Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[gunara]

Inter-season comparisons are useless IMO.

But Remco's fans have always obsessed by it since May 2021. In the past, it's because he's seen as being not as good as before. And now that he's good again, it's because someone else has become too good for him.

 

[Salvarani]

Pogacar 2022-2023 30-40min climbs were in the 6.1 - 6.4 w/kg range, similar to Remco's 2022-2023/3 (Catalunya) period. Since 2024, Pog has increased to 6.7-6.9 w/kg, so almost 10%, while remco's peak is around 6.4-6.5 w/kg (TdF 2024).

Source: watts2win (not perfect but it's a relative comparison and aggregate numbers)

This is just one metric but it gives clear facts about what we are talking about, when Logic or others compare Pogacar 2022-2023 vs Pogacar 2024-2025 and relative to Remco.

If we take the hypothesis accepted by the majority of the cycling world, basically that this is due much better training methods at UAE combined with marginal gains, we should also accept that this competitive edge is not durable. Other teams, especially those with the financial means, will catch up. As Pogacar and Evenepoel were close prior to Pogacar's upgrade at UAE, there is no reason to believe Remco cannot improve a lot too and challenge him in the future.

The reasoning above is why many here still believe Remco can catch up. There is nothing "disillusional" about this argument. Any reference to race anecdotes, relative wins or whatever does not change the argument that Pogacar boosted his performance and that this boost is not a competitive edge he will keep. The general improvement of the UAE team shows that this edge is not personal but general applicable.

It is not as simple as that and I dont see other UAE riders beating Pog atm.

They have also recruited some of the best talents and best riders from other teams.

Wellens was always a good rider, Narvaez was being underrated at both Soudal and then really bloomed out in his last season with Ineos before moving on to UAE, Yates has been a great rider for +10 years, Majka as well before only being a super-dom... the list can go on. Like McNulty was highly rated very early on. This is not simply by luck or some other things.

There is a lot of factors involved why they have been dominating in the last couple or a few years, but some are too lazy to acknowledge it.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It is not as simple as that and I dont see other UAE riders beating Pog atm.

They have also recruited some of the best talents and best riders from other teams.

Wellens was always a good rider, Narvaez was being underrated at both Soudal and then really bloomed out in his last season with Ineos before moving on to UAE, Yates has been a great rider for +10 years, Majka as well before only being a super-dom... the list can go on. Like McNulty was highly rated very early on. This is not simply by luck or some other things.

There is a lot of factors involved why they have been dominating in the last couple or a few years, but some are too lazy to acknowledge it.

And you are forgetting one thing very important.
Some Remco fans continue to have a very "dellusional thought". This thought is "if Pogacar can do, Remco can do too". This is so wrong, what Pogacar does is completely an outlier, "one in million times". So the Pogacar's improvement is something so extraordinary that Remco (or any top rider) will most likely never make such improvement.

 

[Salvarani]

And you are forgetting one thing very important.
Some Remco fans continue to have a very "dellusional thought". This thought is "if Pogacar can do, Remco can do too". This is so wrong, what Pogacar does is completely an outlier, "one in "
million times". So the Pogacar's improvement is something so extraordinary that Remco (or any top rider) will most likely never make such improvement.

Yup, Pog is just one of a kind.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar 2022-2023 30-40min climbs were in the 6.1 - 6.4 w/kg range, similar to Remco's 2022-2023/3 (Catalunya) period. Since 2024, Pog has increased to 6.7-6.9 w/kg, so almost 10%, while remco's peak is around 6.4-6.5 w/kg (TdF 2024).

Source: watts2win (not perfect but it's a relative comparison and aggregate numbers)

This is just one metric but it gives clear facts about what we are talking about, when Logic or others compare Pogacar 2022-2023 vs Pogacar 2024-2025 and relative to Remco.

If we take the hypothesis accepted by the majority of the cycling world, basically that this is due much better training methods at UAE combined with marginal gains, we should also accept that this competitive edge is not durable. Other teams, especially those with the financial means, will catch up. As Pogacar and Evenepoel were close prior to Pogacar's upgrade at UAE, there is no reason to believe Remco cannot improve a lot too and challenge him in the future.

