Tirreno-Adriatico 2011 9th - 15th March

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Well, when there are too few MTFs I miss them too but lately things have gotten a little out of hand with every single stage race almost being catered towards the pure climber. I just want some variety.

For years I saw races with weak climbs and long tts . Needless to say, I'm pretty content with a flood of mtfs. In fact I love it but I'n biased climbing is my favorite aspect of cycling.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Funny/Strange Preview video of Tirenno Adriatico

 

[Wurfel]

What about Peter Velits in this race? He could do something maybe...

 

[auscyclefan94]

Sketchy Tirenno Adriatico Startlist

 

[El Pistolero]

I'm expecting Gilbert to pick up a stage win here. And Boonen as well unless he decides to avoid all sprints.

Overall? Perhaps Cancellara, but I'm going to take a risky bet and say Gilbert will win

Scarponi also a good contender to pick up the overall here.

 

[auscyclefan94]

BMC Racing Team

Alessandro Ballan (ITA), Marcus Burghardt (GER), Cadel Evans (AUS), George Hincapie (USA), Manuel Quinziato (ITA), Mauro Santambrogio (ITA), Michael Schär (SUI), Greg Van Avermaet (BEL).

BMC racing Team Press Release on Tirenno Adriatico

 

[canyonball]

Ballan has the form and the skills to pick a tage on this one. I would be disapointed if he didn't. It's about time.

The problem I find with TA and PN is that even if the profiles aren't that impressive, as long as the course is raced agressivly surprises can happen. All in all, I just hope cancellara or similar don't take this. Hate it when an ITT decides the race (with few exeptions, but hey...that's just me)

 

[Ferminal]

I think the finishes might be a bit too steep for Ballan.

Stage 4 in Chieti

12.1% from 2,100m to 1,050m.

Stage 6 in Macerata

11.3% for 650m at the end (the 3rd circuit).

He would also need to survive the climb on stage 5, which is 14.6km @ 6.42%... should be fine though as its still a long way from the finish. His classics ability could be his strength on the monster 240km+ stages. His TTing isn't bad, but will still lose a reasonable (relative to what you can gain earlier in the race) amount of time to the "natural" TT'ers on this very straight course. If he has any sort of form, Evans is the better candidate for BMC, but that doesn't mean they can't be co-leaders. It's possibly the strongest BMC lineup I've seen so hopefully they get something out of it.

Scarponi has to be a favourite, but I think he will leak too much time in the ITT. If you look last year he finished 12" ahead of Evans, but he would lose that in the ITT for sure. Gesink... maybe, will he bring his Oman form? I guess he can't TT anyway so let's forget about Bobby Rodriguez should win a stage, and he isn't that bad in short ITTs, but he will need a time gap (or multiple wins). Evans, very hard to know his form.

Whilst originally being dismissive of Cancellara's chances I am somewhat warming to that idea (much to my disgust), absolute peak form Cancellara could take the damage on those finishes and burn 30s off everyone in the ITT, but is that who will show up? Similar story to EBH, but being burnt by his Oman performance I'm more reluctant to write him off this time!

What about the GT winners? Basso... no. Nibali - maybe, but he will not be the best finisher, could be top5. Last year's champion should also be right up there.

Lofkvist... this field is a bit too good for him, would need a lucky escape. Visconti and Sinkewitz will be strong. Astana have a number of outlets in this race to get wins, but GC will be a bit too much, same for Movistar.

Finally we get to Phil, where will this man stop. The steepness may be a bit much for him, but I am beginning to doubt this assessment I made only a few days ago. His TTing shouldn't be a problem (only losing lots of time to Cancellara!), and another one who will enjoy the long stages.

So...

Gilbert
Evans
Gesink
Rodriguez
Garzelli

 

[canyonball]

Ferminal, I was talking about a stage win for Ballan. And yes, I agree there are better candidates for those finishes, but I think Macerata is within his reach. And a break is always possible.

And scarponi is with lampre now...

 

[Lanark]

So...

Gilbert
Evans
Gesink
Rodriguez
Garzelli

Good analysis. If riders like Gilbert, Cancellara on the one hand, and guys like Gesink and Rodriguez on the other hand are all favorites, it's definitely an interesting and unpredictable route.

I do think you're putting too much emphasis on the ITT. It's really short, I doubt anyone would lose more than 20 seconds on that (unless Cancellara or Boasson Hagen are really on fire), with some bonus seconds in the difficult stages, a good climber should be able to create a large enough gap. The only thing I really hope is that the team time trial won't have a big influence.

I would add Scarponi to the favorites. He was in great shape in Sardinia, something a lot of other guys you mention have yet to show (Garzelli, Rodriguez, Evans).

