Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm not comparing with the dauphine of last year. more like difference in the tour.

Ok. I'm not expecting him to beat Pogacar at the Tour, but relative to their actual current level, i'm quite convinced he was being held back (be it by the crash or pollen) more compared to other riders. I just don't know how you can come to any conclusion after this weekend. We didn't get to see where he actually is.

 

[jmdirt]

Because he doesn’t want to look for excuses

IMO, he openly discusses things that may be messing with his performance, but honesty is rewarded with "he's just making excuses". The crash effected him. If his allergies are affecting his breathing, then that is effecting him. Not excuses, just facts.

Its a strange thing really: if racers are coy, they get criticized, and if they are honest they get criticized, so its really a no win.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Ok. I'm not expecting him to beat Pogacar at the Tour, but relative to their actual current level, i'm quite convinced he was being held back (be it by the crash or pollen) more compared to other riders. I just don't know how you can come to any conclusion after this weekend. We didn't get to see where he actually is.

That is why i said wait and see. solid performance and hope remains.

I think his level is on par with the other podium candidates atm. If he stays healthy i think he'll be good enough to podium. But the goal was to creep closer. And I haven't seen that yet. Maybe cause of crash & pollen. Maybe he is in truth better than what we've seen. It's still a bit of a question mark. But i haven't seen enough to say he will be better than last year. But for his weight being better , and with luck he will have a better last prep before the start. Beyond that, he seems on the same difference with Pogacar & Vingegaard that he was last year during the tour.

I just hope he won't run into any problems. Both in his lead-up to the tour. as during the tour. I'd rather see him have an offday like he had in the vuelta 23. Than see him crash hard again. remco absolutely needs the next 2 years to be relative damage free

 

[Berniece]

IMO, he openly discusses things that may be messing with his performance, but honesty is rewarded with "he's just making excuses". The crash effected him. If his allergies are affecting his breathing, then that is effecting him. Not excuses, just facts.

Its a strange thing really: if racers are coy, they get criticized, and if they are honest they get criticized, so its really a no win.

I’m happy he’s just transparent and says what he thinks. What others think of it doesn’t matter. I just take it at face value

 

[wheresmybrakes]

He’s the third best climber in the world, so then no one is a super climber besides Pogacar and Vingegaard

No he isn't. There are other better climbers in the peloton, who just happen to be doms in other teams. He's lucky he has an ITT to keep him at the pointy end of races.

 

[Berniece]

No he isn't. There are other better climbers in the peloton, who just happen to be doms in other teams. He's lucky he has an ITT to keep him at the pointy end of races.

Who? Because purely based on results and whatever internet people calculate w/kg he’s doing better.

So give me names that you think are better climbers than peak TDF’24 Evenepoel

 

[AmRacer]

Who? Because purely based on results and whatever internet people calculate w/kg he’s doing better.

So give me names that you think are better climbers than peak TDF’24 Evenepoel

We are in 2025 now 🤣

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Who? Because purely based on results and whatever internet people calculate w/kg he’s doing better.

So give me names that you think are better climbers than peak TDF’24 Evenepoel

Well Lipowitz was a better climber in this race than Remco. If Remco is supposedly the 3rd best, he should be dispatching of Lipo easily. The Yates bro's, Kuss, Bernal, Roglic, Skyelmose, Dani Martinez, Caruso, even on his day WVA is a better climber. On his day, Remco can be the best unfortunately he's too inconsistent.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

If he is hampered by pollen allergy (presumably grass pollen as they are in bloom this time off year) then he will have the same problem every year and well into July. I know because I suffer from grass pollen allergy myself and my legs are just not responding the same as usual. What is normally tempo feels like threshold and threshold feels like vo2max. I.e. unsustainable. It is a real f**ker I can tell you. Though there is some variety from year to year in terms of severity and onset, typically from start of May to end of July the ‘peak’ season occurs. For those who want to know what is the 101 on pollen allergy: essentially your body responds to harmless pollen as though it is fighting a virus. Costs shitloads of energy and leaves the individual exhausted and out of whack.

