Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Ulle97]

It appears now that Remco will just not win a race with Tadej Pogacar in it. Maybe Seixas is on the trajectory of surpassing him permanently too but I still think Remco on a good day can get the better of this version of Seixas.

With that in mind, I think Remco should target some races he would have a great chance of winning. And I'm talking about World Tour races, not 1.1 races in Botswana.

Eschborn -Frankfurt has a nice profile. 2 climbs at 2km @7% gradient in the last 50km. And the last 30km are pan flat. Perfect for the Aero Bullet.

Hamburg Cyclassic- Handy enough route. No real demanding climbs. Could easily break away with an attack.

Bretagne Classic - a lumpy, up and down profile but no climb is too long. Most climbs are about 1km@ 4-5% gradient.

San Sebastian- 3 time winner. Can win it again. And Pog won't be there.

Renewi Tour or Tour of Pologne- A world tour stage race that he can win.

If he targeted these races, he could definitely clock up some good wins for the season.

His schedule the last few years has been so predictable.
Win a few TTs. Get smoked in the GTs. Finish an honourable 2nd or 3rd behind Pogacar in one day races.

I feel there will be some critics here who feel that these races I mentioned are 'below Remco'. But the stats and results don't lie.

 

[Taxus4a]

Flanders is "only" 2.000 meters of altitude. It's why MVDP has a chance there while he doesn't in LBL. So my question remains, did he bulk up and work on his explosivity? Purely for Flanders? With the idea that he could ride better over the cobbles and win a sprint there. Because they must be aware that this would be a disaster at LBL with +4.000 meters of altitude.

I dont think so. No sure. He explained once he has to be carefull with food becouse he tends to get weight. I think he would like to be always lighter, butbfor classic no so big problemas.
For Liege anyway is a big problem

 

[Taxus4a]

Yesterday, Pogacar did 8.9 w/kg, Seixas 8.7 w/kg and Remco maybe in the range of ~7.5 w/kg on La Redoute. This is an abysmal difference and much larger than before (e.g. EC road race)

Last year in the EC on Val d'Enfer (4 minute effort) he did 8 w/kg the first time he attacked and then still did 7.7 again the ascent after the longer climb where he got dropped by Pogacar. So yesterday was clearly a bad day.


His absolute possible limit on a climb like La Redoute in peak shape on a great day would probably be around 8.2 w/kg and thus a time of ~4:05, 16 seconds back from Pogacar yesterday.

If Remco finish 16 seconds behind of Pogacar la Redoute and there is just a right between them. Remco has his chances still. But if Remco make a group with Ayuso and Pidcock, and they collaborate well, and Pogacar is alone, Pogacar will be caughted. But if he is at 30 seconds there is no way., of course.
Anyway I am realístic after yesterday and quite pesimistic to se Remco win the best in the spring. Maybe at San Remo

 

[Taxus4a]

It appears now that Remco will just not win a race with Tadej Pogacar in it. Maybe Seixas is on the trajectory of surpassing him permanently too but I still think Remco on a good day can get the better of this version of Seixas.

With that in mind, I think Remco should target some races he would have a great chance of winning. And I'm talking about World Tour races, not 1.1 races in Botswana.

Eschborn -Frankfurt has a nice profile. 2 climbs at 2km @7% gradient in the last 50km. And the last 30km are pan flat. Perfect for the Aero Bullet.

Hamburg Cyclassic- Handy enough route. No real demanding climbs. Could easily break away with an attack.

Bretagne Classic - a lumpy, up and down profile but no climb is too long. Most climbs are about 1km@ 4-5% gradient.

San Sebastian- 3 time winner. Can win it again. And Pog won't be there.

Renewi Tour or Tour of Pologne- A world tour stage race that he can win.

If he targeted these races, he could definitely clock up some good wins for the season.

His schedule the last few years has been so predictable.
Win a few TTs. Get smoked in the GTs. Finish an honourable 2nd or 3rd behind Pogacar in one day races.

I feel there will be some critics here who feel that these races I mentioned are 'below Remco'. But the stats and results don't lie.

Yes, but he is a World and Olimpic route champion, 2 times Liege winner and his mortivation is to beat the best.

 

[vappa]

It appears now that Remco will just not win a race with Tadej Pogacar in it. Maybe Seixas is on the trajectory of surpassing him permanently too but I still think Remco on a good day can get the better of this version of Seixas.

With that in mind, I think Remco should target some races he would have a great chance of winning. And I'm talking about World Tour races, not 1.1 races in Botswana.

Eschborn -Frankfurt has a nice profile. 2 climbs at 2km @7% gradient in the last 50km. And the last 30km are pan flat. Perfect for the Aero Bullet.

Hamburg Cyclassic- Handy enough route. No real demanding climbs. Could easily break away with an attack.

Bretagne Classic - a lumpy, up and down profile but no climb is too long. Most climbs are about 1km@ 4-5% gradient.

San Sebastian- 3 time winner. Can win it again. And Pog won't be there.

Renewi Tour or Tour of Pologne- A world tour stage race that he can win.

