Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Prim]

for his classics campaign, he did finish 3, 1, 3

any rider not named Pog would kill to have that as their classics record

The issue though is that he seems to be on a downward trajectory with all aspects of his riding except for sprinting.

 

[Oldman]

That has been my assertion for several years: he is a professional cyclist with nearly limitless resources so why can't he 1) stay closer to his 'ideal' race weight, 2) reduce his 'ideal' race weight if needed. Using the eye test, he came into the season closer to his 'ideal' race weight this year (several reasons for that).

This race was a litmus test on his intense climbing abilities, his recovery from intense/overlimit effort and his tactical adaptibility.
He gets a f*cking A++ for tactical risk/reward and recovery skills. He got 3rd; which could have gone into his occasional capitulation and ride-in with the group. He rode like a PRO and got a serious finish result. While fans may not be satisfied; he pursued a strategy to win and still dominated the run in for the podium. That's what a stage racer would do.

 

[Extinction]

🤐

I know, wasn't expecting him to be so poor. He really has no excuses.

 

[Extinction]

This race was a litmus test on his intense climbing abilities, his recovery from intense/overlimit effort and his tactical adaptibility.
He gets a f*cking A++ for tactical risk/reward and recovery skills. He got 3rd; which could have gone into his occasional capitulation and ride-in with the group. He rode like a PRO and got a serious finish result. While fans may not be satisfied; he pursued a strategy to win and still dominated the run in for the podium. That's what a stage racer would do.

Third means nothing in a one day race. It's not tactical nous but weakness plain and simple. And he really should have spared us the "we shouldn't be surprised if Seixas falters in the last hour" crapola. Let the legs do the talking or shut up.

 

[Oldman]

Third means nothing in a one day race. It's not tactical nous but weakness plain and simple. And he really should have spared us the "we shouldn't be surprised if Seixas falters in the last hour" crapola. Let the legs do the talking or shut up.

He at least took a risk/win strategy. It wasn't a good idea in retrospect but at least he won the sprint to keep a ray of hope in Belgium's hope's for a Tour. Weeks ago he'd bail or ride in and give the media an excuse. He did his job as a pro today.

 

[Jan the Man]

He at least took a risk/win strategy. It wasn't a good idea in retrospect but at least he won the sprint to keep a ray of hope in Belgium's hope's for a Tour. Weeks ago he'd bail or ride in and give the media an excuse. He did his job as a pro today.

He showed resilience for the podium fight a big contrast to last year. I also agree his classic results have been good. The issue is performance vs expectation. Most riders would bite your hand off for his classics spring. However with the off season being uninterrupted building a good base so theoretically entering the classics as best as he could the gap between him and Pog still seems large and now Seixas comes through.

I hope i am wrong but i don’t really see where the hope comes for an appreciable improvement and jump comes tour wise. Sure he could find his 2024 level but that will probably no longer be good enough for a podium. I understand why he wants to target the Tour but after this year he needs to seriously rethink his goals, which should include Strade and MSR as well as i think a tilt at the Giro

 

[Krzysztof_O]

61.5-62kg.

You know what the dumb part is. He was weighing 59 or 60kg when he started Giro 2021. When he eventually collapsed completely after 9-10 stages? The team thinks it was because he was weighing only 59-60kg, and didn’t start to think that maybe just maybe they rushed him towards that Giro. He was just coming back from a possible career ending crash, Evenepoel himself started training too quickly, and then still rushed him towards the Giro without any racing beforehand. So now they think he has to weigh enough to be competitive instead of realising it was having no base, just like last year when he quit TDF.

It’s not like Evenepoel is actually fat, he’s lean, just lose the muscles. Train differently. And be aware that if ride LBL you are doing as much altitude meters as you would do in a mountain stage in the TDF. It all counts. The peloton is extremely fast, every hill is being drilled, we don’t ride like we did pre-corona. So lose the weight OR be happy with your current palmares because monuments, WC’s and GT’s aren’t being added anymore, which is the only thing relevant for someone with his palmares.

