Tour de France - rest day1 round up

[Spaniard]

If Andy don't beat an injured and weak Contador with a stronger team and a gap of 1:30 he will never win a TDF.

By other hand if Contador win the whole thing (I don't think he can), it will make me more happy than the Football World Cup

Anyone for the win but Schleck bros

 

[Jamsque]

Cyclocosm has gone and done the leg-work none of us could be bothered doing.

He looked at the abandon rate after 9 stages, going back to 1997. Voila:

That's percentage of the peloton abandoned on the y-axis.

So you can see that this year is not anomalous at all; it's roughly the same as last year, a bit less than 2007, and a lot less than 2003 and 1998. The interesting point that he makes is that when the Tour has started with 180 riders the attrition rate after nine stages averages 5.7%, but when it starts with 198 riders the average is nearly twice that at 11.1%. Obviously 15 years is not the hugest sample size but that's a very large discrepancy, and it would seem to suggest that either smaller teams or fewer teams is the way to go to reduce crashes.

 

[rainman]

This tour has been emaciated with the loss of so many big names. and this is just the first week.

Shocking to see the list of all that have withdrawn.
What will the rest of the tour look like..??

please no more injuries.

How about a 50km protest at tomorrow start?

It would protest reckless driving by media and give crash victims still in the race a chance of complete rest today and good ride in tomorrow.

Constructive criticism only please, lets be adults here.

 

[just some guy]

General classification after stage 9
1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 38:35:11
2 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:49
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:02:26
4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:29
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:37
6 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:02:38
7 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack 0:02:43
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:02:55
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:03:08
11 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:36
12 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:37
13 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:03:45
14 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:03:47
15 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:01
16 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:04:07
17 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:22
18 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne 0:04:52
19 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:53
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:05:01

as I said in the 1st post I was planning on doing ITT guess-estimate to see the time in the mountains and who ie leading now.

Out of the top 20 Tony is the best ITT with Contador as equal to him after 3 weeks - if Tony is going to top 10 he will race hard and not be in Top form for the ITT so Condator is 0


1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 38:35:11 + 3.30
2 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:49 + 2.30
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:02:26 + 45 sec
4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:29 +3.30
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:37 + 3.00
6 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:02:38 +20 sec
7 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad 1.15
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack 0:02:43 + 1.00
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:02:55 + 2.30
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:03:08 +2.00
11 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:36 1.45
12 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:37 3.30
13 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:03:45 3.00
14 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:03:47 - not going be there.
15 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:01 +2.00
16 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:04:07 + 0 sec
17 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:22 2.00
18 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne 0:04:52 +2.30
19 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:53 2.00
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:05:01 1.30

now if we take away so people from the top list who will not make it threw the mountains. Tommy V I´m not sure and I don´t see Veliets and Martain but have included them

it would look something like this.

Evans - . 0 - (.45)
Tony Martin - 2.13
Tommy V 2.45
Kloden - 2.58
Velits - 3.18
Contador - 3.32
LLS - 3.44
Andy - 4.52
Fränk - 5.04
Gesink - 5.16
Tommy D - 5.23
Sammy - 5.43
Roache - 6.00
CVV - 6.12
Cunego - 6.18
Rein 6.33

Ps maths might be a bit screwed ( couple of seconds )the whole Evans 1st but Contador as best ITT time thingy

People will say of course that Andy and Fränk are much better ITT but I don´t see it - last year Andy was very good and Contador not.

So By reckoning Andy still needs to drop Contador in the mountains, while Evans is on the top I believe Andy and Contador will have made that time up before the Alps and maybe I was a bit too generous with his ITT form - Where Fränk will end up ? How bad the Injuries are for Kloden and Gesink. I Still don´t see Tony and Velits being top 10 but through weight of lost GC guy they might but bottom 6-10

Thoughts ?

 

[dlwssonic]

How about a 50km protest at tomorrow start?

It would protest reckless driving by media and give crash victims still in the race a chance of complete rest today and good ride in tomorrow.

Constructive criticism only please, lets be adults here.

I think we all have enough of this protesting and neutralizing

 

[dlwssonic]

contador wont gain 3min on andy at the end of a 3 week race and on a hillier course. I think more around 1min-1.30min MAX.

 

[Cimber]

contador wont gain 3min on andy at the end of a 3 week race and on a hillier course. I think more around 1min-1.30min MAX.

I would say 40sec-1min. And probably even less with a knee injury. I think Andrew will take time on Contador on Luz Ardiden due to the knee injury. For me there is only Evans left to challenge the brothers. All other favorites are gone or have injuries.

 

[Cimber]

Oh btw I forgot Klöden on my last. He also crashed yesterday and is injured. FFS.

