Tour De France - Top 3 finish

[cauberg1999]

froome will win quite comfortably and break up opposition with a 500 meters out-of-saddle attack at first mountain finish. alberto and alejandro will compete final top 3

 

[Parrulo]

The 2 obvious podium finishers are Froome and AC

Valverde will beat Nibali for 3rd, I think. He's a better climber and better at the cobbles aswell (just doesn't have a team to support him on that stage).

Outsiders for Podium:
Costa - he needs to lift his level a bit but it's doable
JVDB - if he keeps his Dauphine form, he will make the top 5 atleast.
Horner - it's a wild shot given lack of recent results, but if he's in last year's form he can podium.

Top 10 candidates:
Talansky, Mollema, Van Garderen, Betancur.
If they are allowed to partly ride their own race, Fuglsang and Kreuziger look as rock solid top 10'ers aswell. Won't mention Porte as he currently looks like someone who shouldn't even be in SKY's TdF-squad.

Costa is an outsider for a top 5 position and even that is a bit too far fetched. He was climbing really well on the last week of last years Tour but i don't think he can do it regularly enough to finish for a top 5, so he will probably end around 6-10th.

Valverde will mess it up somewhere like he always does.

I think Nibali will finish 3rd and Contador and Froome will fight for 1st.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Froome losing time on the cobbles to Contador.

 

[whittashau]

It never ceases to amaze me how quick people are to ignore Nibali's talents. I really can't see him finishing outside the top three

 

[Jelantik]

Contador
Froome
Valverde/Nibali

and the rest.

 

[orangerider]

Contador
Valverde
Froome

Froome will do fine in the mountains but lose time on the flats in a split.

 

[Pricey_sky]

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. JVDB - this year is his year to finally podium, he had a quiet spring but maybe now is going to have a good peak in July.

4. Nibali
5. Valverde
6. Tejay

 

[SeriousSam]

Froome. He will effortlessly eviscerate the competition in the MTF and the ITT except for Contador. Cracking Contador will take a lot of hard work but it will be brutal when it happens, think Ventoux 2013.

Contador, provided he doesn't completely burn out trying to hold Froome's wheel.

Valverde. I think he's stronger than Nibali.

 

[hiero2]

I think Nibali has a good chance of cracking. The pressure is on - and it isn't really, imo, the race that suits his strengths.

Nibali in the top 5.

Contador - for the past couple of years, it has seemed impossible for AC to find his rythym. But the pressure is on for him, too. And, the team situation has been stable for a couple of years now - which is to the good. Some folks get left behind by too many changes in their routine. I like what I've seen in the Dauphine. But I wouldn't bet on him yet for the top 3. I would LIKE to see him take the whole enchilada. Not sure it can happen. I want to see how he proceeds in the Dauphine before I say more.

Froome - I'd like to see him relegated to 11th. But that won't happen. He has to be the odds-on fav to win it. {booooo, hisssssss}

The cobbles. You know - the whole applecart can get upset on the cobble stages. I am not keen on the danger they add, but they DO add another level of complexity to the race formula.

I would not be surprised if we see a 3 out of 5 lesser touted riders in the top five. Like Kelderman. etc.

I am not sure that Quintana has what it takes for the TdF either - like Nibali and others - he is overly much a climber and man for the mountain stages.

Meh, it will probably turn out like others are predicting - Froome, Contador, Nibali.

But I'm not convinced that is the most likely result yet. Maybe I'm just an optimist.

 

[karlboss]

The same 4 names keep coming up and realistically you couldn't add another. If you're actually think who else in some weird set of circumstances could supplant one of them, Porte if he miraculously finds his 2013 form, Horner if he miraculously finds his Vuelta form, Wiggins if he makes the team and the racing is negative and Kreuziger riding as a faithful dom, but misfortune upsets 2 of the top 4. Beyond that I can't see anyone else near them. There are a host of good riders who'll fill out the top 10, but like last year there's quite the gulf between the top few and everyone else.

