Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[richo36]

I think andy is a real contender now. Without contador there he actually stands a chance. Only really samu and evans can keep up with him in the mountains. Which "if" he goes hard enough in the mountains he can probaly drop both of them. However he does have to make up minutes from the 2 TT.

Evans is without a doubt the favourite now. Going to be interesting.

p.s. I was looking forward to seeing contador with his giro form at the tour, would of been epic, however i agree with the decision.

 

[The Hitch]

I think andy is a real contender now. Without contador there he actually stands a chance. Only really samu and evans can keep up with him in the mountains. Which "if" he goes hard enough in the mountains he can probaly drop both of them. However he does have to make up minutes from the 2 TT.

Evans is without a doubt the favourite now. Going to be interesting.

p.s. I was looking forward to seeing contador with his giro form at the tour, would of been epic, however i agree with the decision.

This poster watches and understands cycling

 

[richo36]

This poster watches and understands cycling

sarcasm???? or are you being serious

 

[The Hitch]

sarcasm???? or are you being serious

Im being serious. well Im joking slightly too but im not being sarcastic.

You recognized Samu as a contender and great climber. Many people are reluctant to mention him but those like me and you who have watched and paid attention to cycling, know his name deserves to be on the list at the very least.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I think andy is a real contender now. Without contador there he actually stands a chance. Only really samu and evans can keep up with him in the mountains. Which "if" he goes hard enough in the mountains he can probaly drop both of them. However he does have to make up minutes from the 2 TT.

Evans is without a doubt the favourite now. Going to be interesting.

p.s. I was looking forward to seeing contador with his giro form at the tour, would of been epic, however i agree with the decision.

What about Menchov, van den Broeck, Nibali and Velits???

 

[richo36]

Im being serious. well Im joking slightly too but im not being sarcastic.

You recognized Samu as a contender and great climber. Many people are reluctant to mention him but those like me and you who have watched and paid attention to cycling, know his name deserves to be on the list at the very least.

you cant tell sometimes across the internet.

Well with no TTT i rate samu as a top contender. Its what held him back last year.

 

[richo36]

What about Menchov, van den Broeck, Nibali and Velits???

I like menchov but i think he is past his prime. He is still a contender dont get me wrong but i wouldnt put him in my top 5.

My personal opinion on van den brock is he is another year or two before reaching Full potential. I havent followed him close enough so i could be wrong.

I forgot about nibali. Nibali is a main contender as well.

I dont think velits is in the same quailty as nibali, evans, andy or samu. He might be in a year or two but at the moment i think he is a 2nd tier gc guy.

I left out wiggins cos he cant climb as well and ireally dont know how sky will work the tour.

 

[The Barb]

The route is so time trial heavy that I find it hard to see Andy Schleck even getting on the podium.

Heck, I even think Tony Martin could make the podium.

I think it's between Evans and Wiggins if they both make it there in good health. I'm just kicking myself for not backing Wiggins at the 20-1 price sportingbet.com had him at a few months ago. Still, I did get Cadel at 7.50 so happy enough about that.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think andy is a real contender now. Without contador there he actually stands a chance. Only really samu and evans can keep up with him in the mountains. Which "if" he goes hard enough in the mountains he can probaly drop both of them. However he does have to make up minutes from the 2 TT.

Evans is without a doubt the favourite now. Going to be interesting.

p.s. I was looking forward to seeing contador with his giro form at the tour, would of been epic, however i agree with the decision.

while I agree samu is genrally underrated, if evans can keep up with schleck then I assure you others can also.

There are many good climbers who have at least been on par with evans in past, but I suppose crashes and not riding the 2011 tour dictates one as a lesser climber.

If evans wins, it will be in the ITT again btw and holding on in the mountains.
Obviously it is a tactic that works, so who can blame him.

 

[Swede1]

I like menchov but i think he is past his prime. He is still a contender dont get me wrong but i wouldnt put him in my top 5.

My personal opinion on van den brock is he is another year or two before reaching Full potential. I havent followed him close enough so i could be wrong.

I forgot about nibali. Nibali is a main contender as well.

I dont think velits is in the same quailty as nibali, evans, andy or samu. He might be in a year or two but at the moment i think he is a 2nd tier gc guy.

I left out wiggins cos he cant climb as well and ireally dont know how sky will work the tour.

