply ride people off his wheel and then time trial his way to the finish.

no, he will not be the best pure climber, but with a balanced route he should dominate.

the comparison with rog is a little silly (saying that remco will win fewer GTs...). rog is a very strong rider, but not dominant -- unable to make any large differences anywhere. while not impossible, i wouldn't be shocked if rog wins only 0-1 more GTs -- it will depend on the competition.

 

[Andre]

Remco was given 20th place in rider rankings...I think that is way lower than he deserved.

 

[houtdffan]

Evenepoel won't be a dominant climber, compared to Pogacar, Bernal and in one or two years also Carapaz. But this will be an added value for cycling. He"ll be forced to attack in the middle mountains, or in the second last climb. I'm convinced dat he sometimes will blow up, and lose a grand tour. Sometimes, in a good shape, he"ll destroy the whole field. In a grand tour with two timetrials (one long distance). Roglic isn't a real climber too. He only can win a stage (and take a few seconds + bonification) making profit of his tempoclimbing-timetrial-capacities and after sitting in the climbs in the wheels of his terrible J-V-train. And sprinting uphill the last few hunderd of meters. Evenepoel has the same capacities (tempo and time-trial), but is far less explosive. But he has the guts and the endurance to attack long before the last few meters. Conclusion. I think Evenepoel will win less grand tours than Roglic or Bernal. But if he wins one or two, it will be with "panache". That's also the reason I was pleased to see Roglic losing the Tour this year, regarding his extreme defensive style.

Given Evenepoel's power and weight, he may very well be able to make attacks as far out as Armstrong did in the mountains. While Armstrong seldom attacked before the final climb, he often attacked about 10-12km from the finish on the final climb. Was able to sustain his attacks for longer, which gave him the advantage. Evenepoel may very well be able to do the same. If the others want to wait behind their trains until 2km to go, they may end up finishing 2-3 minutes back like Ullrich often did

 

[red_flanders]

Evenepoel won't be a dominant climber, compared to Pogacar, Bernal and in one or two years also Carapaz. But this will be an added value for cycling. He"ll be forced to attack in the middle mountains, or in the second last climb. I'm convinced dat he sometimes will blow up, and lose a grand tour. Sometimes, in a good shape, he"ll destroy the whole field. In a grand tour with two timetrials (one long distance). Roglic isn't a real climber too. He only can win a stage (and take a few seconds + bonification) making profit of his tempoclimbing-timetrial-capacities and after sitting in the climbs in the wheels of his terrible J-V-train. And sprinting uphill the last few hunderd of meters. Evenepoel has the same capacities (tempo and time-trial), but is far less explosive. But he has the guts and the endurance to attack long before the last few meters. Conclusion. I think Evenepoel will win less grand tours than Roglic or Bernal. But if he wins one or two, it will be with "panache". That's also the reason I was pleased to see Roglic losing the Tour this year, regarding his extreme defensive style.

I'm curious about the bolded above, why are you convinced he'll blow up? He seems to me to have exceptional endurance and probably recovery. I don't rule it out, but it's interesting that you are "convinced" this will be the case. Wondering why? Thanks.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

You have to read what I have written. Evenepoel is a tempoclimber en has the endurance to attack long before the last climb. But regarding the fact he isn't a real climber, there is a chance he'll exploded when he has a bad day. As I wrote, a rider as Evenepoel will be a plus for cycling, more than the pure climbers. But no, he won't dominate all the grand tours as Hinault, Indurain, Froome. But I hope he'll win one or two Tour de France and a few more Giro and Vuelta.

 

[hayneplane]

Remco was given 20th place in rider rankings...I think that is way lower than he deserved.

where are these rider rankings?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

where are these rider rankings?

He finsihed 20th in the UCI World Ranking, but that was what he deserved.
But he would obviously had finished higher, if he had had the opportunity to gain more points.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You have to read what I have written. Evenepoel is a tempoclimber en has the endurance to attack long before the last climb. But regarding the fact he isn't a real climber, there is a chance he'll exploded when he has a bad day. As I wrote, a rider as Evenepoel will be a plus for cycling, more than the pure climbers. But no, he won't dominate all the grand tours as Hinault, Indurain, Froome. But I hope he'll win one or two Tour de France and a few more Giro and Vuelta.

