Tour de France Tour de France 2025: who will win the race?

[VayaVayaVaya]

The most likely outcome would be a repetition of last year's podium. If one of the two top favorites drops out due to a crash or other bad luck, a co-leader of UAE or Visma might take over, but they would have a hard time beating Evenepoel.

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Evenepoel
4. Almeida
5. Jorgenson
6. A. Yates
7. Someone from Red Bull-Bora
8. Rodriguez
9. Mas
10. Skjelmose

Other candidates for the top 10 are Gall, Buitrago and O'Connor. Perhaps Onley or Van Eetvelt can come close. Simon Yates probably won't bother about his own GC after winning the Giro. A Pereiro scenario is out of the question, because UAE and Visma are too strong to give an outsider a lot of leeway. A Frenchman winning forty years after Hinault is even less likely. Vauquelin and Lenny Martinez should focus on stage hunting, as should Healy, Storer and Romeo.

This is the most disrespectful post to Roglic I’ve ever seen. When you’re typing the names, “Buitrago,” “Onley,” “O’Connor,” and “Skjelmose” as potential Tour winners but not Roglic, you are committed no doubt.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

****** Pogacar
***** Vingegaard
****
*** Roglic, Remco
** Almeida
* Jorgensen, Lipowitz

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

****** Pogacar
***** Vingegaard
****
*** Roglic, Remco
** Almeida
* Jorgensen, Lipowitz

The gap last year from Pogacar to Evenepoel (with Vingegaard in between) was smaller than the gap from Evenepoel to Almeida, so i'm left wondering why people keep reiterating this assumption that the empty space should be ahead of Evenepoel instead of behind him, if you are hellbent on having one to begin with. Was it Evenepoel's subpar performance in the Dauphiné? Because compared to last year his Dauphiné was actually much better.

Tour de France 2024 Stage 21 (ITT) results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Tour de France 2024, before Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. The stage from Monaco to Nice was won by Tadej PogaÄar.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[Rackham]

The gap last year from Pogacar to Evenepoel (with Vingegaard in between) was smaller than the gap from Evenepoel to Almeida, so i'm left wondering why people keep reiterating this assumption that the empty space should be ahead of Evenepoel instead of behind him, if you are hellbent on having one to begin with. Was it Evenepoel's subpar performance in the Dauphiné? Because compared to last year his Dauphiné was actually much better.

Tour de France 2024 Stage 21 (ITT) results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Tour de France 2024, before Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. The stage from Monaco to Nice was won by Tadej PogaÄar.

www.procyclingstats.com

I think it's understandable to see Evenepoel perhaps not exactly elicit much optimism (for different reasons than Rog but I'll get back to that) simply because he's got a one climbing peak per year. He literally hasn't climbed well since the Tour last year. That's a long time. Maybe he'll hit the sweet spot again but you have to see how it just doesn't exactly inspire absolute confidence in his climbing. There's a lot of faith among his fans that he'll naturally be even better this time. That remains to be seen tbh.

As for Rog, he's just got too much of a DNF rate now and people can't see beyond that and his plateau as a climber which he's pretty much hit already. But regardless, on form and without problems he's in contention for the podium (yes, versus Evenepoel, i.e. that's pretty much the expected fight for third going into this Tour).

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

The gap last year from Pogacar to Evenepoel (with Vingegaard in between) was smaller than the gap from Evenepoel to Almeida, so i'm left wondering why people keep reiterating this assumption that the empty space should be ahead of Evenepoel instead of behind him, if you are hellbent on having one to begin with. Was it Evenepoel's subpar performance in the Dauphiné? Because compared to last year his Dauphiné was actually much better.

Tour de France 2024 Stage 21 (ITT) results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Tour de France 2024, before Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. The stage from Monaco to Nice was won by Tadej PogaÄar.

www.procyclingstats.com

I agree that, as bad as he looked in the Dauphine, he looked worse last year, which is encouraging. I think the gap to Vingegaard will grow this year because he isn't recovering from a brutal crash that left him in the hospital for 12 days. Remco's prep wasn't ideal last year either, but it wasn't as bad as Vingegaard's. Also, Vingegaard has a much better team and Remco (and Roglic) are not only guided by worse teammates for tough positioning, etc., but they also are more prone to being out of position, crashing, or having bad days. That's why I think the gap between Vingegaard and Remco will grow.

