The Rohan Dennis thread

[Red Rick]

Dennis is peaking for the Olympics and Worlds, and signed a contract super late so he'll be no way close to great form right now.

 

[yaco]

Different ITT course this year so its hard to make an effective assessment. Know that when Durbridge won in 2019, his winning time was quicker in two of the three previous years when Dennis won. I suspect Durbridge is hot in January.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Nearly a four minute difference between them compared to the WCC.

 

[42x16ss]

Different ITT course this year so its hard to make an effective assessment. Know that when Durbridge won in 2019, his winning time was quicker in two of the three previous years when Dennis won. I suspect Durbridge is hot in January.

This. Durbridge is racing Paris Nice and the classics as a protected rider, so he should be slightly better right now.

 

[42x16ss]

Is Dennis still "too light"for TT'ing after his struggle with the weight?

He could still do well in the week-long races with Ineos by his side. I could see him podium Down Under and even Tirreno-Adriatico which has a fairly easy MTF.

What do you say to the 7 or 8 other stage racers in the team?

 

[Velolover2]

What do you say to the 7 or 8 other stage racers in the team?

I had a dream that Dennis defend the pink jersey all the way to Milan after winning the first time trial. Being surprisingly good on the climbs after joining INEOS.

While such a prophecy is very unlikely, I think he will surprise most people in the week-long races. It looks like he is in fine shape. A little lighter and less muscular, but it is useful on the longer climbs.

I'd like to see him race UAE and T-A for a top result. He could also do well in Strade Bianche perhaps.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Different ITT course this year so its hard to make an effective assessment. Know that when Durbridge won in 2019, his winning time was quicker in two of the three previous years when Dennis won. I suspect Durbridge is hot in January.

Yeah, always is. Dennis is aiming to win TDU again, though, so he has to be near his best - if that is indeed the case. Maybe he just needs some racing miles to get going.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, always is. Dennis is aiming to win TDU again, though, so he has to be near his best - if that is indeed the case. Maybe he just needs some racing miles to get going.

Think he would just need to be in better shape compared to the rest of the field. That shouldn't really mean peaking

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Think he would just need to be in better shape compared to the rest of the field. That shouldn't really mean peaking

Impey definitely peaked for this race, from what I've read in the past. Porte seemingly did, too.

Not saying Dennis can't beat those guys unless he's at 100.00%, but he can't be too far off. The form he had last year probably won't cut it.

 

[Red Rick]

Impey definitely peaked for this race, from what I've read in the past. Porte seemingly did, too.

Not saying Dennis can't beat those guys if he's not at 100.00%, but he can't be too far off. The form he had last year probably won't cut it.

Think Porte Porting Down under is half the reason he burns out by the time he hits the GTs.

 

[yaco]

This year's profile is similar to when Dennis won in 2015 - Can win if he has shape.

 

[Salvarani]

Think Porte Porting Down under is half the reason he burns out by the time he hits the GTs.

Since he mostly been focusing on the Tour.

2015. Riding for Froome, who crashed out.
2016: 5th. First year at BMC. Which is not a bad result at all.
2017: Crash. When he was in 5th place, 40 seconds behind.
2018: Crash. Was in the mix. GC not really established to say anything about it. He was there with everybody else, almost on the same second.

2019. Not in the best form. Showing signs of a decline. He will be 35 in just a couple of weeks, this year. Which should be pretty natural, after many years at the top. Maybe feeling it himself, that his best years are behind him.

So, I dont know if that is correct. To even say that he "burns out" because of early form and that is a reason for poor results in the GTs. It is crashes (maybe he is not that good at positioning himself or the best bike handler) and bad luck.

In 2017. He won TDU. Then was 11th in P-N. Won Romandie. 2nd Dauphine. After being tactically outplayed on the last stage. Showing great form going into the GT. To me that just looks like great preparation and having a great year. Often the winner of Dauphine/Suisse has also won the Tour. Thats nothing strange. So saying "burning out" would be the reason it then failed in the GT, doesnt hold up to me. Because it was a crash.

2018. After once again, a pretty good TDU. Algarve 27th. DNF Itzulia. 3rd Romandie. Won Suisse. Crash TDF. Poor Vuelta, but he was coming back from injuries suffered in the Tour.

