Off topic, I hate when people say GC contenders are TT riders who can climb a bit, or are climbers who can TT a bit. Sometimes its true, but seriously someone like Ullrich not a climber? he was probably top 3 in the climbing stakes of almost every tour he entered.
On topic, Martin is really talented I don't think as talented as ullrich, I don't think anyone was or is. Ullrich came second in his first tour at 22, and won a year later at 23. Yes doping, but who wasn't? Off topic again.
Back on...Martin will win this year's tour, he will ride a great open stage and after the TTT will be right up there, and then will go on a long escape to take 10 minutes which the favourites can't pull back over the following mountain stages and TT. He is my value pick for betting
It could happen but i doubt it, more likely I see him in his 3rd or 4th tour as a real force. This year he'll ride support and be given leeway for breakaways.