Where he can beat Pogacar - He can put time into him potentially on flattish ITTs especially courses that reward strong aerodynamics and also TTTs where Quick Step have always been seriously strong if they come back into vogue in GTs.I don’t think many people think he’s going to beat Pogačar. Where is the weakness? Even if he and Pog are equal in strength, the sprint would decide things. Hard to see where he’ll be strong enough to beat an in form Pog. I think he will win some GTs, course and field depending.
Agree this year will tell much, and agree he’s got a chance to do quite well in the Ardennes, but again the sprint is too much a limiter against the top guys to be talking triple crown, IMO.
He might also put time in on long raids in hilly undulating days where he could majorly weaken and stress Team UAE albeit Pogi has shown he is more than handy in this aspect himself as well if he takes off the leash and chooses to respond personally.
All that taken into account he will still need to find a lot more than has been able to be shown so far to be able to win with both in great form as Red Flanders rightly points out bonus seconds could be a big factor giving Pogacar maybe another 30+ seconds in the bag.