Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 16 16/7 Gruissan - Nîmes, 188.6k

[Devil's Elbow]

Aside from the extent to which Girmay is banged up, the other big question mark is stage 18. If Philipsen can get into the break there while Girmay misses out (and whichever break goes up the road will be uncontrollable for Intermarché), winning the intermediate + minor position at the finish is enough to close the gap.

Tomorrow also looks a lot different now given that Alpecin and Intermarché will be policing moves incredibly heavily.

 

[search]

there's another early intermediate sprint on Friday. Could come down to that one, if Philipsen makes up a couple of points tomorrow.

 

[RobertCrawley]

No breakaway will be allowed tomorrow. This will play out perfect into Pogacar's hands.

It looks like a long, hot haul all day up to the mountain. Look for Visma to make it as hard as they can and try one more time to break Tadej.

 

[yaco]

Gotta say that Jayco's performances in the flat sprint stages have been deplorable. They only got Groenewegen to the final two times out of 6. One time, Groenewegen outsprinted Philipsen and the other time he was blocked on the barriers and could have just about won. Yet in the Giro with an allegedly inferior sprint train, the team got Ewan to the final five times out of 7, but unfortunately Ewan was not good enough.

 

[Netserk]

Man I really really hope Bini isn't hurt. If he can just stick to Philipsens wheel over the next few stages he's gonna win green anyway but if he's injured he'll probably lose the jersey.

If he can make the time cuts, his team can help him out a lot. There are 3 intermediate sprints in play for Philipsen, one of them after some climbs. They need to use the whole team to mark Philipsen and close all moves he follows tomorrow. If the break sails without him, it's pretty much over.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It looks like a long, hot haul all day up to the mountain. Look for Visma to make it as hard as they can and try one more time to break Tadej.

The first three-quarters of the stage being flat is supposed to tire any GC rider, let alone Pogacar, out?

 

[pihi42]

Please someone correct me: all GC riders get the same time because they were behind Girmay when he crashed?

 

[RobertCrawley]

The first three-quarters of the stage being flat is supposed to tire any GC rider, let alone Pogacar, out?

It's a false flat. Should be interesting.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Gotta say that Jayco's performances in the flat sprint stages have been deplorable. They only got Groenewegen to the final two times out of 6. One time, Groenewegen outsprinted Philipsen and the other time he was blocked on the barriers and could have just about won. Yet in the Giro with an allegedly inferior sprint train, the team got Ewan to the final five times out of 7, but unfortunately Ewan was not good enough.

"Inferior" is a strong word, when Hepburn, Walscheid and Mezgec is a potential world class sprint train.
That said, the Giro sprint field was also stronger. Kooij, Merlier and Milan are all not here...

 

[Tim Cahill]

Tomorrow looks like a day where lower down GC contenders infiltrate the break, Visma/UAE won't chase because the gaps are far too large. Carapaz/Hindley/Yates will try again too. They will need rouler teammates to help them at the start. Big group I think. Stage 19/20 are the real GC stages.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Looks like Bini isn't suffering from any collarbone or shoulder injuries.

 

[dgodave]

Not the most thrilling stage ever. I hope Biniam is OK. Not the way I want tension to be added to the green jersey competition.

 

[saunaking]

got busy with work and forgot about the stage. The results! WTF happened
And still Pogi gaining time today?????

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's a false flat. Should be interesting.

The section from the start until the point where they start descending into Gap averages a whopping 0.7%. So either you need to pay more attention to the y-axis, or we've finally found someone who shares @rick james' definition of a false flat four years on.

Spoiler

For context

 

[QueenStagiaire]

got busy with work and forgot about the stage. The results! WTF happened
And still Pogi gaining time today?????

They haven‘t applied the 3/5/whatever k rule yet.

 

[Penninepeddler]

With MVDP as a poisson pilote, you never know.

If Philipsen wins all 3 of the intermediates that seem "plausible"?

Then if Bini comes 6th, 6th and 7th he still wins.

 

[nightowl]

They haven‘t applied the 3/5/whatever k rule yet.

Did the groups lose contact after the crash or because of the crash? Because if after then the 3km rule doesn’t apply, no?

 

[staubsauger]

Wærenskjold kinda blew this one. He should have gone early for a monster leadout with Kristoff on his wheel, when Philipsen still had 2 riders in front of him.
In that situation, when they have the field out you can't wait until Van der Poel does his leadout and expect to win. A wattage monster like Wærenskjold, with his sprinter Kristoff on his wheel, should go early, to even the odds and launch Kristoff at a high speed in a tailwind sprint.

The mistake is UnoX still sprints with Kristoff instead of Waerenskjold IMHO!

This isn't 2015!

 

[Danskebjerge]

It's like Philipsen makes a clean sprint one out of three times.

 

[RobertCrawley]

If Philipsen wins all 3 of the intermediates that seem "plausible"?

Then if Bini comes 6th, 6th and 7th he still wins.

Should be interesting if Bini can make a go of it.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Three for Jasper!

 

[Norbea]

That idiot from UNOx needs to look around and stop instead of leading out Philipsen

I don´t think Abra is to blame here. Wærenskjold and Kristoff should be on his wheel, but Wærenskjold gets bullied by Alpecin and they manage to squeeze in between the UnoX riders. I guess this is also the main reason they keep going for Kristoff in these sprints. If they can get ahead of the pack with Abra and Wærenskjold, he should win. Unfortunately Wærenskjold keeps losing his fights. He needs to fix that first before he can challenge Kristoff as the sprint captain.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Cav will keep going till Nice, but he was pretty much reflecting on his career and is just happy to be at the Tour one last time. Good interview.

Also, Bini looks all right enough on the podium, hopefully he won't be too sore tomorrow.

 

[Danskebjerge]

It's as if nowadays the injuries after crashes often prove worse than they looked at first. I feel that earlier, years ago, there were more riders that came out relatively fine after crashes. A consequence of higher speeds?

 

[Heston]

It's a false flat. Should be interesting.

We're talking about a man who has crushed Strade + Liege + Giro + Tour in the same season without looking tired at any point. No chance he gets tired tomorrow.