 

[dlwssonic]

I would say 40sec-1min. And probably even less with a knee injury. I think Andrew will take time on Contador on Luz Ardiden due to the knee injury. For me there is only Evans left to challenge the brothers. All other favorites are gone or have injuries.

agreed. schleck must attack on luz ardiden as contador is still recovering from an injury and has mediocore form. however we have to see if contador improves. but its very unlikely he will win now. Im a bit scared that cuddles will lose some time on the mountains. but never ever count out cadel he is a fighter.

 

[davis_123]

1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 38:35:11 + 3.30
2 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:49 + 2.30
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:02:26 + 45 sec
4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:29 +3.30
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:37 + 3.00
6 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:02:38 +20 sec
7 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad 1.15
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack 0:02:43 + 1.00
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:02:55 + 2.30
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:03:08 +2.00
11 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:36 1.45
12 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:37 3.30
13 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:03:45 3.00
14 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:03:47 - not going be there.
15 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:01 +2.00
16 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:04:07 + 0 sec
17 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:22 2.00
18 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne 0:04:52 +2.30
19 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:53 2.00
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:05:01 1.30


Thoughts ?

No way will Evans lose 45 seconds to contador in a 45km ITT, more likely Evans will gain then lose time provided he is racing for a top 3 finish.

 

[dlwssonic]

No way will Evans lose 45 seconds to contador in a 45km ITT, more likely Evans will gain then lose time provided he is racing for a top 3 finish.

Im a huge cadel fan. But gotta be a bit realistic about that. its likely cuddles will lose time to a fit contador however it wont be that much.

 

[rainman]

How about a 50km protest at tomorrow start?

It would protest reckless driving by media and give crash victims still in the race a chance of complete rest today and good ride in tomorrow.

Constructive criticism only please, lets be adults here.

Guess there is no way, the days inter sprint is after just 37.5 km.
Should make an interesting start.

Still feel the media car incident yesterday should not be forgotten.

 

[ILOVEMTB]

I think that if Cadel could go into final TT less than 2 minutes behind Andy and about even with Alberto he would feel quietly confident of a the GC win, however it will be difficult for him to stay that close. with the 4 MTF's to come I think he can affored to loose 30sec's on each, but i fear he will loose 1:30-3:00 on 1 stage and around 30sec's on each of the other 3.
My top 5-
1-Andy
2-Alberto +0:25
3-Cadel +1:05
4-Frank +1:30
5-Basso +1:45
As you can see I think top 5 will be very close!
PS, I am a Cadel fan but also realistic.

 

[Sylvester]

De Weert is certainly going to be in the top 20 come the end of the Tour. Top 15, maybe even 9th or 10th if things keep going well. He's looking very strong.

 

[Bavarianrider]

General classification after stage 9
1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 38:35:11
2 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:49
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:02:26
4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:29
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:37
6 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:02:38
7 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack 0:02:43
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:02:55
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:03:08
11 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:36
12 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:37
13 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:03:45
14 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:03:47
15 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:01
16 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:04:07
17 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:22
18 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne 0:04:52
19 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:53
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:05:01

as I said in the 1st post I was planning on doing ITT guess-estimate to see the time in the mountains and who ie leading now.

Out of the top 20 Tony is the best ITT with Contador as equal to him after 3 weeks - if Tony is going to top 10 he will race hard and not be in Top form for the ITT so Condator is 0


1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 38:35:11 + 3.30
2 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:49 + 2.30
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:02:26 + 45 sec
4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:29 +3.30
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:37 + 3.00
6 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:02:38 +20 sec
7 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad 1.15
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack 0:02:43 + 1.00
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:02:55 + 2.30
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:03:08 +2.00
11 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:36 1.45
12 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:37 3.30
13 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:03:45 3.00
14 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:03:47 - not going be there.
15 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:01 +2.00
16 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:04:07 + 0 sec
17 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:22 2.00
18 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne 0:04:52 +2.30
19 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:53 2.00
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:05:01 1.30

now if we take away so people from the top list who will not make it threw the mountains. Tommy V I´m not sure and I don´t see Veliets and Martain but have included them

it would look something like this.

Evans - . 0 - (.45)
Tony Martin - 2.13
Tommy V 2.45
Kloden - 2.58
Velits - 3.18
Contador - 3.32
LLS - 3.44
Andy - 4.52
Fränk - 5.04
Gesink - 5.16
Tommy D - 5.23
Sammy - 5.43
Roache - 6.00
CVV - 6.12
Cunego - 6.18
Rein 6.33

Ps maths might be a bit screwed ( couple of seconds )the whole Evans 1st but Contador as best ITT time thingy

People will say of course that Andy and Fränk are much better ITT but I don´t see it - last year Andy was very good and Contador not.

So By reckoning Andy still needs to drop Contador in the mountains, while Evans is on the top I believe Andy and Contador will have made that time up before the Alps and maybe I was a bit too generous with his ITT form - Where Fränk will end up ? How bad the Injuries are for Kloden and Gesink. I Still don´t see Tony and Velits being top 10 but through weight of lost GC guy they might but bottom 6-10

Thoughts ?

