Top 10 Tour de France

[taiwan]

People are really letting their hair down with these predictions.

 

[Taxus4a]

Anton
Froome
Schleck
Evans
Purito
Contador
Pinot
TVG
Rolland
Fulgsang

It would be a big surprise. One stage is possible.

I agree with the rest

 

[Telmisartan]

Pinot
Contador
Froome
TJVG
Rodriguez
Mollema
Valverde
Fuglsang
Porte
Peraud

 

[Pantani_lives]

My top 10 with motivation:

1 Froome: Best combination of climbing and time trialling; strongest team. The Dauphiné winner is often overrated in TdF polls, but this year you can hardly look past him.
2 Contador: Not so impressive yet this season, but might have peaked.
3 Porte: If he doesn't have to sacrifice himself too much, Sky might get two riders on the podium again.
4 Hesjedal: Last year's Giro winner focussed on the Tour this year. He'll be recovered from his crash in the Tour de Suisse.
5 Mollema: Strong in the Tour de Suisse, in better shape than some of the big names.
6 Pinot: Strong in the Tour de Suisse, already ninth last year.
7 Rodriguez: Unfortunately for him there are no really steep MTFs in the Tour, but his Vuelta of last year showed how much he improved as a GT rider.
8 Van den Broeck: Not so good yet this year, ill during Daupiné; but he finished fourth last year and numbers one and three are absent.
9 Quintana: Hopefully he won't have to sacrifice himself for Valverde. Impressive win in Bask Country. Not sure if he's ready to perform on the same level for three weeks.
10 Van Garderen: He was already the strongest in his team last year, but his mountain TT in Suisse was doubtful.

Not in my top 10:
A. Schleck: He's improving, but he still couldn't follow Mollema and Pinot in Suisse.
Evans: After finishing third in the Giro I don't think he'll have enough left.
Valverde: Second in last year's Vuelta, but it went wrong so often for him in the Tour...
Rolland: My number eleven or twelve. No certainty for the GC, might go for mountain jersey and/or stage win.
Gesink: The Giro was his goal, and it went wrong once again. Now he'll probably have to work for Mollema.
Talansky: Might make the top 10 if he doesn't have to work too much for Hesjedal.
Cunego: Nowhere in the spring classics. I don't see him repeating his performance of two years ago.
Moreno: Third in Dauphiné, but he'll have to sacrifice himself for Purito.
Anton: Not enough body for the Tour.
Brajkovic: One of two Astana leaders in Nibali's absence. Ninth last year, but his potential in the GTs seems to be limited.
Fuglsang: One of two Astana leaders in Nibali's absence. His fourth place in the Dauphiné makes him an outsider for the top ten.

 

[Gubby Allen]

Just to be different

1) Rodriguez
2) Froome -in yellow most of it.
3) Van Garderen
4) Valverde
5) Contador
6) Porte
7) Quintana
8) MartinD
9) Moreno
10) Pinot, just from Fuglsang, Mollema, VandenBroeck, Talansky, Rolland and Navarro.

If they make it round Hesjedal just inside 20, Evans around 20, Schleck mid 20s.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I calculated the points for each rider based on all the lists posted in this thread. (10 points for No. 1, 9 for No. 2 etc.). So this is the top ten according to the members of this forum:

1 Froome
2 Contador
3 Rodríguez
4 Porte
5 Pinot
6 Valverde
7 Quintana
8 Van den Broeck
9 Van Garderen
10 Evans

(11 A. Schleck)
(12 Hesjedal)
(13 Mollema)
(14 Rolland)

Trivia:
*Five people predicted a tenth place for Nieve, but no one placed him higher.
*No one voted for Brajkovic, last year's No. 9.
*Rui Costa finished 15th despite of not being on the start list.

 

[gregrowlerson]

1) Contador
2) Klöden
3) Cunego

Stop hitting on me

And when Kloden loses his yellow jersey on the way to the Le Grand Bornand (every Klodist knows that this town is his kryptonite) I will cry foul of how unsportsmanlike it was for Contador to have attacked. On a mountain mind you!

