Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 16 16/7 Gruissan - Nîmes, 188.6k

[Penninepeddler]

van Aert has such awful positioning in sprints.

He is a 2nd tier sprinter, yeh, but he would have won so many more sprints if he did not either put himself against the barriers or lose wheels.

His career is almost certainly going to go down as a "what could have been"... on paper he should end up with over 100 wins and ~3 of the monuments, a WC, and ~20 TdF stage wins.

But tbh, given rider type... he is close to the end of his prime now.

 

[Gigs_98]

Man I really really hope Bini isn't hurt. If he can just stick to Philipsens wheel over the next few stages he's gonna win green anyway but if he's injured he'll probably lose the jersey.

 

[happytramp]

Great win by Philipsen!

Best sprinter of the tour for the second year in a row.

He'll probably win the green jersey in that case.

 

[RobertCrawley]

32 points is too big a gap to be closed by Philipsen.

With MVDP as a poisson pilote, you never know.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Wærenskjold kinda blew this one. He should have gone early for a monster leadout with Kristoff on his wheel, when Philipsen still had 2 riders in front of him.
In that situation, when they have the field out you can't wait until Van der Poel does his leadout and expect to win. A wattage monster like Wærenskjold, with his sprinter Kristoff on his wheel, should go early, to even the odds and launch Kristoff at a high speed in a tailwind sprint.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Man I really really hope Bini isn't hurt. If he can just stick to Philipsens wheel over the next few stages he's gonna win green anyway but if he's injured he'll probably lose the jersey.

Let's hope no broken bones.

 

[Escarabajo]

No breakaway will be allowed tomorrow. This will play out perfect into Pogacar's hands.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Aside from the extent to which Girmay is banged up, the other big question mark is stage 18. If Philipsen can get into the break there while Girmay misses out (and whichever break goes up the road will be uncontrollable for Intermarché), winning the intermediate + minor position at the finish is enough to close the gap.

Tomorrow also looks a lot different now given that Alpecin and Intermarché will be policing moves incredibly heavily.

 

[search]

there's another early intermediate sprint on Friday. Could come down to that one, if Philipsen makes up a couple of points tomorrow.

 

[RobertCrawley]

No breakaway will be allowed tomorrow. This will play out perfect into Pogacar's hands.

It looks like a long, hot haul all day up to the mountain. Look for Visma to make it as hard as they can and try one more time to break Tadej.

 

[yaco]

Gotta say that Jayco's performances in the flat sprint stages have been deplorable. They only got Groenewegen to the final two times out of 6. One time, Groenewegen outsprinted Philipsen and the other time he was blocked on the barriers and could have just about won. Yet in the Giro with an allegedly inferior sprint train, the team got Ewan to the final five times out of 7, but unfortunately Ewan was not good enough.

 

[Netserk]

Man I really really hope Bini isn't hurt. If he can just stick to Philipsens wheel over the next few stages he's gonna win green anyway but if he's injured he'll probably lose the jersey.

If he can make the time cuts, his team can help him out a lot. There are 3 intermediate sprints in play for Philipsen, one of them after some climbs. They need to use the whole team to mark Philipsen and close all moves he follows tomorrow. If the break sails without him, it's pretty much over.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It looks like a long, hot haul all day up to the mountain. Look for Visma to make it as hard as they can and try one more time to break Tadej.

The first three-quarters of the stage being flat is supposed to tire any GC rider, let alone Pogacar, out?

 

[pihi42]

Please someone correct me: all GC riders get the same time because they were behind Girmay when he crashed?

 

[RobertCrawley]

The first three-quarters of the stage being flat is supposed to tire any GC rider, let alone Pogacar, out?

It's a false flat. Should be interesting.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Gotta say that Jayco's performances in the flat sprint stages have been deplorable. They only got Groenewegen to the final two times out of 6. One time, Groenewegen outsprinted Philipsen and the other time he was blocked on the barriers and could have just about won. Yet in the Giro with an allegedly inferior sprint train, the team got Ewan to the final five times out of 7, but unfortunately Ewan was not good enough.

"Inferior" is a strong word, when Hepburn, Walscheid and Mezgec is a potential world class sprint train.
That said, the Giro sprint field was also stronger. Kooij, Merlier and Milan are all not here...

 

[Tim Cahill]

Tomorrow looks like a day where lower down GC contenders infiltrate the break, Visma/UAE won't chase because the gaps are far too large. Carapaz/Hindley/Yates will try again too. They will need rouler teammates to help them at the start. Big group I think. Stage 19/20 are the real GC stages.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Looks like Bini isn't suffering from any collarbone or shoulder injuries.

 

[dgodave]

Not the most thrilling stage ever. I hope Biniam is OK. Not the way I want tension to be added to the green jersey competition.

 

[saunaking]

got busy with work and forgot about the stage. The results! WTF happened
And still Pogi gaining time today?????

 

[James M]

The first three-quarters of the stage being flat is supposed to tire any GC rider, let alone Pogacar, out?

If Pogacar was hurt they would claim if he got tired from that stage and stepped of the bike it was duo to Jumbo and nothing else

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's a false flat. Should be interesting.

The section from the start until the point where they start descending into Gap averages a whopping 0.7%. So either you need to pay more attention to the y-axis, or we've finally found someone who shares @rick james' definition of a false flat four years on.

Spoiler

For context

 

[QueenStagiaire]

got busy with work and forgot about the stage. The results! WTF happened
And still Pogi gaining time today?????

They haven‘t applied the 3/5/whatever k rule yet.

 

[Penninepeddler]

With MVDP as a poisson pilote, you never know.

If Philipsen wins all 3 of the intermediates that seem "plausible"?

Then if Bini comes 6th, 6th and 7th he still wins.

 

[nightowl]

They haven‘t applied the 3/5/whatever k rule yet.

Did the groups lose contact after the crash or because of the crash? Because if after then the 3km rule doesn’t apply, no?