Strange conclusion. Well, the future will tell, either you'll end up being right, or being wrong. But i see no evidence at the moment for either outcome.
He's no "pure" climber, what is that exactly, a "pure" climber? A rider that goes fast uphill but can't TT? He's lightweight, pushes big watts and pushes them for a long time. So he's not a climber, just a guy that climbs fast. Ok.

As for your comparison, it's absolutely possible he doesn't dominate. There are multiple scenarios for that, one being that he has to face fiercer rivals than Froome or Indurain had. But i do find it strange that, of all people, you name Indurain, a guy with very much the same base qualities. Indurain also wasn't a "pure" climber. Just a guy that rode uphill fast and killed everyone in ITT's. Ignoring clinic issues of a 80+kg guy dropping light guys of course, where Evenepoel only weighs 60kg.

He finsihed 20th in the UCI World Ranking, but that was what he deserved.
But he would obviously had finished higher, if he had had the opportunity to gain more points.

Oh, so it's just the accumulated points for races he rode. Then that makes sense. It's a pitty that UCI didn't value Burgos and Poland (and other post corona break races) more per exception this year, due to many races being cancelled, and these races (among others) featuring a much wider quality field/line-up. Burgos this year gives the winner as many points as it did in past years, while this year there were a record number of WT teams at the start, and many more top tier climbers/GC riders. Same with Poland. So i do agree with Andre that from that angle, he should be higher on the list, he certainly gave the impression of being one of the 10 best riders of the year, but if the list is just based on results, then it is what it is.

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah if anything the fact that he is more of a TT'er than a climber indicates that if he ever wins gt's he'll do it the Indurain/Armstrong/Froome way

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yeah if anything the fact that he is more of a TT'er than a climber indicates that if he ever wins gt's he'll do it the Indurain/Armstrong/Froome way

Armstrong dominated in both TTs and the mountains. He was one of the best climbers in history (even though many would say he wasn't even a climber). Thus term "pure climber" doesn't mean much - it's all about how fast one can go uphill and Evenepoel will likely be bloody fast in this department (regardless if they call him a rouleur, tempo climber etc)

 

[Big Doopie]

...frankly, i am actually stunned that armstrong and indurain are even brought up in this discussion.

 

[red_flanders]

You have to read what I have written. Evenepoel is a tempoclimber en has the endurance to attack long before the last climb. But regarding the fact he isn't a real climber, there is a chance he'll exploded when he has a bad day. As I wrote, a rider as Evenepoel will be a plus for cycling, more than the pure climbers. But no, he won't dominate all the grand tours as Hinault, Indurain, Froome. But I hope he'll win one or two Tour de France and a few more Giro and Vuelta.

I read it, that's why I asked. I still don't get the "...he isn't a real climber, there is a chance he'll be exploded when he has a bad day..." part . Anyone has a chance to blow up on a bad day, no? Why would a "tempo climber" blow up worse than a "real climber"? Seems to me folks riding tempo would be less likely to blow up than someone using explosive efforts to distance folks. A tempo climber will tend to stay more within themselves. I also see him as someone who will have the opportunity to defend in the mountains rather than needing to attack to gain time, which will mean less chance of blowing up. If you're a "real climber" you're gonna have to drop him in the mountains, and I don't see that being easy to do. I predict a lot of failed attempts at dropping him.

I agree his nature seems to be to attack even when he doesn't really need to, he's aggressive and supremely confident. But if he does so and blows up, I don't really see him being dumb and not learning to measure his efforts more as he matures. He's well coached, and has incredible talent to lean on. Anyway, that's my view. I think he's going to be a tremendous GT racer. Time will tell if he's at the Hinault or Indurain level. I see him as a rider much in the mold of Hinault, with the size, the TT power, the climbing ability, and the champion's mentality. He doesn't have the sprint Hinault had so I don't see him as much of a winner ultimately in terms of classics and stages, but he'll get some (and already has).

I just don't see the GT weakness, myself. We'll see.

 

[Gigs_98]

Armstrong dominated in both TTs and the mountains. He was one of the best climbers in history (even though many would say he wasn't even a climber). Thus term "pure climber" doesn't mean much - it's all about how fast one can go uphill and Evenepoel will likely be bloody fast in this department (regardless if they call him a rouleur, tempo climber etc)

True, but I mean, wasn't Indurain also one of the best climbers of his generation, maybe in history, if you just look at how fast he could ride up mountains? People like to complain about Sky carrying guys like Thomas or Wiggins to Tour wins but arguably they were the best or the 2nd best climbers in the Tours they won.

