Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[rghysens]

Why do you think he might have 5 minutes of bad legs when climbing in Romandie? I have a feeling he's in similar "climbing" shape as he was in Paris-Nice last year. Wouldn't that be enough to win Romandie knowing there is a prologue and ITT?

In paris nice last year there wasn´t 20km @ 7%

 

[Berniece]

In paris nice last year there wasn´t 20km @ 7%

Sure, but he also showed that he was equal with Jorgenson and better than anyone else in the race uphill. He might not be at his needed GT weight, but not sure that is necessary to defeat Almeida.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

What I don't understand is the rainjacket 'management' and choice:
About choice:
I still see some flappy designs or designs that seem to be no stretch and some jackets with a shiny fabric. I would expect that the flappy (catches wind) / non-stretch (hinders racing) / shiny (not very breathable) jackets are a no-go. What works when it's pooring rain is either a small rainjacket without sleeves (I saw Ineos ride in those) and I know Gabba is a pretty good design (non-flappy, stretch, breathable and still relatively rain-resistant) and I would expect most teams ride with that or something with similar function.

That's for the choice, and I honestly don't know if all teams do that well.

The other thing is the rainjacket management:
When to wear a jacket and when not, is imho mostly determined by someone in the car having a good app predicting chance for more rainshowers, and a look around to see if competitors are still wearing or not.
Next, there is something to be said about how to put it on / take it off. If it's on at the start and off halfway the race, it should be fine to do it on the bike. But if it has to be on in the race, a non-sleeve jacket will generally work, but most jackets with sleeves are very hard to put on while racing. You could as well plan to put one one by having a controlled stop (like in a bike change) with some team mates. That would probably save more energy than to risk it to do it on the bike, or not dare to put one one and get cold.
Last, there is something to be said about changing a wet jacket for a dry one. I hardly ever see someone doing this, but I would assume it could be beneficial. I thought Nys did this in the race?

What's for sure is that Evenepoel not only made the (rookie) mistake to take it off too soon, but there was no plan at all what to do when it would start raining again. The team could either decide to ease up and allow Evenepoel to put on a new jacket, or they could have provided him or some of his helpers with small sleeveless jackets that fit in the back pockets, or they could at least have warned him through the radio that it was a big gamble to take it off with 75K to go.

 

[Jan the Man]

The rain jacket made no difference to the end result yesterday (in terms of victory). First and foremost different riders have a tendency to excel in different conditions. We know Pog thrives relative to others (of a similar statute/build) in poor weather. Remco getting cold may have resulted in a poorer result relative to some others he would be expected to beat.

His best explanation is that he is coming back from a long term injury - it is his thrid race day and some variance is to be absolutely expected. He performed above my expectations in Amstel, slightly below here.

He will be a strong second favourite for Liege. If he plays his cards right he could disrupt Pog’s plans, but Pog is justifiably the favourite.

Often it is not the riders who make these ‘excuses’ (i prefer explanation) but even if it is the rider it is understadable because they are looking for reasons why they did not meet what they consider optimal performance whether that is winning or getting a Top 10. For Pog and Remco most of the time optimal performance is winning but Top 3 minimum.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

The rain jacket made no difference to the end result yesterday (in terms of victory). First and foremost different riders have a tendency to excel in different conditions. We know Pog thrives relative to others (of a similar statute/build) in poor weather. Remco getting cold may have resulted in a poorer result relative to some others he would be expected to beat.

His best explanation is that he is coming back from a long term injury - it is his thrid race day and some variance is to be absolutely expected. He performed above my expectations in Amstel, slightly below here.

He will be a strong second favourite for Liege. If he plays his cards right he could disrupt Pog’s plans, but Pog is justifiably the favourite.

Often it is not the riders who make these ‘excuses’ (i prefer explanation) but even if it is the rider it is understadable because they are looking for reasons why they did not meet what they consider optimal performance whether that is winning or getting a Top 10. For Pog and Remco most of the time optimal performance is winning but Top 3 minimum.

All true, but my comment wasn't, in any way, suggesting anything about the results of the race. It's a general comment / question, with regards to how teams manage their rainy races and how they can optimise this. I also think that rain is factor that is very personal.

