Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 1: Florence (Firenze) - Rimini, 206.0k

[Gigs_98]

I think people expecting a 70 km raid by Pogacar, Remco or both in this or any other medium mountain stage are underestimating the difference between one day racing and stage racing. Maybe they could actually stay away from the chasers but for what? A stage win? The only reason to pull off such an effort in a GT is to gain a lot of time and while that kind of move might let you win a one day race by 2 minutes things would go very differently in a GT. There is no group 2 syndrom in a race where everyone rides for a top ten gc placement and even Pogacar and Evenepoel would not gain much time riding against a coalition of teams thinking they can finish in front of them on gc. Maybe once everyone has given up on beating Pogacar he alone could pull something like that off, but then whats the point if others have already given up anyway.

 

[KZD]

This will be in favour for Vingegaard as we have seen plenty of times that Pog is not his best in the heat. It's 32-34 celsius on saturday. Visma puts hammer down

I would very surprised if Visma puts the hammer down early in the Tour, they will likely wait for stage 14 when Vingegaard's favourite climbs come to put the hammer down. Besides if Van Aert is in decent shape, a slower tempo would help him and he could outsprint Pogačar in the end taking bonus seconds away from him.

Yes, Pogačar has shown some weakness in the past under hot conditons but those temperatures predicted are not even extreme and with the uncertainty surrounding Vingegaard's shape I think it will be UAE putting the hammer down instead to test Vingegaard and the rest. This hilly terrain is better for Pogačar anyway.

Having said that, I do think that being the first stage and with the last climb being easier and far from the finish we could see a Narvaez kind of figure managing to hold on and outsprinting everyone or escaping in the final kilometers and I think that rider will be Bettiol with Pogačar managing to take bonus.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I would very surprised if Visma puts the hammer down early in the Tour, they will likely wait for stage 14 when Vingegaard's favourite climbs come to put the hammer down. Besides if Van Aert is in decent shape, a slower tempo would help him and he could outsprint Pogačar in the end taking bonus seconds away from him.

Yes, Pogačar has shown some weakness in the past under hot conditons but those temperatures predicted are not even extreme and with the uncertainty surrounding Vingegaard's shape I think it will be UAE putting the hammer down instead to test Vingegaard and the rest. This hilly terrain is better for Pogačar anyway.

Having said that, I do think that being the first stage and with the last climb being easier and far from the finish we could see a Narvaez kind of figure managing to hold on and outsprinting everyone or escaping in the final kilometers and I think that rider will be Bettiol with Pogačar managing to take bonus.

Yup, even absolutely peak Vingo wouldnt be favoured vs Pog on stage 1. JV will have much better stages if the Dane is strong enough. UAE will put the hammer down on one or two stages out of first four. Stage one or two maybe more tactically, attacking with other guys (with Pog ready in reserve), stage 4 all in for Pog.

 

[Berniece]

Yup, even absolutely peak Vingo wouldnt be favoured vs Pog on stage 1. JV will have much better stages if the Dane is strong enough. UAE will put the hammer down on one or two stages out of first four. Stage one or two maybe more tactically, attacking with other guys (with Pog ready in reserve), stage 4 all in for Pog.

I really doubt UAE will push Almeida/Yates/Ayuso in the attack. I just don't think they dare to do it, in the case one of them would get too much time.

 

[Potomac]

The break makes it.
But it will take a lot of attacks and a long time for the break of the day to be selected.
It should be worth watching from the start just to see who gets in the break.
Italians will be determined to get it in it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I really doubt UAE will push Almeida/Yates/Ayuso in the attack. I just don't think they dare to do it, in the case one of them would get too much time.

Dont u think that those top level guys have ambitions to win a stage? I am sure they will be eager to attack on stage 1 or 2. Allowing them to do it helps with their personal ambitions and complicates it tactically for other teams. If they fail (or situation allows) then Pog himself may attack or bridge to one of them.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think people expecting a 70 km raid by Pogacar, Remco or both in this or any other medium mountain stage are underestimating the difference between one day racing and stage racing. Maybe they could actually stay away from the chasers but for what? A stage win? The only reason to pull off such an effort in a GT is to gain a lot of time and while that kind of move might let you win a one day race by 2 minutes things would go very differently in a GT. There is no group 2 syndrom in a race where everyone rides for a top ten gc placement and even Pogacar and Evenepoel would not gain much time riding against a coalition of teams thinking they can finish in front of them on gc. Maybe once everyone has given up on beating Pogacar he alone could pull something like that off, but then whats the point if others have already given up anyway.