Too bad there's no Logic but some time ago he said Remco looked like a dock worker, not like a climber. Remco's best streak of results and best form (Tour 3rd, 2 golds at the OG) happened when he looked like a labour camp resident in the summer of 2024. Reduced body mass didn't seem to worsen his level in easier terrain or TTs but sharpened his form anytime the road went uphill.

 

[Berniece]

Too bad there's no Logic but some time ago he said Remco looked like a dock worker, not like a climber. His best streak of results (Tour 3rd, 2 gold at the OG) happened when he looked like a labour camp resident.

Yesterday he said he looked like Caleb Ewan 😂

 

[KoopaCycling]

I've been thinking, and i'm curious about the numbers. Did remco got worse or simply stagnate whereas someone like Pogacar kept improving past 3 years. Are remco climb times consistent over the years? I saw some numbers floating here yesterday about how Pogacar took a full minute of his previous climb times of years past.

Ofcourse he was off the pace. This fact won't change. But it would put things in perspective. Knowing wether he was slower than during his winning years or faster.

 

[canina82]

He showed resilience for the podium fight a big contrast to last year. I also agree his classic results have been good. The issue is performance vs expectation. Most riders would bite your hand off for his classics spring. However with the off season being uninterrupted building a good base so theoretically entering the classics as best as he could the gap between him and Pog still seems large and now Seixas comes through.

I hope i am wrong but i don’t really see where the hope comes for an appreciable improvement and jump comes tour wise. Sure he could find his 2024 level but that will probably no longer be good enough for a podium. I understand why he wants to target the Tour but after this year he needs to seriously rethink his goals, which should include Strade and MSR as well as i think a tilt at the Giro

The expectations arounf Remco are not equal with the expectations around other classics riders (not named MVP and Pogacar). For years, I have been reading in this forum how he is on par with Pogacar in the classics, how he will win the TdF in the future because he beated Roglic in the Vuelta and was 3rd in the 2024 TdF (completely ignoring he lost almost 10' to a rider from his generation).
Even 4 weeks ago, there were people here saying they couldn't imagine Pogacar dropping Remco in Kwaremont. When we actually look to reality, Remco wasn't even close to the top2 on the cobbles.
There is also all those excuses for lack of performing and this doesn't help him specially because Remco always has a big mouth before races. By his own words, he would win 2 stages + GC in UAE, he would win stages (and IIRC podium in the GC) in Catalunya, he said Seixas could struggle with the distance in LBL (making him the second favorite).
Why not face reality and say he is not the second Merckx? It's okay, target what you are good at and adjust your dreams. It's very obvious he will not win the TdF.

 

[KenFiamingo]

I've been thinking, and i'm curious about the numbers. Did remco got worse or simply stagnate whereas someone like Pogacar kept improving past 3 years. Are remco climb times consistent over the years? I saw some numbers floating here yesterday about how Pogacar took a full minute of his previous climb times of years past.

Ofcourse he was off the pace. This fact won't change. But it would put things in perspective. Knowing wether he was slower than during his winning years or faster.

Last fall he proved he was still a level above his competitors (bar Pogacar). He's nowhere near that shape now, IMO. Really makes me wonder how Remco/Red Bull went into this winter and prepared for the spring campaign.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Last fall he proved he was still a level above his competitors (bar Pogacar). He's nowhere near that shape now, IMO. Really makes me wonder how Remco/Red Bull went into this winter and prepared for the spring campaign.

I just read he was 12 sec slower than in years past. he was 39 sec behind Pogacar at end of the climb.
So in theory he should at least be 'only' around 25 sec behind at his previous best. That's still quite a gap.
But at least it confirms Remco has done better in the past on the climb. The question then becomes was he worse cause the race was faster and harder or cause he was simply worse.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Probably not a popular view, but third in Flanders, third in Liege and winning Amstel, not a bad April.

 

[Red Rick]

Probably not a popular view, but third in Flanders, third in Liege and winning Amstel, not a bad April.

Results wise it's fine if you take into account he only got beaten by MvdP and Pogacar in RVV and Pogacar also won Liege. But the way he got dropped on La Redoute has absolutely be concerning.

