Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[peterfin]

Pogacar 2022-2023 30-40min climbs were in the 6.1 - 6.4 w/kg range, similar to Remco's 2022-2023/3 (Catalunya) period. Since 2024, Pog has increased to 6.7-6.9 w/kg, so almost 10%, while remco's peak is around 6.4-6.5 w/kg (TdF 2024).

Source: watts2win (not perfect but it's a relative comparison and aggregate numbers)

This is just one metric but it gives clear facts about what we are talking about, when Logic or others compare Pogacar 2022-2023 vs Pogacar 2024-2025 and relative to Remco.

If we take the hypothesis accepted by the majority of the cycling world, basically that this is due much better training methods at UAE combined with marginal gains, we should also accept that this competitive edge is not durable. Other teams, especially those with the financial means, will catch up. As Pogacar and Evenepoel were close prior to Pogacar's upgrade at UAE, there is no reason to believe Remco cannot improve a lot too and challenge him in the future.

The reasoning above is why many here still believe Remco can catch up. There is nothing "disillusional" about this argument. Any reference to race anecdotes, relative wins or whatever does not change the argument that Pogacar boosted his performance and that this boost is not a competitive edge he will keep. The general improvement of the UAE team shows that this edge is not personal but general applicable.

 

[gunara]

Inter-season comparisons are useless IMO.

But Remco's fans have always obsessed by it since May 2021. In the past, it's because he's seen as being not as good as before. And now that he's good again, it's because someone else has become too good for him.

 

[Salvarani]

Pogacar 2022-2023 30-40min climbs were in the 6.1 - 6.4 w/kg range, similar to Remco's 2022-2023/3 (Catalunya) period. Since 2024, Pog has increased to 6.7-6.9 w/kg, so almost 10%, while remco's peak is around 6.4-6.5 w/kg (TdF 2024).

Source: watts2win (not perfect but it's a relative comparison and aggregate numbers)

This is just one metric but it gives clear facts about what we are talking about, when Logic or others compare Pogacar 2022-2023 vs Pogacar 2024-2025 and relative to Remco.

If we take the hypothesis accepted by the majority of the cycling world, basically that this is due much better training methods at UAE combined with marginal gains, we should also accept that this competitive edge is not durable. Other teams, especially those with the financial means, will catch up. As Pogacar and Evenepoel were close prior to Pogacar's upgrade at UAE, there is no reason to believe Remco cannot improve a lot too and challenge him in the future.

The reasoning above is why many here still believe Remco can catch up. There is nothing "disillusional" about this argument. Any reference to race anecdotes, relative wins or whatever does not change the argument that Pogacar boosted his performance and that this boost is not a competitive edge he will keep. The general improvement of the UAE team shows that this edge is not personal but general applicable.

It is not as simple as that and I dont see other UAE riders beating Pog atm.

They have also recruited some of the best talents and best riders from other teams.

Wellens was always a good rider, Narvaez was being underrated at both Soudal and then really bloomed out in his last season with Ineos before moving on to UAE, Yates has been a great rider for +10 years, Majka as well before only being a super-dom... the list can go on. Like McNulty was highly rated very early on. This is not simply by luck or some other things.

There is a lot of factors involved why they have been dominating in the last couple or a few years, but some are too lazy to acknowledge it.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It is not as simple as that and I dont see other UAE riders beating Pog atm.

They have also recruited some of the best talents and best riders from other teams.

Wellens was always a good rider, Narvaez was being underrated at both Soudal and then really bloomed out in his last season with Ineos before moving on to UAE, Yates has been a great rider for +10 years, Majka as well before only being a super-dom... the list can go on. Like McNulty was highly rated very early on. This is not simply by luck or some other things.

There is a lot of factors involved why they have been dominating in the last couple or a few years, but some are too lazy to acknowledge it.

And you are forgetting one thing very important.
Some Remco fans continue to have a very "dellusional thought". This thought is "if Pogacar can do, Remco can do too". This is so wrong, what Pogacar does is completely an outlier, "one in million times". So the Pogacar's improvement is something so extraordinary that Remco (or any top rider) will most likely never make such improvement.

 

[Salvarani]

And you are forgetting one thing very important.
Some Remco fans continue to have a very "dellusional thought". This thought is "if Pogacar can do, Remco can do too". This is so wrong, what Pogacar does is completely an outlier, "one in "
million times". So the Pogacar's improvement is something so extraordinary that Remco (or any top rider) will most likely never make such improvement.

