Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This seems optimistic for a 25k TT.

Evenepoel and Pogacar have faced in a TT 5 times prior. On average Evenepoel takes 2.26s per km on Pogacar.
However, 4 out of those 5 TT's were championship TT's, and the only TT they faced each other in a GC was an opening TT in Tirreno. So all TT's were raced "fresh".
That said, the first TT both should be "relatively" fresh as well, and Evenepoel looks bullish on the flats so far.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

if he doesn't get too fat in the meantime

His one true rival.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Evenepoel and Pogacar have faced in a TT 5 times prior. On average Evenepoel takes 2.26s per km on Pogacar.
However, 4 out of those 5 TT's were championship TT's, and the only TT they faced each other in a GC was an opening TT in Tirreno. So all TT's were raced "fresh".
That said, the first TT both should be "relatively" fresh as well, and Evenepoel looks bullish on the flats so far.

Pogacar's TTs in GTs has been superior to his TTs in other races though. He won a TT in the Tour with 50+ kph average, also did well in the Giro. He's in great form. I think Evenepoel will win by max 1 s/km.

 

[Extinction]

I accept that he might be a TdF contender, obviously having WON a GT he's a GT contender. LOTS of big HC climbs left. Love where he is right now. Looks like 3rd strongest climber in the race. The questions are around repeats in the high mountains. Some answered, some remain.

Enjoying seeing him compete at this juncture. Better than I expected, about where I hoped.

The problem for him is Pogacar and Vingegaard. He came into cycling at this moment, when there are two better. The only way things turn around at the Tour for him is if they decline sooner than later. Although if Pog keeps this up for another 10 years, I'll be off to the Carribean.

 

[red_flanders]

Evenepoel and Pogacar have faced in a TT 5 times prior. On average Evenepoel takes 2.26s per km on Pogacar.
However, 4 out of those 5 TT's were championship TT's, and the only TT they faced each other in a GC was an opening TT in Tirreno. So all TT's were raced "fresh".
That said, the first TT both should be "relatively" fresh as well, and Evenepoel looks bullish on the flats so far.

Indeed, my comments are about what I expect to happen in this race.

Agree he looks really strong. But I don't anticipate seeing those kind of gaps to Roglič and Vingegaard, and I think it's up in the air if he beats Pogi. I tend to think he will, but I think it's gonna be very close, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Pogi beats him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Pogacar's TTs in GTs has been superior to his TTs in other races though. He won a TT in the Tour with 50+ kph average, also did well in the Giro. He's in great form. I think Evenepoel will win by max 1 s/km.

That's why i specifically mentioned all those TT's were raced fresh. It's something to consider.

 

[scribers]

His one true rival.

Mine too

 

[Extinction]

Evenepoel and Pogacar have faced in a TT 5 times prior. On average Evenepoel takes 2.26s per km on Pogacar.
However, 4 out of those 5 TT's were championship TT's, and the only TT they faced each other in a GC was an opening TT in Tirreno. So all TT's were raced "fresh".
That said, the first TT both should be "relatively" fresh as well, and Evenepoel looks bullish on the flats so far.

I don't think Pog will be at such a disadvantage, given his Giro TTs against Ganna. In fact, if Remco takes significant time I'd be suprised or if Pog wins I wouldn't be.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't think Pog will be at such a disadvantage, given his Giro TTs against Ganna. In fact, if Remco takes significant time I'd be suprised or if Pog wins I wouldn't be.

I would honestly be surprised if Pog wins it, unless Evenepoel has a mishap. Specifically since he seems dominant on flat sections today and the day before yesterday, even with his current weight. I would be more surprised by Pog winning, than Evenepoel pulling a rabbit out of his hat like the first Giro TT last year.

 

[Extinction]

I would honestly be surprised if Pog wins it, unless Evenepoel has a mishap. Specifically since he seems dominant on flat sections today and the day before yesterday, even with his current weight. I would be more surprised by Pog winning, than Evenepoel pulling a rabbit out of his hat like the first Giro TT last year.

Well, Pog is at the best level he has ever been, so it's a different scenario. I think Evenepoel normally goes faster, but this is not normal.

 

[Billy The Kid]

Good Tour by Remco so far. He was third strongest on Galibier, was slower on the steeper half of the descent but did well later. As things stand now he's a strong podium candidate. Obviously his situation following the first TT will be even better.

He is looking better and better day by day. Closing in to be 100% in 2 and 3 week!I’m expecting him to ride a superb TT on Friday in this form!Unfortunatelly its only 25,3k long. My guess will be that he puts around 1 second pr km to the second best that probably will be Pogacar!Pog only lost 29 seconds on the flat TT in the Giro(31k) over Ganna!What do you guys think of the time differences between the top GC guys?

 

[velaso montador]

Brilliant ride from Remco love to see it! The second strongest today (all be it a mountain that suits his characteristic? arrest me if im wrong)

But love to see it hopefully it continues and he just gets better then it can get really interesting suspect he and Pogacar smash the TT too.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well, Pog is at the best level he has ever been, so it's a different scenario. I think Evenepoel normally goes faster, but this is not normal.

And Evenepoel has been much better in the past? He's climbing is likely better than during the '22 Vuelta, and he doesn't seem to have lost power on the flats with his weight loss so far. Pog took 17s uphill on Evenepoel today and two days ago he might even been able to follow his attack if it weren't for his poor positioning. Both times he was stronger than Pog on the flat sections.

