Tour de France Tour de France 2026 route rumours

[Netserk]

you have much shorter recovery and a technical descent before you start Aprica.

I don't think the descent times are that different, but I agree that the Tourmalet descent is better for a group.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't think the descent times are that different, but I agree that the Tourmalet descent is better for a group.

If UAE makes carnage on Tourmalet I would expect Pog to gain 2+ minutes on everyone except Vingo. And likely only small groups at the top.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think the descent times are that different, but I agree that the Tourmalet descent is better for a group.

You could be right. But the Tourmalet descent has a lot more cruising in it, which I think is better for recovery than breaking and accelerating nonstop.

Tourmalet descent is also steep enough to not really favor bigger groups that much. It's a desent where I'd see Evenepoel take time back if he's dropped.

 

[Netserk]

If UAE makes carnage on Tourmalet I would expect Pog to gain 2+ minutes on everyone except Vingo. And likely only small groups at the top.

If UAE want to end the Tour, they should make sure the break doesn't survive Tourmalet.

Thankfully, the stage has a decent length so the break can get a gap before the climbs.

 

[Red Rick]

If UAE makes carnage on Tourmalet I would expect Pog to gain 2+ minutes on everyone except Vingo. And likely only small groups at the top.

I mean we've seen the exact scenario in 2023, though the pace wasn't that high for most of the Tourmalet. The chase group gave up instantly and just gave up 2 minutes instantly pacing at the pace of the 15th best rider.

Gaps have only gotten bigger since then.

 

[Red Rick]

If UAE want to end the Tour, they should make sure the break doesn't survive Tourmalet.

Thankfully, the stage has a decent length so the break can get a gap before the climbs.

I don't see many typical domestiques if any that would survive the Tourmalet.

Unironically RB should already be up for yeeting the likes of Lipowitz and Roglic into breakaway (if they race/if possible).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I mean we've seen the exact scenario in 2023, though the pace wasn't that high for most of the Tourmalet. The chase group gave up instantly and just gave up 2 minutes instantly pacing at the pace of the 15th best rider.

Gaps have only gotten bigger since then.

Yup, Then imagine Almeida going a bloc for a few km on Tourmalet. A group of 3-4 left before Pog even attacks.

 

[Netserk]

I don't see many typical domestiques if any that would survive the Tourmalet.

Unironically RB should already be up for yeeting the likes of Lipowitz and Roglic into breakaway (if they race/if possible).

We need a big break like on Ventoux.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It makes it both less likely for something to happen and more likely that if it does, the Tour is over immediately.

The only mitigating factor in this is that Tourmalet isn't really like the Mortirolo where you're absolutely balls to the wall for 40+ minutes and you have much shorter recovery and a technical descent before you start Aprica. Tourmalet is a negative split climb and the last time they went full gas there they only went full gas for 12 minutes.

And both of them were 2 minutes ahead of the rest.
Tourmalet is normally a negative split but I'm pretty sure UAE will go crazy since Aspin.

Col du Tourmalet - Profile of the ascent

Col du Tourmalet is a climb in the region Hautes-Pyrénées. It is 16.9km long and bridges 1266 vertical meters with an average gradient of 7.5%, resulting in a

climbfinder.com

Looking to this profile, I don't see a group larger than 15 riders with 8 km to the top.
Pogacar will probably attack with 5 km to the top. He can gain a full minute without going full gas.

 

[Peyroteo94]

If UAE want to end the Tour, they should make sure the break doesn't survive Tourmalet.

Thankfully, the stage has a decent length so the break can get a gap before the climbs.

You are underestimating UAE, specially so early in the race. The break will be doomed already on Aspin.
No way they can gain 8 minutes in just 100 km (until Aspin). UAE will be too strong and it's the first mountain test. I really think odds are very low for the break to survive Tourmalet.

 

[YavorD]

And both of them were 2 minutes ahead of the rest.
Tourmalet is normally a negative split but I'm pretty sure UAE will go crazy since Aspin.

Col du Tourmalet - Profile of the ascent

Col du Tourmalet is a climb in the region Hautes-Pyrénées. It is 16.9km long and bridges 1266 vertical meters with an average gradient of 7.5%, resulting in a

climbfinder.com

Looking to this profile, I don't see a group larger than 15 riders with 8 km to the top.
Pogacar will probably attack with 5 km to the top. He can gain a full minute without going full gas.