So if we're having to analyse the specifics of rainy racing and how the race favourites cope with that: imho the difference between Pog and other riders is even greater when the race faces adverse weather. So I expect, on Sunday with mild weather predicted, a slightly more balanced competition (with Pog still being the outright favourite).

 

[Berniece]

He will be a strong second favourite for Liege. If he plays his cards right he could disrupt Pog’s plans, but Pog is justifiably the favourite.

Not sure about that. UAE is so strong that they can just put the race in lock until Pogacar wants to attack. Don't think there's much to disrupt unless you are stronger, or almost as strong that you can sit in the wheel.

 

[Jan the Man]

Not sure about that. UAE is so strong that they can just put the race in lock until Pogacar wants to attack. Don't think there's much to disrupt unless you are stronger, or almost as strong that you can sit in the wheel.

Don’t think UAE will be as strong as you credit - Vermeesch who is a great workhorse but in place of Christen means they are losing climbing ability in the most climb heavy classic. Granted McNulty is a good tempo climber but if Remco goes on La Redoute i doubt Pog will resist following and making it a 2 up battle is his best shot- allowing UAE to control and waiting to Roche aux Facons will be a big mistake judging by Huy because it is a climb of not too dissimilar characteristic

 

[Berniece]

Don’t think UAE will be as strong as you credit - Vermeesch who is a great workhorse but in place of Christen means they are losing climbing ability in the most climb heavy classic. Granted McNulty is a good tempo climber but if Remco goes on La Redoute i doubt Pog will resist following and making it a 2 up battle is his best shot- allowing UAE to control and waiting to Roche aux Facons will be a big mistake judging by Huy because it is a climb of not too dissimilar characteristic

I think Pogacar will also want to go on La Redoute, and not wait longer. So if you want to disrupt that plan you need to go even earlier. Not a problem for Evenepoel, but if UAE takes control of the race from the start. I don't see a possibility for Evenepoel to go earlier.

Is it sure that Vermeersch replaces Christen? Because Christen is still on the startlist according to PCS. And there's also Sivakov.

 

[Red Rick]

The whole issue with Liege's route is generally the long easy section before La Redoute which limits any action before.

 

[Jan the Man]

I think Pogacar will also want to go on La Redoute, and not wait longer. So if you want to disrupt that plan you need to go even earlier. Not a problem for Evenepoel, but if UAE takes control of the race from the start. I don't see a possibility for Evenepoel to go earlier.

Is it sure that Vermeersch replaces Christen? Because Christen is still on the startlist according to PCS. And there's also Sivakov.

Fair comment- according to UAE communique Vermeersch is in place of Christen but take your point about PCS

 

[Berniece]

The whole issue with Liege's route is generally the long easy section before La Redoute which limits any action before.

You mean those 11km's between top of Desnie and bottom of La Redoute? That's true, I'm not sure you can make it so hard that if Evenepoel would attack after Desnie no one is able to follow (besides Pogacar), and if he decides not to follow, that UAE wouldn't have anyone there to help Pogacar during that 11km's.

If it's like in AGR, he can get a gap, and 8 riders aren't able to close it, sure. But that won't be the case there, and UAE will have riders in that group.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Evenepoel tends to overanalyze, look for excuses, it's almost like he feels like he should win and if he doesn't he owes us an explanation. It's okay Remco, you'll lose to Pogacar 9 out of 10 times, nothing to be ashamed or worried about. Sunday was an anomaly where Pogacar burned his matches too early. Still nearly won though...

I think that's more the case for his fans here than for Remco himself...

Van der poel can't have an excuse for the fact he was sick before Tour Flandres.

Evenepoel can't have any excuses when he came back 5 days ago from a serious crash.

Vingegaard can't have a excuse after the Tour when in April he almost died.

Pogacar can have all the excuses he wants. He lost the Tour because of the wrist, he loses Amstel because he was "tired".

