Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 2: Lauwin-Planque – Boulogne-sur-Mer (209.1k)

[Rob5091]

Bit wet at the start.

Time to try out the "aero wellies"!

 

[Rackham]

Don't fancy him to be well positioned anywhere.

If he miraculously does, he could pull his joke of looking 2nd best on the hardest climb and then getting like 5th in the final sprint.

Staying on the bike is becoming a victory in and of itself. Especially in the rain. It'll be carnage out there.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

It's not 1km. It's more lik 700m at ~13% average.

With climbs like thise nuance matters a lot. A 2'15 hill done unipuerto style is way different from La Redoute in Liege where everyone apart from Pogacar is already tired going in.

There's a reason Pogacar did poorly in Fleche in 2020 and 2022, why he didn't win either of stage 1 or 2 in 2021, why he was nowhere to be found when Van Aert selfishly dropped Vingegaard on stage 4 in 2022, or why he didn't drop frigging Narvaez off his wheel in stage 1 of the Giro in 2024.

Pogacar is not that well suited to this.

I agree. 1st week stage in GC tends to be less selective than 1 dat races with the same profile. Pogacar can't kill VdP purely using endurance like he does in RVV. That said 2024 and 2025 Pogacar seem pretty handy even in one shot muritos.
I also think the downhill false flat between the last KOM and the last climb is perfect for an Evenepoel counter attack, although i'm not to confident on him staying close to the other 2 at the top

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's not 1km. It's more lik 700m at ~13% average.

With climbs like thise nuance matters a lot. A 2'15 hill done unipuerto style is way different from La Redoute in Liege where everyone apart from Pogacar is already tired going in.

There's a reason Pogacar did poorly in Fleche in 2020 and 2022, why he didn't win either of stage 1 or 2 in 2021, why he was nowhere to be found when Van Aert selfishly dropped Vingegaard on stage 4 in 2022, or why he didn't drop frigging Narvaez off his wheel in stage 1 of the Giro in 2024.

Pogacar is not that well suited to this.

It's true that it doesn't have Liege difficulty (where other guys are tired due to amount of climbing) and positioning also matters. For this kind of climb MVP (or another classic guy) might be able to hold on or lose little time (and catch moments later), I think it's borderline, could go both ways. A few hundred meters longer and Pogi drops everyone (maybe except Vingo).

 

[fenns]

Bit wet at the start.

https://www.meteox.com/de-de/country/fr

Looks like it's moved away now

 

[Rob5091]

Looks like it's still raining at the start -
https://www.facebook.com/letour

 

[Red Rick]

Bit wet at the start.

 

[Cycling111]

Good profile for Narvaez. Giro 2024 first stage.

 

[MagliaNera]

It appears that the finish will likely be dry, but there should be rain during the day and of course the roads will be wet.

Winds before the finish are forecast up to 20-25 km/h from WSW direction. Looking at the parcours, there are only some sections oriented in the "right" way to be exposed to cross(-tail) winds including a section a bit after the intermediate sprint, but in general I'd say the chances of echelons will be significantly lower than yesterday.

(I should find a way to overlay the stage route on these maps)

 

[Cookster15]

Someone said the final kilometres are like Liege?
If the break doesn’t survive then I will stick my neck out and tip Pogacar to be too strong for MVDP and to also take yellow. Pog will want to set an early psychological marker on this terrain. Vingegaard will finish on the same time but if 3rd loses 6 seconds on the time bonuses. Doubtful they will finish that way and someone else can be in the mix.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Someone said the final kilometres are like Liege?
If the break doesn’t survive then I will stick my neck out and tip Pogacar to be too strong for MVDP and to also take yellow. Pog will want to set an early psychological marker on this terrain. Vingegaard will finish on the same time but if 3rd loses 6 seconds on the time bonuses. Doubtful they will finish that way and someone else can be in the mix.

If this was a one-day race maybe UAE would set a strong pace aiming for cumulative fatigue (not sure if the route is hard enough for that) and increasing Pog's chances. But this is only stage 2 of the Tour, expanding so much energy may not be their strategy.

 

[Red Rick]

If this was a one-day race maybe UAE would set a strong pace aiming for cumulative fatigue and increasing Pog's chances. But this is only stage 2 of the Tour, expanding so much energy may not be their strategy.

Last year Pogacar/UAE basically passed on a free win on stage 2.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

If this was a one-day race maybe UAE would set a strong pace aiming for cumulative fatigue (not sure if the route is hard enough for that) and increasing Pog's chances. But this is only stage 2 of the Tour, expanding so much energy may not be their strategy.

It could still be Visma's strategy though.

 

[Rob5091]

UAE taking the bikes off the cars? Someting's up!

 

[Monsi]

Last year Pogacar/UAE basically passed on a free win on stage 2.

Maybe the fact that there was like 12 km of flat after San Luca dissuaded UAE from pacing for stage 2 last year. This year, there is only 8 km from the top of the 1 km 10.6% climb and it is pretty much up and down to the finish with only around 1 km of flat. Still don't know though if UAE would like to go for the stage.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

I have ridden the stretch from cote de cavron-saijt-martin through to houcquelliers in the middle of the stage, the first half is constant 1km climbs and descents, the second half the road through henoville is very very exposed on the plateau. Important for riders to pay attention all the time (naming no names).

 

[RedheadDane]

Start delayed by 15 minutes, after several of the teams were delayed getting to the start.

(At first the tried to just speed up things by letting each rider just sign in individually.)

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Rainy rain coming down as live images appear

 

[Tricycle Rider]

A minor quibble, but I'm not a fan of seeing the Peacock studio guys wearing suits, feel like I'm at a business meeting rather than a sporting event.

 

[awavey]

A minor quibble, but I'm not a fan of seeing the Peacock studio guys wearing suits, feel like I'm at a business meeting rather than a sporting event.

Im never sure if the TNT crew are coming back from a nightclub or preparing to go to one after wards

 

[MartinGT]

Mvdp ftw today.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Good morning, chaps. It's a Mathieu kind of day!

 

[dobrien]

A minor quibble, but I'm not a fan of seeing the Peacock studio guys wearing suits, feel like I'm at a business meeting rather than a sporting event.

Same, although for me it's a major quibble; I feel like I'm at happy hour with my programmer buddies and all of a sudden a group of unpopular managers shows up...

 

[dobrien]

Im never sure if the TNT crew are coming back from a nightclub or preparing to go to one after wards

It's definitely a boring nightclub, whether they're coming or going!

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Start delayed by 15 minutes, after several of the teams were delayed getting to the start.

(At first the tried to just speed up things by letting each rider just sign in individually.)

Vande Velde was saying there was a huge traffic delay because there's only one road leading through the town, hopefully they'll get the show on the road soon.