The reasoning above is why many here still believe Remco can catch up. There is nothing "disillusional" about this argument. Any reference to race anecdotes, relative wins or whatever does not change the argument that Pogacar boosted his performance and that this boost is not a competitive edge he will keep. The general improvement of the UAE team shows that this edge is not personal but general applicable.

Just to clarify, are you implying Remco was as good as Pogacar in long climbs (in 2022-2023)?

 

[AmRacer]

Just to clarify, are you implying Remco was as good as Pogacar in long climbs (in 2022-2023)?

And Remco jumped the Tour.😁

 

[KoopaCycling]

I saw remco drop pogacar in EC 21. So not like it never happened. Just the one time i can recall. But it was before the fall of 23.

 

[AlpRaid]

pog focused on long climbing in 2024 and did season with ton of stage racing and climbing.just sayin,lol.

Oh I had no idea that’s all anyone has to do to make a huge jump. Don’t tell the other riders about this groundbreaking training regimen, whatever you do!!

🤓

 

[AmRacer]

Oh I had no idea that’s all anyone has to do to make a huge jump. Don’t tell the other riders about this groundbreaking training regimen, whatever you do!!

🤓

See 2024 tour, a hard crash makes wounders for your climbing.

 

[Salvarani]

See 2024 tour, a hard crash makes wounders for your climbing.

Probably lost a couple of kilos from eating the hospital food.

 

[peterfin]

And you are forgetting one thing very important.
Some Remco fans continue to have a very "dellusional thought". This thought is "if Pogacar can do, Remco can do too". This is so wrong, what Pogacar does is completely an outlier, "one in million times". So the Pogacar's improvement is something so extraordinary that Remco (or any top rider) will most likely never make such improvement.

Be aware that this is your belief, not a fact. A 'one in million times' outlier is just not probable at all. Statistally this is a 5 sigma event. This does not happen unless we are very, very, very lucky. It's much more probable that Pogacar is an outlier, a 3 sigma event (1 out of a few hundred pro riders) amplified by being in the best team. This means that there is a big chance there are others that can challenge him if they have access to the same treatment.

 

[AmRacer]

Be aware that this is your belief, not a fact. A 'one in million times' outlier is just not probable at all. Statistally this is a 5 sigma event. This does not happen unless we are very, very, very lucky. It's much more probable that Pogacar is an outlier, a 3 sigma event (1 out of a few hundred pro riders) amplified by being in the best team. This means that there is a big chance there are others that can challenge him if they have access to the same treatment.

That's your belief, right?

 

[peterfin]

Just to clarify, are you implying Remco was as good as Pogacar in long climbs (in 2022-2023)?

No. I think Pogacar was still beter during that period, especially considering a stage with multiple hard climbs. But for stages with a single climb, he was at a similar level. He did a few ~6.4 w/kg climbs but just below the 30 min mark. Gaustatoppen is even listed as 6.5 w/kg but that sealevel climb was probably in optimal conditions. My point is that they were much closer then and there is no reason to believe Remco cannot catch up. To be clear: I am not saying Remco will become the better rider. I say he can improve to challenge him. He is one of those outliers too.

 

[peterfin]

That's your belief, right?

No this is statistics.

 

[Salvarani]

I would rather look at things adding up and the compound on interest, rather than "statistics". Hogwash.

 

[Peyroteo94]

No this is statistics.

Saying 2022 Remco was close to Pogacar in long climbs is anything but statistics (you even said they were similar in unipuerto stages. Do you think he could follow peak 2022 or 2023 Pogacar and you say statistics show this? Wow!)
He was closer than now but he wasn't close by any means.

 

[Berniece]

Saying 2022 Remco was close to Pogacar in long climbs is anything but statistics (you even said they were similar in unipuerto stages. Do you think he could follow peak 2022 or 2023 Pogacar and you say statistics show this? Wow!)
He was closer than now but he wasn't close by any means.

He doesn't say this based on feeling, like you are, but based on numbers. He even showed you his sources.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If anything I'm mostly astounded by the continuous tactical ineptitude. Basically rolling out the carpet for Pogacar every race.