Okay now, full minute on Vingegaard based on everything we saw this year is a bit of a stretch. Unless Vingegaard underperforms like he did on Combloux and Hautacam.

Combloux and Hautacam are IMO misleading about the real gap between the 2, as on these stages Vingegaard massively underperformed related to the rest of the field.

 

[hayneplane]

If UAE want to end the Tour, they should make sure the break doesn't survive Tourmalet.

Thankfully, the stage has a decent length so the break can get a gap before the climbs.

If they could get Wellens or a similar rider over the top in the break to pace the descent and lower slopes of the final climb for a solo Pogacar that would also be ideal but with the caveat that most likely in that scenario Visma also have 1-2 satellite riders as well.

 

[YavorD]

I'm relatively unfamiliar with the ideal Grand Tour route.

But how much does the route affect the excitement of a race? After all, it ultimately determines the level of competition between the favorites. If Vingegaard can put in an exceptional performance to keep up with Pogacar, the race will be exciting, right?

Okay, maybe a long, flat ITT (50 km?) would have an impact, giving Remco a better chance at the GC? But is that really the case?

Well, the routes are the tools that riders use yo make the race exciting If Vingegaard and Pogacar are very close to each other and you put the hardest mountain as a finale and even more so the last kilometres the steepest, you have the stage reduced to a mountain sprint with little to no tactics or anything. Now someone may like to watch nothing for 150 kilometres and everything exploding in the last 3 and and that's a personal choice.
But ideally you're looking to create terrain for longer attacks, satellite breakaway riders and more possibilities for tactics and different scenarios. Then you need to put very hard mountain/the hardest further away from the finale with preferably very little or no flat part before the final climb.

 

[Netserk]

If they could get Wellens or a similar rider over the top in the break to pace the descent and lower slopes of the final climb for a solo Pogacar that would also be ideal but with the caveat that most likely in that scenario Visma also have 1-2 satellite riders as well.

Yep. But I think the matchup without doms is much better for Pogi. I don't see Wellens drop Armirail on Tourmalet.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Okay now, full minute on Vingegaard based on everything we saw this year is a bit of a stretch. Unless Vingegaard underperforms like he did on Combloux and Hautacam.

Combloux and Hautacam are IMO misleading about the real gap between the 2, as on these stages Vingegaard massively underperformed related to the rest of the field.

Pogacar wasn't at his best in the last week of the Tour too. I also think Vingegaard was better than what he showed on Hautacam.
I also think the gap between Pogacar and Vingegaard will grow (just a feeling from what I have been seeing). So I really believe it's realistic to expect Pogacar 1' ahead of Vingegaard. If not 1', maybe 40-50".

 

[YavorD]

Pogacar wasn't at his best in the last week of the Tour too. I also think Vingegaard was better than what he showed on Hautacam.
I also think the gap between Pogacar and Vingegaard will grow (just a feeling from what I have been seeing). So I really believe it's realistic to expect Pogacar 1' ahead of Vingegaard. If not 1', maybe 40-50".

But if we both agree that Vingegaard is (much) better that what he showed on Hautacam, I would say based on everything we saw during the Tour 1.30 on Lipowitz, that would put him 50 seconds behind Pogacar. And that's over 12 kilometres.
A minute on Vingegaard would probably mean more than 2 on everyone else. Honestly sounds unrealistic over 5 kilometres on Tourmalet.

I would say 40 seconds absolute tops.

 

[Peyroteo94]

But if we both agree that Vingegaard is (much) better that what he showed on Hautacam, I would say based on everything we saw during the Tour 1.30 on Lipowitz, that would put him 50 seconds behind Pogacar. And that's over 12 kilometres.
A minute on Vingegaard would probably mean more than 2 on everyone else. Honestly sounds unrealistic over 5 kilometres on Tourmalet.

I would say 40 seconds absolute tops.

Agreed. To gain a full minute, he needs to attack from further away (probably with 7-8 km to the top. Not gonna happen).
But I also have this feeling Pogacar is increasing the gap to Vingegaard and Vingegaard can also ride the Giro before the Tour.

 

[YavorD]

Agreed. To gain a full minute, he needs to attack from further away (probably with 7-8 km to the top. Not gonna happen).
But I also have this feeling Pogacar is increasing the gap to Vingegaard and Vingegaard can also ride the Giro before the Tour.

