Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Pozzovivo]

Because those odds are mainly based on name recognition and hype, not really on reality. Certainly this early in the season. I remember Froome had pretty decent odds for a long time when everyone who knew anything about cycling knew he wasn't going to feature at all.

Evenepoel just has this weakness in the high mountains that will be his kryptonite. I do concede that his ceiling is probably higher than Onley's... but his floor is also way lower.

No, it is the best prediction possible based on avalable information and historical record. Then it is slightly adjusted for how people place their bets. On UK only betting sites remco is still favored over Onley for Tour GC. Not because of hype or investment on Remco from Uk players. He is way better at his best and is thus accurately rated as a bigger favorite 'TO WIN than Onley. We are not trying to judge who has the best chance of ending 3-6 consistently the next five years. Peak level matters much more for winning chances.

 

[Pozzovivo]

I just checked Oddschecker, and it gives Pogačar a 75% probability, Vingegaard a 17% probability, Evenepoel 7%, and Almeida 4.1%(though, only few bookmakers list Almeida), Lipowitz 5% and Onley 3,5% etc.

So yes, Evenepoel has better odds than Onley, but in the grand scheme of things, Pogačar is such an overwhelming favourite that it does not matter much who gets 7%, 5%, or 3% probabilities.

Of course he is and it really matters once pogacar is out for whatever reason... THIS happens all the time - Pogacar is just incredibly lucky (and skilled) to avoid injuries and illnesses at the wrong time.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Yes that Tom Boonen, i never felt he would actually win something major the last couple of years of his carreer. Sure he might have gottten close a few times but Boonen at his best would have won something.

2013 Nothing major, best win Heistse Pijl
2014 Kuurne (semi-classic)
2015 Nothing major, best win Rund um Koln
2016 Brussel Cycling Classic (it got some history at least)
2017 Nothing much

Since 2014 i stopped believing in Boonen getting something. To his credit he did get close a couple of times.
He looked done to me.

 

[James M]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

He's got this year to prove himself imo. if he does not perform when nothing extra happens, than it's time to go back to the drawing board and rethink things.

 

[Berniece]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

After one single climb? Please… let’s wait until after Catalunya at least

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's likely this exact forum topic. On what really gave Remco cramps.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Its getting to the point its time to face the reality boys in terms of climbing.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Im sorry.

 

[James M]

After one single climb? Please… let’s wait until after Catalunya at least

Its year 5 or whatever its not one climb tho is it? Relative to others wheres the improvent on a general basis on these sorta efforts?

3 weeks in 2024 was an anomaly so far, dont get me wrong, thats good it shows hes capable, but it doesnt show hes a good climber on a general basis. In his position its about showing some progression. Somethings gotta give now.

He's got this year to prove himself imo. if he does not perform when nothing extra happens, than it's time to go back to the drawing board and rethink things.

Yes my take before the season aswell and not changing it now ofc but im just not holding my breath if you get me. Hes not a talent alone anymore its not enough but hope he proves us wrong. Whatever im not here to beat a dead horse if he starts showing signs then sure that would be welcomed.

 

[mikks]

Of course he is and it really matters once pogacar is out for whatever reason... THIS happens all the time - Pogacar is just incredibly lucky (and skilled) to avoid injuries and illnesses at the wrong time.

I agree, Evenepoel is a better rider than Onley and would have better chances. But my point is that if you take Pog and Vingegaard out, then the rest of the bunch is quite similar, and race becomes more open. Factors such as luck, who has a bad day and who doesn’t, who loses time in echelons, who makes a tactical mistakes and who doesn't, who is just lucky, how do team strategies change etc. who benefits from team tactics become much more prominent.

We don’t know what the racing would look like if you took Pog and Vingegaard out. Would it be basically the same—full gas from the bottom to the top? Or would it be different, more open, maybe more tactical, with more stop-and-go attacks, different attackers, and different counterattackers?

But overall, I am in your camp. I think that Evenepoel is capable of winning the Tour. But he is not a dominant rider (like Pog, Froome or Contador), where the question is not if they win the Tour, but when. Evenepoel needs the right circumstances and some luck on his side. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t.


For instance, I would say that Roglič was the best GC rider around 2019-2020—not dominant, just a little bit better than the others—but he wasted his opportunities, or maybe he just wasn’t lucky and his window of opportunity closed. Maybe Evnepoel gets his chance, maybe not.

 

[houtdffan]

Remco should stop relying on high mountains to win GC. He needs to use some of the medium mountain stages and do Jalabert 1995 raids, things he is really good at

 

[Berniece]

Its year 5 or whatever its not one climb tho is it? Relative to others wheres the improvent on a general basis on these sorta efforts?

3 weeks in 2024 was an anomaly so far, dont get me wrong, thats good it shows hes capable, but it doesnt show hes a good climber on a general basis. In his position its about showing some progression. Somethings gotta give now.

What if he wins Saturday?

 

[James M]

What if he wins Saturday?

I dont see what that changes in this particular issue at all. Different type of climb he typically excels at for his standards

 

[CyclistAbi]

What if he wins Saturday?

Stage or the overall?

 

[Berniece]

I dont see what that changes in this particular issue at all. Different type of climb he typically excels at for his standards

So he only fails at extremely steep climbs? Which we don’t see in TDF? Or what type of climb is he so bad at that he can’t compete for GT wins?

 

[Berniece]

Stage or the overall?

Stage… overall is out of the question

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Berniece

If Remco wins the stage on Saturday then what happened on Jabel Mobrah isn't all that important any more.

 

[Berniece]

@Berniece

If Remco wins the stage on Saturday then what happened on Jabel Mobrah isn't all that important any more.

Indeed

 

[CyclistAbi]

Indeed

Although the climb itself is much easier so winning the stage or being close is somewhat important for Remco. As for steeper and harder climbs, there he obviously has some work left to do.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

by the time pogi declines, sexy paul will have fully matured

He did some maturation today, fo' sho'

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

They will use anything to make him look bad. That's why they are here. They flock to this thread whenever he has a bad result.

I don't dislike Remco. I also don't dislike reality, hence my position that he will not win the Tour. Ever.

 

[Berniece]

Although the climb itself is much easier so winning the stage or being close is somewhat important for Remco. As for steeper and harder climbs, there he obviously has some work left to do.

Still 10km’s climbing at 7% though. We can compare his climbing time with others from past years

 

[kingjr]

I agree, Evenepoel is a better rider than Onley and would have better chances. But my point is that if you take Pog and Vingegaard out, then the rest of the bunch is quite similar, and race becomes more open. Factors such as luck, who has a bad day and who doesn’t, who loses time in echelons, who makes a tactical mistakes and who doesn't, who is just lucky, how do team strategies change etc. who benefits from team tactics become much more prominent.

We don’t know what the racing would look like if you took Pog and Vingegaard out. Would it be basically the same—full gas from the bottom to the top? Or would it be different, more open, maybe more tactical, with more stop-and-go attacks, different attackers, and different counterattackers?

But overall, I am in your camp. I think that Evenepoel is capable of winning the Tour. But he is not a dominant rider (like Pog, Froome or Contador), where the question is not if they win the Tour, but when. Evenepoel needs the right circumstances and some luck on his side. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t.

Neither Froome nor Contador would be winning any TdFs in the current era.