Thwarting the Sprinters

[Geraint Too Fast]

Is it just me, or have flat stages become a bit more unpredictable recently?
Taylor Phinney started it off with asolo victory in the Tour de Pologne on the last day of July. Following that, Greg Van Avermaet attacked inside the last kilometre to win the first stage of the Tour of Utah and Alexander Serov followed suit in Portugal a couple of days later. The first half of the Eneco Tour was set up to be a sprint-fest, but Mark Renshaw spoiled the party on stage 1, and Zdenek Stybar did the same on stage 3. Tony Martin was a few metres away from snatching victory on a flat stage of the Vuelta yesterday, before Stybar (again) managed to pull it off today, as did Jelle Wallays in the World Ports Classic.

So what's behind this? Is it a new trend or just coincidence? Or has it always been like this and I'm just noticing now?

 

[hiero2]

Well - if ya look at Cancellara's history, you see the long attack. It does seem to be a good year for it, though. Can't say I'm counting for statistical analysis, though.

 

[Afrank]

Some cases it has to do with the weak sprinter fields (at the Vuelta for example), it's easier to ride away form such fields. And I'd say another factor is the time in the season. It's near the end, so people are getting tired.

 

[ElChingon]

Some cases it has to do with the weak sprinter fields (at the Vuelta for example), it's easier to ride away form such fields. And I'd say another factor is the time in the season. It's near the end, so people are getting tired.

This ^^^^

There are more class B rated sprinters at this race than all the other races during July that are not le Tour.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

From CG's victory rankings this year:

1. SVK SAGAN Peter CAN 26/01/1990 18
2. GBR CAVENDISH Mark OPQ 21/05/1985 16
3. GER KITTEL Marcel ARG 11/05/1988 15
4. GBR FROOME Chris SKY 20/05/1985 13
5. GER GREIPEL André LTB 16/07/1982 12
6. GER MARTIN Tony OPQ 23/04/1985 10
7. AUT ZOIDL Riccardo GMS 08/04/1988 10
8. ITA MODOLO Sacha BAR 19/06/1987 8
9. IRI MIZBANI IRANAGH Ghader TPT 06/12/1975 8
10. FRA DEMARE Arnaud FDJ 26/08/1991 8
11. NOR HUSHOVD Thor BMC 18/01/1978 8
12. UKR BUTS Vitaliy KLS 24/10/1986 8
13. FRA BOUHANNI Nacer FDJ 25/07/1990 7
14. AUS EWAN Caleb - 11/07/1994 7
15. POR COSTA Rui Alberto Faria MOV 05/10/1986 7
16. FRA COQUARD Bryan EUC 25/04/1992 6
17. NOR KRISTOFF Alexander KAT 05/07/1987 6
18. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOV 04/02/1990 6
19. UKR POPKOV Vitaliy ISD 16/06/1983 6
20. NED VAN BAARLE Dylan RB3 21/05/1992 6

Looks like a great deal of bunch sprints win to me.

 

[dicanio_michael]

Is it just me, or have flat stages become a bit more unpredictable recently?
Taylor Phinney started it off with asolo victory in the Tour de Pologne on the last day of July. Following that, Greg Van Avermaet attacked inside the last kilometre to win the first stage of the Tour of Utah and Alexander Serov followed suit in Portugal a couple of days later. The first half of the Eneco Tour was set up to be a sprint-fest, but Mark Renshaw spoiled the party on stage 1, and Zdenek Stybar did the same on stage 3. Tony Martin was a few metres away from snatching victory on a flat stage of the Vuelta yesterday, before Stybar (again) managed to pull it off today, as did Jelle Wallays in the World Ports Classic.

So what's behind this? Is it a new trend or just coincidence? Or has it always been like this and I'm just noticing now?