As for why I think Almeida will close the gap to Remco, I don't think he will be called on to do much to support Pogacar at all and will mostly go for his own result, he has been in fine form winning 3 prestigious one-week stage races this year, and he won't do anything that will risk him blowing up because he won't be going for the win, unlike Remco; he'll just motor at his own pace, which won't likely get him on the podium, but will have him much closer than last year.

No disrespect to Remco (or Rog, my favorite rider) intended.

 

[Cycling111]

Speaking of differences... the difference in minutes between Pogacar and Evenepoel was the same as the difference between Pogacar and Dani Martinez at the Giro
If it were by minutes, would Martinez be on par with Remco?

Forget the minutes. What matters is that Evenepoel couldn't keep up with Pogacar on any stage.
For me, it would have been more positive if Remco had finished 20 minutes behind due to two bad days but had been with Pogacar on four stages, than losing 10 minutes by being far behind Pogacar every day.

As of today, it seems more remote that Evenepoel will close that gap and win the Tour than that Almeida, Roglic or Lipowitz, (Lipowitz more unlikely), will finish third.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree that, as bad as he looked in the Dauphine, he looked worse last year, which is encouraging. I think the gap to Vingegaard will grow this year because he isn't recovering from a brutal crash that left him in the hospital for 12 days. Remco's prep wasn't ideal last year either, but it wasn't as bad as Vingegaard's. Also, Vingegaard has a much better team and Remco (and Roglic) are not only guided by worse teammates for tough positioning, etc., but they also are more prone to being out of position, crashing, or having bad days. That's why I think the gap between Vingegaard and Remco will grow.

I was not talking about the gap between Vingegaard and Evenepoel even, i was purposely referring to Pogacar, the winner and the overwhelming favorite next month as well. The gap between Pogacar and Evenepoel was smaller than that from Evenepoel to Almeida. Even if Vingegaard improves drastically, that doesn't mean anything for the gap between Pogacar and Evenepoel or the gap between Evenepoel to Almeida.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I was not talking about the gap between Vingegaard and Evenepoel even, i was purposely referring to Pogacar. The gap between Pogacar and Evenepoel was smaller than that from Evenepoel to Almeida. Even if Vingegaard improves drastically, that doesn't mean anything for the gap between Pogacar and Evenepoel or the gap between Evenepoel to Almeida.

My mistake. I read too quickly and missed that. I think the latter part of my post addresses that, though - I think Almeida will improve relative to Pogacar due to form and circumstances.

 

[Cycling111]

I think Jorgenson is being overrated for the general classification.. Last year he finished eighth, his best result in a GT. This year Landa is out, and Adam seems to be in a worse fshape, but even so, Jorgenson hasn't proven himself a top-five GT rider.

If Roglic doesn't have any accidents, Jorgenson won't finish ahead of him.
Even Carlos Rodriguez, if he's good this year, should finish ahead of him. He's more a GT rider than Jorgenson.

 

[Squire]

The most likely outcome would be a repetition of last year's podium. If one of the two top favorites drops out due to a crash or other bad luck, a co-leader of UAE or Visma might take over, but they would have a hard time beating Evenepoel.

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Evenepoel
4. Almeida
5. Jorgenson
6. A. Yates
7. Someone from Red Bull-Bora
8. Rodriguez
9. Mas
10. Skjelmose

Other candidates for the top 10 are Gall, Buitrago and O'Connor. Perhaps Onley or Van Eetvelt can come close. Simon Yates probably won't bother about his own GC after winning the Giro. A Pereiro scenario is out of the question, because UAE and Visma are too strong to give an outsider a lot of leeway. A Frenchman winning forty years after Hinault is even less likely. Vauquelin and Lenny Martinez should focus on stage hunting, as should Healy, Storer and Romeo.