 

[42x16ss]

The same 4 names keep coming up and realistically you couldn't add another.

Pretty much. I'm expecting time gaps between the podium and the rest of the field to be similar to the '07 tour. This is how I have it:

Froome vs Contador (can go either way)


Nibali
Valverde






























Everyone else

 

[Archibald]

Pretty much. I'm expecting time gaps between the podium and the rest of the field to be similar to the '07 tour. This is how I have it:

Froome vs Contador (can go either way)


Nibali
Valverde






























Everyone else

what he said, except there'll be more space between Nibali and Valverde, and maybe a few in between the "Everyone else" and valverde

 

[greenedge]

TJVG as a podium contender and maybe Talansky too.

Still think one of Nibali or Valverde will get 3rd though.

 

[Arredondo]

Easy pick i think:

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Valverde (there has to be a point.)
4. Nibali
5. Talansky
6. JVB

 

[movingtarget]

Froome and Contador and like the Giro, third spot could be anyone. Nibali starting to look a bit shaky to grab third. Valverde has to be a chance based on his last two GTs and the bad luck involved. Others to fight for third could be Mollema, Kreuziger, VDB and Talansky. Not convinced by TJVG or Rui Costa. Rodriguez would have to be up there if he has recovered from his injuries. Porte will do too much work for Froome but even that is not looking likely at the moment. Andy Schleck to make the top 50 or drop out. Frank might do a top 20. Zubeldia will be way ahead of both of them. Top 15 maybe.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Froome and Contador and like the Giro, third spot could be anyone. Nibali starting to look a bit shaky to grab third. Valverde has to be a chance based on his last two GTs and the bad luck involved. Others to fight for third could be Mollema, Kreuziger, VDB and Talansky. Not convinced by TJVG or Rui Costa. Rodriguez would have to be up there if he has recovered from his injuries. Porte will do too much work for Froome but even that is not looking likely at the moment. Andy Schleck to make the top 50 or drop out. Frank might do a top 20. Zubeldia will be way ahead of both of them. Top 15 maybe.

Last couple of years Zubeldia has been steadily worsening, so cant se him top 20 this year to be honest

 

[barmaher]

I think Contador and Froome are closer to the others than you all seem to think. Valverde and Nibali have a good chance of winning Le Tour.

 

[indianfanboy]

Contador
Froome
Nibali

 

[senatorrick]

1. Froome (unless he crashes out)
2. Contador (unless made to leave the tour)
3.Bentancur (if he's aloud to ride)
4. Kwiat ( hopefully or better)
5. Nibali (just not as strong as he seems)

Voeckler to top 10 one last show for him

 

[Jspear]

1. Froome (unless he crashes out)
2. Contador (unless made to leave the tour)
3.Bentancur (if he's aloud to ride)
4. Kwiat ( hopefully or better)
5. Nibali (just not as strong as he seems)

Voeckler to top 10 one last show for him

Kwiat is going to perform better than Nibali?? You've got one high view of Kwiatkowski! Just curious where do you think he'll gain all his time to place 4th?

 

[senatorrick]

Kwiat is going to perform better than Nibali?? You've got one high view of Kwiatkowski! Just curious where do you think he'll gain all his time to place 4th?

I said hopefully, Nibali cannot keep up with Froome or Contador! I feel after they embarrass him he will get sick and pull out, well sadly I feel Froome is going to embarrass everyone unfortunately.

 

[Akuryo]

Kwiat is going to perform better than Nibali?? You've got one high view of Kwiatkowski! Just curious where do you think he'll gain all his time to place 4th?

Everyone else but Kwiatkowski will crash on stage 5!

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Everyone else but Kwiatkowski will crash on stage 5!

lol, but seriously the cobbles stage is great for the Hotsteppers to put the hammer down. Kwia will be able to handle Boonen going all in. Hell he can even pull himself.

No need to restrict the pace and tow somebody.

Full gas.

 

[icefire]

Everyone else but Kwiatkowski will crash on stage 5!