I just know in all these cases, OPQS was not leading the peleton in the final kms except the World Ports Classic where there were chaos.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yea, the big factor is weak sprinting fields. Places like Utah don't have much reason for bunch sprinters to show up, Vuelta routes like this don't offer them many opportunities (even removing their chance to wear red for a day or two near the start) especially in front of a hilly Worlds (if this same Vuelta route came before Copenhagen you'd have seen a stronger sprinting field). Portugal always has a stage or two where the sprint gets foiled due to either a technical run-in or the break being given a bit more leeway than it needs.

 

[maltiv]

Is it just me, or have flat stages become a bit more unpredictable recently?
Taylor Phinney started it off with asolo victory in the Tour de Pologne on the last day of July. Following that, Greg Van Avermaet attacked inside the last kilometre to win the first stage of the Tour of Utah and Alexander Serov followed suit in Portugal a couple of days later. The first half of the Eneco Tour was set up to be a sprint-fest, but Mark Renshaw spoiled the party on stage 1, and Zdenek Stybar did the same on stage 3. Tony Martin was a few metres away from snatching victory on a flat stage of the Vuelta yesterday, before Stybar (again) managed to pull it off today, as did Jelle Wallays in the World Ports Classic.

So what's behind this? Is it a new trend or just coincidence? Or has it always been like this and I'm just noticing now?

Indeed, it's pretty remarkable how many of these attacks have held off. Earlier I would just write off any attack in the last kilometers of a sprint stage (unless Cancellara was involved), but nowadays almost every attack seems to stick...

 

[Broth3r]

I absolutely love this trend. You know, attacks being rewarded with wins, riders winning stages by riding a bike and not a train, etc. I am afraid the weak sprinter fields have been a major part of it.

That said, and I know I'm just being hopeful here, I would love this trend to evolve into a mainstay of cycling. Of course, that would involve changing established paradigms. For example, see today's Vuelta finish. Narrow, winding and hilly roads. Tons of riders complaining about it being dangerous and not fit for an amateur race. Me, I think we need to see more of those. These sort of finishes level the field between escapees and trains - whereas your everyday one-KM-wide and ten KM long boulevards only serve to give said trains an even more obnoxious advantage.

Safety is only an issue if, again, they stubbornly refuse the paradigm change. How often do you see escapees crash on those roads? If the road isn't twelve men wide, then don't stack up as such.

Technique and guts need to be rewarded above raw strength in numbers.

 

[murali]

this is a question that i had asked in another thread regarding best sprinters/sprint methods; and people were telling me that the sprint train is a relatively new phenomenon.

Having said that; statistically the bunch sprinter's chances haven't dropped down significantly. Stybar doing it twice must be an anomaly in statistics.

A lot depends on the number of strong teams in the races. For example, a determined OPQS is expected to bring back any sort of break on a flat stage. I have great respect for lotto and argos teams. Having said that, in many of the victories pointed out, either the field was showing lack of leadership to bring down the break, or the guy in front was just too much for the field.

TM was underestimated. Renshaw's attack was unexpected, and the number of turns in the final segment meant that renshaw's normal leadout speed was sufficient to drop the field. phinney had all the factors going with him. the gilbert-stybar duo utilized sheer skills to outmaneuver a weak field(without OPQS pulling, they were never going to catch them) and they didn't squabble.

What i truly miss this season is the expected victory by Voeckler.

 

[Broth3r]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oI4QfcW7qnY

 

[murali]

vino doesn't count. he is in a league of his own. nice to remind me that win though

 

[brilleaben]

Tjallingii adds another one to the list.

 

[murali]

both stages were won by non-sprinters

 

[Echoes]

Those who've watched cycling before 97/98 know that this is a sign that cycling is getting back to 'normal' now. Damn again a clinic talk but it's impossible not to link the two...

A bit like the non sprint in Sanremo


In the late eighties/early nineties you had the mighty Jelle Nijdam, the kilometre flyer. He epitomized the genre. After him Ekimov in his Panasonic years and then it was all over.

Tchmil could still win a stage in the Three Days of De Panne that way but that was it.


Before Nijdam you had Willy Teirlinck or Franco Bitossi that I've never seen.

 

[Netserk]

How is cycling from 93-98 'normal'?