Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Red Rick]

All makes sense except the ego part, which seems silly. This race isn't really one he can win with his capabilities, why would his ego be bruised? Odd.

Is he citing "crashing, fatigue, or ego hurt"? If not, they're not "excuses". They're just speculation by fans. As far as I've heard, the team has cited "recovery", which makes sense, particularly since FW was never on his schedule.

This has a near zero chance of success in this race.

I think skipping FW is a marginal benefit at most.

If it was a race more like Brabantse Pijl and he was one of the big favorites for it, do you think he would also skip it?

 

[red_flanders]

I think skipping FW is a marginal benefit at most.

If it was a race more like Brabantse Pijl and he was one of the big favorites for it, do you think he would also skip it?

You mean if BP was on a Wednesday? No. I mean...he did skip it but obviously it's a race he likes and is basically in his back yard.

Agree it's marginal or thereabouts. Also makes sense not to race it, just lowers risk if nothing else. There are several reasons why it was never in his schedule. No real benefit and a drain on the team as well as him. But again, agree that it's not make or break either way. I just don't get why so much debate about a mid-week race which was never on his schedule.

 

[Red Rick]

You mean if BP was on a Wednesday? No. I mean...he did skip it but obviously it's a race he likes and is basically in his back yard.

Agree it's marginal or thereabouts. Also makes sense not to race it, just lowers risk if nothing else. There are several reasons why it was never in his schedule. No real benefit and a drain on the team as well as him. But again, agree that it's not make or break either way. I just don't get why so much debate about a mid-week race which was never on his schedule.

I meant a race more suited to Evenepoel but had the prestige of Fleche rather than BP.

 

[Taxus4a]

I think skipping FW is a marginal benefit at most.

If it was a race more like Brabantse Pijl and he was one of the big favorites for it, do you think he would also skip it?

Yes, this sunday is an historical race, it is the race to see if Pogacar is better than Remco for a race as Liege, the classic with more TDF winners has raced, the Doyenne.

 

[red_flanders]

I meant a race more suited to Evenepoel but had the prestige of Fleche rather than BP.

I mean...it seems fairly obvious that he'd be somewhat more likely to do a hypothetical race which had a bit more prestige and suited Remco and RBH better. But...that doesn't exist, so...🤷‍♂️

 

[AlpRaid]

Seixas looking crazy. him and Pogacar will have a field day on sunday.
Maybe Remco can get lucky and find them looking at each other.
Though the more likely scenario is them (seixas and pogacar) riding away together.

he dropped Schmidt and Cosnefoy by 3 seconds. Remco left them for 2 mins at Amstel. Different races, for sure, but I think it's a tad early to jump to conclusions.

I expect Pog to win (easily).

Remco and Seixas to be perhaps in a battle.

 

[houtdffan]

he dropped Schmidt and Cosnefoy by 3 seconds. Remco left them for 2 mins at Amstel. Different races, for sure, but I think it's a tad early to jump to conclusions.

I expect Pog to win (easily).

Remco and Seixas to be perhaps in a battle.

Think we see a repeat of last years ECRR

Pog solo
Remco solo -30s
dribs and drabs around 4 minutes

I don't see Pog and Remco waiting until Redoutte. They may go from 100K

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

Think we see a repeat of last years ECRR

Pog solo
Remco solo -30s
dribs and drabs around 4 minutes

I don't see Pog and Remco waiting until Redoutte. They may go from 100K

I see UAE as weaker than ever. Only Cosnefroy seems to be in form, and these days, before the Ardennes he's not. Right now, it's just him and Vermeersch.

I see a similar scenario as in WC and ECC. Pogacar won't have much support from his team, so either Red Bull will take the lead, or the Slovenian will have to attack before Redoutte if he wants a truly tough race.

 

[Berniece]

he dropped Schmidt and Cosnefoy by 3 seconds. Remco left them for 2 mins at Amstel. Different races, for sure, but I think it's a tad early to jump to conclusions.

I expect Pog to win (easily).

Remco and Seixas to be perhaps in a battle.

I also don’t see Seixas dropping Evenepoel based on what we have seen so far this season from both.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I also don’t see Seixas dropping Evenepoel based on what we have seen so far this season from both.