Nibbles is definitely not on the same level as evans and andy. He is a 2nd tier gc rider. I consider Menchov to be a 1st tier gc rider when he is in good form (2009 giro, 2010 tour) he is very very good. Basso, Samu, and Wiggo are all half a level behind those riders but it depends on the route. It seems to me that JVDB has reached his potential with top 5 in the tour. He hasnt ever just ridden away from the other gc riders to show any more potential.

 

[Wigwan]

Martin will go easy on the montains this year. With the Olympic Games just a weak after, he would not want to lose any energy just to be in a possible top 10..

 

[Boeing]

Is it official he can ride the Vuelta?

I doubt it, but if he could it would be like unleashing the New Zealand All Blacks World Cup Rugby squad onto the Yorkshire Under 13's local championship.

entertaining just to see how big the win

Or like unleashing Wales on Ireland

 

[orangerider]

I'd say extra motivation factor will go far for Evans and Menchov, both whom probably feel inferior to Contador but now have no need to worry for in 2012. Andy Schleck, no difference - he still ain't serious or hungry enough to win.

 

[42x16ss]

I'd say extra motivation factor will go far for Evans and Menchov, both whom probably feel inferior to Contador but now have no need to worry for in 2012. Andy Schleck, no difference - he still ain't serious or hungry enough to win.

I don't get this instant dismissal of Andy Schleck. He managed to come second quite comfortably on a similar parcours in 2009. There might be more ITT miles this year, but there is no TTT against a stupendously strong opposition like there was in 2009 when Astana obliterated the field.

If Andy Schleck can finish on the podium on a parcours like the one in 2009 then he will be up there again in 2012, especially with the team he'll have backing him up.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Can we start another one of these threads now that AC is gone and have a poll with some new options? WE did have a poll in another thread but now that circumstances have changed it would show a different result.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Can we start another one of these threads now that AC is gone and have a poll with some new options? WE did have a poll in another thread but now that circumstances have changed it would show a different result.

sounds like a winner. i'm game

 

[Afrank]

I don't get this instant dismissal of Andy Schleck. He managed to come second quite comfortably on a similar parcours in 2009. There might be more ITT miles this year, but there is no TTT against a stupendously strong opposition like there was in 2009 when Astana obliterated the field.

If Andy Schleck can finish on the podium on a parcours like the one in 2009 then he will be up there again in 2012, especially with the team he'll have backing him up.

He's going to have to do a lot of early attacking and trying to get a gap on the early mountains in the stages, and with guy's like Cancellara, Kloden, Horner, Voigt etc. it would be a good move to put a couple of them in a break and have him solo up to them.
If he could do that a couple times then I could see him having a chance of making the podium.

 

[auscyclefan94]

sounds like a winner. i'm game

i'll go for it

 

[movingtarget]

Evans and Menchov to fight it out and Andy Schleck will miss the podium. Big improver will be Rolland.

 

[El Pistolero]

I'm going for Samuel Sanchez or Jurgen van den Broeck

Don't care if it's practically impossible.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I'm going for Samuel Sanchez or Jurgen van den Broeck

Don't care if it's practically impossible.

The route suits Sanchez. To say it's practically impossible for him to win is overstating things a bit, IMO.

 

[EddytheBoss]

No doubt in my mind.. Evans

 

[Swede1]

Evans and Menchov to fight it out and Andy Schleck will miss the podium. Big improver will be Rolland.

I doubt Rolland will be better than last year. Or if he does then I fear this conversation will be moved to the clinic about a month after the Tour. I don't think he can TT well enough to pull out a top 10 this year. Although of course I would like to see him do well and finally be the full fledged French GT contender that has been missing for too long.

 

[The Hitch]

I doubt Rolland will be better than last year. Or if he does then I fear this conversation will be moved to the clinic about a month after the Tour. I don't think he can TT well enough to pull out a top 10 this year. Although of course I would like to see him do well and finally be the full fledged French GT contender that has been missing for too long.

A french rider podiumed the Giro last year. Theres your french gt contender.

 

[Fetisoff]

A french rider podiumed the Giro last year. Theres your french gt contender.

Better watch out, LaFlorecita is going to scratch your eyes out (metaphorically speaking).

Anyway, I guess he's riding Giro again this year, isn't he?