And yet it is probably the best strategy if you want to catch him on a bad day. If you are catching him on a good day, at this moment, there simply is nothing to be done, unless maybe you have teammates who are strong enough to force the issue. But waiting longer, sending Vervaeke en Lecerf up the road, really isn't going to be doing you any good in that scenario either. You would need two Van Wilders and two Van Aerts if you want to play that game, all in top shape.
However, if you catch him on a bad day, and you wait and don't really test him, chances are you will be bringing him closer to the finish unknowingly that he might have been beaten, and he can still beat you in the sprint.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Revisionism trading high right now I guess?

The "jump" by Pogacar from 24 on is incredibly overstated. The watts! Plateau de Beille. Whatever, you guys really think everybody just got sooooo much better in one year? So that the lower number Pogacar of 20-21 would be beaten by x riders from 24? Keep dreaming. Good conditions, way of riding, numbers are number, what counts is the result. And there were some impressive rides by Pogacar in 22-23 as well. He won Tirreno, Paris-Nice, Flanders, Strade Bianche, twice Lombardia, Flèche, Amstel. And no, Healy wasn't coming back, no it wasn't the car that was indeed too close for a short while that made the difference. Also "freaking" Ben Healy... yes, Remco is a stronger more accomplished rider. But well, Remco only beat freaking Ben Healy for second place in Kigali. And Pogacar only beat freaking Remco there. Not worth much this Pogi win... A bit of respect for other riders might not hurt the Remco fanboys.... I mean Healy is closer to Remco than freaking Remco is to Pogacar at this point.

The funniest part about the whole revisionism though is that now 2024 Remco is suddenly something great. Until a few months ago it was "if he hadn't crashed in the Basque country....."

As for Remco's cooking skills. He sure cooked Skjelmose in Amstel this year. He sure cooked Colbrelli at the EC a few years back. Ah well, yes. Some more cooking classes please. Couldn't drop freaking Skjelmose and freaking Colbrelli.... what a weakling.

That said, Remco's 2 LBL wins were impressive. Second more than the first for me. If Pogacar was there? a) he wasn't, so it doesn't matter, well was but crashed out once. b) Pogacar wasn't guaranteed a win. He would have started as pre-race favorite in both. Yes that weakling 20-23 would have been favorite... But a win wasn't guaranteed
And no, Pogacar wasn't guaranteed to win. He won't be in 26 either. But in retrospect, and actually at the time too. If Pogacar is there, he's the favorite. That doesn't guarantee a win. He won't have a guaranteed win in 26 either, a Remco with a normal winter will do much better than 25. Can he follow Pogacar? Not impossible. Can he beat him in a sprint? That too, not impossible. Pogacar is fast, but Remco had improved quite a bit in that, not seen it lately, he never gets to sprint for anything... But he'd become quite fast too. And at some point it will happen that Remco will beat Pogacar. And freaking Healy at some point will beat Remco... Like Skjelmose this year he might even beat both...

Anyway, let's not pretend Pogacar was somehow not the best cyclist around in 22-23, he was. He was beaten twice by Vingegaard in the Tour. That's it. A very strong Vingegaard, winning mentality you know... But Pogacar's results over the season still made him the best.

 

[peterfin]

I would rather look at things adding up and the compound on interest, rather than "statistics". Hogwash.

Sure but looking at past outcomes only without considering a realistic base level for Pogacar and how his level improved due to circumstances (UAE upgrade) set you up for surprises. That's what Bayesian statistics tells you. Check it out. If Pogacar is not that uber-Merckx level but just an outlier, one of the few basically, we will eventually know. This is still the more likely version considering his history. It's not at all about belief.

 

[Andre]

Racing smart and racing for second is not the same.

Colbrelli didn't race for second, but he knew what he needed to do to win.

Evenepoel is vain enough to pull through, control the race and make it hard. Make it as "fair" a test of strength as possible. But he is not brave enough to suck wheel. To race negatively. To be seen as calculated, cold and opportunistic. Only the bravest dare risk their image like that.

So you want more wheel suckers? Courage and Remco are synonyms.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Saying 2022 Remco was close to Pogacar in long climbs is anything but statistics (you even said they were similar in unipuerto stages. Do you think he could follow peak 2022 or 2023 Pogacar and you say statistics show this? Wow!)
He was closer than now but he wasn't close by any means.

