Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 8: Libourne - Limoges, 200.7k

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Well it went OK for Cav on likewise ramp in 2011, didn't it?

 

[jono]

Bini is looking good; I think he's going to take this one!

I'm no expert on tomorrow's stage profile, but I'd be surprised if it found the exact sweet spot where it was tough enough to eliminate a good climbing and classics sprinter like Philipsen, but easy enough that one might favor Bini over MVDP or WVA.

That said, a Girmay win would be great for him and the Tour.

 

[Panda Claws]

Didn't Ghirmay already school MVDP once at the Giro?

 

[jono]

Didn't Ghirmay already school MVDP once at the Giro?

Indeed, and I don't know how the two stages compare for difficulty. Though it's worth noting that 2022 MVDP, even at the Giro, was a shadow of his 2023 self, while Girmay hasn't really reached his levels of last year.

 

[Anderis]

If this is what the final kilometer looks like, to me it looks more like puncheur territory than sprinter territory.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If this is what the final kilometer looks like, to me it looks more like puncheur territory than sprinter territory.

Pog smash then.

 

[Nick2413]

With that incline at the end if the group is reduced could actually be a Pog chance. Going with VdP unless he spends too much energy keeping Philipsen afloat.

 

[Tonton]

Going to Poupouland...

ASO knows who Matthieu is; it would be beautiful for him to win for the people there, they have adopted him. More could have been done from a design perspective to cater to MVP's skills, but it's OK. A top Matthieu can win this. And imagine the public at the start of the following stage, in Poupoutown. The Grandmas are going to be there.

Allez Matthieu!!!

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Keep in mind that the 2016 finish in this very city was 550 metres at 4.9%, for a total elevation gain of 27 metres. This time we have 36 metres of elevation gain, so a third more, but the average gradient is also a little lower this time. If the former ramp was easy enough for Marcel Kittel to win on it, then I don't see how this one is going to be too hard for most of the sprinters as long as their legs don't get killed by the cat. 4s.

Tl;dr: there is no way Pogacar finishes in the top-3 assuming most of the sprinters are there.

 

[Tim Cahill]

It looks like a Roglic Vuelta stage finish where everyone thinks its a sprinter stage so he's about 6th favourite and ends up winning against Enric Mas and Dan Martin. I really am feeling smallish group or breakaway win, not sure who would chase because if it's 800m at 4-5% at the end then I don't think any of the sprinter teams stand a chance, Jumbo-Visma surely aren't chasing for Van Aert because they have bigger days ahead, Alpecin might for VdP who I think would be favourite here but they could also fancy a day off with their 3 wins already, maybe Intermarche?

Magnus Cort from a breakaway maybe but really not sure of his form here, Pedersen looks a bit tired from the Giro.

The roads are very uneven around the finish, it's going to be basically impossible to keep together fully.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It looks like a Roglic Vuelta stage finish where everyone thinks its a sprinter stage so he's about 6th favourite and ends up winning against Enric Mas and Dan Martin. I really am feeling smallish group or breakaway win, not sure who would chase because if it's 800m at 4-5% at the end then I don't think any of the sprinter teams stand a chance, Jumbo-Visma surely aren't chasing for Van Aert because they have bigger days ahead, Alpecin might for VdP who I think would be favourite here but they could also fancy a day off with their 3 wins already, maybe Intermarche?

Magnus Cort from a breakaway maybe but really not sure of his form here, Pedersen looks a bit tired from the Giro.

This is the easiest finish Roglic has won on at the Vuelta. Not comparable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1321882956110192644

And a Philipsen who was really only a second-tier sprinter at that point still managed ninth there...

 

[Tim Cahill]

This is the easiest finish Roglic has won on at the Vuelta. Not comparable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1321882956110192644

And a Philipsen who was really only a second-tier sprinter at that point still managed ninth there...

I think Catalunya stage 1 finish from this year which he won with Evenepoel 2nd was of a similar nature iirc, lesser competition granted (Hayter, Coquard) but that aside I think some of the undulations here just look like they're begging for quite aggressive racing, Limoges just looks like a bit of a pain in the ass to ride into tbh, I think Armstrong won from a break on these roads in his earlier days. Philipsen has the physical capability and form but I think it would depend on whether he can make it in reasonable position and whether Alpecin take the responsibility, they have occasionally left it to other teams to take up after winning (e.g Napoli in the Giro).

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I think Catalunya stage 1 finish from this year which he won with Evenepoel 2nd was of a similar nature iirc, lesser competition granted (Hayter, Coquard) but that aside I think some of the undulations here just look like they're begging for quite aggressive racing, Limoges just looks like a bit of a pain in the ass to ride into tbh, I think Armstrong won from a break on these roads in his earlier days. Philipsen has the physical capability and form but I think it would depend on whether he can make it in reasonable position and whether Alpecin take the responsibility, they have occasionally left it to other teams to take up after winning (e.g Napoli in the Giro).

That finish was actually quite a bit harder - main sections of 620m at 5.6% versus 720m at 4.4%. Also, with all due respect, Schelling and Van Gils were third and fourth, that is laughable competition compared to what you get at the Tour.

Final kilometre:

 

[Boehmand]

If this is what the final kilometer looks like, to me it looks more like puncheur territory than sprinter territory.

But that's because 4 % is shown as 40 % graphically

In reality, a 6-700 M 4-5 % finish is where people like Girmay, Pedersen, MvdP and WvA usually shine, because the "true" sprinters - and their trains - run out of steam too early on the gradient, so it becomes more about raw power than top speed.