 

[Berniece]

Well Lipowitz was a better climber in this race than Remco. If Remco is supposedly the 3rd best, he should be dispatching of Lipo easily. The Yates bro's, Kuss, Bernal, Roglic, Skyelmose, Dani Martinez, Caruso, even on his day WVA is a better climber. On his day, Remco can be the best unfortunately he's too inconsistent.

What kind of logic is that? In that case Jan Christen is a better climber than Vingegaard after Volta oa Algarve

 

[Jan the Man]

Dauphines ticked - some positives with the stage win and getting more race miles in. Clear favourite for the 3rd podium spot. Be interesting to see how he measures come 3rd week Vs Pog and Vigno to see if any improvement relative to last year. Difficult to see him realistically challenging them given their climbing superiority but a TT win and yellow jersey as well as overall podium would be a good tour and who knows with the first week this year pretty inevitable there will be crashes (not that anybody should wish badly for anyone just the reality of cycling)- if he avoids those and others are less fortunate he could be posted to take advantage.

 

[houtdffan]

No he isn't. There are other better climbers in the peloton, who just happen to be doms in other teams. He's lucky he has an ITT to keep him at the pointy end of races.

lucky?

ITT is an integral part of the sport!

 

[KoopaCycling]

14 Juli, almost still a month till we hit the mountains in theTdF. that is still a long, and a short time off.
We do get 2 short steep climbs before that. But the timegaps should not be too big after those.
I mean with Pogacar you never know. But still. a month till the TdF truly starts. Before that it's basically surviving to stay in it. Thatswhy this years TdF i do'nt feel like Remco not having the best mountain teammates matters all that much. He needs rouleurs to keep him safe and not losing needless time until then. Once you hit the mountains form of the day will take over imo.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If he is hampered by pollen allergy (presumably grass pollen as they are in bloom this time off year) then he will have the same problem every year and well into July.

He complained about it last year as well.

Remco Evenepoel, die last heeft van allergie, blijft realistisch: "Ik verwacht niet mee te doen voor ritwinst" | sporza

Na het tijdverlies van gisteren heeft Remco Evenepoel een woelige nacht achter de rug. De Belgische kampioen heeft last van de pollen en ook zijn huisstofmijtallergie speelt op. "We sliepen in een hotel met een tapijt. Dat maakt het niet gemakkelijk", aldus Evenepoel voor de start van rit 7 in...

sporza.be

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So after the race he says he never felt 100% this weekend, but sunday he did feel better. And now they are indeed referring to the crash and his allergies as likely explanations.

"Ik moest nog iets proberen, hé": Evenepoel sluit Dauphiné "positief" af, maar herhaalt: "Ik ben niet 100% geweest" | sporza

Op de slotdag liet Remco Evenepoel toch nog even van zich horen. De kopman van Soudal-Quick Step had de voorbije twee dagen bergop moeten ondergaan, maar brak vandaag de finale zelf voorzichtig open. Het leverde hem in het klassement weinig op, maar mentaal leek het hem toch deugd te doen. "Ik...

sporza.be

 

[jmdirt]

If he is hampered by pollen allergy (presumably grass pollen as they are in bloom this time off year) then he will have the same problem every year and well into July. I know because I suffer from grass pollen allergy myself and my legs are just not responding the same as usual. What is normally tempo feels like threshold and threshold feels like vo2max. I.e. unsustainable. It is a real f**ker I can tell you. Though there is some variety from year to year in terms of severity and onset, typically from start of May to end of July the ‘peak’ season occurs. For those who want to know what is the 101 on pollen allergy: essentially your body responds to harmless pollen as though it is fighting a virus. Costs shitloads of energy and leaves the individual exhausted and out of whack.

If he had a full on immune response like you described (sorry you deal with that every year) he would have been in the grupetto. Based on what we saw and heard, he was dealing with upper reparatory congestion, which in an oxygen sport is tough.

 

[KoopaCycling]

well if Remco is permanently nerfed during early summer, giro and vuelta may end up better fits

 

[jmdirt]

well if Remco is permanently nerfed during early summer, giro and vuelta may end up better fits

That, or select race locations that don't have pollen that his body reacts to. For example would TdS be better prep than CdD?