Before i put you on ignore, let me say this: There is nobody here claiming Evenepoel would or could have beaten Pogacar in the mountains in a GT. There is nobody claiming Evenepoel was better overall in 2022 or 2023. We are talking about specific cases. First of all, Evenepoel was grossly overweight at the start of 2022, coming off a bad 2021 season, as was evident in Tirreno Adriatico where he couldn't even follow a group of 20 riders i think. He got dropped by the likes of Vlasov in Valencia, lost GC on the last day of Itzulia to Martinez. But he was gradually getting stronger and thinner. Liège was the first time since 2020 where he was both at an acceptable weight and fully injury free. He then went on to show his form on Gaustoppen but failed in Suisse due to what was believed to have been a heatstroke. He then won Classica San Sebastian with another spectacular solo, then Vuelta and Worlds, the latter again with a solo after going in the attack 70k from the finish (his solo was 26km).

At the same time, Pogacar in 2022 had won exactly how many solos? Strade against a 41 year old and the mighty Asgreen who has had 2 good days since his RVV win. I think that's about it. You can deny all you want, but back then Pogacar had not shown any of what he now shows on a weekly basis. Look back at his results from 2020 to 2023 in Liège and Lombardia. His first solo win was in Lombardia '23. A solo win by 52 seconds to Bagioli... He used to wait for the sprint because he was relatively fast in a small bunch. That's how Pog won most of his 1 day races back then. The only long solos i remember of him all came from stages in stage races, which are obviously much shorter than LBL. Less than a week before LBL22, Pog didn't even make top 10 in Fleche. The week before LBL23 he got reeled back by Healy and he was suffering from fatigue. When i say it is disingenuous to state that Evenepoel could not have beaten Pogacar in LBL22/23 i take those conditions into account. Evenepoel was already known for long solos since 2018, he was known to be able to wreck people on the flat even in his wheel. Ask Masnada, ask Campenaerts, ask De Bondt, guys who died in his wheel in 2019 when he was 19. Evenepoel did not crush the opposition those years on La Redoute, he crushed them after La Redoute by setting the pace on the flat so hard that nobody was able to stay with him after already having gone deep on La Redoute. Even if you are unwilling to agree Evenepoel would have beaten Pogacar, which is not something i have ever expected or asked, surely there is the tiniest part in your brain that is capable of being objective and agree that under those conditions, according to the level and skillset both riders showed at that time, you can also not declare that Pogacar would have certainly beaten Evenepoel. This was my only point, towards the poster who claimed that the only reason Evenepoel won LBL those years, that Evenepoel could have won even if Pog was there. Never did i claim he would have won 100% guaranteed.

But clearly it is too much for your ego as a Pog fan to muster, to think that the second best rider in the world, on certain days under those conditions might have beaten your boy, even when we all have eyes and can see and compare how back in 2022/2023 he was not close to being the rider he is today.

That's it. Now on ignore.

 

[topt]

this is top delusion again

 

[topt]

This is really the most annoying fanbase. How can such a fanbase (fortunately not all) write so many things completely away from reality. Now, we are comparing 2024 Remco to 2023 Pogacar in the Tour. Even 2024 Landa showed better numbers than 2023 Vingegaard/Pogacar in multiple stages. Does this mean Landa could beat Pogacar? 2024 was a strange year.
I'm really out, this thread is unreadable most of the time. See you on Lombardy, where we will have another show in the Serena vs Sharapova rivalry.

I think its belgian media fault

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

"The delusions run high among some of Pogs fans it seems. In 2020, Pog finished LBL in a GROUP with Mohoric, Hirschi, Roglic only 14 seconds ahead of a group with Ritchie Porte, lol. In 2021 he finished LBL in a GROUP with freaking DAVID GAUDU. My lord, and they think i'm delusional. "

What does this have to do with anything?

He was still very early in his career.

Talk about being insecure and deflecting heavily from the real conversation.

lol, it was still very early in his career? It was a year before he would supposedly have beaten Evenepoel who in reality crushed the entire peloton, while a week prior Pog couldn't even top 10 in Fleche. Thanks for chiming in though. Nice to see now the argument suddenly jumps to "but back then he wasn't as good yet" WHICH IS EXACTLY THE POINT.