Seixas easily won:
1) After uphill murito finish (yesterday)
2) After a few hard days racing in Basque Country
3) After a long solo in Drome-Ardeche

The kiddo's victories are impressive and diverse this spring. He's not a one trick pony and can excel in various situations and on various climbs. He's a phenom and w/kg wise he's above Evenepoel now. Evenepoel should count on his engine simply being better in a long, hilly race like Liege. But I'm not 100% it's the case. How Seixas handles such a long race is to be seen but in Strade he showed no signs of crisis (this one will be harder though).

 

[Berniece]

Seixas easily won:
1) After uphill murito finish (yesterday)
2) After a few hard days racing in Basque Country
3) After a long solo in Drome-Ardeche

The kiddo's victories are impressive and diverse this spring. He's not a one trick pony and can excel in various situations and on various climbs. He's a phenom and w/kg wise he's above Evenepoel now. Evenepoel should count on his engine simply being better in a long, hilly race like Liege. But I'm not 100% it's the case. How Seixas handles such a long race is to be seen but in Strade he showed no signs of crisis (this one will be harder though).

Yes, I'm not saying none of that is true. I'm saying Evenepoel will be at a similar level in LBL.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Think we see a repeat of last years ECRR

Pog solo
Remco solo -30s
dribs and drabs around 4 minutes

I don't see Pog and Remco waiting until Redoutte. They may go from 100K

On Paper col du rosier is where Pogacar should go. But in reality it's a pretty stable/even climb if memory serves.

 

[Berniece]

On Paper col du rosier is where Pogacar should go. But in reality it's a pretty stable/even climb if memory serves.

Will probably depend a bit on his team. If UAE is still in control and can make the race hard enough there's no reason for Pogacar to launch so early. It's still 63km's from the finish.

What do you think RBH should do? I can see them put in a lot of work, even though that doesn't make sense to me. If I was them I wouldn't do anything besides keeping Evenepoel in position. Let UAE handle it.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Will probably depend a bit on his team. If UAE is still in control and can make the race hard enough there's no reason for Pogacar to launch so early. It's still 63km's from the finish.

What do you think RBH should do? I can see them put in a lot of work, even though that doesn't make sense to me. If I was them I wouldn't do anything besides keeping Evenepoel in position. Let UAE handle it.

That's UAE tactics though. Make the race as hard as possible on the hardest moment of the race.
I don't think it matters that it is still 63 km to go. Pogacar also went on Mont Kigali.

RBH should ride as the underdog that they are. It's on UAE and Decacthlon to ride/control the pace of the peloton.
RBH just needs to safeguard Remco and save energy to help in a possible chase. Make sure he's well positioned when it matters. The way the races are ridden these days I would not pinpoint a man for the breakaway. Not like they have a Van Aert in their squad. UAE will make the race hard enough for Remco's engine to shine against non-Pogacar, Non-Seixas competition anyways.

 

[Berniece]

That's UAE tactics though. Make the race as hard as possible on the hardest moment of the race.
I don't think it matters that it is still 63 km to go. Pogacar also went on Mont Kigali.

RBH should ride as the underdog that they are. It's on UAE and Decacthlon to ride/control the pace of the peloton.
RBH just needs to safeguard Remco and save energy to help in a possible chase. Make sure he's well positioned when it matters. The way the races are ridden these days I would not pinpoint a man for the breakaway. Not like they have a Van Aert in their squad. UAE will make the race hard enough for Remco's engine to shine against non-Pogacar, Non-Seixas competition anyways.

I can also see a scenario unfold like last years AGR. If UAE really isn't that strong this year, his team will be done before La Redoute. Which means Pogacar will also launch before La Redoute. Like you said, maybe already on Rosier.

If RBH is still there with 3 riders, they could first start working together with Decathlon to keep the gap small, before Evenepoel/Seixas try to make the jump. If Pogacar really is much stronger, then it doesn't matter of course.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yes, I'm not saying none of that is true. I'm saying Evenepoel will be at a similar level in LBL.

I actually voted for Evenepoel in another thread but the Messiah is kinda hard to predict due to his incredible progress.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

I can also see a scenario unfold like last years AGR. If UAE really isn't that strong this year, his team will be done before La Redoute. Which means Pogacar will also launch before La Redoute. Like you said, maybe already on Rosier.