Which doesn't mean he won't be 100%.
Vingegaard can win the Giro on 90% and be 100% for the Tour. If he has to go deep however..

Also, don't think 2025 is a proof that the gap is getting bigger. Vingegaard showed cracks (which was not typical for him previously) on Hautacam (and Combloux beforehand), but I honestly put it mostly on Narvaez' acceleration.
If he is able to eliminate the cracks, the gap isn't that big IMO.

 

[YavorD]

,,ьAgreed. To gain a full minute, he needs to attack from further away (probably with 7-8 km to the top. Not gonna happen).
But I also have this feeling Pogacar is increasing the gap to Vingegaard and Vingegaard can also ride the Giro before the Tour.

Also, don't think that Pogacar was getting much worse. The relative gap to the rest of the field looked smaller, but that's because they cancelled each other. Had they rode, the gaps would've been similar to Hautacam. Meaning that it's not Pogacar who was (much) worse than early in the Tour, it's Vingegaard who got better/closer to Pogacar.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Which doesn't mean he won't be 100%.
Vingegaard can win the Giro on 90% and be 100% for the Tour. If he has to go deep however..

Also, don't think 2025 is a proof that the gap is getting bigger. Vingegaard showed cracks (which was not typical for him previously) on Hautacam (and Combloux beforehand), but I honestly put it mostly on Narvaez' acceleration.
If he is able to eliminate the cracks, the gap isn't that big IMO.

Vingegaard is not Pogacar. I don't buy that story he can win the Giro at 90% and be at 100% in the TdF, specially when he will have a much harder competition compared to 2024 Pogacar.

Bora - Roglic or Remco or Lipo
UAE - Almeida and/or Del Toro

 

[yaco]

Looking at the profiles published by La Flamme Rouge, there is a couple of things that strikes me:

- Missed opportunities on mountain stages. Like not using Gaborisse on the stage to Gavarnie. And "wrong" side of Peyrol and no Neronne on the Le Lloran stage.
- Too many stages that could be GC relevant in the last half.

For the second point, right now stage 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19 and 20 could be GC relevant. 13 and 18 to a lesser degree, and these should rather have been replaced by other stages. Especially I miss at least one more breakaway stage like the ones Mohoric and Asgreen battled out in 2023 and Abrahamsen and Groves won this year.

In addition I miss a medium mountain stage with more and steeper climbs and not like these stages to Belfort and Orcieres where the MTF/last climb is somewhat like 6 %.

A GC day can also be a break day.

 

[YavorD]

Vingegaard is not Pogacar. I don't buy that story he can win the Giro at 90% and be at 100% in the TdF, specially when he will have a much harder competition compared to 2024 Pogacar.

Bora - Roglic or Remco or Lipo
UAE - Almeida and/or Del Toro

He can beat Del Toro on 80%, unless he improves. Roglic and Evenepoel are both likely to not be competitive (because of various of reasons) and only Almeida could give him a trouble. But even then he may not need to go deep.

 

[James M]

But if we both agree that Vingegaard is (much) better that what he showed on Hautacam, I would say based on everything we saw during the Tour 1.30 on Lipowitz, that would put him 50 seconds behind Pogacar. And that's over 12 kilometres.

Was it Algarve or PN where he got dropped by Almeida that makes you think that? Combloux and Hautacam. It seems like every time the road goes uphill, half the time he has a 'bad' day now?

Compared to 2022/2023, when he easily dropped anyone not named Pogacar in nearly every race, it's not hard to recognize that Vingegaard has struggled throughout 2025 relative to his usual level vs others. The trajectory this year points downward. He can change it and he needs to thats all I'll say..

 

[Peyroteo94]

He can beat Del Toro on 80%, unless he improves. Roglic and Evenepoel are both likely to not be competitive (because of various of reasons) and only Almeida could give him a trouble. But even then he may not need to go deep.

I don't agree but we will probably see in 8 months if he is able to win the TdF

 

[CyclistAbi]

This is sad to read.

'It's a Tour in crescendo' – 2026 Tour de France designed to limit early Tadej Pogačar dominance

'I imagine that when Pogačar sees L'Alpe d'Huez twice, he'll want to win up there' says race director Chirstian Prudhomme

www.cyclingnews.com

The underlying idea behind it likely is to bring Rogla closer, for magic to happen.