Tinkoff want Froome, Nibali & Quintana at Giro

[Cimber]

The opponents are way tougher than in 2011. Contador is not even considered a top Tour favorite without doing the Giro. The chance of making a double is minimal, objectively speaking.

Are you drunk? Yes doing the Giro means he most likely wont win the Tour. But had he skipped the Giro and prepared for the Tour like this year he would be the top favorite together with Froome.

 

[Netbalp]

Are you drunk? Yes doing the Giro means he most likely wont win the Tour. But had he skipped the Giro and prepared for the Tour like this year he would be the top favorite together with Froome.

One of top favorites sure. Someone just wrote the fact that Froome, Nibali and Quintana skip the Giro increases chance of making the double. Sounds pretty comical.

 

[SeriousSam]

One of top favorites sure. Someone just wrote the fact that Froome, Nibali and Quintana skip the Giro increases chance of making the double. Sounds pretty comical.

If they skip the Giro, Contador is the overwhelming favourite to win the Giro, although winning the Tour will be less likely. Overall, I would say the chances for the double go up.

Anyway, I've been monitoring the bookies for TdF 2015 for some time and was surprised they haven't yet adjusted Contodor's odds in light of his announcement that he will do the Giro. I guess this far out they can afford to give customers horrible prices.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

One of top favorites sure. Someone just wrote the fact that Froome, Nibali and Quintana skip the Giro increases chance of making the double. Sounds pretty comical.

Who does he have to beat at the Giro, though. Aru and König? Not quite there yet. Purito is done. There's no need for him to be in great shape unless one of the other big four shows up.

I don't think the Giro will take too much out of him if a few conditions are met.

 

[Netbalp]

If they skip the Giro, Contador is the overwhelming favourite to win the Giro, although winning the Tour will be less likely. Overall, I would say the chances for the double go up.

Anyway, I've been monitoring the bookies for TdF 2015 for some time and was surprised they haven't yet adjusted Contodor's odds in light of his announcement that he will do the Giro. I guess this far out they can afford to give customers horrible prices.

AC has successful experience of going 2 GTs in one season and probably some advantage of long-term recovery over the rest boys, so in case all of 4 could've turned up in Italy in theory, that would raise his chance of the double.
In point of fact, participation in the Giro nullifies chance of winning the Tour if we have a talk about realistic screenplays.

I don't think the Giro will take too much out of him if a few conditions are met.

The Giro failed to require extreme effort in 2011 too, however 3 weeks of racing themselves exhaust heavily regardless of resistance opponents can offer. Now that's much tighter than in 2011. Contador won't be weaker, there are no two ways about, but this new field is principally stronger than the Schlecks and Evans.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Who does he have to beat at the Giro, though. Aru and König? Not quite there yet. Purito is done. There's no need for him to be in great shape unless one of the other big four shows up.

I don't think the Giro will take too much out of him if a few conditions are met.

I think Aru will provide a good challenge and certainly push him harder than he'd like. Of course I still expect Alberto to win though but it won't be easy, particularly if weather is again bad in Italy during May.

 

[SeriousSam]

In point of fact, participation in the Giro nullifies chance of winning the Tour if we have a talk about realistic screenplays.

Nah, his chances of winning the 2014 Tour after winning the Giro will still be better than Nibali's were at the start of the 2014 edition. Unlikely events do occur occasionally.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The Giro failed to require extreme effort in 2011 too, however 3 weeks of racing themselves exhaust heavily regardless of resistance opponents can offer. Now that's much tighter than in 2011. Contador won't be weaker, there are no two ways about, but this new field is principally stronger than the Schlecks and Evans.

He couldn't contain himself during the 2011 Giro. That's one thing that would have to change. No more pointless attacks and counter attacks, with the Tour in mind.

Yes, the Tour field will probably be much stronger than in 2011. Then again, I think the same applies to the Contador of this year. Much stronger than he was during his (IMO) overrated 2011 GT campaign.

I'm not as impressed by Contador's flat ITT abilities, as some others, though. The first, short TT stage of the Tour won't pose a problem for him, but I don't know what else is in store as far as ITTs go.

I think Aru will provide a good challenge and certainly push him harder than he'd like. Of course I still expect Alberto to win though but it won't be easy, particularly if weather is again bad in Italy during May.

Yeah, hence my point about conditions that would need to be met. The weather can't be too bad and the route can't be too tough. Aru and others can't have improved too much. It's a risk, for sure, but with a bit of luck...

The rumored ITT will take care of Aru, I think. The rumored MTFs don't suit him too much, either.

 

[Red Rick]

Contador has tried the double once before, here's why I think he'll be better in the 2015 Tour then in the 2011 Tour.

- In 2011 the Giro parcours was the hardes in ages
- Contador really raced the parcours, only following wheels on the last mtf
- Contador crashed multiple times in the 2011 Tour
- Contador wasted a lot of energy attacking on uphill finishes like Super-Besse and climbs like Pra Martino
- It's likely he can be better than in 2011 in the Giro

The only real disadvantage is that the competition has gotten better. But then again, so has The Great One

 

[sir fly]

Contador has tried the double once before, here's why I think he'll be better in the 2015 Tour then in the 2011 Tour.