Not 70, like i said, but 40? Let's say UAE push the stage, and that point only a group of 15 riders is left, no more domestiques. It's a hard, relatively long stage and some pure GC riders (unlike riders who also excel at one day racing) need some time to get the motor running... A lot would depend on who is still there and capable of actually doing something. Pog in '24 Giro form with Evenepoel in '22 Vuelta form and they take 2 minutes.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Not 70, like i said, but 40? Let's say UAE push the stage, and that point only a group of 15 riders is left, no more domestiques. It's a hard, relatively long stage and some pure GC riders (unlike riders who also excel at one day racing) need some time to get the motor running... A lot would depend on who is still there and capable of actually doing something. Pog in '24 Giro form with Evenepoel in '22 Vuelta form and they take 2 minutes.

Definitely such an action would be a highlight of the race! I am secretly counting on it: two Merckx-es attacking the group, which is already too weakened to organize a successful chase!

 

[Berniece]

Dont u think that those top level guys have ambitions to win a stage? I am sure they will be eager to attack on stage 1 or 2. Allowing them to do it helps with their personal ambitions and complicates it tactically for other teams. If they fail (or situation allows) then Pog himself may attack or bridge to one of them.

Yeah they probably have those ambitions, I'm just not sure that you should play that card on day 1. Isn't it easier to play once Pogacar already has a lead of 4-5minutes, and that if they attack they don't take the yellow jersey on their shoulders which means Pogacar is in a more difficult position.

 

[perico]

Bora and Visma will 100% play it defensively. Roglic has never been the guy to risk much, you really think he's going to expose himself on a stage like this? No chance. Visma are in shambles and will be happy if they get through without losing time.
UAE will be the team to light it up. In theory they should go with Yates/Ayuso first but I'm pretty sure they'll just set up a train for Pogacar. They've never been a team that has played the second leader strategy card a lot and pretty sure Pog will demand a sole leadout strategy for him.
Remco is the big X factor. He doesn't have a team to make the race hard but the style of the stage should suit him a lot. I hope the team realizes that and has him race aggressively these first few days, if they're serious about a stage win and top 5 GC it's better to act early and play to his strength than wait for later where the stages suit him less. I have a bad feeling that they'll want to play it save tho.

Wasn’t Yates the only UAE rider to wear yellow last year after attacking on Stage 1?

 

[Didinho]

Remco won’t do anything untill stage 4. And he’s also just gonna follow the others, unless there’s a chance to gain time on Vingo or so.
Especially not the first stage, with the first warm race day for him. On the Belgian NC a lot op riders were suffering from it so I’m just hoping he can stay close in GC untill the TT. He knows he got to save energy as much as possible.
Some flat stages just before a mountain stage. If he’s got his Vuelta legs I can see him have a really good first 2 weeks. Maybe even yellow after the TT.

The last week will be brutal. I’m (not) ready to get hurt again.

 

[svit]

It will be an all-out attack by the Slovenians eg. Pog and Rog ( = UAE and BORA) to test the GC field. The first stage will be a bloodbath. Same with stage 2 and stage 4. After the first couple of stages, there will be enough "flat" stages where GC teams can rest their domestiques and where the sprinter teams can shine.

I predict that the Tour will start with a bang, then we will have many boring stages until last week's mountains.

 

[Filippo_3467]

Probably it won't be that offensive. One thing I could see happening is a big group without any of the big guns get's away in the middle of the stage and too many teams are represented so that the chase isn't strong enough to catch them. So a Soler, Benoot, Sobbrero, Lapeira, Lazkano breakaway. Then it would be really hard to bring the groups back together.

 

[Berniece]

It will be an all-out attack by the Slovenians eg. Pog and Rog ( = UAE and BORA) to test the GC field. The first stage will be a bloodbath. Same with stage 2 and stage 4. After the first couple of stages, there will be enough "flat" stages where GC teams can rest their domestiques and where the sprinter teams can shine.

I predict that the Tour will start with a bang, then we will have many boring stages until last week's mountains.

