Tour de France Tour de France 2025: who will win the race?

[SHAD0W93]

Why wild and crazy?

Vingegaard has a much higher chance than Roglic of winning.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Vingegaard has a much higher chance than Roglic of winning.

I don't know to be honest. In the end Jonas won 2 GTs in his career so far.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I don't know to be honest. In the end Jonas won 2 GTs in his career so far.

And Vingegaard has 2 TdF wins and second places while Roglic has a second and fourth place to his name. Then to answer your other question, I’d say Pogacar 60-70% chance to win and Roglic 60-70% chance to DNF.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@SHAD0W93

Yeah, two so far.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think you're misreading 'how close will they be at the end of the race' as 'how likely are they to win the race'. Realistically, the only way Remco wins is if the top two crash. That's it – and it's the same precondition as Almeida. It's on that basis that people are saying there's no 'three-star' favourite.

Without Pogacar crashing then I agree that the gap will be bigger between Remco and Almeida than Pog and Remco. However, I don't think that negates the fact that both are similarly very unlikely to win the Tour and the relative gap in likelihood to win the Tour is narrower between Almeida and Remco than Pog and Remco. If I were to pick numbers out of a hat, I'd say that I'd back Pogacar to win around 80% of the time, Vingo 15% or so, Remco and Roglic 1%, and Almeida 0.5%. All of the non Pogacar/Vingo chances are based on the ~4% chance they both crash out á la 2014.

Ah, a "free Almeida" believer.

 

[Brullnux]

Ah, a "free Almeida" believer.

[[content deleted]]

I can rephrase: I think there is more chance of Almeida beating Evenepoel in a GT (still small) than there is of Evenepoel beating Pogacar (nil, barring a retirement). Therefore, the gap in likelihood to win the Tour is narrower. I do not think that Almeida beating Remco in a straight GC battle is at all likely, but I think it is likelier than Remco beating Pogacar, even just given that Evenepoel is much more likely than Pogacar to have a really bad day.

That's the same assessment others are making when they put Remco at 2* and Almeida at 1*. I also think that the Tour will end with a bigger gap between Evenepoel and Almeida than Pogacar and Evenepoel, but it's besides the point.

 

[Peyroteo94]

[[deleted content]]
I can rephrase: I think there is more chance of Almeida beating Evenepoel in a GT (still small) than there is of Evenepoel beating Pogacar (nil, barring a retirement). Therefore, the gap in likelihood to win the Tour is narrower. I do not think that Almeida beating Remco in a straight GC battle is at all likely, but I think it is likelier than Remco beating Pogacar, even just given that Evenepoel is much more likely than Pogacar to have a really bad day.

That's the same assessment others are making when they put Remco at 2* and Almeida at 1*. I also think that the Tour will end with a bigger gap between Evenepoel and Almeida than Pogacar and Evenepoel, but it's besides the point.

Of course you are right. The difference between Remco and Almeida is not big in the mountains (Almeida already beat Remco many times. The last one in Romandie) even if I think Remco's ceilling is higher (by a decent margin) but between Pogi and Remco, we are talking about 2 minutes gaps in every single mountain stage Pogacar decides to go full gas.
I am sure if there isn't crashes, when we hit the mountains (Hautacam), Pogacar will put more than 2 minutes on Remco and less than 3 on Almeida.

 

[Gratemans]

I don't know to be honest. In the end Jonas won 2 GTs in his career so far.

Oh come on. I don't mean to single you out, and as you know I like Roglic, but.. come on! I'm absolutely convinced you know that is a weak argument. Jonas participates in way less GT's.

You can ofcourse criticize that, but you can't possibly use it as an argument that Primoz is more likely to win because Jonas "only won 2 GT's".
It might also be worth mentioning that those two GT's were that pretty big one. You know, the one in France.

 

[Gratemans]

Something completely different: I can't help but think this is the best overall field we have seen in quite a while? All the major GC contenders are here, and they're all without any injuries. All the sprinters are here as well (ok, barring Mad Mads, but he seemed to have shifted towards the classics more anyway as a rider) and all the best puncheurs? I might be wrong but I can't really remember the last time we had this strong of a startlist.

(The pessimist in me now says that the cycling gods don't like to spoil us with this much fortunem so the first week we're gonna lose a couple of major GC contenders.)

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sure, if you're unable to read than I can see why you think that.

Thank you for your concern, but i can read pretty well. The point of my post was that you believe Almeida to improve in such a drastic fashion in case he would not have to work for Pogacar, that the gap to Evenepoel would become much smaller than the gap from Evenepoel was to Vingegaard. In that sense, you would really have to believe he had been chained last year. Don't get me wrong, i also believe Almeida could have done better if he were able to only ride for himself, but how much better? A minute or two? Five? Let's just look at last year's time gaps, because we can't look into the future (even though i assume Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Almeida could all improve given circumstances then and now).