Yup, Pog is just one of a kind.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar 2022-2023 30-40min climbs were in the 6.1 - 6.4 w/kg range, similar to Remco's 2022-2023/3 (Catalunya) period. Since 2024, Pog has increased to 6.7-6.9 w/kg, so almost 10%, while remco's peak is around 6.4-6.5 w/kg (TdF 2024).

Source: watts2win (not perfect but it's a relative comparison and aggregate numbers)

This is just one metric but it gives clear facts about what we are talking about, when Logic or others compare Pogacar 2022-2023 vs Pogacar 2024-2025 and relative to Remco.

If we take the hypothesis accepted by the majority of the cycling world, basically that this is due much better training methods at UAE combined with marginal gains, we should also accept that this competitive edge is not durable. Other teams, especially those with the financial means, will catch up. As Pogacar and Evenepoel were close prior to Pogacar's upgrade at UAE, there is no reason to believe Remco cannot improve a lot too and challenge him in the future.

The reasoning above is why many here still believe Remco can catch up. There is nothing "disillusional" about this argument. Any reference to race anecdotes, relative wins or whatever does not change the argument that Pogacar boosted his performance and that this boost is not a competitive edge he will keep. The general improvement of the UAE team shows that this edge is not personal but general applicable.

Just to clarify, are you implying Remco was as good as Pogacar in long climbs (in 2022-2023)?

 

[AmRacer]

Just to clarify, are you implying Remco was as good as Pogacar in long climbs (in 2022-2023)?

And Remco jumped the Tour.😁

 

[KoopaCycling]

I saw remco drop pogacar in EC 21. So not like it never happened. Just the one time i can recall. But it was before the fall of 23.

 

[AlpRaid]

pog focused on long climbing in 2024 and did season with ton of stage racing and climbing.just sayin,lol.

Oh I had no idea that’s all anyone has to do to make a huge jump. Don’t tell the other riders about this groundbreaking training regimen, whatever you do!!

🤓

 

[AmRacer]

Oh I had no idea that’s all anyone has to do to make a huge jump. Don’t tell the other riders about this groundbreaking training regimen, whatever you do!!

🤓

See 2024 tour, a hard crash makes wounders for your climbing.

 

[Salvarani]

See 2024 tour, a hard crash makes wounders for your climbing.

Probably lost a couple of kilos from eating the hospital food.

 

[peterfin]

And you are forgetting one thing very important.
Some Remco fans continue to have a very "dellusional thought". This thought is "if Pogacar can do, Remco can do too". This is so wrong, what Pogacar does is completely an outlier, "one in million times". So the Pogacar's improvement is something so extraordinary that Remco (or any top rider) will most likely never make such improvement.

Be aware that this is your belief, not a fact. A 'one in million times' outlier is just not probable at all. Statistally this is a 5 sigma event. This does not happen unless we are very, very, very lucky. It's much more probable that Pogacar is an outlier, a 3 sigma event (1 out of a few hundred pro riders) amplified by being in the best team. This means that there is a big chance there are others that can challenge him if they have access to the same treatment.

 

[AmRacer]

Be aware that this is your belief, not a fact. A 'one in million times' outlier is just not probable at all. Statistally this is a 5 sigma event. This does not happen unless we are very, very, very lucky. It's much more probable that Pogacar is an outlier, a 3 sigma event (1 out of a few hundred pro riders) amplified by being in the best team. This means that there is a big chance there are others that can challenge him if they have access to the same treatment.

That's your belief, right?

 

[peterfin]

Just to clarify, are you implying Remco was as good as Pogacar in long climbs (in 2022-2023)?

No. I think Pogacar was still beter during that period, especially considering a stage with multiple hard climbs. But for stages with a single climb, he was at a similar level. He did a few ~6.4 w/kg climbs but just below the 30 min mark. Gaustatoppen is even listed as 6.5 w/kg but that sealevel climb was probably in optimal conditions. My point is that they were much closer then and there is no reason to believe Remco cannot catch up. To be clear: I am not saying Remco will become the better rider. I say he can improve to challenge him. He is one of those outliers too.

 

[peterfin]

That's your belief, right?

No this is statistics.

 

[AmRacer]

No this is statistics.

Nope

 

[Salvarani]

I would rather look at things adding up and the compound on interest, rather than "statistics". Hogwash.

 

[peterfin]

Nope

Explain.

 

[Peyroteo94]

No this is statistics.

Saying 2022 Remco was close to Pogacar in long climbs is anything but statistics (you even said they were similar in unipuerto stages. Do you think he could follow peak 2022 or 2023 Pogacar and you say statistics show this? Wow!)
He was closer than now but he wasn't close by any means.