And he'll lose 3 minutes per HC climb in the rest of the race

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I was thinking about what I thought the top 10 would be. My first draft was this:

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Nibali
4. Valverde
5. Rodriguez
6. Van Den Broeck
7. Mollema
8. Talansky
9. Van Garderen
10. Pinot

However, there are always at least two riders who crash out, so I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 10 to determine which two riders will crash out. It came up with the numbers 2 and 9, so Contador and Van Garderen will crash out at some point. Then I remembered that there's this cobbled stage this year as well, so I decided that two riders to crash out probably isn't enough. Random.org came up with the number 8. Bye bye Talansky.

We now have this top 10:

1. Froome
2. Nibali
3. Valverde
4. Rodriguez
5. Van Den Broeck
6. Mollema
7. Pinot
8. ?
9. ?
10. ?

However, there's always at least two riders who will underperform and finish outside the top 50. I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 7: 2 and 7. Apparently Nibali and Pinot have bad form this year.

We're down to 5 riders in the top 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema

We will have to start adding some riders now. Well, we can start by adding a few super domestiques. Enter Kreuziger and Porte. Random.org chose the numbers 7 and 8 between 6 and 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. ?
8. Porte
9. ?
10. ?

Obviously there are always surprises in the top 10. I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 22 and listed the 22 participating teams alphabetically. First number was 6. That's FDJ. Procyclingstats.com currently 13 riders on FDJ's shortlist for the Tour. A number between 1 and 13, random.org? 9? Alright, that's Mourey. Next number between 1 and 22 is 15. That's Giant Shimano. They only have three riders on their shortlist. It came up 3, which is Geschke. I guess that's lucky as the other two riders were Kittel and Degenkolb.

So the preliminary top 10 is this:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. Mourey
8. Porte
9. Geschke
10. ?

Then of course there's always a 42-year old American who enters the top 10.

The final top 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. Mourey
8. Porte
9. Geschke
10. Horner

 

[nilfen]

I was thinking about what I thought the top 10 would be. My first draft was this:

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Nibali
4. Valverde
5. Rodriguez
6. Van Den Broeck
7. Mollema
8. Talansky
9. Van Garderen
10. Pinot

However, there are always at least two riders who crash out, so I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 10 to determine which two riders will crash out. It came up with the numbers 2 and 9, so Contador and Van Garderen will crash out at some point. Then I remembered that there's this cobbled stage this year as well, so I decided that two riders to crash out probably isn't enough. Random.org came up with the number 8. Bye bye Talansky.

We now have this top 10:

1. Froome
2. Nibali
3. Valverde
4. Rodriguez
5. Van Den Broeck
6. Mollema
7. Pinot
8. ?
9. ?
10. ?

However, there's always at least two riders who will underperform and finish outside the top 50. I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 7: 2 and 7. Apparently Nibali and Pinot have bad form this year.

We're down to 5 riders in the top 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema

We will have to start adding some riders now. Well, we can start by adding a few super domestiques. Enter Kreuziger and Porte. Random.org chose the numbers 7 and 8 between 6 and 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. ?
8. Porte
9. ?
10. ?

Obviously there are always surprises in the top 10. I asked random.org to pick two numbers between 1 and 22 and listed the 22 participating teams alphabetically. First number was 6. That's FDJ. Procyclingstats.com currently 13 riders on FDJ's shortlist for the Tour. A number between 1 and 13, random.org? 9? Alright, that's Mourey. Next number between 1 and 22 is 15. That's Giant Shimano. They only have three riders on their shortlist. It came up 3, which is Geschke. I guess that's lucky as the other two riders were Kittel and Degenkolb.

So the preliminary top 10 is this:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. Mourey
8. Porte
9. Geschke
10. ?

Then of course there's always a 42-year old American who enters the top 10.

The final top 10:

1. Froome
2. Valverde
3. Rodriguez
4. Van Den Broeck
5. Mollema
6. Kreuziger
7. Mourey
8. Porte
9. Geschke
10. Horner

Can't beat "science" - I'll be placing my bets now!