Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 14: Annemasse - Morzine, 151.8k

[Devil's Elbow]

The hardest stage of the second week is characterised by a run-in with very little flat before a classic finale.

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The route
After starting from Annemasse, birthplace of 2015 WCTT bronze medalist Jérôme Coppel as well as the Paret-Peintre brothers, the route starts to head uphill almost immediately as the riders take on the easiest of the day’s categorised climbs, Col de Saxel.

This is the first of four climbs chaining directly into each other, and the next two are both (comparatively easy) cat. 1s. The first of these is Col de Cou.

It is followed by the shorter, but steeper Col du Feu.

The final climb of this quartet, Col de Jambaz, is the easiest, and features an intermediate sprint rather than KOM points. They only do the final 7.9 kilometres.

After some time for recuperation on a prolonged downhill false flat, the going gets harder still with Col de la Ramaz.

Following the day’s only valley section, it is time for probably the most classic descent finish of the Tour. Its two most recent outings are not fondly remembered: first the notorious Landis raid in 2006, then one of the worst final mountain stages of all time in 2016. A more positive chapter is overdue here, and if this Tour won’t deliver, then I don’t know which one will.

The descent and run-in to the finish should hold no secrets for anyone.

Final kilometres

 

[Monte Serra]

Its two most recent outings are not fondly remembered: first the notorious Landis raid in 2006

I actually do fondly remember the Landis raid. Legendary stuff.

 

[Poursuivant]

Jumbo to go for the kill

 

[Didinho]

Breakaway day.
Hoping for a great battle again in the peloton. Pidcock to go in the downhill and gaining places.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Looks like there will be an intense tailwind on Ramaz and Joux Plane.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

The finish sounds like a very hot place, so Pogačar will probably lose the sprint this time around.

 

[SafeBet]

Landa to pull a Landis.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Landa to pull a Landis.

He's more likely to be about to do a Landis, when the team tells him he has to wait for Bilbao.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Both Yates and Rodriquez to attack on Ramaz, Jumbo to panic, Pog to drop Vinge at the top of Joux, Vinge to make it back on the descent, Pog to win the stage, and posters to say it wasn’t hard enough for Vinge’s “superior recovery” or hot enough.

 

[Gigs_98]

My guess is that this time Pog and Vingegaard will finish with the same time. But Pog needs to be really alert on that final descent.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Both Yates and Rodriquez to attack on Ramaz, Jumbo to panic, Pog to drop Vinge at the top of Joux, Vinge to make it back on the descent, Pog to win the stage, and posters to say it wasn’t hard enough for Vinge’s “superior recovery” or hot enough.

Both Yates or one Yates? I just realised they are literally only one second apart on GC. What a twin ride so far!

 

[theyoungest]

Both Yates and Rodriquez to attack on Ramaz, Jumbo to panic, Pog to drop Vinge at the top of Joux, Vinge to make it back on the descent, Pog to win the stage, and posters to say it wasn’t hard enough for Vinge’s “superior recovery” or hot enough.

Sure they'll panic... both of them are 5 minutes back, they couldn't care less.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Sure they'll panic... both of them are 5 minutes back, they couldn't care less.

Vingegaar reacted to A. Yates a few days ago like 90k(?) to go. So who know's how they'll react. It's true they don't have to really fear them on GC though and it would be unwise to panic, but we've seen a lot of questionable decisions during this tour by many teams.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Some random break to take it, and Kuss to destroy the last 6 km of Joux Plane. Whos strongest, I dont really know, but will be interesting.

 

[DNP-Old]

Vingegaar reacted to A. Yates a few days ago like 90k(?) to go. So who know's how they'll react. It's true they don't have to really fear them on GC though and it would be unwise to panic, but we've seen a lot of questionable decisions during this tour by many teams.

Vingegaard even started responding to Trentin joining moves yesterday.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Sure they'll panic... both of them are 5 minutes back, they couldn't care less.

Have you been missing how panicked Jumbo have looked by responding to everything, always looking over their shoulder, and Vinge climbing out of the saddle far more than usual?

 

[Rackham]

Some random break to take it, and Kuss to destroy the last 6 km of Joux Plane. Whos strongest, I dont really know, but will be interesting.

Jumbo to send Kuss up the road in a break & the gap reaches 10 minutes.

Kuss wins the stage, Pog drops Vingegaard on Joux Plane but Kuss takes yellow with one minute on Pog & two on Vingegaard.

I like the scenario.

 

[Boehmand]

2nd most important stage of the Tour.

Both UAE and JV will put guys (plural) in the break, because with even the slightest hint of weakness from one captain on Ramaz, the other one will pounce already there, so they both want guys out in front as an offensive and as a defensive measure.

If Bora are smart they will do the same, or they will end up pulling the peloton all day, and they would leave Ineos to do their very favourite thing - pulling the peloton.

I think all the best climbers below top 10 on GC are eyeing this one, and that the early break will get a 5-7 minute+ gap, with guys like Gall, Landa, Madouas, O'Connor, Guerreiro, Skjelmose, Barguil, Woods and Alaphilippe in the mix,

Despite all that the most realistic scenario to me is, that the GC action will be fairly sedate until the start of Joux Plane, where JV will drill it hard from the bottom to try and isolate Pogacar, and then hope Vingegaard can gap him in the last 5 K of the climb, with Van Aert waiting at the top to help on the plateau and the descent.

In the end I see Pogacar being able to stay with Vingegaard on Joux Plane, but losing 10-15 seconds on the descent to the line

 

[nightowl]

It’ll never happen but it might not be the worst idea for UAE to smash the first 80km so that Jumbo are tired and can’t set a super high pace on Joux Plane, which is much better for a Pog attack. Otherwise if Jumbo can get their mountain train fresh and in order then UAE will just all insta-drop anyway like on Tourmalet

 

[ashhutch1997]

I actually do fondly remember the Landis raid. Legendary stuff.

Honestly one of the greatest stages I've ever seen.

 

[Extinction]

UAE have spent a lot recently, now we'll see how their constancy goes. Pog has turned the tables, has Vingeggard on the ropes, but can he land the knockout punch? Jumbo has been rocked, but they are strong and shall certainly fight on. But does Vingeggard now have a complex? He's been bossed around by the Slovenian. He has got to say "I've been listening to you. Now you gotta listen to me!"

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Key stage of the 2nd week (BTW I love the Tour balanced route, not some backloaded sh*t). Tomorrow JV will have to make the race hard from Ramaz on to give Vinge a good shot on Joux Plane. But if they don't attack then Pogacar will do it on the last climb and I'm not sure if Vinge will be able to follow then. I think this could even be the decisive stage.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

Jumbo to send Kuss up the road in a break & the gap reaches 10 minutes.

Kuss wins the stage, Pog drops Vingegaard on Joux Plane but Kuss takes yellow with one minute on Pog & two on Vingegaard.

I like the scenario.

Libertine Seguros would probably jump on the podium and strangle Kuss while they give him the jersey if that happens

 

[Extinction]

Key stage of the 2nd week (BTW I love the Tour balanced route, not some backloaded sh*t). Tomorrow JV will have to make the race hard from Ramaz on to give Vinge a good shot on Joux Plane. But if they don't attack then Pogacar will do it on the last climb and I'm not sure if Vinge will be able to follow then. I think this could even be the decisive stage.

This is a dig at the Giro, but had Remco not gotten Covid it could have been a most sensational GT! Win or lose!

 

[titan31]

I actually do fondly remember the Landis raid. Legendary stuff.

One of my favourite stages ever. Aftermath obviously not great but that stage was great