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think steepness may be a bit much for Gilbert. The finishes are both quite similar to a Fleche Wallonne.

I think Gesink or Evans will be the big favourites. TTT will be a big factor in the overall.

 

[Ferminal]

lol, what was I thinking! Didn't see him on the cyclingfever startlist and panicked Still bad that there's no Androni!

I sort of overlooked the TTT, it could bring someone like Velits into play, and probably boost the chances of EBH and Cancellara. Probably neutral for Gilbert, Evans, Gesink and Liquigas. Negative for Rodriguez, Scarponi and Garzelli.

Now I've just over-analysed the whole thing.

 

[theyoungest]

I think steepness may be a bit much for Gilbert. The finishes are both quite similar to a Fleche Wallonne.

No, I think those gradients are just within Gilbert's capabilities. The way they flew up that Macerata finish last year, you don't see that on the Mur de Huy. Definitely not as hard.

 

[auscyclefan94]

No, I think those gradients are just within Gilbert's capabilities. The way they flew up that Macerata finish last year, you don't see that on the Mur de Huy. Definitely not as hard.

We'll see, I personally don't see him featuring highly in the overall. I think the greadients will be a bit much for him to feature highly in the overall but it is Gilbert and he is a class act so you never know.

 

[Ferminal]

Anyone know who The Shack are sending?

Machado
Popo
Deignan
Horner
McEwen
Zubeldia
Hermans
King

Something like that? Will be interesting to see Machado.

 

[rxgqgxnyfz]

Isn't Popo and Machado going to Giro?

I doubt there will be much left to do another GT after it.

What happenned with Brajkovich being the next GT guy for Tour?

 

[taiwan]

No, I think those gradients are just within Gilbert's capabilities. The way they flew up that Macerata finish last year, you don't see that on the Mur de Huy. Definitely not as hard.

I hope Gilbert isn't interested in the overall. If he races everything to win, it could end up a pretty boring season: he could take everything from Flanders to, say the the Dauphinee.

(okay, that's exaggerating a bit)

Is Evans going for the overall, with his new, light, programme?

 

[taiwan]

Isn't Popo and Machado going to Giro?

I doubt there will be much left to do another GT after it.

What happenned with Brajkovich being the next GT guy for Tour?

Is Evans going for the overall, with his new, light, programme?

 

[theyoungest]

I hope Gilbert isn't interested in the overall. If he races everything to win, it could end up a pretty boring season: he could take everything from Flanders to, say the the Dauphinee.

(okay, that's exaggerating a bit)

Even Gilbert isn't always on form I remember him going for a Tour de Suisse stage win last year, that didn't quite work out. But here it will be the question if he wants to go for the overall, I think not, but if he wants to it's his for the taking.

 

[Lanark]

Gilbert wants to be good in Milano-Sanremo, Ronde van Vlaanderen (probably riding Gent-Wevelgem and Driedaagse van de Panne in preparation), Gold Race, Fleche and LBL. If he'll race the Tirreno to win, he'll be dead tired by the time he arrives at LBL. He'll probably focus on a stage win.

 

[Lupetto]

Katusha: Caruso, Di Luca, Kolobnev, Kuchynski, Moreno, Paolini, Pozzato, Purito.

So no racing from Gilbert with Pozzato stuck to his wheel for 1000k next week.

 

[El Pistolero]

Gilbert wants to be good in Milano-Sanremo, Ronde van Vlaanderen (probably riding Gent-Wevelgem and Driedaagse van de Panne in preparation), Gold Race, Fleche and LBL. If he'll race the Tirreno to win, he'll be dead tired by the time he arrives at LBL. He'll probably focus on a stage win.

You can win in Tirreno and be good at MSR and P-R in one season. Just look at Cancellara. He won Montepaschi Strade Bianche, Tirreno-Adriatico, Milan-San Remo and a silver medal at Paris-Roubaix in 2008.

He's not making it his goal to win, but if he's in a position to win it I doubt he would give it away.

 

[Jamsque]

If Di Luca can recapture his pre-ban form he has a very good chance of taking the overall.

 

[roundabout]

Katusha: Caruso, Di Luca, Kolobnev, Kuchynski, Moreno, Paolini, Pozzato, Purito.

So no racing from Gilbert with Pozzato stuck to his wheel for 1000k next week.

They'll probably lose too much time in the TTT with a team like that for any of them to win.

Nibali can win on a course like this and of course Scarponi can not be discounted if Lampre doesn't have a disaster.

 

[auscyclefan94]

How will katusha go if they want the overall as their target for di luca and/or Rodriguez? They may lose some time.