I just think that he is motivated at his home race, knows the roads and that hill better than anyone. Comfortable in the heat. Not that he is in the greatest of form and that is the reason he "burns out" later and has failed the GTs, which is a claim I dont think really has a leg to stand on. He has simply crashed out of them.

 

[Red Rick]

Since he mostly been focusing on the Tour.

2015. Riding for Froome, who crashed out.
2016: 5th. First year at BMC. Which is not a bad result at all.
2017: Crash. When he was in 5th place, 40 seconds behind.
2018: Crash. Was in the mix. GC not really established to say anything about it. He was there with everybody else, almost on the same second.

2019. Not in the best form. Showing signs of a decline. He will be 35 in just a couple of weeks, this year. Which should be pretty natural, after many years at the top. Maybe feeling it himself, that his best years are behind him.

So, I dont know if that is correct. To even say that he "burns out" because of early form and that is a reason for poor results in the GTs. It is crashes (maybe he is not that good at positioning himself or the best bike handler) and bad luck.

In 2017. He won TDU. Then was 11th in P-N. Won Romandie. 2nd Dauphine. After being tactically outplayed on the last stage. Showing great form going into the GT. To me that just looks like great preparation and having a great year. Often the winner of Dauphine/Suisse has also won the Tour. Thats nothing strange. So saying "burning out" would be the reason it then failed in the GT, doesnt hold up to me. Because it was a crash.

2018. After once again, a pretty good TDU. Algarve 27th. DNF Itzulia. 3rd Romandie. Won Suisse. Crash TDF. Poor Vuelta, but he was coming back from injuries suffered in the Tour.

I just think that he is motivated at his home race, knows the roads and that hill better than anyone. Comfortable in the heat. Not that he is in the greatest of form and that is the reason he "burns out" later and has failed the GTs, which is a claim I dont think really has a leg to stand on. He has simply crashed out of them.

Even if you take into account bad luck and crashes, Porte's results in GTs have been far, far worse than his shorter stage race pedigree suggests he should get.

 

[christopherrowe]

Even if you take into account bad luck and crashes, Porte's results in GTs have been far, far worse than his shorter stage race pedigree suggests he should get.

It would be interesting to see a statistical breakdown of how podium finishers in the various one week stage races have fared in same-year Grand Tours.

 

[Salvarani]

Even if you take into account bad luck and crashes, Porte's results in GTs have been far, far worse than his shorter stage race pedigree suggests he should get.

Of course.

But it is not because of being ”burned out”, because of early racing in TDU. He has looked pretty good in every GT he has crashed out from. We will never know what he could have done in a 2nd or 3rd week in his peak.

 

[yaco]

2016 was the missed chance for Porte - Late mechanical while team was supporting the NON- TDF winner GVA for the final ( GVA has won one stage in the TDF ) cost him around 45 seconds - Should have been on the on the podium.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Dennis schedule for 2020 looks rather good. Going to Giro and to focus on time trials, not GC. Preparing good for the Olympics and Worlds.

Feels like he could win a lot in season 2020.

 

[42x16ss]

2016 was the missed chance for Porte - Late mechanical while team was supporting the NON- TDF winner GVA for the final ( GVA has won one stage in the TDF ) cost him around 45 seconds - Should have been on the on the podium.

Porte's bad day in the TT is what did it.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

2016 was the missed chance for Porte - Late mechanical while team was supporting the NON- TDF winner GVA for the final ( GVA has won one stage in the TDF ) cost him around 45 seconds - Should have been on the on the podium.

So when did Porte win the TDF? I mean, unlike the NON-TDF winner GVA?
Or when did Porte win a stage in the TDF? Unlike the multiple TDF stage winner GVA?

 

[yaco]

So when did Porte win the TDF? I mean, unlike the NON-TDF winner GVA?
Or when did Porte win a stage in the TDF? Unlike the multiple TDF stage winner GVA?

What is the relevance of your post - We are discussing Porte's performances at the TDF -2016 was the missed opportunity when he had the mechanical in stage three or 4 - It cost him a podium - Otherwise he's never been near it at the TDF when chasing GC - The only relevance to your post is that GVA is a serial non-winner at GT's considering the resources thrown behind him - Maybe compare him to Gilbert who knows how to win GT stages.

