Tirreno-Adriatico 2011 9th - 15th March

[ingsve]

Lofkvist... this field is a bit too good for him, would need a lucky escape.

Well, Löfkvist has been top 4 twice before in this race and the field is really not any stronger now than it was then, especially not in 2009. Also the finishes you mentioned that would be too steep for Ballan is the types of finishes where Löfkvist has done really well in the past. He's always done well up Montelupone in T-A and has a win and a 2nd in Strade Bianche which finishes on a steep climb like the ones in T-A. He's also been 6th in Fleche Wallone. On top of that I think Sky can do really well in the TTT and Löfkvist has at least in the past been really good in ITTs in T-A finishing 3rd in both ITTs he has ridden there. I'm expecting Löfkvist to be in the top 5 if he is in good shape and avoids crashes and things like that. My only questionmark is with his shape since he's only done one race so far and that was mostly flats.

 

[El Pistolero]

that wasn't the point. The point was, guys like that target TA. I Highly doubt MSR was a goal for them, rather 'might as well have a go if I'm here' sort of thing.

The point is making T-A your goal isn't going to hurt your chances at MSR.

 

[Lanark]

The point is making T-A your goal isn't going to hurt your chances at MSR.

Something no one argued in the first place.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Something no one argued in the first place.

I have no idea what el pickle argues about, but he does.
The point was you said people only ride TA for msr, not true.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

But that wasn't your point. You said there's nothing for the climbers, this is definitely a finish for the climbers.

No it isn't. It's something for the puncheurs, that's different than climbers.
A distinct difference.

When I mean there's nothing for the climbers, I mean there's no Monti dello laga, there's Sasso Tetto, but this time even further from the finish than last time.

Ofcourse, guys like Evans, Gesink and Garzelli do well on punch finishes as well, but they are no Gilbert

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well, Löfkvist has been top 4 twice before in this race and the field is really not any stronger now than it was then, especially not in 2009. Also the finishes you mentioned that would be too steep for Ballan is the types of finishes where Löfkvist has done really well in the past. He's always done well up Montelupone in T-A and has a win and a 2nd in Strade Bianche which finishes on a steep climb like the ones in T-A. He's also been 6th in Fleche Wallone. On top of that I think Sky can do really well in the TTT and Löfkvist has at least in the past been really good in ITTs in T-A finishing 3rd in both ITTs he has ridden there. I'm expecting Löfkvist to be in the top 5 if he is in good shape and avoids crashes and things like that. My only questionmark is with his shape since he's only done one race so far and that was mostly flats.

Give it up Lövkvist is never going to win anything, he'll be anywhere between 4th and 10th again as always

 

[maltiv]

Well, Löfkvist has been top 4 twice before in this race and the field is really not any stronger now than it was then, especially not in 2009. Also the finishes you mentioned that would be too steep for Ballan is the types of finishes where Löfkvist has done really well in the past. He's always done well up Montelupone in T-A and has a win and a 2nd in Strade Bianche which finishes on a steep climb like the ones in T-A. He's also been 6th in Fleche Wallone. On top of that I think Sky can do really well in the TTT and Löfkvist has at least in the past been really good in ITTs in T-A finishing 3rd in both ITTs he has ridden there. I'm expecting Löfkvist to be in the top 5 if he is in good shape and avoids crashes and things like that. My only questionmark is with his shape since he's only done one race so far and that was mostly flats.

Löfkvist's problem is that he doesn't have the acceleration to actually win any of these stages and his TT (at least not in his 2010 TT form) isn't good enough to make up for the time lost.

I mentioned earlier that I think EBH could do something for the overall and after what we saw in Oman it doesn't seem too unlikely, although the Sky team is a bit weaker than I expected for the TTT.

 

[Lanark]

Löfkvist's problem is that he doesn't have the acceleration to actually win any of these stages and his TT (at least not in his 2010 TT form) isn't good enough to make up for the time lost.

I mentioned earlier that I think EBH could do something for the overall and after what we saw in Oman it doesn't seem too unlikely, although the Sky team is a bit weaker than I expected for the TTT.

I disagree, well, at least partly. His acceleration used to be really good. In 2009 he destroyed everyone in the Monte Paschi Eroica, and was really good on the Montelupone in the Tirreno.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=10600
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=10579

Lövkvist problem is more that (like Gerdemann) after leaving High Road he had a dramatic decrease in performance (not suggesting anything clinic related, just stating a fact). In his 2008/2009 shape he would definitely be a contender, but I don't see him getting close to that.

