I actually believe he has bigger chances of winning LBL than Giro, both being very possible, but I wouldn't go as far as to call them likely (that does not mean that they are not likely, if you can compute that). I believe a top form Roglič is harder competition than likely declining form Pogačar.
People like to forget Primož did not race a GT with proper preparation since forever. And that also very much applies to the last years vuelta.
But with the bigger historic perspective seemingly always present in the Remco talks, I wondered, would anything change in how he's viewed if he actually loses both races? It will certainly continue to confirm his development into historic greatness if he wins them both, but what about the other way around? Will it also possibly influence his plans for the future? I'd imagine, if he'd win the giro, he would be likely to go for the tour in 2024, but if he loses the giro, he'd maybe want to have another go? What about his Flanders (and other sprint classics focus) plan?