Part of his sales pitch for the transfer would have been that he's a rider for the future, but there's already a growing indication that his best results could be behind him if he doesn't get his *** together.

 

[Peyresourde]

I just read he was 12 sec slower than in years past. he was 39 sec behind Pogacar at end of the climb.
So in theory he should at least be 'only' around 25 sec behind at his previous best. That's still quite a gap.
But at least it confirms Remco has done better in the past on the climb. The question then becomes was he worse cause the race was faster and harder or cause he was simply worse.

Yesterday, Pogacar did 8.9 w/kg, Seixas 8.7 w/kg and Remco maybe in the range of ~7.5 w/kg on La Redoute. This is an abysmal difference and much larger than before (e.g. EC road race)

Last year in the EC on Val d'Enfer (4 minute effort) he did 8 w/kg the first time he attacked and then still did 7.7 again the ascent after the longer climb where he got dropped by Pogacar. So yesterday was clearly a bad day.


His absolute possible limit on a climb like La Redoute in peak shape on a great day would probably be around 8.2 w/kg and thus a time of ~4:05, 16 seconds back from Pogacar yesterday.

 

[Extinction]

He at least took a risk/win strategy. It wasn't a good idea in retrospect but at least he won the sprint to keep a ray of hope in Belgium's hope's for a Tour. Weeks ago he'd bail or ride in and give the media an excuse. He did his job as a pro today.

Yes, but his form is higher than last year and he still got destroyed. He won't podium in the Tour if Seixas shows up.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Results wise it's fine if you take into account he only got beaten by MvdP and Pogacar in RVV and Pogacar also won Liege. But the way he got dropped on La Redoute has absolutely be concerning.

Yes, good results looking at pure numbers but really bad performance if one's goal is to win the biggest races.

 

[peterfin]

I've been thinking, and i'm curious about the numbers. Did remco got worse or simply stagnate whereas someone like Pogacar kept improving past 3 years. Are remco climb times consistent over the years? I saw some numbers floating here yesterday about how Pogacar took a full minute of his previous climb times of years past.

Ofcourse he was off the pace. This fact won't change. But it would put things in perspective. Knowing wether he was slower than during his winning years or faster.

I've been thinking, and i'm curious about the numbers. Did remco got worse or simply stagnate whereas someone like Pogacar kept improving past 3 years. Are remco climb times consistent over the years? I saw some numbers floating here yesterday about how Pogacar took a full minute of his previous climb times of years past.

Ofcourse he was off the pace. This fact won't change. But it would put things in perspective. Knowing wether he was slower than during his winning years or faster.

The numbers tell us he got worse in climbing vs 2022 - 2024. If you account for at least some marginal gains, you would expect him to do better than his 2023 climb time on La Redoutte but he is slower while many are beating their PBs. It looks like he got significantly better in sprinting which points to a change in his mass/muscle distribution vs the past. So I have the impression he is on the wrong path. Maybe the crashes impact his progress as well but it looks like there are critical errors being made in his training. A team like RBH should have the performance team in house to measure and simulate a race to predict an outcome like today. Maybe they know but want to go in steps, giving him a higher weight this spring to have a strong base to work from but that's just a guess.

Pogacar is a different beast altogether. Even if Remco's team ticks all the boxes and could let him grow with both marginal gains and the growth that comes with age, he would never match Pogacar's insane growth. The narrative is that he is just that rider that comes along once every 50 years but that still doesn't explain his exceptional growth jump since 2024.

 

[Berniece]

Last fall he proved he was still a level above his competitors (bar Pogacar). He's nowhere near that shape now, IMO. Really makes me wonder how Remco/Red Bull went into this winter and prepared for the spring campaign.

Indeed, this is the weirdest part. Maybe they decided to train less hard and not peak too much since they raced so much? And he still wants to do TDF and even WC afterwards. Although that seems very unlikely. I don't get why he was so much better in fall last year compared to now.