It's going to be bigger than chaingate

 

[movingtarget]

My top 10 with motivation:

1 Froome: Best combination of climbing and time trialling; strongest team. The Dauphiné winner is often overrated in TdF polls, but this year you can hardly look past him.
2 Contador: Not so impressive yet this season, but might have peaked.
3 Porte: If he doesn't have to sacrifice himself too much, Sky might get two riders on the podium again.
4 Hesjedal: Last year's Giro winner focussed on the Tour this year. He'll be recovered from his crash in the Tour de Suisse.
5 Mollema: Strong in the Tour de Suisse, in better shape than some of the big names.
6 Pinot: Strong in the Tour de Suisse, already ninth last year.
7 Rodriguez: Unfortunately for him there are no really steep MTFs in the Tour, but his Vuelta of last year showed how much he improved as a GT rider.
8 Van den Broeck: Not so good yet this year, ill during Daupiné; but he finished fourth last year and numbers one and three are absent.
9 Quintana: Hopefully he won't have to sacrifice himself for Valverde. Impressive win in Bask Country. Not sure if he's ready to perform on the same level for three weeks.
10 Van Garderen: He was already the strongest in his team last year, but his mountain TT in Suisse was doubtful.

Not in my top 10:
A. Schleck: He's improving, but he still couldn't follow Mollema and Pinot in Suisse.
Evans: After finishing third in the Giro I don't think he'll have enough left.
Valverde: Second in last year's Vuelta, but it went wrong so often for him in the Tour...
Rolland: My number eleven or twelve. No certainty for the GC, might go for mountain jersey and/or stage win.
Gesink: The Giro was his goal, and it went wrong once again. Now he'll probably have to work for Mollema.
Talansky: Might make the top 10 if he doesn't have to work too much for Hesjedal.
Cunego: Nowhere in the spring classics. I don't see him repeating his performance of two years ago.
Moreno: Third in Dauphiné, but he'll have to sacrifice himself for Purito.
Anton: Not enough body for the Tour.
Brajkovic: One of two Astana leaders in Nibali's absence. Ninth last year, but his potential in the GTs seems to be limited.
Fuglsang: One of two Astana leaders in Nibali's absence. His fourth place in the Dauphiné makes him an outsider for the top ten.

That just shows you how hard it is this year to pick the top 10. I am not as optimistic as you about Ryder and I think Rodriguez will do better than 7th. Evans is also a query but I think he will make top 10 at least. Usually the time gap between the winner's overall time and the tenth placed rider is quite big, be interesting to see how big the gap is this year.

 

[cineteq]

Valverde not being top 10 is a big mistake. You must reconsider.

My top 10 with motivation:

1 Froome: Best combination of climbing and time trialling; strongest team. The Dauphiné winner is often overrated in TdF polls, but this year you can hardly look past him.
2 Contador: Not so impressive yet this season, but might have peaked.
3 Porte: If he doesn't have to sacrifice himself too much, Sky might get two riders on the podium again.
4 Hesjedal: Last year's Giro winner focussed on the Tour this year. He'll be recovered from his crash in the Tour de Suisse.
5 Mollema: Strong in the Tour de Suisse, in better shape than some of the big names.
6 Pinot: Strong in the Tour de Suisse, already ninth last year.
7 Rodriguez: Unfortunately for him there are no really steep MTFs in the Tour, but his Vuelta of last year showed how much he improved as a GT rider.
8 Van den Broeck: Not so good yet this year, ill during Daupiné; but he finished fourth last year and numbers one and three are absent.
9 Quintana: Hopefully he won't have to sacrifice himself for Valverde. Impressive win in Bask Country. Not sure if he's ready to perform on the same level for three weeks.
10 Van Garderen: He was already the strongest in his team last year, but his mountain TT in Suisse was doubtful.

Not in my top 10:
A. Schleck: He's improving, but he still couldn't follow Mollema and Pinot in Suisse.
Evans: After finishing third in the Giro I don't think he'll have enough left.
Valverde: Second in last year's Vuelta, but it went wrong so often for him in the Tour...
Rolland: My number eleven or twelve. No certainty for the GC, might go for mountain jersey and/or stage win.
Gesink: The Giro was his goal, and it went wrong once again. Now he'll probably have to work for Mollema.
Talansky: Might make the top 10 if he doesn't have to work too much for Hesjedal.
Cunego: Nowhere in the spring classics. I don't see him repeating his performance of two years ago.
Moreno: Third in Dauphiné, but he'll have to sacrifice himself for Purito.
Anton: Not enough body for the Tour.
Brajkovic: One of two Astana leaders in Nibali's absence. Ninth last year, but his potential in the GTs seems to be limited.
Fuglsang: One of two Astana leaders in Nibali's absence. His fourth place in the Dauphiné makes him an outsider for the top ten.