The gaps were as follows:
Pogacar > 6:17 > Vingegaard > 3:01 > Evenepoel > 9:45 > Almeida

Even if Almeida closed 4:45 in a hypothetical scenario where Pog crashed out early, and even if Vingegaard went 2 minutes faster (he was injured more severely than Evenepoel), even then the gap before and after Evenepoel would have been equally large. So yes, i'm quite surprised to see people put in an empty line after Vingegaard but not ahead of Almeida. But again, who knows what will happen the next 4 weeks. I'm sure it's an oversight and has nothing to do with bias.

 

[tigabara]

If there is no accident... Well, who will be the champion is already clear. Of course we don't expect an accident to happen, right? So it's clear who the favorite is. Tadej Pogacar.

 

[KZD]

Who is that on the bottom left? The rest is easy

Bottom left could be Almeida.

Its Van Aert.

 

[AmRacer]

I don't know to be honest. In the end Jonas won 2 GTs in his career so far.

Rogla has never finished ahead of neither Pogi or Jonas.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Gratemans

Still, two it is.

 

[Berniece]

Its Van Aert.

Thanks, so basically the big 6

 

[Netserk]

Thank you for your concern, but i can read pretty well. The point of my post was that you believe Almeida to improve in such a drastic fashion in case he would not have to work for Pogacar, that the gap to Evenepoel would become much smaller than the gap from Evenepoel was to Vingegaard. In that sense, you would really have to believe he had been chained last year. Don't get me wrong, i also believe Almeida could have done better if he were able to only ride for himself, but how much better? A minute or two? Five? Let's just look at last year's time gaps, because we can't look into the future (even though i assume Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Almeida could all improve given circumstances then and now).

The gaps were as follows:
Pogacar > 6:17 > Vingegaard > 3:01 > Evenepoel > 9:45 > Almeida

Even if Almeida closed 4:45 in a hypothetical scenario where Pog crashed out early, and even if Vingegaard went 2 minutes faster (he was injured more severely than Evenepoel), even then the gap before and after Evenepoel would have been equally large. So yes, i'm quite surprised to see people put in an empty line after Vingegaard but not ahead of Almeida. But again, who knows what will happen the next 4 weeks. I'm sure it's an oversight and has nothing to do with bias.

Not a single word addressing likelihood, just reiterating time gaps. And you clearly can read, so it's willfully ignoring the argument of your counterpart in an effort to repeatably yell loud enough BIAS! until others give up.

 

[Brullnux]

Thank you for your concern, but i can read pretty well. The point of my post was that you believe Almeida to improve in such a drastic fashion in case he would not have to work for Pogacar, that the gap to Evenepoel would become much smaller than the gap from Evenepoel was to Vingegaard. In that sense, you would really have to believe he had been chained last year. Don't get me wrong, i also believe Almeida could have done better if he were able to only ride for himself, but how much better? A minute or two? Five? Let's just look at last year's time gaps, because we can't look into the future (even though i assume Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Almeida could all improve given circumstances then and now).

The gaps were as follows:
Pogacar > 6:17 > Vingegaard > 3:01 > Evenepoel > 9:45 > Almeida

Even if Almeida closed 4:45 in a hypothetical scenario where Pog crashed out early, and even if Vingegaard went 2 minutes faster (he was injured more severely than Evenepoel), even then the gap before and after Evenepoel would have been equally large. So yes, i'm quite surprised to see people put in an empty line after Vingegaard but not ahead of Almeida. But again, who knows what will happen the next 4 weeks. I'm sure it's an oversight and has nothing to do with bias.

Again, this is not a question of time gaps but of likelihood. I agree that in a straight GC battle Almeida most likely finishes a few minutes behind Evenepoel, similar to the gap between Evenepoel and Vingegaard. But because Remco is occasionally prone to very bad days, and then also because of the respective difference in strength between UAE and Soudal-Quickstep, I don't think the only way Almeida beats Remco in a three week race is through Remco retiring, whereas that is the only way that Remco beats Pogacar and Vingegaard.

I was harsh to say that you did not read what I wrote properly, but I think you are wilfully ignoring its main point.

 

[Breh]

Something completely different: I can't help but think this is the best overall field we have seen in quite a while? All the major GC contenders are here, and they're all without any injuries. All the sprinters are here as well (ok, barring Mad Mads, but he seemed to have shifted towards the classics more anyway as a rider) and all the best puncheurs? I might be wrong but I can't really remember the last time we had this strong of a startlist.

(The pessimist in me now says that the cycling gods don't like to spoil us with this much fortunem so the first week we're gonna lose a couple of major GC contenders.)

???

The one true winner of the Giro 2025 is absent and Soudal Quick Step now has to rely on Landa's #1 domestique to save em.

 

[greyclouds]

And Vingegaard has 2 TdF wins and second places while Roglic has a second and fourth place to his name. Then to answer your other question, I’d say Pogacar 60-70% chance to win and Roglic 60-70% chance to DNF.