And because the normal trains will struggle, guys like Alaphilippe, Cosnefroy, Cort, Pidcock, Mohoric, Bettiol, Aranburu, etc. are also a possibility, if they can use the climb 5 K from the finish to create a gap of just 1-200 meters before the last 6-700 M uphill sprint.

 

[Lequack]

Why is Philipsen wearing a Bora jersey?

 

[dobrien]

Indeed, and I don't know how the two stages compare for difficulty. Though it's worth noting that 2022 MVDP, even at the Giro, was a shadow of his 2023 self, while Girmay hasn't really reached his levels of last year.

I don't know, I just have a gut feeling he's coming good at the right time. Today wasn't really a day for him but he was right there in the mix; I think if he plays his cards right tomorrow he's in with as good a shout as anyone. I hope so at least!

 

[dobrien]

Why is Philipsen wearing a Bora jersey?

It is sad really; no one was ever in doubt as to who the green jersey was.... don't know what they were thinking with this one. Hope it is short-lived..

 

[saunaking]

You guys crazy.
OBVIOUSLY roofus or whatever his name is, the alpecin director is telling netflix how frikin cool it would be
to have JASPER THE DISASTER lead out MVDP on this one as payback for the last 3

 

[SHAD0W93]

Well it went OK for Cav on likewise ramp in 2011, didn't it?

Cav looked like he almost died after that stage though a win is a win as they say.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Why is Philipsen wearing a Bora jersey?

I have a theory. They thought Cav was going to end in green at some point so made it British racing green for the occasion. Alas, the person whose idea it was doesn't actually watch cycling.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Fascinating stage this (in terms of the winner). Let's talk more about that I reckon.

I think that Phillipsen has a good chance, but will Alpecin race for him? If they race for MVDP and he isn't quite quick enough, then it opens the door for someone like Ewan. Obvious chance for a breakaway too, any number of candidates there. Then you have a possible late attack succeeding also, your Lafay, Soren Kragh Anderson, Mohoric, Bettiol types. MVDP's best chance might be a late attack, but will he wait for the sprint and/or ride for Phillipsen? And what tactic will WVA employ? This stage is doing my head in.

 

[SafeBet]

I truly don't think Alpecin is riding for Philipsen here, after all the work Van der Poel has done in the previous stages and VdP himself telling this stage is his target.
Btw Bettiol has also stated this is a good stage for him.

 

[ZamlinusYoutubeious]

The second weekend opens with a stage that both sprinters and puncheurs will be looking forward to.

Profile

Map

The route
The start is in Libourne, for the second time in three years after the final TT in 2021. From there, the riders head northeast, without many changes in direction or elevation, into the Périgord, land of truffles and (mostly to the east of where we pass today) prehistoric remains. This section also contains the intermediate sprint in Tocane-Saint-Apre.

From here, the roads continue to be flattish as the route winds through valleys and over small ridges, before climbing onto the plateaus of the Limousin. This point is marked by the Côte de Champs-Romain, a cat. 3.

The roads are a bit hillier here, but it is only inside the final 20 kilometres that they become worthy of categorisation again. Neither Côte de Masmont nor Côte de Condat-sur-Vienne are as steep as the hills where Jumbo shelled the peloton in Paris-Nice and the Tour last year, but the fact that they back into each other increases the chances of making an attack that sticks.

From the latter climb, the roads trend downhill until we reach the valley of the Vienne. By this point, we are well inside the finish host of the day, the cathedral city of Limoges, but there is still one last hill to deal with, which is the one atop which the finish is located.

Final kilometres

An entirely different run-in from the one used in 2016, when Kittel beat Coquard by millimetres, and it's a technical one. Eespecially between 4.5k and 2.5k to go, there are places where things could get hairy. After the slightest of rises, things kick off with this roundabout just inside the final 5 kilometres. The right side is slightly shorter.

After the roundabout, the road goes back to being a downhill false-flat, which is an issue given that the roadbook makes clear that the traffic islands on it will not be removed.

There is another roundabout further down this road, but as it isn't marked on the map and consists of easily-removable road furniture, I presume it will be adjusted for the race. Just after this point, the false flat abruptly ends at this 180-degree turn, tighter than the one on Monday's stage.

There is another right-hand turn just after this onto the bridge over the Vienne, then a big narrowing (unless they remove a lot of infrastructure) just after it as the riders turn right.

The next 1.5 kilometres follow the river and are flat and easy, before the riders take a left at the flamme rouge. The road furniture on the road they turn onto should be removed here, of course.

At 800 metres to go, the riders turn left one last time. As you can see, it's kind of a turn in two parts.

Here the road kicks up in earnest, but only at a little over 4% on average, and it isn't irregular. At about 60-70 metres from the line, the gradient somewhat tapers off.

Good OP. Your op are always good

 

[gregrowlerson]

The question that we really need to be asking is, "Are these climbs too hard for MVDP?"

@Red Rick

 

[Jagartrott]

How is that nation bashing? I get the part about the SUVs, SUVs are a real problem in Europe as well.

But how is having a cheerful dig at american nationalism nation bashing?

He should take an example of Belgians. Making fun and criticizing our own country is in our blood. It's what unites us. We are very proud not to be proud. So a bit of Belgium bashing is encouraged.

Unless it's criticism of Wout Van Aert. That is unacceptable, for obvious reasons.