Third candidate for the Tour de France

[Cycling111]

With these first preseason races, who gives the best feeling for the Tour de France podium?

The question is for third place. Last year Vingegaard's gap over third place was very wide, and barring
Vingegaard's enormous decline, I think it's an insurmountable gap for now.

I'm not including Almeida because he's not going, but for me he´d be a better candidate for the podium than the rest except Lipowitz and if Remco manages to emulate what he did in 2024.

The first three in the Algarve were quite evenly matched, except for the time trial where Almeida performed poorly.
Looking ahead to the Tour, I think Almeida would be superior in GT mountains; this course didn't suit him as well, and he performed similarly to Ayuso and Seixas.

Seixas seems to handle tough stages. Last year at the European Championships, a race even harder than today's stage, his performance was superior to Ayuso's. He appears to be a rider unaffected by the conditions, unlike Ayuso and Del Toro.
Del Toro seems something better than Ayuso for theses one-week races. I'd like to see him in Paris-Nice to compare his level with Ayuso because I think he'll win Tirreno-Adriatico easily.

But in the Tour de France mountains, I'm betting on Lipowitz.
I think Lipowitz is like Vingegaard in his early Tours. He doesn't stand out in these early-season races, but he'll be at his best in the Tour. Last year his best races were Dauphiné and Tour, and this year he'll be at his best shape during those months. Without Almeida and with Remco's climb level uncertain, I bet he'll repeat third position.

 

[AmRacer]

I put everything on Pidcock.

 

[Cycling111]

I put everything on Pidcock.

This year's Tour route is very easy, but I think Pidcock is a rider for the mountais of the Vuelta. He's going to struggle on the longer climbs. The route is easy, but there are two very tough stages, and the pace Pogacar will set is nothing like the leisurely ride they had in last year's Vuelta.

 

[Gratemans]

I'd say Del Toro or Lipowitz. Seixas definitely has the potential to be up there, but not yet this year I feel. I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.

 

[Cycling111]

@Gratemans
Yes, Seixas is so young that he'll probably will collapse in three weeks' effort. Although, given this route, I'm giving him a better chance than in previous years that he won't collapse.

I think Del Toro will arrive with enormous hype because he´ll win Tirreno-Adriatico and Fleche Wallonne easy, but I need to see him in the tough mountain stage.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lipowitz did what Vingegaard did in 2022 and made a double leap in performance. One compared to the previous Tour and another compared to the rest of the season.
Since the last Tour, I've been thinking that he's the German Vingegaard.