 

[Ferminal]

Well, I think he will top5, but he's had about 6 attempts and hasn't got close. A tough curse to break.

 

[biopass]

It would be a big surprise. One stage is possible.

I agree with the rest

I know. But it would be some beautiful riding in the mountains if Anton managed the podium

 

[Pantani_lives]

Valverde not being top 10 is a big mistake. You must reconsider.

I more or less gave up on Valverde in the Tour five years ago, when he finished ninth after winning the Dauphiné. Now at 33 he's counted among the favorites again, mainly because of his strong Vuelta and his good shape this year. Well, we'll see.

 

[PedalCastro]

I had Tejay VG down in 9th but I am reconsidering... Can he get a top 5?

 

[biopass]

I had Tejay VG down in 9th but I am reconsidering... Can he get a top 5?

Only if Evans goes down.

 

[nick101]

Only if Evans goes down.

Would be very tough considering the quality field. I'd say it's only realistic goal if both evans and half the gc contenders crash out, which is usually the case. so 50/50 chance imo

 

[biopass]

Would be very tough considering the quality field. I'd say it's only realistic goal if both evans and half the gc contenders crash out, which is usually the case. so 50/50 chance imo

Evans have his guardian angels to protect him when things get chaotic. I wouldnt rate it 50/50.

 

[Taxus4a]

IMO TVG will loss time with Evans in the last stage of Corsica.

 

[movingtarget]

IMO TVG will loss time with Evans in the last stage of Corsica.

Evans is usually very solid in the first week when others are having problems or crashing. First serious mountain stage is always the tester for him.

 

[Bexon30]

Evans is usually very solid in the first week when others are having problems or crashing. First serious mountain stage is always the tester for him.

I think with Evans age and Giro legs will catch up with him in week 3 might struggle to place well.

 

[Warhawk]

Well, Tejay's chances are probably not as much dependent on how well Evans is riding per se, and more on how quickly Evans figures out how he's riding.

 

[RocketScientist]

My rating

********** - Froome
********* - Contador
******** - Quintana
******* - Porte, Valverde, Rodriguez, Van Garderen, Van Den Broeck
****** - Evans, Hesjedal, Pinot
***** - Schleck, Rolland, Brajkovic, Mollema, Costa, Kreuziger
**** - Fuglsang, Gesink, Zubeldia, Taaramae, Talansky, Dan Martin
*** - Peraud, Moreno, Nieve, Anton, Cunego, De Gendt, Westra, Navarro, Voeckler, Velits
** - Meyer, Ten Dam, Kwiatkowski, Vande Velde
* - Amador, Le Mevel, Coppel, Klöden...

And an article I wrote about it
A quick look at this year's Tour de France overall favourites

 

[movingtarget]

I think with Evans age and Giro legs will catch up with him in week 3 might struggle to place well.

Maybe but Evans thinks he is in better shape and feels better than he did in 2010 when he finished fifth in the Giro and was in the yellow jersey at the Tour until his broken elbow. Interesting days ahead for the fans.

 

[MellowJohnny]

I've had to go for a revision to my original selection

Froome
Contador
Van Garderen
Rodriguez
Porte
Evans
Van Den Broek
Kessiakoff
Rui Costa
Peraud

 

[Bexon30]

Maybe but Evans thinks he is in better shape and feels better than he did in 2010 when he finished fifth in the Giro and was in the yellow jersey at the Tour until his broken elbow. Interesting days ahead for the fans.

That is interesting I'd also wonder who might break into the top ten completely from left field,? There's going to be a surprise I personally think Quintana is the biggest threat to GC. His team could back him with some great support. As for Evans he may have to rediscover 2011 form to get close this year. The bars been moved up a notch imo.

 

[movingtarget]

That is interesting I'd also wonder who might break into the top ten completely from left field,? There's going to be a surprise I personally think Quintana is the biggest threat to GC. His team could back him with some great support. As for Evans he may have to rediscover 2011 form to get close this year. The bars been moved up a notch imo.

Yes I get the feeling that Evans is only being mentioned simply because he won the 2011 Tour but the reality is nobody expects him to win and many don't expect him to podium. But the so called Contador/ Froome match race could also be much more complicated than that. No teams will want to see Sky dictate the race like last year so it could be very tactical with many teams using their best domestques like Quintana, Moreno, Kreuziger etc. to put pressure on other teams to chase. Everyone remembers what happened with Pereiro in 2006. This could expose the weaker teams and the third week could have a lot of very tired riders including some of the GC contenders.