 

[Berniece]

Saying 2022 Remco was close to Pogacar in long climbs is anything but statistics (you even said they were similar in unipuerto stages. Do you think he could follow peak 2022 or 2023 Pogacar and you say statistics show this? Wow!)
He was closer than now but he wasn't close by any means.

He doesn't say this based on feeling, like you are, but based on numbers. He even showed you his sources.

 

[AmRacer]

Explain.

Others have explained

 

[AmRacer]

Saying 2022 Remco was close to Pogacar in long climbs is anything but statistics (you even said they were similar in unipuerto stages. Do you think he could follow peak 2022 or 2023 Pogacar and you say statistics show this? Wow!)
He was closer than now but he wasn't close by any means.

Some doesn't believe in facts.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If anything I'm mostly astounded by the continuous tactical ineptitude. Basically rolling out the carpet for Pogacar every race.

And yet it is probably the best strategy if you want to catch him on a bad day. If you are catching him on a good day, at this moment, there simply is nothing to be done, unless maybe you have teammates who are strong enough to force the issue. But waiting longer, sending Vervaeke en Lecerf up the road, really isn't going to be doing you any good in that scenario either. You would need two Van Wilders and two Van Aerts if you want to play that game, all in top shape.
However, if you catch him on a bad day, and you wait and don't really test him, chances are you will be bringing him closer to the finish unknowingly that he might have been beaten, and he can still beat you in the sprint.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Revisionism trading high right now I guess?

The "jump" by Pogacar from 24 on is incredibly overstated. The watts! Plateau de Beille. Whatever, you guys really think everybody just got sooooo much better in one year? So that the lower number Pogacar of 20-21 would be beaten by x riders from 24? Keep dreaming. Good conditions, way of riding, numbers are number, what counts is the result. And there were some impressive rides by Pogacar in 22-23 as well. He won Tirreno, Paris-Nice, Flanders, Strade Bianche, twice Lombardia, Flèche, Amstel. And no, Healy wasn't coming back, no it wasn't the car that was indeed too close for a short while that made the difference. Also "freaking" Ben Healy... yes, Remco is a stronger more accomplished rider. But well, Remco only beat freaking Ben Healy for second place in Kigali. And Pogacar only beat freaking Remco there. Not worth much this Pogi win... A bit of respect for other riders might not hurt the Remco fanboys.... I mean Healy is closer to Remco than freaking Remco is to Pogacar at this point.

The funniest part about the whole revisionism though is that now 2024 Remco is suddenly something great. Until a few months ago it was "if he hadn't crashed in the Basque country....."

As for Remco's cooking skills. He sure cooked Skjelmose in Amstel this year. He sure cooked Colbrelli at the EC a few years back. Ah well, yes. Some more cooking classes please. Couldn't drop freaking Skjelmose and freaking Colbrelli.... what a weakling.

That said, Remco's 2 LBL wins were impressive. Second more than the first for me. If Pogacar was there? a) he wasn't, so it doesn't matter, well was but crashed out once. b) Pogacar wasn't guaranteed a win. He would have started as pre-race favorite in both. Yes that weakling 20-23 would have been favorite... But a win wasn't guaranteed
And no, Pogacar wasn't guaranteed to win. He won't be in 26 either. But in retrospect, and actually at the time too. If Pogacar is there, he's the favorite. That doesn't guarantee a win. He won't have a guaranteed win in 26 either, a Remco with a normal winter will do much better than 25. Can he follow Pogacar? Not impossible. Can he beat him in a sprint? That too, not impossible. Pogacar is fast, but Remco had improved quite a bit in that, not seen it lately, he never gets to sprint for anything... But he'd become quite fast too. And at some point it will happen that Remco will beat Pogacar. And freaking Healy at some point will beat Remco... Like Skjelmose this year he might even beat both...

Anyway, let's not pretend Pogacar was somehow not the best cyclist around in 22-23, he was. He was beaten twice by Vingegaard in the Tour. That's it. A very strong Vingegaard, winning mentality you know... But Pogacar's results over the season still made him the best.

 

[peterfin]

I would rather look at things adding up and the compound on interest, rather than "statistics". Hogwash.

Sure but looking at past outcomes only without considering a realistic base level for Pogacar and how his level improved due to circumstances (UAE upgrade) set you up for surprises. That's what Bayesian statistics tells you. Check it out. If Pogacar is not that uber-Merckx level but just an outlier, one of the few basically, we will eventually know. This is still the more likely version considering his history. It's not at all about belief.