 

[El Pistolero]

I have no idea what el pickle argues about, but he does.
The point was you said people only ride TA for msr, not true.

He was saying that if Gilbert would win(which I don't think he will, but it's possible) it would hurt his chances at MSR and LBL. While Gilbert has already proven he can hold top form for over 50 days.

His point, is not true. At least try and stay consistent for longer than one page.

So, I was exaggerating when I said everyone rides T-A for preparation. Only 95% of them to. Boohoo.

 

[Lanark]

He was saying that if Gilbert would win(which I don't think he will, but it's possible) it would hurt his chances at MSR.

His point, is not true. At least try and stay consistent for longer than one page.

So, I was over exagerating when I said everyone rides T-A for preparation. Only 95% of them to. Boohoo. n

Where did I say that?

 

[maltiv]

I disagree, well, at least partly. His acceleration used to be really good. In 2009 he destroyed everyone in the Monte Paschi Eroica, and was really good on the Montelupone in the Tirreno.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=10600
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=10579

Lövkvist problem is more that (like Gerdemann) after leaving High Road he had a dramatic decrease in performance (not suggesting anything clinic related, just stating a fact). In his 2008/2009 shape he would definitely be a contender, but I don't see him getting close to that.

I'm not saying he's not strong in the hills, but there's no way he will outsprint the likes of Cadel Evans, Scarponi or Rodriguez in the final meters. Löfkvist is more of a diesel, a weaker version of Basso.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Wow what a suprise another discussion because El Pistolero again misinterpreted a post

 

[El Pistolero]

In the years Gilbert was great in MSR (i.e. actually launch an impressive attack on the Poggio) he never raced the hilly classics. So no, Gilbert has never been in good/great shape during this period (and you certainly need to have great shape to win the Tirreno) all the way to LBL. In fact, he didn't even finish Paris-Nice the last two years.

This Tirreno has a team time trial, two very difficult uphill finishes, and an individual time trial. Besides that, it's an extremely nervous race, you have to focus all the time to stay in the front not to lose your GC placing in on the dozens of crashes every year. In other words, to win the Tirreno you have to be in great shape, and very motivated to ride a good GC. There is no way that doesn't exact a toll in the races to come.

You said it here.

But let me guess, Milan-San Remo is not a race that still has to come?

That and Gilbert can hold form for 50 days. Which would include the entire spring season.
Not everyone is called Andy Schleck. Keep that in mind.

Ps: I think Gilbert would rather sit in the front than be involved in a crash. Gosh, what reasoning...

 

[ingsve]

Lövkvist problem is more that (like Gerdemann) after leaving High Road he had a dramatic decrease in performance (not suggesting anything clinic related, just stating a fact). In his 2008/2009 shape he would definitely be a contender, but I don't see him getting close to that.

The problem Löfkvist had was mostly that he fell into the trap that the whole of Team Sky did by thinking too mujch only about the Tour. His spring shape suffered as a result and the spring is where he has been the best in the past. He did manage his best ever GT ride last year so his overall performance has probably not gone down but rather it was too narrowly applied. Hopefully we'll see him in good shape again in the coming month with T-A and later on the ardennes.

 

[ingsve]

I'm not saying he's not strong in the hills, but there's no way he will outsprint the likes of Cadel Evans, Scarponi or Rodriguez in the final meters. Löfkvist is more of a diesel, a weaker version of Basso.

Yes, Löfkvist is a typical diesel which means that winning is always hard for him. The drawback this year is that the punchy climbs are not exactly up to the finish line but rather a little earlier than that. My hope is more that he'll finish in the top 5 rather than actually winning it. For him to do that consistency is the.

 

[Lanark]

You said it here.

But let me guess, Milan-San Remo is not a race that still has to come?

That and Gilbert can hold form for 50 days. Which would include the entire spring season.

But it would be completely silly to suggest winning Tirreno hurts your chances for MSR, considering Cancellara won both just a couple of years ago. If you read my other posts, it's completely obvious how that sentence should be interpreted, only someone with malignous intent would think I was talking about MSR:

Gilbert wants to be good in Milano-Sanremo, Ronde van Vlaanderen (probably riding Gent-Wevelgem and Driedaagse van de Panne in preparation), Gold Race, Fleche and LBL. If he'll race the Tirreno to win, he'll be dead tired by the time he arrives at LBL. He'll probably focus on a stage win.

Yeah, but you could clearly see that Cancellara's best form was gone by Paris-Roubaix, Gilbert wants to go all the way to LBL, you can't ride every race to win from now till then if you want to have any chance of winning LBL.