Why are so many putting Yates high on their list? He's not only doing consecutive GTs when recovery is already not his strong point, but he's also been really underwhelming ever since the Tour 2023. And even that wasn't as impressive as it looks on the result sheet. Just slightly better than Pello Bilbao and a bad Simon Yates. It was a somewhat weak Tour behind the two aliens. Add to that the fact that he's got two guys ahead of him in the team hierarchy on a team that likely have to control the race.

Are people really that convinced about UAE's magic?

 

[Netserk]

Why are so many putting Yates high on their list? He's not only doing consecutive GTs when recovery is already not his strong point, but he's also been really underwhelming ever since the Tour 2023. And even that wasn't as impressive as it looks on the result sheet. Just slightly better than Pello Bilbao and a bad Simon Yates. It was a somewhat weak Tour behind the two aliens. Add to that the fact that he's got two guys ahead of him in the team hierarchy on a team that likely have to control the race.

Are people really that convinced about UAE's magic?

Yes to the latter question.

And recall that unlike the two you mentioned, he got no time gifted from breaks, he was by far the third best from the peloton over the three weeks.

 

[Brullnux]

The gap last year from Pogacar to Evenepoel (with Vingegaard in between) was smaller than the gap from Evenepoel to Almeida, so i'm left wondering why people keep reiterating this assumption that the empty space should be ahead of Evenepoel instead of behind him, if you are hellbent on having one to begin with. Was it Evenepoel's subpar performance in the Dauphiné? Because compared to last year his Dauphiné was actually much better.

Tour de France 2024 Stage 21 (ITT) results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Tour de France 2024, before Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. The stage from Monaco to Nice was won by Tadej PogaÄar.

www.procyclingstats.com

I think you're misreading 'how close will they be at the end of the race' as 'how likely are they to win the race'. Realistically, the only way Remco wins is if the top two crash. That's it – and it's the same precondition as Almeida. It's on that basis that people are saying there's no 'three-star' favourite.

Without Pogacar crashing then I agree that the gap will be bigger between Remco and Almeida than Pog and Remco. However, I don't think that negates the fact that both are similarly very unlikely to win the Tour and the relative gap in likelihood to win the Tour is narrower between Almeida and Remco than Pog and Remco. If I were to pick numbers out of a hat, I'd say that I'd back Pogacar to win around 80% of the time, Vingo 15% or so, Remco and Roglic 1%, and Almeida 0.5%. All of the non Pogacar/Vingo chances are based on the ~4% chance they both crash out á la 2014.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes to the latter question.

And recall that unlike the two you mentioned, he got no time gifted from breaks, he was by far the third best from the peloton over the three weeks.

It's also quite clear Adam wasn't taking the Giro entirely serious

 

[Brullnux]

It's also quite clear Adam wasn't taking the Giro entirely serious

Really unfair, he helped his brother out immensely

 

[Tim Cahill]

Yates apparently took quite a heavy fall and was injured I believe on stage 6 in the Giro which affected his recovery, he aimed to be better in week 3 like his brother but it messed up his race so he folded into more of a domestique role.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Roglic has more votes than Remco. Wild!

 

[SHAD0W93]

Roglic has more votes than Remco. Wild!

Crazier that Roglic is 3 votes behind Vingegaard.

 

[Red Rick]

Crazier that Roglic is 3 votes behind Vingegaard.

It's really not if realize these polls are inacurrate about what people really expect to happen and instead include a rather large dose of wishful thinking.

It really only reflects that Roglic is a lot more popular than Vingegaard and that Vingegaard hasn't inspired much confidence to make people really believe he'll beat The Underpog.

 

[Berniece]

Roglic has more votes than Remco. Wild!

Why is that wild? More people like Roglic, he’s one of the most liked riders in the peloton

 

[Lequack]

Here are this year's protagonists! Can you recognize them?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Here are this year's protagonists! Can you recognize them?

Who are the other two on the left, Lipowitz and Jorgenson?

 

[Berniece]

Here are this year's protagonists! Can you recognize them?

Who is that on the bottom left? The rest is easy

 

[Berniece]

Who are the other two on the left, Lipowitz and Jorgenson?

MVDP is second row first column

 

[Faserr]

Bottom left could be Almeida.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglic has more votes than Remco. Wild!

Crazier that Roglic is 3 votes behind Vingegaard.

Why wild and crazy?