Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 7: Vierzon – Le Creusot, 249.1 km

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

Sagan in the break? Is that a crazy thought?

 

[Leinster]

Like Alaphilippe?
He never cared. He races on sensations. This stage has Ala all written over it.

Well if he does, we'll know for a bit more certain that he doesn't care about Saturday, or Sunday.

 

[Breezy1985]

Like Alaphilippe?
He never cared. He races on sensations. This stage has Ala all written over it.

Not sure how it's relevant to what I said but I think he could gain time here if he wants to. Not sure he will win as I think the break have it

 

[hayneplane]

Sagan in the break? Is that a crazy thought?

The way the race has gone so far he needs to hit a few breaks in the hilly and mountainous days to stand a chance of Green in Paris.

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

The way the race has gone so far he needs to hit a few breaks in the hilly and mountainous days to stand a chance of Green in Paris.

Indeed that's his hope, besides obviously Cav going OTL. I think the conditions are there: the stage begins with a long flat section rather than with climbs, there is an intermediate sprint he can go for, and he's shown recently he climbs well in the break (cue that one Giro stage). Maybe the last climb is a little too hard though.

Of course the peloton may pace harder if he manages to get in the break, it depends a lot on how Quickstep, Alpecin and a couple of other teams like Ineos and JV decide to race this thing (which may be either the most exciting stage in the Tour or a snoozer).

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'm really looking forward to this one. Stage win, yellow and polka dots are all in play here. One thing is certain, and that is that Van der Poel will be in the break. I expect a major fight to get into the break, and riders like Colbrelli, Sagan and Matthews should fancy this one as well. Can't wait!

 

[Leinster]

Sagan in the break? Is that a crazy thought?

2015-2017 Sagan, I'd say this stage was meant for him. In 2021, I can't see him getting away without there being someone on board who is a better climber.

This terrain has Mike Woods/Dan Martin written all over it, and they're back out at 12-14 minutes down. I'd expect ISN to be trying very hard to get one or other of them into the break/not let the break go without them, and whichever one doesn't make it to stay with the GC group and try from there.
Barguil is even farther back, so Arkea don't have the same either/or question with him and Quintana.

 

[Escarabajo]

Not sure how it's relevant to what I said but I think he could gain time here if he wants to. Not sure he will win as I think the break have it

No relevance, I quoted the wrong post! , sorry.
It was still your post 2 up. You quoted mentioned something like no GC battle, small group to the finish. But if you consider Ala GC relevant I just don't think that he is going to wait. IMHO.

 

[will-10]

Sagan will try to be in the break for sure but he hasn't had the best strike rate in that regard since last year's Tour + 2x Giros. Plenty of hits but often marked out or missed the right one.

He is still my favourite for green as there's a couple of mountain stages where the time cut will be tough to make for Cav, IMO

 

[Summoned]

Will be curious to see if DQ try to keep Sagan from getting in a break, assuming he even tries. If they do, says they think it is possible Cavendish can get to Paris and hold the green jersey. And, as an added bonus, if this results in a break that does not gain significant time and is caught by the leaders, that could mean bonus seconds available for Ala if he is up to it.

 

[movingtarget]

Interesting stage. Break should take it.

 

[Andre]

I had picked Roglic to win this before Le Tour started...so I'll still go with him for the win.

 

[hfer07]

Julian Alaphilippe for the win

 

[Bolder]

Julian Alaphilippe for the win

He's going to try, but there's the problem that if he gives his all today, he'll be dropped for sure in the mountains. This is a hard stage and to win it out of anything other than a reduced sprint is going to take a lot of effort. If he wants a top GC placing (i.e. top 5) he'll just ride to maintain position today.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Half the peloton wants to be in the break today.
Most will not be allowed to go, though. Hard and long day ahead.

 

[Leinster]

I had picked Roglic to win this before Le Tour started...so I'll still go with him for the win.

I think it’s a lot less likely with a banged up JV squad, and a banged up Roglic.

 

[tobydawq]

It will be interesting to see whether BikeExchange and Bahrain want to keep things together. It's a tough task considering the length of the stage but the flat start doesn't make it entirely implausible that not a very strong group will get away.

 

[glassmoon]

That can only happen where a stage also has the potential to thrill.

Exactly!

 

[Cookster15]

249km might be the longest stage for 21 years but I still remember vividly Fabio Roscioli winning a 280km stage by 7 minutes in a long solo breakaway in 1993. Those were the days .

As for this stage I have no idea. If there is GC action then that will be a bonus.

 

[Earns1985]

Hard fight for the breakaway, so an interesting first hour..

 

[danielovichdk2]

Magnus Cort to take this one.

 

[muppetkokken]

I just want a Good Bike Race without any injuries.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

This could be absolutely anything. Only thing for sure is there's gonna be a massive punch up to get in the break.

Most likely scenario - Flat start, so after much skirmishing, a bunch of strong rouleurs eventually get away, and cos there's nothing too steep towards the end, they stay away, but AF can control enough to keep VdP in yellow.

Other likely scenario - VdP gets into the break, UAE are happy with everyone in the break, all the GC faves roll in together.

Possible scenario - VdP gets in the break, so sensing a chance to weaken UAE, a fringe GC contender makes it there also, and there's no energy left to chase at that point. Maybe a Buchmann or O'Connor or Bilbao. Really spicy would be Porte or Vingegaard. UAE have to burn matches to control, and Pog gets isolated late on.

Best scenario - Break takes for ever to get away, small break eventually goes with Colbrelli, Bling or Sagan, QS decide it's close enough and worth the effort to control until the sprint, and then we hit the hills soon after with either no break, or a break close enough to bridge, and with UAE and AF already severely weakened from trying to control, all hell breaks loose.

 

[King Of Molehill]

My bet is on a solo break to win, one of the stronger classics riders like Jasper Stuyven

 

[saganftw]

The way the race has gone so far he needs to hit a few breaks in the hilly and mountainous days to stand a chance of Green in Paris.

zero chance of that, all the intermediate sprints have been strategically placed in first 3rd of stages to make sure we dont have any fun with green jersey in breaks, after 7 wins ASO decided to put a foot up his ass for good