Now this is just whining...
In the thread where it's regularly claimed that Pogacar has never properly beaten Remco, because.... excuses a-f. In the thread where the hardcore fanboys still refuse to acknowledge that Roglic during Remco's Vuelta clearly had a far from perfect preparation you claim it's the Pogacar fans that look for excuses?

Of course Vingegaard 24 had a far from perfect preparation, top Vingegaard that we hopefully see again this year can beat Pogacar. I claim that this year it will be Vingegaard winning again (but hope Pogacar).
Van der Poel, yes.. no.. he clearly was back pretty strong, no idea how much it cost him. And interestingly he himself clearly says that he doesn't want to use it as an excuse. Was sick, recovered, Pogacar was stronger, just facts, no would have, could have.
Evenepoel came back 5 days ago. Actually no, that doesn't really count. He clearly is well prepared, he showed what he can do in the 2 previous races. Mur de Huy just doesn't fit him as well, and again, they are not robots, better days, worse days. Was a worse one, that's all.

Liège? It's a 2 man race. Finally Pogacar vs Remco at Liège! Action normally starts at the Redoute, probably both want to go there. Can Remco drop Pogacar? It has never happened as far as I remember (The TdF when Pogacar just let Vingegaard deal with it doesn't count), but one day it will happen of course. Can Pogacar drop Remco? We'll see.. that's why we all hope neither crashes, so we can finally see that duel at L-B-L... As for Roche aux Faucons, well, it's still not Mur de Huy and it's not the finish. Pogacar clearly went to the limit, he looked pretty done on the top, normal, that's where he stops. A tough climb with more road after.. .different thing from this. Still more likely that Pogacar drops Remco there than the opposite, but it's not like it's completely impossible that Remco does it. Sprint? Again the same, Pogacar the favorite, but Remco's sprint has really improved, not impossible that he beats Pogacar. Basically in 3 key points Pogacar is more likely to be stronger than Remco, La Redoute, Roche, sprint, but he's not guaranteed to succeed either. 70-30 or so for Pogacar, cumulation of 3 rather pro-Pogacar points, if he doesn't go on La Redoute it's down to 65-35, if it comes to a sprint it's down to 60-40 or even 55-45, or let's say something in between 58-42! Having a third rider there would be a little sensation. (unless it's a survivor from an early break, but think even that is unlikely) Checked betting odds on one site now, 1.36 Pogacar, 5.0 Remco... if I was betting on cycling I would actually bet a bit on Remco on these odds, seems a bit too high to me, would expect it to be between 3+4 really.

Now if Remco doesn't end up first or second, but let's say 5th then yes, then it's the preparation, then it is the late comeback, normally Remco here either wins or ends up second behind Pogacar, nothing else, IMO even clearer that this is just a 2 man race than Flanders with Van der Poel and Pogacar.

 

[KenFiamingo]

Sure, but he also showed that he was equal with Jorgenson and better than anyone else in the race uphill. He might not be at his needed GT weight, but not sure that is necessary to defeat Almeida.

Almeida was quite solid at Itzulia. I know it's not exactly the same type of race and Almeida is not the most consistent rider, but i'd currently rate him higher than Remco on a 20km 7,7% climb.

 

[Berniece]

Almeida was quite solid at Itzulia. I know it's not exactly the same type of race and Almeida is not the most consistent rider, but i'd currently rate him higher than Remco on a 20km 7,7% climb.

True, Almeida also showed to be a bit better this year, actually more consistent than usually. But still, I expect Remco to be better, we'll see in 9 days.

 

[Berniece]

In other news, Evenepoel can count on Schachmann as well as Van Wilder in Liege.

Remco Evenepoel
Gil Gelders
Maximilian Schachmann
Pieter Serry
Ilan Van Wilder
Mauri Vansevenant
Louis Vervaeke

 

[jmdirt]

Ah cool, good to read. It's just that some people seem to have a thing against Remco, for some reason, and tend mock him a lot or are just generally negative about him, so I wasn't sure if this thread was going to be just mocking him,or whayever. I do like Remco, I think he's a phenomenal rider and he makes me laugh with his antics too. I like how he says what he thinks about things that annoy him. He's not afraid to speak up, perhaps too much at times but thats just him. Part of his charm, I guess, lol. I have many favourite riders but Remco's in my Top Ten for sure!