If RBH is still there with 3 riders, they could first start working together with Decathlon to keep the gap small, before Evenepoel/Seixas try to make the jump. If Pogacar really is much stronger, then it doesn't matter of course.

Rather that teammates, i think it could simply be that remco and seixas will together not too far behind pog over la redoute. In a chase they are both the types that will ride full to catch up.

 

[peterfin]

My major doubt about Seixas is how he deals with the exhaustion of a hard 250km race. The kid is still only 19. The only reference we have is Lombardy last year where he was 7th, minutes behind Pogacar and Evenepoel. The EC was only 200 km but hard with a 90 km attack. He did great (3rd) but was minutes behind. Strade Bianchi is also just 200 km. A great result but a minute behind in an edition that was not exceptionally demanding.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

He's a phenom and w/kg wise he's above Evenepoel now.

How do you know this? Can you back up this claim?
And what exactly are you comparing in terms of lenght of the climb: 1-minute / 2-minute / 5-minute / 10-minute / 20-minute / 30-minute climbs?

 

[Berniece]

I actually voted for Evenepoel in another thread but the Messiah is kinda hard to predict due to his incredible progress.

Yeah, but then again, when you look at the profiles of LBL Evenepoel might not have a chance. He was dropped on the Paterberg... How is he going to hold on on La Redoute, Cote des Forges or the Roche aux Faucons.

Obviously they are longer which means it's a different type of effort, and they don't have cobbles, but still. I want to believe, but when you look how easily Pogacar rode away last year.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

How do you know this? Can you back up this claim?
And what exactly are you comparing in terms of lenght of the climb: 1-minute / 2-minute / 5-minute / 10-minute / 20-minute / 30-minute climbs?

Hes better now, this season. See his performances analysis in other threads, see his superiority vs rivals. In terms of standalone w/kg Seixas is great this year.

Remco can be better on Liege hills due to his endurance on hilly couses though. And I mean now, by the Tour Remco maybe will improve.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

Hes better now, this season. See his performances analysis in other threads, see his superiority vs rivals. In terms of standalone w/kg Seixas is great this year.

Remco can be better on Liege hills due to his endurance on hilly couses though. And I mean now, by the Tour Remco maybe will improve.

It's a simple question: can you back up the claim with data, or at least a thorough analisys? My feeling is in line with your claim, and I'm not trying to claim the opposite (that Remco has a higher ftp), but I'm curious / wonder what we know / what we can deduct from what we see out there. It wouldn't surprise me if Seixas is (the only one) able to follow Pog on Sunday and Remco distanced, but I wouldn't bet on either scenario (the other scenario being that Remco follows Pog, or more likely if he's better than Seixas, that he's chasing Pog and Seixas also chasing like in the EC road race).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's a simple question: can you back up the claim with data, or at least a thorough analisys? My feeling is in line with your claim, and I'm not trying to claim the opposite (that Remco has a higher ftp), but I'm curious / wonder what we know / what we can deduct from what we see out there. It wouldn't surprise me if Seixas is (the only one) able to follow Pog on Sunday and Remco distanced, but I wouldn't bet on either scenario (the other scenario being that Remco follows Pog, or more likely if he's better than Seixas, that he's chasing Pog and Seixas also chasing like in the EC road race).

It's just observations of Seixas dominant performances on climbs this year vs Remco's patchy performances on climbs plus data provided by @Peyresourde which indicates Seixas outstanding level. Remco hasn't shown a level like this in 2026 so far, nobody actually showed a higher level on medium/longer climbs than Seixas this year (but Pogacar had no performances so far). On top of that, Seixas ticks all the boxes as he's just won on a very short climb (Fleche) indicating his wide range of capabilities.

As for Remco, Liege is his type of terrain. Due to his aerodynamic efficiency (and perhaps also intristic endurance) he gets tired at a slower rate than anybody (except Pogacar) in rolling, hilly and even mountainous terrain (see Lombardy). That's why after 200-250 km of monument racing he could be better uphill than Seixas or Vingegaard for example (but with Seixas it's to be seen, not enough data points so far).

 

[Berniece]

Some pictures from his recon today. More in spoiler tag to not fill the whole page

Spoiler

 

[red_flanders]

Even on a recon… 😂