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Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 8: Libourne - Limoges, 200.7k

The second weekend opens with a stage that both sprinters and puncheurs will be looking forward to.

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Map
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The route
The start is in Libourne, for the second time in three years after the final TT in 2021. From there, the riders head northeast, without many changes in direction or elevation, into the Périgord, land of truffles and (mostly to the east of where we pass today) prehistoric remains. This section also contains the intermediate sprint in Tocane-Saint-Apre.
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From here, the roads continue to be flattish as the route winds through valleys and over small ridges, before climbing onto the plateaus of the Limousin. This point is marked by the Côte de Champs-Romain, a cat. 3.
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The roads are a bit hillier here, but it is only inside the final 20 kilometres that they become worthy of categorisation again. Neither Côte de Masmont nor Côte de Condat-sur-Vienne are as steep as the hills where Jumbo shelled the peloton in Paris-Nice and the Tour last year, but the fact that they back into each other increases the chances of making an attack that sticks.
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From the latter climb, the roads trend downhill until we reach the valley of the Vienne. By this point, we are well inside the finish host of the day, the cathedral city of Limoges, but there is still one last hill to deal with, which is the one atop which the finish is located.

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Final kilometres
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An entirely different run-in from the one used in 2016, when Kittel beat Coquard by millimetres, and it's a technical one. Eespecially between 4.5k and 2.5k to go, there are places where things could get hairy. After the slightest of rises, things kick off with this roundabout just inside the final 5 kilometres. The right side is slightly shorter.
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After the roundabout, the road goes back to being a downhill false-flat, which is an issue given that the roadbook makes clear that the traffic islands on it will not be removed.
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There is another roundabout further down this road, but as it isn't marked on the map and consists of easily-removable road furniture, I presume it will be adjusted for the race. Just after this point, the false flat abruptly ends at this 180-degree turn, tighter than the one on Monday's stage.
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There is another right-hand turn just after this onto the bridge over the Vienne, then a big narrowing (unless they remove a lot of infrastructure) just after it as the riders turn right.
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The next 1.5 kilometres follow the river and are flat and easy, before the riders take a left at the flamme rouge. The road furniture on the road they turn onto should be removed here, of course.
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At 800 metres to go, the riders turn left one last time. As you can see, it's kind of a turn in two parts.
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Here the road kicks up in earnest, but only at a little over 4% on average, and it isn't irregular. At about 60-70 metres from the line, the gradient somewhat tapers off.
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Which teams will want to ride for Philipsen?
Break win possible in my opinion.
Lol people always ride on sprint stages even if they don't have a great chance. Plus a number of sprinters will fancy this much more than a flat sprint. Girmay, Pedersen, Coquard, Van Aert will all fancy this one much more.

I'm also pretty sure I'd rather take MvdP here than Philipsen.
 
Philipsen, Wout, Biniam, Pedersen, Coquard, Mathieu even?...

I hope some strong riders get up the road. Lots of the more pure sprint teams should go all in on a break, riders like Asgreen, Campenaerts, some GreenEdge blokes and what not. If you can't beat Philipsen in flat sprints, whats the point then?
 
Van der Poel goes early.
Pogacar follows.
Vingo has to follow as well.

Chaos.

Youre probably memeing, but that would rank in the top 25 most aggresive things Pogacar has done (im not arguing it has the slighest chance of working though). I do wonder though how mentally exhausting that is as his rival. 2days ago Vingegaard was more or less visably panicking when Pogacar briefly bridged to the break and I recall that also happening atleast 2 times in last years tour
 
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Girmay looks to find his legs. Now only needs some space. This finish suits him very well. Van Aert will take his chances again. Curious if Mathieu will attack on one of the hills and keep Philipsen with Rickaert, or they keep on doing the choo-choo leadout.
 
Borderline stage, between being for the more "climby" sprinters, like Philipsen, Pedersen, Girmay and Van Aert, or for puncheurs like MvdP, Kragh, Alaphilippe and Cosnefroy. And I also think it is a stage the breakaway artists have eyed, like Cort, Boassen Hagen, Campenaerts, Craddock, Houle, Asgreen, etc.

It could make for a completely chaotic stage with competing strategies from all teams but the GC teams (who will chill all day), depending on what teams make it into the break.

I think we will see a very strong break forming after the intermediate sprint, including many of the riders mentioned, and I think the intermediate sprint will look different to any sprint previously, because a lot of riders will suspect the sprinters pushing on after the sprint, and want to be along for the ride.
 
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So how will TJV approach this? All in to protect Vingegaard and let van Aert to his thing, or give van Aert some support by drilling hard over the last climbs to tire out Philipsen? These are not necessarily mutually excluded of course.

Will Pog just follow Vingegaard and try to save the legs for sunday? Or will he try to latch on if for example VDP attacks? A chaotic finale should be to Pog's benefit.