He is skipping Paris-Nice in favour of Tirreno not because he wants to get a result at Tirreno, but because the only way to win MSR is to ride Tirreno.

He was pretty good at MSR last year, but never in the shape to win. If he wants to win Tirreno he has to be in better shape during this period than he was the last two years. I don't see why he would risk that, assuming he wants to win Liège.

Oh yeah, of course Gilbert can't hold his form for 50 days without taking a break in the spring. No one can (at least not after the 90's).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yes, Löfkvist is a typical diesel which means that winning is always hard for him. The drawback this year is that the punchy climbs are not exactly up to the finish line but rather a little earlier than that. My hope is more that he'll finish in the top 5 rather than actually winning it. For him to do that consistency is the.

Löfkvist was even quite easily outsprinted by Gesink in Emilia 2009 another non-sprinter

 

[Barrus]

Poels is replacing Hoogerland for Vacansoleil. He could probably go for a top 5 or top 10 in the GC

 

[El Pistolero]

But it would be completely silly to suggest winning Tirreno hurts your chances for MSR, considering Cancellara won both just a couple of years ago. If you read my other posts, it's completely obvious how that sentence should be interpreted, only someone with malignous intent would think I was talking about MSR:







Oh yeah, of course Gilbert can't hold his form for 50 days without taking a break in the spring. No one can (at least not after the 90's).

There's only one way how to interpreted a sentence like that and that's all races that have yet to come. Thus including San-Remo.

And no one is talking about 50 racing days, but about 50 days. Who is misinterpreting who now

Of course he's going to take a break during that period, it's not like he can race every day =/

Cancellara proved enough in 2008. To say he wasn't in great shape at Paris-Roubaix that year is total rubbish. He just faced someone stronger that year.

 

[Lanark]

I'm not saying he's not strong in the hills, but there's no way he will outsprint the likes of Cadel Evans, Scarponi or Rodriguez in the final meters. Löfkvist is more of a diesel, a weaker version of Basso.

No way he will outsprint Rodriguez no Evans and Scarponi, probably not, but hey, you gotta admit that this is an impressive uphill sprint (although he hasn't been able to reproduce it since):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5Cr-eibUqY

There's only one way how to interpreted a sentence like that and that's all races that have yet to come. Thus including San-Remo.

I'm of the opinion that it shows strength of character to always ascribe the strongest possible interpretation to your opponents position in a discussion, but apparently you hold the opposite view. I'm not even going to defend myself anymore, you'll just find another way to misinterpret my words.

And no one is talking about 50 racing days, but about 50 days. Who is misinterpreting who now

Of course he's going to take a break during that period, it's not like he can race every day =/

Wow, you are actually incapable of interprating anything as not-literal If you're racing Eroica, Tirreno, MSR, Gent-Wevelgem, Driedaagse, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Brabantse Pijl, AGR, Fleche and LBL to win, you're pretty much not taking a break. And no, I don't think that's possible.

 

[El Pistolero]

No way he will outsprint Rodriguez no Evans and Scarponi, probably not, but hey, you gotta admit that this is an impressive uphill sprint (although he hasn't been able to reproduce it since):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5Cr-eibUqY
I'm of the opinion that it shows strength of character to always ascribe the strongest possible interpretation to your opponents position in a discussion, but apparently you hold the opposite view. I'm not even going to defend myself anymore, you'll just find another way to misinterpret my words.

Wow, you are actually incapable of interprating anything as not-literal If you're racing Eroica, Tirreno, MSR, Gent-Wevelgem, Driedaagse, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Brabantse Pijl, AGR, Fleche and LBL to win, you're pretty much not taking a break. And no, I don't think that's possible.

Bolded races are the ones he tried to win.

You seriously are using arguments that have been dis-proven by the cyclists themselves. Apparently it is possible or else he wouldn't have done it.

ps: saying something like "that will take his toll on the races to come" is a literal sentence and has no figural meaning. You sound like those catholics trying to defend their Bible even though it has 2 different stories about how God made the earth. Jesus Christ...

No one is saying Gilbert will win every single race he enters, but he tries and usually does good at pretty much all the races you just mentioned... Ergo your argument is not worth a dime. It's impossible to win all those races in one single season, that's why Phil isn't throwing all his apples in a single basket(figure of speech )

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gilbert was pretty much crap at Mallorca though. And in the hard stages (read, hard stages, not the 1st easy one he won) of Algarve he was nowhere And in the openingsweekend too.