Evenepoel being this close to Pog's level (on Pog's terrain) is just as big of a factor as Pog being "the best he's ever been". So why would you expect Pog to beat Evenepoel on his terrain?

 

[Berniece]

Great ride in the mountains by Evenepoel, if this is him not at his best we are in for a great race the second part of the race.

In case of the first TT, I expect him to win it by 20-30s on Pogacar, he won’t take yellow.

 

[Extinction]

And Evenepoel has been much better in the past? He's climbing is likely better than during the '22 Vuelta, and he doesn't seem to have lost power on the flats with his weight loss so far. Pog took 17s uphill on Evenepoel today and two days ago he might even been able to follow his attack if it weren't for his poor positioning. Both times he was stronger than Pog on the flat sections.

Evenepoel being this close to Pog's level (on Pog's terrain) is just as big of a factor as Pog being "the best he's ever been". So why would you expect Pog to beat Evenepoel on his terrain?

Because Pog has significantly improved his TT, as we saw against Ganna at the Giro. Remco was caught on the back foot twice and thus had to expend more energy to limit the losses. This means Pog may have, also with the Yellow Jersey, something more to express in the TT.

 

[memyselfandI]

Well it's 17 days still to go and probably Vingo wins this year just 3-4 minutes to Pogi because he's quite surely lower fitness and form..

Podium is deffo possible for Remco, but he must be careful with Carlito who seems to be contender this year too.

 

[velaso montador]

Great ride in the mountains by Evenepoel, if this is him not at his best we are in for a great race the second part of the race.

In case of the first TT, I expect him to win it by 20-30s on Pogacar, he won’t take yellow.

Pogacar is better than ever in TT and just next level but that TT vs Remco which obvious is the best in the world is gonne be interesting. Expect Remco to win but wouldnt be utterly shocked all im saying after the TT in giro vs Ganna which suits him less than this one.

That beeing said Remco fav and would be awesome to see him gain time on everyone and on Pogacar too then were talking. He is mean and lean and like i suspected/hoped think he will do his best ever GT ever and nothing would be better. 24 years old and will only get better, looking good.

 

[Low is rhe new high]

The problem for him is Pogacar and Vingegaard. He came into cycling at this moment, when there are two better. The only way things turn around at the Tour for him is if they decline sooner than later. Although if Pog keeps this up for another 10 years, I'll be off to the Carribean.

It could be that Pog and Vingegaard are peaking right now isn’t. 27-30 the optimal age for endurance athletes and Remco still can improve? It’s not that many percentage different if this is Remcos level now.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It could be that Pog and Vingegaard are peaking right now isn’t. 27-30 the optimal age for endurance athletes and Remco still can improve? It’s not that many percentage different if this is Remcos level now.

I have seen no signs of improvement over his (already-stellar) 2022 level in the past 1.5 years.

 

[Berniece]

Pogacar is better than ever in TT and just next level but that TT vs Remco which obvious is the best in the world is gonne be interesting. Expect Remco to win but wouldnt be utterly shocked all im saying after the TT in giro vs Ganna which suits him less than this one.

That beeing said Remco fav and would be awesome to see him gain time on everyone and on Pogacar too then were talking. He is mean and lean and like i suspected/hoped think he will do his best ever GT ever and nothing would be better. 24 years old and will only get better, looking good.

I don’t feel Ganna is a good metric anymore for TT. He isn’t as good as he used to be. And I would say that if you only lose 20-30s against Evenepoel you did very good. He’s the WC for a reason.

 

[Andre]

I liked the way Remco responded when Tadej attacked with one kilometer to the summit. First Vingo went, and then I saw Remco accelerate and almost catch Vingo...he then settled in and gapped everyone else it seemed. A little trouble on the downhill but much better than I expected. I believe Tadej went full gas and it all amounted to some seconds gained (what was it 40 45 seconds?) Maybe too much effort for less gain than he thought...just my observation. post scriptum: Vingo looks strong but will his form last?

 

[Extinction]

It could be that Pog and Vingegaard are peaking right now isn’t. 27-30 the optimal age for endurance athletes and Remco still can improve? It’s not that many percentage different if this is Remcos level now.

Remco can improve, but so can Pogacar and Vingegaard

 

[Extinction]

I liked the way Remco responded when Tadej attacked with one kilometer to the summit. First Vingo went, and then I saw Remco accelerate and almost catch Vingo...he then settled in and gapped everyone else it seemed. A little trouble on the downhill but much better than I expected. I believe Tadej went full gas and it all amounted to some seconds gained (what was it 40 45 seconds?) Maybe too much effort for less gain than he thought...just my observation. post scriptum: Vingo looks strong but will his form last?

Remco and Vingegaard lost too much time on the descent, but if Remco enters top form in week 2 and 3 it could get interesting.

 

[red_flanders]

Great result for Remco, as many have said. Looks super strong. The climbing times are incredible, so for him to be there...amazing.

He is burning matches he ideally shouldn't need to burn by losing so much time on the top of that descent. Catching back up...it's great he has the power, but imagine if he was descending well. He came over the top close to Vingo, if he catches him that's a two man race and all the rest have 15-30 seconds more against them.

It's not the worst thing, but it's costing him and limiting him for sure.

 

[Andre]

Remco can improve, but so can Pogacar and Vingegaard

I see what you mean Extinction, but Tadel and Vingo can very possibly backslide more than they can improve.