Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TDF?

[Gigs_98]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

What I also find very interesting is at what point Bernal will go for his own chances, possibly ignoring team orders. I mean it's one thing to tell Froome to stay with Wiggins on Peyragudes when Wiggins is a few minutes in front, but if Pinot and Alaphilippe are dropped Bernal might very well think, f*ck this, I'm not gifting away a tdf victory by less than half a minute.

 

[Bardamu]

Uran, Landa & Fuglsang to join a big break. Landa the only one strong enough to stick it to the end and ride himself into yellow.

 

[rick james]

Pinot is about to cook in the heatwave

 

[del1962]

Kruisjwijk and Bernal seem to be the least likely to crack

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

I have this very bad feeling that Pinot might have blown the tour by not putting more time into Thomas. I have the gut feeling that in the alps thomas will be able to hang on, not lose any more time and win the tour by a few seconds.

It's only 15s, and he's not just been a little stronger in the Pyrenees. If he's still as strong in the Alps he could probably take that on any of the final climbs.

Tactically it's a crazy situation due to Alaphilippe being there. Bonus seconds on those mountains can also come into play. I don't think Izoard shenanigans will happen and instead it's gonna be waiting for the Galibier. If Alaphilippe doesn't lose big time there, you bet that Iseran shenanigans will be on.

 

[starlord]

I think now that Thomas has warmed up his legs a bit he's going to be the strongest in the Alps. Kruijswijk 2nd, Bernal 3rd

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Who voted for Valverde, take the poll seriously. We are going high next week. He's going to lose buckets of time.

He's not. He'll finish top 5...

 

[Blanco]

Alaphilippe, Thomas and Buchmann will fade, that leaves us with Pinot, Kruijswijk and Bernal. Movistar will be the strongest team in the 3rd week, like they were at the Giro, so Mikel Landa will have a great chance to finish somewhere on the podium. Also Valverde could easily end up in the top 5.

 

[JosephK]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

My old friend Buzz Killington just texted me: "Stage 10 looking really costly, still."

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

Alaphilippe, Thomas and Buchmann will fade, that leaves us with Pinot, Kruijswijk and Bernal. Movistar will be the strongest team in the 3rd week, like they were at the Giro, so Mikel Landa will have a great chance to finish somewhere on the podium. Also Valverde could easily end up in the top 5.

Bold shout on Valverde given what’s to come. 6 climbs over 2000m with the Roselend just a few metres off that. Yesterday was better but the stage suited him more than 18,19 and 20 will.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Sticking with Kruijswijk - he'll will finally take yellow off Alaphilippe on saturday

 

[Arked]

I picked Thomas, but it's like 25% chance in my opinion. I'd give 20% to Bernal, Pinot and Kruijswijk, 10% to Alaphillipe and 5% for the rest.

 

[hfer07]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

There are only two riders that truly deserve to win this Tour 2019, because of the aggressiveness they've displayed during the race so far:

Pinot & Landa

I'd be delighted if either one of them win

 

[Brough]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

There are only two riders that truly deserve to win this Tour 2019, because of the aggressiveness they've displayed during the race so far:

Pinot & Landa

I'd be delighted if either one of them win

Alaphilippe hasn’t been aggressive enough for you?!

 

[macbindle]

Aggresivity is all very well but actually Pinot is a bit stupid. Imagine all the matches he has had to burn just to put right the mistake he made on the cross wind stage.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Aggresivity is all very well but actually Pinot is a bit stupid. Imagine all the matches he has had to burn just to put right the mistake he made on the cross wind stage.

What do you mean stupid?

Would it have been wiser to not burn any matches and still be two minutes behind?

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Aggresivity is all very well but actually Pinot is a bit stupid. Imagine all the matches he has had to burn just to put right the mistake he made on the cross wind stage.

What do you mean stupid?

Would it have been wiser to not burn any matches and still be two minutes behind?