If you scroll through any of the rider threads you will find the same. Poor sportsmanship is recreation for some.

 

[jmdirt]

His best explanation is that he is coming back from a long term injury - it is his thrid race day and some variance is to be absolutely expected.

This

 

[LookProGoSlow]

re the jacket: he seems to have taking it off right after pogi took his off on the penultimate climb. They were the only 2 without legwarmers ánd without armwarmers🥶

 

[Berniece]

re the jacket: he seems to have taking it off right after pogi took his off on the penultimate climb. They were the only 2 without legwarmers ánd without armwarmers🥶

No. Evenepoel took it of after first time Mur de Huy.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

re the jacket: he seems to have taking it off right after pogi took his off on the penultimate climb. They were the only 2 without legwarmers ánd without armwarmers🥶

He took it off at 75K to go. From then on, he was wearing a long-sleeved non-rain jacket. The moment you’re talking about is when pog got rid of his rainjacket and Remco ditched his (probably soaking wet) long-sleeve jacket.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

He took it off at 75K to go. From then on, he was wearing a long-sleeved non-rain jacket. The moment you’re talking about is when pog got rid of his rainjacket and Remco ditched his (probably soaking wet) long-sleeve jacket.

ah cool! I stand corrected then and misinterpreted what I saw.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

ah cool! I stand corrected then and misinterpreted what I saw.

For once I saw the entire race and for once Remco was positioned well so cameras were on him

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This

And there would be no shame in admitting that. But they feel the need to come up with these explanations that actually make them look like incompetent fools. A bit like Visma supposedly finding the problem behind Uijtdebroeks bad performances, after searching for a year, to be adjusting his saddle height. Like, seriously, if that IS in fact what went wrong, and you didn't check/prevent this, are we dealing with amateurs?

 

[AmRacer]

And there would be no shame in admitting that. But they feel the need to come up with these explanations that actually make them look like incompetent fools. A bit like Visma supposedly finding the problem behind Uijtdebroeks bad performances, after searching for a year, to be adjusting his saddle height. Like, seriously, if that IS in fact what went wrong, and you didn't check/prevent this, are we dealing with amateurs?

@Froome also adjusted his saddle height the other year, and it didn't help a bit. Could've learned from it.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You mean those 11km's between top of Desnie and bottom of La Redoute? That's true, I'm not sure you can make it so hard that if Evenepoel would attack after Desnie no one is able to follow (besides Pogacar), and if he decides not to follow, that UAE wouldn't have anyone there to help Pogacar during that 11km's.

If it's like in AGR, he can get a gap, and 8 riders aren't able to close it, sure. But that won't be the case there, and UAE will have riders in that group.

Well, if they want to surprise Pogacar and really put him through the wringer, it could be part of a scenario if they are willing to take a gamble (which they will need to do either way if they want to win), in case they are able to completely explode the race before that. Rosier and Desnié are at 60 and 47km before the finish, so within "solo" territory. That means after already 192 and 205km. In theory that should be enough to already make the race so hard that there are not many domestiques left on Desnié. If Evenepoel is solo on the section between Desnié and Redoute, and by that time the peloton is shattered with only few favorites left in a group with Pogacar and perhaps McNulty, they will all be looking at McNulty to do the work, just like they were looking at Van Wilder in Amstel. But unlike Van Wilder in Amstel, who virtually lost no time to Pogacar, i can't see McNulty losing no time to Evenepoel on an 11km slightly downhill section. Then Pog will try to go solo over Redoute and needs to bridge maybe 45 seconds. With two other ~10km flat sections between Redoute and Liège, Pog would need to be in much better shape than Amstel to close the gap, and if he manages, he would surely also have dug deep. Ideally, QS would have had a teammate up the road that could help out underway.

If Evenepoel waits for Pog to attack on Redoute, he will be on the backfoot playing catch up. He would then either still need Van Wilder to pace him until Forges or cooperation from other favorites. Then leave Pog dangling before reeling him in, but then he would once again need to rely on his sprint in the end, most likely.