- In 2011 the Giro parcours was the hardes in ages
- Contador really raced the parcours, only following wheels on the last mtf
- Contador crashed multiple times in the 2011 Tour
- Contador wasted a lot of energy attacking on uphill finishes like Super-Besse and climbs like Pra Martino
- It's likely he can be better than in 2011 in the Giro

The only real disadvantage is that the competition has gotten better. But then again, so has The Great One

Who's "The Great One"?

 

[Netbalp]

Contador has tried the double once before, here's why I think he'll be better in the 2015 Tour then in the 2011 Tour.

- In 2011 the Giro parcours was the hardes in ages
- Contador really raced the parcours, only following wheels on the last mtf
- Contador crashed multiple times in the 2011 Tour
- Contador wasted a lot of energy attacking on uphill finishes like Super-Besse and climbs like Pra Martino
- It's likely he can be better than in 2011 in the Giro

The only real disadvantage is that the competition has gotten better. But then again, so has The Great One

This disadvantage can sweep away all the details of the past.

As to bolded,

 

[Electress]

One of top favorites sure. Someone just wrote the fact that Froome, Nibali and Quintana skip the Giro increases chance of making the double. Sounds pretty comical.

If you mean me, I actually wrote:

I do think that Contador will ride the Giro and the Tour. If no other major GT contender is going to join him, it'll be the best chance for doing the double he's ever going to get.

Basically, if the others don’t join him in 2015, it’s clear there’s no chance of some top GT rider accord to race the same races. So the double is never going to be easier by having all the Tours on some level playing field. Plus, Contador is only getting older whilst younger riders will get more experience under their belt.

Hence - his best option for doing the double, whether or not the others are there, remains 2015.

As Serious Sam pointed out, with no top GT riders, he'd lose less energy winning (assuming he does) and hence arrive at the Tour in a lot better shape than he might. It’d be a lot worse if just one of his main rivals showed up - then he’d have to race harder and still face most of his serious rivals in top form at the Tour.

I’m not saying it makes the double more likely. I really don't know. It’d depend a whole heap on the route and weather and such like, not to mention the relative rates of recovery for all concerned. What I am saying is that if Contador is really serious about trying to do the double, 2015 is the best chance he’s going to get.

Except…as I said – if the Giro route is so ludicrous that even if he were racing a guy on stabilizers, he'd be left a shell of a man for the rest of the season.

(If it wasn’t me, least I’ve explained my logic!)

 

[djpbaltimore]

All of the top GT racers have said they want to be in top form for the next tour de france, including Contador. That wasn't the issue and certainly wasn't the point of Oleg's challenge. In any event, Froome won't do it and judging by Martinelli's comments, neither will Nibbles. Good on Contador if he goes through with it and tries to pull of the double once again.

Yes, it was one of the issues. You are conflating two ideas. My post was in reply to the silly notion stating that Froome would look like a coward for opting out of a race that he had no intention of racing long before Oleg's announcement.

Oleg is trying to win the media narrative, but it is all meaningless in reality because I'm sure he knows that Froome was set to race the TDF only.

 

[MellowJohnny]

Seriously? Because Contador has such a track record of running away from a fight..?

I do think that Contador will ride the Giro and the Tour. If no other major GT contender is going to join him, it'll be the best chance for doing the double he's ever going to get.

I suppose I could imagine him not doing only if the route is unveiled to be some beasting inhuman epic which would destroy him for the rest of the season. Even so..my money's on him doing what he says he will.

He was kind of running away from Froome on the Ventoux last year, or was it that Froome was running away from him?

 

[Electress]

He was kind of running away from Froome on the Ventoux last year, or was it that Froome was running away from him?

Reversing maybe…

At that point he probably wished he had run away…but he did keep on fighting that Tour. I've always admired him for the 'never say die'. Just as I admired Froome this Vuelta.

 

[sir fly]

Reversing maybe…

At that point he probably wished he had run away…but he did keep on fighting that Tour. I've always admired him for the 'never say die'. Just as I admired Froome this Vuelta.

He did stay in the race, but hardly fighting.
There were lots of disappointed people exactly because of lack of his attack then.
At the end, he's lost even a podium place because of the defeatism.

 

[ILovecycling]

Who's "The Great One"?

This disadvantage can sweep away all the details of the past.

As to bolded,

lol educate yourself

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_One

 

[sir fly]

lol educate yourself

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_One

Stephen Hendry, right!
But, what's he doing in this thread?

 

[ILovecycling]

Stephen Hendry, right!
But, what's he doing in this thread?

http://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/art-of-reading.html

great course for you

edit: also dont bother to asnwer to me anymore, you are my new vip member on ignore list

 

[Electress]

He did stay in the race, but hardly fighting.
There were lots of disappointed people exactly because of lack of his attack then.
At the end, he's lost even a podium place because of the defeatism.

Wow, Sir Fly, what can I say. I bow to your greater knowledge.

So - let me get this straight - what you're saying is Contador came - what - fourth, was it? - without even trying to attack that year? He just 'stayed in the race' and that was enough to beat 95% of the peloton??

Sheesh. If he can manage to get himself off his ****, the double should be cinch. He truly is the Great One.