Tirreno-Adriatico, March 7-13, 2.UWT

[johnymax]

I see nothing wrong with stages 3 and 4. A 40km longer Fleche Wallonne in a week stage race? No problem at all with that. As for stage 4...I know many expect the MTF will kill the action in the middle part. But it might not be the case. I'm hopeful the peloton will fraction on those hills as I expect many teams and riders will play catch-up to Sky, Sunweb an BMC (too bad there's no Porte) riders after the TTT. There's a certain Mr. Nibali whose biggest chance to gain time will be on this stage so I expect him and his team to be aggressive before the final climb.

Also I've had high hopes for Roglic in this race. His goal this season is to win a one week WT stage race. I think he'll be up there with the best but I have a hard time seeing him actually win the race because of the TTT. Lotto Jumbo will do well in the TTT but will probably loose 30-40 seconds to the winner and that'd be too much to overcome for a not top-notch climber. I'm actually very surprised seeing him 3rd favourite based on betting odds at bet365 behind Thomas and Dumoulin.

 

[Arredondo]

1. Thomas 2. Landa 3. Benoot

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I also have no idea what a TTT is doing in a race like this (or any race for that matter). The only effect is has, it that elimiates a lot of riders from the GC contention. I can't see how that is doing the race any good?

 

[jarvo]

The 2x time trials will have too much influence on this race IMO, therefore winner will be 1 from Sunweb, Sky or BMC

 

[fauniera]

Re:

I also have no idea what a TTT is doing in a race like this (or any race for that matter). The only effect is has, it that elimiates a lot of riders from the GC contention. I can't see how that is doing the race any good?

So true.

It also harms most Italian contenders, but somehow RCS doesn't seem to care.

 

[Põhja Konn]

With question marks over Dumoulin's form I go with:

1) Thomas
2) Nibali
3) Bardet

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

With question marks over Dumoulin's form I go with:

1) Thomas
2) Nibali
3) Bardet

Nibali has no business in TA. It will be 2014 season all over again, hopefully he'll turn up in the Ardennes though. Bardet is severely handicapped by the TTs.

 

[DNP-Old]

Dumoulin is ill.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I also have no idea what a TTT is doing in a race like this (or any race for that matter). The only effect is has, it that elimiates a lot of riders from the GC contention. I can't see how that is doing the race any good?

This.

Especially in a 1 week race.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Re: Re:

I also have no idea what a TTT is doing in a race like this (or any race for that matter). The only effect is has, it that elimiates a lot of riders from the GC contention. I can't see how that is doing the race any good?

This.

Especially in a 1 week race.

I agree its clueless.
Especially tough on the wildcard teams

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Dumoulin is ill.

Well, he has a cold, turns out today. Already before strade bianchi so that explains the lesser form. In my opinion would be wiser to make Kelderman leader and have Dumoulin help him a bit. He's got other more important goals further down the road

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Astana all the way baby. Lutsenko to ride into the sunset with Lopez helping out

 

[Koronin]

So I guess the question is what Puncheurs are even at this race? Definitely not the top 3. Alaphilippe and Martin are at Paris-Nice and Valverde has the week off. So I guess that leaves those two stage much more open.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re: Re:

I also have no idea what a TTT is doing in a race like this (or any race for that matter). The only effect is has, it that elimiates a lot of riders from the GC contention. I can't see how that is doing the race any good?

So true.

It also harms most Italian contenders, but somehow RCS doesn't seem to care.

Kwiatek, Thomas, Froome, Moscon, Kiry, Castroviejo, Puccio...

 

[jaylew]

Sick or no, I wouldn't have had Dumo as favorite. He's won plenty of ITT stages, but has he ever actually won GC in a week long or shorter stage race outside of Eneco?

 

[Koronin]

Movistar's TTT could be a wildcard depending on how they ride it. They're sending their two TT specialists Sutterlin and Oliveria along with Amador who is pretty good with TTTs. They should be able to limit their losses and keep Landa and Amador close.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Sick or no, I wouldn't have had Dumo as favorite. He's won plenty of ITT stages, but has he ever actually won GC in a week long or shorter stage race outside of Eneco?

Historic results are a bad argument when the rider has shown an elevated level in a GT clearly not seen before. So you can't compare it that way.

In general cycling has taught me past results say almost nothing. Unless a rider consistently wins the same race, which is even rare.

 

[jaylew]

That's odd. I'd say the opposite. But yeah, I guess we'll see if this elevated GT form translates to shorter stage race wins. If I must be completely honest, I'm not fully convinced that he's a perennial GT podium guy just yet but he could certainly convince me of that.

 

[Escarabajo]

This year is important for Dumoulin, because he will be more marked and be more attacked that he was at the Giro. So this is the year where he has to show his consistency like any other GT multi winner.

 

[Koronin]

Well just saw the Movistar is the first team that will be on course for the TTT tomorrow. That is never a good sign for them. So yeah, it's unlikely they'll end up with a good time.

 

[The GCW]

With the TTT isn't it fair to say this race is rigged? I'm hoping Uran wins, however, due to the TTT, race organizers have screwed Uran.

 

[Krokro]

I'm expecting Thomas, Kwiat and Keldermann to do great. I can't really see pure climbers to be a threat in GC.

What do you guys think about some "darkhorses" never really mentionned here?

Amador and Jungels for their allrounder skills.

Impey because he has had a stellar early season and the course suits him so much except for stage 4. I mean, that guy can contest a top 10 in a flat sprint, easy top 5 when on form in the 2 punchy stages and is a capable rouleur in the TT. The only big issue is that Ewan is there.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

With the TTT isn't it fair to say this race is rigged? I'm hoping Uran wins, however, due to the TTT, race organizers have screwed Uran.

Starting early could be an advantage if the 20% chance of rain
actually materialises later in the session.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I'm expecting Thomas, Kwiat and Keldermann to do great. I can't really see pure climbers to be a threat in GC.

What do you guys think about some "darkhorses" never really mentionned here?

Amador and Jungels for their allrounder skills.

Impey because he has had a stellar early season and the course suits him so much except for stage 4. I mean, that guy can contest a top 10 in a flat sprint, easy top 5 when on form in the 2 punchy stages and is a capable rouleur in the TT. The only big issue is that Ewan is there.

George Bennett isn't mentioned a lot here but could do well. Roson will be interesting to follow as well.

 

[GP Blanco]

Re: Re:

I'm expecting Thomas, Kwiat and Keldermann to do great. I can't really see pure climbers to be a threat in GC.

What do you guys think about some "darkhorses" never really mentionned here?

Amador and Jungels for their allrounder skills.

Impey because he has had a stellar early season and the course suits him so much except for stage 4. I mean, that guy can contest a top 10 in a flat sprint, easy top 5 when on form in the 2 punchy stages and is a capable rouleur in the TT. The only big issue is that Ewan is there.

George Bennett isn't mentioned a lot here but could do well. Roson will be interesting to follow as well.

Roglic will lead Lotto-Jumbo.