Stupid is probably not the right word. But there is a point that Pinot has really used a lot of energy just to be in the same spot as everybody else in the top 6 bar Alaphilippe. Whether he's burned too many matches remains to be seen, so it's obviously premature to claim that he's been stupid.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

There are only two riders that truly deserve to win this Tour 2019, because of the aggressiveness they've displayed during the race so far:

Pinot & Landa

I'd be delighted if either one of them win

Alaphilppe wasn't aggressive?

 

[King Of The Wolds]

G showed aggression too by putting his team on the front during the crosswinds and blowing the race to bits.

 

[Lequack]

If Quickstep manage to somehow win the overall with Alaphillipe how will their plans change for the future? They've had the same strategy of chasing stage wins and being very good at it, their overall was always one guy (Mas, Alaphillipe, ...) with no real support. But if they manage to win the TDF surely they can't bring the same team here next year and hope for a repeat?

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Aggresivity is all very well but actually Pinot is a bit stupid. Imagine all the matches he has had to burn just to put right the mistake he made on the cross wind stage.

What do you mean stupid?

Would it have been wiser to not burn any matches and still be two minutes behind?

Stupid is probably not the right word. But there is a point that Pinot has really used a lot of energy just to be in the same spot as everybody else in the top 6 bar Alaphilippe. Whether he's burned too many matches remains to be seen, so it's obviously premature to claim that he's been stupid.

I think it would have been pretty stupid not to capitalise on his obviously superior level in the Pyrenees. In fact, I think the only slightly stupid thing you could say he has done was that he waited on the Tourmalet. Especially because Geraint would probably have been dropped immediately if he had attacked earlier, and then he would have been in front of the Welshman now.

But that was impossible to know at the time, and given that he at that point was an unlikely winner of the overall, it's understandable that he went all in for the stage instead.

 

[rghysens]

I expect Thomas to win.
Ineos/Sky train to return to full strength. On vive le velo they showed some images of Kwiat and Rowe joking around with a gopro camera on Prat d'Albis while people like Bennoot and De Gendt were suffering like dogs. They're just saving their legs.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

I expect Thomas to win.
Ineos/Sky train to return to full strength. On vive le velo they showed some images of Kwiat and Rowe joking around with a gopro camera on Prat d'Albis while people like Bennoot and De Gendt were suffering like dogs. They're just saving their legs.

No, they are not!

 

[tobydawq]

I just did a count.

The riders in the current top 10 have accumulated a grand total of 14 top 10's in previous Tours!

Valverde accounts for almost half of those (6).

Among the 14 top 10's there is one victory, one second place, two third places.

Pinot and Landa are the only riders beside Valverde who have more than one top 10 of those in the current top 10.

Alaphilippe, Buchmann and Bernal have accumulated no Grand Tour top 10's at all. Thomas and Fuglsang both have just 1. Landa has 4, Pinot 5, Urán and Kruijswijk 6, Valverde 17 (!).

The entire top 10 have won two Grand Tours between them. But 7 monuments (3 different) with four different riders.

This really is the Tour for the rookies! And Valverde.

 

[jaylew]

I have more trouble coming up with reasonable scenarios where Kruijswijk or Buchmann win so for me it's mostly a 4 man race but I really don't have any idea which one of them it's going to be.

I'm surprised that Alaphilippe isn't getting more love in the poll. It's not like he totally cracked. He just paid for trying to go with Pinot and I think he'd have been ok if he'd have stayed in the Thomas group. I do get that we're expecting him to really crack at some point but if he races a bit smarter he could still win this. I mean he's still up by 1:35 and almost 2 minutes on PInot.

As for the others,

Is this really a new Pinot or will he have a Pinot day? Starting to lean towards the former but I'm not convinced just yet.
Bernal is relatively inexperienced, seems deferential and could possibly have to sacrifice at some point for Thomas.
I don't think Thomas can win unless his form is on the way up which is definitely possible.
Landa is strong but not strong enough and too far back

Anyway, I'm loving this. We have no idea who will win or even who will make up the podium with a week to go. I'm currently thinking something like this but I change my mind frequently.

Alaphilippe 20%
Pinot 25%
Bernal 25%
Thomas 15%
Someone else 15%