Roglic DNF 55% of his last 9 GTs since '21 (!).

Ypu are dead right, it's crazy that he so close to Vingegaard in votes, when Vingo has finished 2nd and better his last 5 GTs and top-2 on 5/6 his entire career.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Again, this is not a question of time gaps but of likelihood. I agree that in a straight GC battle Almeida most likely finishes a few minutes behind Evenepoel, similar to the gap between Evenepoel and Vingegaard. But because Remco is occasionally prone to very bad days, and then also because of the respective difference in strength between UAE and Soudal-Quickstep, I don't think the only way Almeida beats Remco in a three week race is through Remco retiring, whereas that is the only way that Remco beats Pogacar and Vingegaard.

I was harsh to say that you did not read what I wrote properly, but I think you are wilfully ignoring its main point.

If this is about likelihood, the gap should be right after Pogacar, surely.

 

[Cycling111]

I don't know to be honest. In the end Jonas won 2 GTs in his career so far.

Because the Tour is harder to win, and because in the Vuelta, Roglic has only faced a 20-year neopro Pogacar.

If it were as you say, Roglic wouldn't have left Visma to win the Tour because he would have been the leader in Visma, but in Visma, he had Vingegaard ahead of him because he's better than him for a Tour.

Besides, you're forgetting that Roglic already competed with them in some stages of the Tour 2024 and he was inferior to them in every one.

Be realistic.

Bottom left could be Almeida.

Jonathan Milan.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

If this is about likelihood, the gap should be right after Pogacar, surely.

Possibly, but as I stated before, while I think nearly all agree that Pogacar has reached new, unprecedented heights and is the huge favorite, there are a few facts that make the gap in likelihood between Pogacar and Vingegaard smaller than the gap between Vingegaard and Remco:

• Vingegaard has won the Tour twice, being Pogacar
• Vingegaard had a terrible crash last year that hampered his prep significantly
• He wasn't close last year, but he was by far the closest, coming within a minute of Pogacars Pdbf all-timer
• He should be coming into the Tour this year with significantly better form
• He has a great team to support him (unlike Remco and Roglic)

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Cycling111

Without DNFs i am rather sure that Rogla would consistently be up there at the Tour, from 2020 to 2024. Even now, when some sort of cancel culture is at play, Rogla removed from all official posters, not mentioned in most of articles, the last one i read was on how Pogi, Jonas and Remco will be competing for prize money, other articles going as far as promoting support riders from other teams higher ... Anyway, even now there is no real reason to believe it will be any different.

So yeah, lets keep it real.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Possibly, but as I stated before, while I think nearly all agree that Pogacar has reached new, unprecedented heights and is the huge favorite, there are a few facts that make the gap in likelihood between Pogacar and Vingegaard smaller than the gap between Vingegaard and Remco:

• Vingegaard has won the Tour twice, being Pogacar
• Vingegaard had a terrible crash last year that hampered his prep significantly
• He wasn't close last year, but he was by far the closest, coming within a minute of Pogacars Pdbf all-timer
• He should be coming into the Tour this year with significantly better form
• He has a great team to support him (unlike Remco and Roglic)

Those are all semi-valid arguments, except for the fact about how Almeida relates to all this. "He had a terrible crash"...Evenepoel crashed that same moment and also had to come back. His injuries were less severe, but his prep was also disturbed, his bones also had to heal, and with him it automatically comes with a different problem (managing his weight). "He wasn't close but by far the closest". If 3 minutes overall is "by far" then how would you describe the nearly 10 minutes Evenepoel had over Almeida?

It's basically just twisting arguments to fit the bias. If you want to set a gap after Vingegaard, fine. Then set one ahead of Vingegaard as well, and one behind Evenepoel/Roglic as well. Or don't set a gap at all.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Those are all semi-valid arguments, except for the fact about how Almeida relates to all this. "He had a terrible crash"...Evenepoel crashed that same moment and also had to come back. His injuries were less severe, but his prep was also disturbed, his bones also had to heal, and with him it automatically comes with a different problem (managing his weight). "He wasn't close but by far the closest". If 3 minutes overall is "by far" then how would you describe the nearly 10 minutes Evenepoel had over Almeida?

It's basically just twisting arguments to fit the bias. If you want to set a gap after Vingegaard, fine. Then set one ahead of Vingegaard as well, and one behind Evenepoel/Roglic as well. Or don't set a gap at all.

You might be right, given that implicit bias is inherently unconscious, but if you check the who do you want to win thread you'll see that I want Roglic to win, followed by Remco among the serious contenders. I like both riders a lot, so I'm not underrating either out of a sense of bias against them. I think the reality is that no one can make a results based argument that Almeida, Roglic, or Remco are going to beat Vingegaard or Pogacar, but you can make a results based argument that Vingegaard can beat Pogacar, hence the gaps in likelihood ratings.