We've got a gravel stage, TT and a stage with possible echelons before stage 14. So not so boring as you think

 

[Amazinmets87]

We've got a gravel stage, TT and a stage with possible echelons before stage 14. So not so boring as you think

Stage 11 is a GC day for sure.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Wasn’t Yates the only UAE rider to wear yellow last year after attacking on Stage 1?

He did, but only after giving a leadout for Pog and it all coming back together with various rolling attacks to follow. Yates didn't even properly attack, he just went to the front and no one picked his wheel before his brother joined him. Pogacar is quite race intelligent so told him through the radio to keep going but it wasn't planned. He also immidiately said after the stage from now on everything would be for Pogacar.
I'm not saying there isn't a race scenario where one of Yates or Ayuso find themselves in a move ahead and are given the green light but I'm pretty sure UAE won't plan that and if they race aggressively it will be a move like Pogacar on Foscagno.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think Pogacar is up for it on stage 1, but Evenepoel is probably in “save energy mode” for as long as possible.

Apparently he also said this in other words to the press. Taking it easy the first week, mostly wants to follow so he can start stage 14 close to the top of the GC, and have more energy in the third week.

He also said he would look at the situation. If he sees the others around him suffering, is feeling quite good himself, and Pogacar attacks... what is he going to do? There are no high mountains in this stage, only relatively short climbs. I think it would be silly not to go with Pogacar, if he feels good.

He basically said the same about the '22 Vuelta and then he blew up the race in week 1.

 

[Berniece]

He also said he would look at the situation. If he sees the others around him suffering, is feeling quite good himself, and Pogacar attacks... what is he going to do? There are no high mountains in this stage, only relatively short climbs. I think it would be silly not to go with Pogacar, if he feels good.

He basically said the same about the '22 Vuelta and then he blew up the race in week 1.

Sure, would love to see it, but I doubt even Pogacar wants to go for it. The effort for the possible gains is too big, I think they rather save their strength for stage 2 and 4.

 

[Rob5091]

I think people need to remember this is stage 1 of a 3 week race and it's going to be really hot. The tempo is always high on stage 1 so that alone should make it interesting.

 

[Nick2413]

The anticipation is high. After hopelessness from the disaster in Itzulia we somehow have all top 4 starting with at least 3 of them looking good and major suspense surrounding Vingegaard’s condition. Stage 1 could be a nothingburger or a firestorm. After such a one sided first half of the season a candle has finally been lit with the hopes of the grand spectacle we’ve all been so yearning for.

 

[Tim Cahill]

30 man reduced group, Van Gils win. Pogacar at 9/4 is absolutely comical, I suppose he has a little chance because his sprint from a reduced group is pretty good but those odds are based on fan expectation/hysteria and nothing else. People like Van Aert, Matthews, maybe even Lapeira should make it.

There are far too many fresh riders in the form of their lives pulling back attacks for anything serious to happen, very long downhill/flat too

It will still be great to watch the riders go through, these opening stages are all about the big crowds and the atmosphere, hopefully some good scenery too.

 

[Potomac]

I'm tired of waiting.
Can't we just start the tour now?

 

[Poursuivant]

I think Jonas will be more than fine here.

Simon Yates to slip away on the descent and take MJ.

 

[Escarabajo]

I think people expecting a 70 km raid by Pogacar, Remco or both in this or any other medium mountain stage are underestimating the difference between one day racing and stage racing. Maybe they could actually stay away from the chasers but for what? A stage win? The only reason to pull off such an effort in a GT is to gain a lot of time and while that kind of move might let you win a one day race by 2 minutes things would go very differently in a GT. There is no group 2 syndrom in a race where everyone rides for a top ten gc placement and even Pogacar and Evenepoel would not gain much time riding against a coalition of teams thinking they can finish in front of them on gc. Maybe once everyone has given up on beating Pogacar he alone could pull something like that off, but then whats the point if others have already given up anyway.

You're right; it would be crazy to do that. However, some might think that UAE could set a very high pace or make the race extremely tough from the start to challenge Jonas. Not attempting to test his legs would be a missed opportunity.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Think we aren’t going to see something too crazy here. If the climbs were a little closer I suppose it would’ve been better but it is stage 1 of the Tour. Rarely is it overly excruciating.