 

[42x16ss]

GVA has 2 TDF stage wins, a Vuelta stage win and points classification

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What is the relevance of your post - We are discussing Porte's performances at the TDF -2016 was the missed opportunity when he had the mechanical in stage three or 4 - It cost him a podium - Otherwise he's never been near it at the TDF when chasing GC - The only relevance to your post is that GVA is a serial non-winner at GT's considering the resources thrown behind him - Maybe compare him to Gilbert who knows how to win GT stages.

The relevance is that you are trying to belittle Van Avermaet or lie about his achievements, in order to make it look like supporting him was some sort of blasphemy, while everything should have been done to secure the one true God Richie Porte's assumed podium spot which nobody could predict at that time. As if Porte was a proven GT GC rider to begin with.

While i'm not saying Porte shouldn't have been a protected rider or shouldn't have been better supported by the team, acting as if Van Avermaet is to blame, or as if Van Avermaet didn't warrant team support is laughable at best. Especially in 2016.

Furthermore, the mechanical you speak of, happened in stage 5, which Van Avermaet actually won, and the team had no way of predicting the mechanical, nor the rest of the GC battle. A lot can happen and most riders lose time here or there. Not to mention the fact that other riders will adapt to circumstances. In other words, not having had the mechanical would not have been a guarantee that he would have stayed ahead of the riders that ended up in front of him. Maybe it would have, maybe not. But you can't say that for sure since the dynamics of a race simply change.

 

[yaco]

GVA has 2 TDF stage wins, a Vuelta stage win and points classification

GVA gets lots of protection in GT's so that is hardly a glittering palmares - Gilbert has 11 stage victories in GT's.

 

[yaco]

The relevance is that you are trying to belittle Van Avermaet or lie about his achievements, in order to make it look like supporting him was some sort of blasphemy, while everything should have been done to secure the one true God Richie Porte's assumed podium spot which nobody could predict at that time. As if Porte was a proven GT GC rider to begin with.

While i'm not saying Porte shouldn't have been a protected rider or shouldn't have been better supported by the team, acting as if Van Avermaet is to blame, or as if Van Avermaet didn't warrant team support is laughable at best. Especially in 2016.

Furthermore, the mechanical you speak of, happened in stage 5, which Van Avermaet actually won, and the team had no way of predicting the mechanical, nor the rest of the GC battle. A lot can happen and most riders lose time here or there. Not to mention the fact that other riders will adapt to circumstances. In other words, not having had the mechanical would not have been a guarantee that he would have stayed ahead of the riders that ended up in front of him. Maybe it would have, maybe not. But you can't say that for sure since the dynamics of a race simply change.

I have raised two points in my arguments - One is that Porte's best ever performance riding for GC at the TDF was 2016 in which the late mechanical along with limited team support at the point probably cost him a podium - Have posted numerous times that Porte is over-rated, idolised by the Aussie cycling mafia and that if all things went right could get a podium at a GT as his best possible result - The point is about GVA is that he has a limited palmares at GT's for the amount of team support he receives, compared to Gilbert who has won 11 GT stages.

I will pose a question - Trentin and GVA will both be protected riders at the TDF ? Who is more likely to win a stage.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The point is about GVA is that he has a limited palmares at GT's for the amount of team support he receives, compared to Gilbert who has won 11 GT stages.

While that may be true, you know as well as i do, that Vuelta stage wins do not compare to TDF stage wins. So, nice try there ;-)
I'm not saying Van Avermaet shouldn't have been more successful, but i think he also wore the yellow jersey a lot more than Porte, (the GC guy) did. And especially in 2016, your argument falls flat. While he may be an underachiever in some ways, he also races throughout the entire season and has given his team a lot of exposure (which is what the team needs).

And my point was that stage 5 of a TDF in 2016, while Porte has proven zero shits as a GC rider while Van Avermaet was in his best ever form, you don't have to make such a fuss about the team protecting their star rider (whether you like to hear it or not) who ended up winning the god damn stage. But as far as the team goas, i agree, it should have done better to prevent such time loss for their GC rider.

I will pose a question - Trentin and GVA will both be protected riders at the TDF ? Who is more likely to win a stage.

Since Trentin is the better finisher and 4 years younger, chances are it's Trentin. But what does that have to do with anything?