 

[Red Rick]

Indeed, this is the weirdest part. Maybe they decided to train less hard and not peak too much since they raced so much? And he still wants to do TDF and even WC afterwards. Although that seems very unlikely. I don't get why he was so much better in fall last year compared to now.

Could just be overraced again. Evenepoel in great shape doesn't usually last very long. It's like 5 weeks since Catalunya? I think in the fall season he was at least well rested.

And lovers and haters are basically in full agreement calling him fat at this point

 

[Krzysztof_O]

And lovers and haters are basically in full agreement calling him fat at this point

I think he's still paying for carrying Oumi down the snowy Teide mountain. He bulked up too much. His sprint is much better now though so maybe the green jersey at the Tour should be his main goal.

 

[Berniece]

Could just be overraced again. Evenepoel in great shape doesn't usually last very long. It's like 5 weeks since Catalunya? I think in the fall season he was at least well rested.

And lovers and haters are basically in full agreement calling him fat at this point

Is 5 weeks too long? In 2022, he came back from altitude end of July and raced San Sebastian 30th of July. He won WC RR 25th of September. That's 57 days, so 8 weeks.

Maybe he is overraced, but that would be such an amateur move for someone doing his 8th season in the peloton. Like knowing you are weighing too much but still going to UAE Tour. I guess they paid a couple of 100K because why else would you do this? Starting your season very early, because you love to race and want to hit the ground running...

It's just extremely tiresome to be a fan of his. Just do what is best for results in the biggest races, or just say you aren't willing to put in the work. In this case "the work" is mental fatigue of not racing.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

Harsh view:
He is too heavy (let's not call him fat if the weight is muscles), and he is simply not ready to climb longer than 2 minutes at this level, and he never will get there even after losing weight and doing everything perfect in his prep. The tactics after the split are questionable: Denz riding is OK, but Remco also taking some half-hearted pulls already indicated he didn't have confidence following Pog (and turns out Seixas) on Redoute.

pragmatic view:
Aren't we asking too much? I.e. following an other-worldly Pog and his prince Seixas on the fastest / best ever 4-minute uphill effort with the highest ever VAM? I reckon even Vingegaard could have cracked, and Remco has never been good at these kind of efforts. So even with perfect training / some weight loss, he would still end up 10-15 seconds behind at the top and nowhere would it be guaranteed he would come back before Roche-aux-faucons (and in that case, given Pogs KOM on that climb, he wouldn't have a chance winning). He's won twice and only if some other favourites aren't showing up he'll win these races (see Amstel which fits him better anyway).

constructive / (overly?) positive view:
His results aren't bad at all. Pog is just better and if we just go by this reality, Remco is always riding for 2nd or 3rd, and that's what he achieves. Pog is better, and there are 1-2 other mutants (MvdP, Seixas) and that's what he has to deal with. He shows resilience and he shows he has a good sprint. If he trains specifically, Flanders, Amstel, MSR are all within reach, and if he chooses wisely in GT (e.g. a Giro or Vuelta without too many big names), he can still win a GT. In the Tour, the podium will be the maximum and even that will get harder.

 

[Red Rick]

Is 5 weeks too long? In 2022, he came back from altitude end of July and raced San Sebastian 30th of July. He won WC RR 25th of September. That's 57 days, so 8 weeks.

Maybe he is overraced, but that would be such an amateur move for someone doing his 8th season in the peloton. Like knowing you are weighing too much but still going to UAE Tour. I guess they paid a couple of 100K because why else would you do this? Starting your season very early, because you love to race and want to hit the ground running...

It's just extremely tiresome to be a fan of his. Just do what is best for results in the biggest races, or just say you aren't willing to put in the work. In this case "the work" is mental fatigue of not racing.

Well there was no long break after UAE, and they were already citing too much racing as a possible explanation for a poor performance in February.

I'd also think recovering from climbing races is easier if you're skinnier

 

[Berniece]

Well there was no long break after UAE, and they were already citing too much racing as a possible explanation for a poor performance in February.

I'd also think recovering from climbing races is easier if you're skinnier

Oh well, at least he won an ITT in UAE Tour, who cares he didn't win any of the 4 spring monuments