If he targeted these races, he could definitely clock up some good wins for the season.

His schedule the last few years has been so predictable.
Win a few TTs. Get smoked in the GTs. Finish an honourable 2nd or 3rd behind Pogacar in one day races.

I feel there will be some critics here who feel that these races I mentioned are 'below Remco'. But the stats and results don't lie.

I mean, Red Bull just spent a fortune and expected a future TdF and monument winner. If he goes from expectations to THAT, it's a massive disappointment. Next year he has to start the year at 61/62 kgs and see what happens. If he's still uncompetitive for the big ones, bulk up and win minor races and TTs

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

What maybe bothers me the most, is his entourage:
He has Klaas Lodewijck and Sven Vanthourenhout.

I see Klaas Lodewijck as a useful idiot (in a positive sense), i.e. a very loyal server that can be positive for Remco if he serves as his personal driver / butler / company / extra pair of eyes to check if Remco isn't secretly eating pizza during training camps. But the guy is in charge of race tactics for (fill in expletive) sake.

Same goes for Sven Vanthourenhout who has just a tiny bit more attention / talent for scientific progression in terms of material, food,... but is tactically almost as inept as Lodewijck.
He was just lucky to be a national coach while having massive talent in the team (WvA, Remco) between 2017-2024 but has more than once single-handedly destroyed the team's chances during certain world championships like 2021. He still got rewarded for that by Bora.

 

[houtdffan]

I'm sorry but if you peak for Catalunya while you're (at least) a top 3 favourite for LBL you deserve to underperform there. So it shouldn't be that, but maybe it is

he was peaking for Flanders

 

[Ulle97]

Yes, but he is a World and Olimpic route champion, 2 times Liege winner and his mortivation is to beat the best.

His 2 Liege wins and ORR were achieved without Pogacar being present or crashing out.

 

[Taxus4a]

His 2 Liege wins and ORR were achieved without Pogacar being present or crashing out.

Yes, but you understand his motivation should be that. He should combine both of them l.
But if he ride Liege with 3 plus kilos, he shouldnt create expectations to win if Pogacar os Seixas are there.

 

[Gratemans]

What always strikes me is how different this thread is compared to other dedicated rider threads. It's full of speculations about why he doesn't perform better. Weight, tactics, training, when he peaks.. it goes on and on.

But I'm pretty convinced by now this is just it. This is his ceiling. He'll never beat Pog again in a classic. And purely looking at his results, he even had a pretty succesful classics season. You can only call it unsuccessful if you expected more. I for one certainly didn't.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

What always strikes me is how different this thread is compared to other dedicated rider threads. It's full of speculations about why he doesn't perform better. Weight, tactics, training, when he peaks.. it goes on and on.

But I'm pretty convinced by now this is just it. This is his ceiling. He'll never beat Pog again in a classic. And purely looking at his results, he even had a pretty succesful classics season. You can only call it unsuccessful if you expected more. I for one certainly didn't.

There is absolutely no way he could have done better than 3rd, in this race. Even with perfect weight he wouldn't go under 4:00 on Redoute and thus be dropped, have a 15 second gap and without any chance to come back.

That's for me a done deal.

The thing is, he wasn't at his ceiling. He either wasted energy in the first half of the race and/or his weight is not optimal, but his time on Redoute was poor even by his standards. So yes, he can do better, but no, it would still not be enough.

We cannot expect much more in terms of result, but the low-hanging fruit (race weight / tactics), i.e. the prep. and execution are both still poor, due to no one in his entourage putting him on a scale daily and / or his entourage still consisting of yes-mans.

 

[Gratemans]

There is absolutely no way he could have done better than 3rd, in this race. Even with perfect weight he wouldn't go under 4:00 on Redoute and thus be dropped, have a 15 second gap and without any chance to come back.

That's for me a done deal.

The thing is, he wasn't at his ceiling. He either wasted energy in the first half of the race and/or his weight is not optimal, but his time on Redoute was poor even by his standards. So yes, he can do better, but no, it would still not be enough.

We cannot expect much more in terms of result, but the low-hanging fruit (race weight / tactics), i.e. the prep. and execution are both still poor, due to no one in his entourage putting him on a scale daily and / or his entourage still consisting of yes-mans.

Well if that's true (and ok, it might be) he must be the most mismanaged and least self reflective rider I've seen the past few decades. I mean, the dude is 26. They should've figured it out by now.

 

[vappa]

he was peaking for Flanders

To do what? Podium? As opposed to peaking for LBL where he would at least in theory have some chance for the win

 

[AmRacer]

Yes, but you understand his motivation should be that. He should combine both of them l.
But if he ride Liege with 3 plus kilos, he shouldnt create expectations to win if Pogacar os Seixas are there.

Do you think Pogi lost weight after P-R?

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

Do you think Pogi lost weight after P-R?

Pogi is Pogi. He can win on a unicycle with Urska on his back.

 

[Taxus4a]

Do you think Pogi lost weight after P-R?

Surely, but not time for too much. all Riders has more weight for clasic than for Le Tour. But Pogacar is more similar all the year, and Remco has to lose more kilos.