Finding an approved treatment might also be beneficial, but while those treatments might help with allergy symptoms, they might have negative performance impacts of their own.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I'm pretty sure he will race the Giro next year. Unfortunately for him, Vingegaard might race it if he loses the Tour by a significant margin (more than 3 minutes).

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Remco at his peak is a top 3-4 climber alongside Roglic, but I agree with others: the problem is that he is rarely at peak climbing powers. Think about how often Roglic has crashed out of races, and yet since Remco came back from his injury in 2021, Roglic has 2 Vuelta, 1 Giro, and, what 4 or 5 one week stage races? Remco has 1 Vuelta…

Again, at his peak, Roglic and Remco might be at parity, but if you randomly pick a day for Remco to race, I don’t think he’s likely to be top 3 or 5. Roglic had a much higher floor, for example, but not necessarily a higher ceiling.

Pogacar of course has the highest ceiling and seemingly the floor is close to the ceiling. Vingegaard not far off from that.

Remco is the outlier in fluctuating floor. Is there an argument against this?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remco at his peak is a top 3-4 climber alongside Roglic, but I agree with others: the problem is that he is rarely at peak climbing powers. Think about how often Roglic has crashed out of races, and yet since Remco came back from his injury in 2021, Roglic has 2 Vuelta, 1 Giro, and, what 4 or 5 one week stage races? Remco has 1 Vuelta…

Again, at his peak, Roglic and Remco might be at parity, but if you randomly pick a day for Remco to race, I don’t think he’s likely to be top 3 or 5. Roglic had a much higher floor, for example, but not necessarily a higher ceiling.

Pogacar of course has the highest ceiling and seemingly the floor is close to the ceiling. Vingegaard not far off from that.

Remco is the outlier in fluctuating floor. Is there an argument against this?

I think Evenepoel's ceiling is higher than Roglic's. And in most situations his floor is a lot higher than Roglic's as well. Except for climbing. Here for Evenepoel everything needs to be exactly right. Your statement is true regarding climbing. Roglic can be hit by a bulldozer and still be close to his top. Evenepoel needs to have his weight down, not get cold, not get hot, not fall off his bike at 5 kmh and then imho he drops Roglic. The problem is that it seems near impossible for him to get things just right.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I think Evenepoel's ceiling is higher than Roglic's. And in most situations his floor is a lot higher than Roglic's as well. Except for climbing. Here for Evenepoel everything needs to be exactly right. Your statement is true regarding climbing. Roglic can be hit by a bulldozer and still be close to his top. Evenepoel needs to have his weight down, not get cold, not get hot, not fall off his bike at 5 kmh and then imho he drops Roglic. The problem is that it seems near impossible for him to get things just right.

Everything I wrote was in the context of climbing and, by extension, GC performance. What is your evidence that Remco has a higher climbing and GC ceiling and floor than Roglic?

 

[hayneplane]

I think Evenepoel's ceiling is higher than Roglic's. And in most situations his floor is a lot higher than Roglic's as well. Except for climbing. Here for Evenepoel everything needs to be exactly right. Your statement is true regarding climbing. Roglic can be hit by a bulldozer and still be close to his top. Evenepoel needs to have his weight down, not get cold, not get hot, not fall off his bike at 5 kmh and then imho he drops Roglic. The problem is that it seems near impossible for him to get things just right.

That’s his biggest impediment for grand tours that he needs the Goldilocks and the three bears thing of being just right. Anything other than perfect condition, no crashes or illness/allergy issues and his level drops far more than any other top rider.

Much easier to have it all be alright on the night in a one day race which has been his true forte so far.

 

[Extinction]

He arrived at the wrong moment.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Everything I wrote was in the context of climbing and, by extension, GC performance. What is your evidence that Remco has a higher climbing and GC ceiling and floor than Roglic?

That his floor is higher was in regards to him being an all-rounder who can win races against a good field when he is not close to peak shape let alone weight. Like coming back from injury and beating Van Aert in a sprint. Or going to Figuera looking like a ball of lard and soloing to the finish after placing one attack. I wasn't talking about him as a climber. There it is very much the opposite.

His ceiling being higher (as a climber) is just a feeling based on comparisons also with other riders, not per se only on head to head.