Tony will toast AC in the TT don't fool yourself.
This isn't 09 anymore. Conatdor is no where near the TT form he had in 09.

 

[Winterfold]

Looking less and less likely that Andy won't win.

He'll choke - just like at LBL when that nasty man Phil worked him and his brother over.

Berty is even meaner and nastier, he doesnt wait when you fluff gear changes and will be no Hippocratacus (LOL at whoever posted that first) around to look after them in the big mountains.

 

[Ferminal]

@CyclingCentral reporting that Contador is in serious trouble with his knee.

 

[Cimber]

@CyclingCentral reporting that Contador is in serious trouble with his knee.

Ye I have heard that too, hwich is why I dont count him in anymore.

 

[dlwssonic]

He'll choke - just like at LBL when that nasty man Phil worked him and his brother over.

Berty is even meaner and nastier, he doesnt wait when you fluff gear changes and will be no Hippocratacus (LOL at whoever posted that first) around to look after them in the big mountains.

if andy does choke. evans has a great chance to win. contador is probably out for the win because he reportedly has serious problems with his knee.

 

[Spaniard]

@CyclingCentral reporting that Contador is in serious trouble with his knee.

I have checked as and marca and didn't find anything regardless that, but in case that's true he should stop and prepare the Vuelta instead.

 

[T-Nielsen]

It is certainly not good news about Contadors knee, but let us not put to much into it yet. Until I see any weaknes (which I have not), then I will take it into account. He always talks up his tiredness, sickness, injuries etc. in order to downplay his chances. Usually he feels bad until he attacks in style.

 

[Kazistuta]

1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 38:35:11 + 3.30
2 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:49 + 2.30
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:02:26 + 45 sec
4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:29 +3.30
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:37 + 3.00
6 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:02:38 +20 sec
7 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad 1.15
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack 0:02:43 + 1.00
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:02:55 + 2.30
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:03:08 +2.00
11 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:36 1.45
12 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:37 3.30
13 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:03:45 3.00
14 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:03:47 - not going be there.
15 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:01 +2.00
16 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:04:07 + 0 sec
17 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:22 2.00
18 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne 0:04:52 +2.30
19 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:53 2.00
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:05:01 1.30

(...)

Evans - . 0 - (.45)
Tony Martin - 2.13
Tommy V 2.45
Kloden - 2.58
Velits - 3.18
Contador - 3.32
LLS - 3.44
Andy - 4.52
Fränk - 5.04
Gesink - 5.16
Tommy D - 5.23
Sammy - 5.43
Roache - 6.00
CVV - 6.12
Cunego - 6.18
Rein 6.33

Ps maths might be a bit screwed ( couple of seconds )the whole Evans 1st but Contador as best ITT time thingy

(...)

Thoughts ?

Thanks for taking your time to do the estimates, but your time for Evans is wrong. If you assume Tony Martin will lose 20 sec.'s to Contador in Grenoble and Evans will lose 45 sec's, then Martin should be in the lead as he currently is just 12 sec's after Evans. It also changes the whole top10 time difference to compare with. Based on your estimates, the GC would look like this (removed Gilbert for obvious reasons):

Martin 0.00
Evans + 0.13
Voeckler + 0.32
Klöden + 0.45
Velits + 0.55
Contador + 1.09
LL Sanchez + 1.21
Fuglsang + 2.10
Basso + 2.23
A Schleck + 2.39
F Schleck + 3.01
Gesink + 3.03
Danielson + 3.24
S Sanchez + 3.33

Still, Evans in a favorable position, but not with that large an advantage as first pointed out.

 

[Anonymous]

Cyclocosm has gone and done the leg-work none of us could be bothered doing.

He looked at the abandon rate after 9 stages, going back to 1997. Voila:

That's percentage of the peloton abandoned on the y-axis.

So you can see that this year is not anomalous at all; it's roughly the same as last year, a bit less than 2007, and a lot less than 2003 and 1998. The interesting point that he makes is that when the Tour has started with 180 riders the attrition rate after nine stages averages 5.7%, but when it starts with 198 riders the average is nearly twice that at 11.1%. Obviously 15 years is not the hugest sample size but that's a very large discrepancy, and it would seem to suggest that either smaller teams or fewer teams is the way to go to reduce crashes.

but it includes doping withdrawals (festina/astana), and it includes retirments (non-injury in 2003) then the tour visited the alps in wk1. So the figures are pretty much usuless as an accurate study.

They need to re-do it showing riders who actually withdrew through injury, not after being evicted for doping, or failing to make the time cut on alpe d'huez. At the moment all the graph does is highlight doping scandals

 

[Cimber]

"Contador appears normal on the bike but knee swollen. Hurt it early in the tour aggravated it yesterday"

 

[AussieGoddess]

I still think Contador is a force to be reckoned with .... and will still win Le Tour.

Waiting patiently for Luz Ardiden