What I meant with what I wrote is that like Armstrong and Indurain Remco comes from more of a TT than a climbing background. If I had to bet I'd say he is likely to become one of the world's best climbers as well.

Anyway, what I was originally trying to say was that I disagree with the point that a rider with Remco's characteristics is unlikely to ever dominate the Tour de France. If anything they strongly suggest he will. What I disagree with even more is that he could win gt's without being a great climber just by being very aggressive. In todays cycling world the only way to gain big amounts of time by being aggressive is by being a great climber. There won't ever be enough hilly stages for a guy who isn't a great climber to make enough time and even if there were many such stages even Remco's powers will be limited on a few hills against a proper TdF peloton. And if I'm wrong about that last point he would have to be so good that he would be unbeatable in the mountains as well anyway.

 

[Red Rick]

True, but I mean, wasn't Indurain also one of the best climbers of his generation, maybe in history, if you just look at how fast he could ride up mountains? People like to complain about Sky carrying guys like Thomas or Wiggins to Tour wins but arguably they were the best or the 2nd best climbers in the Tours they won.

What I meant with what I wrote is that like Armstrong and Indurain Remco comes from more of a TT than a climbing background. If I had to bet I'd say he is likely to become one of the world's best climbers as well.

Anyway, what I was originally trying to say was that I disagree with the point that a rider with Remco's characteristics is unlikely to ever dominate the Tour de France. If anything they strongly suggest he will. What I disagree with even more is that he could win gt's without being a great climber just by being very aggressive. In todays cycling world the only way to gain big amounts of time by being aggressive is by being a great climber. There won't ever be enough hilly stages for a guy who isn't a great climber to make enough time and even if there were many such stages even Remco's powers will be limited on a few hills against a proper TdF peloton. And if I'm wrong about that last point he would have to be so good that he would be unbeatable in the mountains as well anyway.

To me, Evenepoel still remains impossible to rate in terms of where his form curve was in relation to the other guys in the races he did this year, and how it relates to the massive increase in level we saw later in the year.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

I read it, that's why I asked. I still don't get the "...he isn't a real climber, there is a chance he'll be exploded when he has a bad day..." part . Anyone has a chance to blow up on a bad day, no? Why would a "tempo climber" blow up worse than a "real climber"? Seems to me folks riding tempo would be less likely to blow up than someone using explosive efforts to distance folks. A tempo climber will tend to stay more within themselves. I also see him as someone who will have the opportunity to defend in the mountains rather than needing to attack to gain time, which will mean less chance of blowing up. If you're a "real climber" you're gonna have to drop him in the mountains, and I don't see that being easy to do. I predict a lot of failed attempts at dropping him.

I agree his nature seems to be to attack even when he doesn't really need to, he's aggressive and supremely confident. But if he does so and blows up, I don't really see him being dumb and not learning to measure his efforts more as he matures. He's well coached, and has incredible talent to lean on. Anyway, that's my view. I think he's going to be a tremendous GT racer. Time will tell if he's at the Hinault or Indurain level. I see him as a rider much in the mold of Hinault, with the size, the TT power, the climbing ability, and the champion's mentality. He doesn't have the sprint Hinault had so I don't see him as much of a winner ultimately in terms of classics and stages, but he'll get some (and already has).

I just don't see the GT weakness, myself. We'll see.

A tempo climber has to put more energy in his effort than a pure climber. I think he's to young at the moment to destroy the opponents when attacking in the second last climb. Even if he's more the type Hinault, Indurain....., he hasn't the same qualities.... yet. And not the explosivity of (EPO)Armstrong and Froome. Armstrong and Froome mostly didn't attack before the last climb or finishclimb, but didn't wait till the last 2 km or less, what most of the current "modern" general contendors did or do (Roglic, Thomas...).
My conclusion is that he hasn't the climbing abilities of a pure climber (60 kg is still to much comparing to his lengt) and hasn't the qualities of Indurain, Hinault, Froom...... so far. I think he wil bring an extra in grand tours, attacking on places others don't expect a general contendor to attack. Fine for the spectacle. But I don't think this will allow him to win a grand tour the next two or three years (except a Giro poor in topriders, as we've seen in oktober). But, if progressing the next years (and for me that's the real question), he could reach a level that will allow him to win a grand tour (also regarding his time-trial abilities)

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

A tempo climber has to put more energy in his effort than a pure climber. I think he's to young at the moment to destroy the opponents when attacking in the second last climb. Even if he's more the type Hinault, Indurain....., he hasn't the same qualities.... yet. And not the explosivity of (EPO)Armstrong and Froome. Armstrong and Froome mostly didn't attack before the last climb or finishclimb, but didn't wait till the last 2 km or less, what most of the current "modern" general contendors did or do (Roglic, Thomas...).
My conclusion is that he hasn't the climbing abilities of a pure climber (60 kg is still to much comparing to his lengt) and hasn't the qualities of Indurain, Hinault, Froom...... so far. I think he wil bring an extra in grand tours, attacking on places others don't expect a general contendor to attack. Fine for the spectacle. But I don't think this will allow him to win a grand tour the next two or three years (except a Giro poor in topriders, as we've seen in oktober). But, if progressing the next years (and for me that's the real question), he could reach a level that will allow him to win a grand tour (also regarding his time-trial abilities)

Feels like you're making stuff up as you go. A tempoclimber puts more enery in his effort? Based on what? If anything, a tempoclimber is more efficient since he rides a steady pace. Sixty kg is too much compared to his length? Luckily length for a climber is completely irrelevant, it's about weight + watts and he pushes more W/kg than "pure climbers". He also said the goal weight for when he would ride a GT would be 59kg. That would be around or below Bernal's weight.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Feels like you're making stuff up as you go. A tempoclimber puts more enery in his effort? Based on what? If anything, a tempoclimber is more efficient since he rides a steady pace. Sixty kg is too much compared to his length? Luckily length for a climber is completely irrelevant, it's about weight + watts and he pushes more W/kg than "pure climbers". He also said the goal weight for when he would ride a GT would be 59kg. That would be around or below Bernal's weight.

What a pity you react in that negative way. I have been following cycling for more than 60 years. Believe me, I am rarely mistaken. Anyway, Evenepoel is not a skinny climber. And I don't have seen him ride in a climbers style, last year and this year. I hope the best for him. I'm convinced he"ll bring a lot in future cycling. But not in the way you think he"ll do. And yes, as I pointed before, Evenepoel will win a few (grand) tours. But not absolutely dominant and not as many times you think.

 

[Big Doopie]

What a pity you react in that negative way. I have been following cycling for more than 60 years. Believe me, I am rarely mistaken. Anyway, Evenepoel is not a skinny climber. And I don't have seen him ride in a climbers style, last year and this year. I hope the best for him. I'm convinced he"ll bring a lot in future cycling. But not in the way you think he"ll do. And yes, as I pointed before, Evenepoel will win a few (grand) tours. But not absolutely dominant and not as many times you think.

wasn't negative at all.

it is actually quite correct that riding at a steady tempo is more efficient and that you are less likely to blow up.

the fact that you are stating the opposite contradicts your declaration that you are (in your words): "rarely mistaken".

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What a pity you react in that negative way. I have been following cycling for more than 60 years. Believe me, I am rarely mistaken. Anyway, Evenepoel is not a skinny climber. And I don't have seen him ride in a climbers style, last year and this year. I hope the best for him. I'm convinced he"ll bring a lot in future cycling. But not in the way you think he"ll do. And yes, as I pointed before, Evenepoel will win a few (grand) tours. But not absolutely dominant and not as many times you think.

Don't fall for Evenepoel's chubby face - it's baby fat as he's so young. There's no way around physics: watts per kilogram is proportional to climbing speed cause velocity is the quotient of power and force and on steep climbs the major force riders have to overcome is weight. If Remco can push big watts out of his 60 kg body he will be very fast uphill. As for tempo climbers vs pure climbers: tempo climbing is always the best when you ride on your own (near the treshold) while intervals/accelerations are good way to drop and cook your rivals (if an attacker is better at handling above the treshold efforts). If Evenepoel is "only" a tempo climber (and can't respond to accelerations) but can sustain let's say 6.7 w/kg he will limit his losses to minimum by riding strong tempo after initial surge of his potential rival. More likely though (if his team is strong enough) he will kill most (or all) of his rivals with unbearable tempo making any attack impossible.